What the hell is wrong with Giolito?

[ron883]

Did he put on too much muscle mass? Did he lose too much on his fastball? Is he not using the change enough? Does he choke against good teams? Jimmy brings up a good point. What are fans so worried about resigning him when he isn't that good this year?

 

[Balta1701]

spin rates for every pitch he commonly throws are at or below their 2018 levels.

[2Deep]

He has been bad!

He is throwing meatballs over the plate with low spin rates 

[caulfield12]

35 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Did he put on too much muscle mass? Did he lose too much on his fastball? Is he not using the change enough? Does he choke against good teams? Jimmy brings up a good point. What are fans so worried about resigning him when he isn't that good this year?

 

Maybe having two assets in Rodon and Giolito with little to nothing to show for them…and the likelihood of replacing their production via free agency somewhere between slim and none.

Rodon on current pace for a 5.7 fWAR over 162 games.

Giolito beginning in 2019, 5.2, 2.0 (5.4 extrapolated), 4.0=4.9 average over 3 seasons

current pace=0.5226 fWAR

Difference of ten victories for those two alone.

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by caulfield12

[Highland]

I don't know and can't say what is happening with Giolito this season. I do know I keep hearing announcers saying he is doing well considering he doesn't have his stuff that day. Maybe he hasn't had his stuff all year? Right now, I don't think we can count on him like we once did.

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

spin rates for every pitch he commonly throws are at or below their 2018 levels.

Josh Donaldson, wrong on racism. right on Sticky Stuff?

 

[Kyyle23]

It very well could have been the sticky stuff.  I thought mlb was going to be allowing them to use an approved version of that this season, which wasn't as adhesive as the spidertack but moreso than rosin 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

He hasn’t been the same since he had Covid. Throw in the injury earlier in the season, and his massive bulk up in the offseason, I think there’s a lot of factors that have forced him to compensate.

[harkness99]

he has an average fastball and nothing else thats biting

 

so he getting hammered

[chw42]

Giolito pitched just fine with the sticky ban last year. Yes, his spin rates are down and they've been steadily going down since the sticky ban, but he had a 3.33 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 92 innings after June 21st (when the ban went into effect) last year. The lack of sticky stuff might make it so that his fastball is no longer as effective, but he did just fine without it for about 120 innings. Here is how his 2021 went pre and post sticky ban.

Pre 6/21/2021
Fastball - 2430 RPM, .225 BA, .441 SLG, 43.9%
Slider - 2174 RPM, .250 BA, .583 SLG, 17.1%
Change - 1475 RPM, .188 BA, .362 SLG, 37.5%

Post 6/21/2021
Fastball - 2272 RPM, .270 BA, .416 SLG, 43.8%
Slider - 1943 RPM, .187 BA, .245 SLG, 25.2%
Change - 1511 RPM, .259 BA, .411 SLG, 26.9%

Giolito really had to adjust his pitching style after the ban. His fastball and slider spin rate went down by a lot. His fastball/change combo was no longer his bread and butter without the high spin rate on his fastball, as teams could sit on the change up more. He went with his slider a lot more and it was arguably his best pitch post ban. But he adjusted fine and was still considered a very good, if not elite, starting pitcher.
 

2022 has been rocky for Giolito with an injury on opening day and then COVID in early May. I've seen a lot of people talk about how he hasn't been the same since COVID, so I decided to take a look at the splits. He returned from COVID on 5/18 and here are his numbers pre/post. 

Pre 5/18/2022
Fastball - 2170 RPM, .200 BA, .472 SLG, 48.6%, 93.1 MPH
Slider - 1980 RPM, .400 BA, .650 SLG, 19.9%
Change - 1426 RPM, .120 BA, .160 SLG, 23.6%

Post 5/18/2022
Fastball - 2155 RPM, .365 BA, .519 SLG, 48.2%, 93.3 MPH
Slider - 1954 RPM, .234 BA, .553 SLG, 28.3%
Change - 1402 RPM, .385 BA, .642 SLG, 21.7%

One thing that jumps out at you is just how bad his change up has been in his past 6 starts. It was easily his best pitch results-wise in his first 5 starts. Just from watching Giolito pitch recently, it's stuck out to me that his slider has been getting hit really hard. He's given up 4 homers off hanging sliders in his past 4 starts alone and I can actually remember all of them without looking it up. And yet, that's his been his best pitch since 5/18 because his fastball and change up have been god awful. He's also upped the usage on the slider by about 8% (mostly by ditching the curveball), so more sliders = more probability he hangs one once in a while.

So what the hell happened to Giolito's fastball and change up combo? It was once one of the best pitch combos in baseball and it's now extremely below average. I don't think it's the velocity that's the issue here. He's throwing harder since his bout with COVID. His spin rates, while down a little, aren't down enough to make you think that's the main issue. I think the main issue is his control on both pitches. Here's the heatmaps for his fastball with pre COVID on the left and post COVID on the right. 

Fastball

 

His fastball control has been erratic ever since coming off the COVID list. He was around the zone more often than not in his first 5 starts of the year, but he has since been just about everywhere with his fastball. His 40% CSW rate (called strike and whiffs) has decreased to just 32%. He's also gone from throwing 26% balls to nearly 39%. The lack of fastball control really hurt him last night in the 6th when he fell behind every hitter and had to throw his fastball in the zone in fastball counts. Speaking of fastballs in the zone, Giolito has gotten killed on them since 5/18. Here are those numbers.

Pre 5/18/2022
Fastball heart - .278 BA, 16%
Fastball shadow - .160 BA, 22%

Post 5/18/2022
Fastball heart - .500 BA, 13.2%
Fastball shadow - .304 BA, 20%

Just for reference, the heart is basically in the middle of the plate, a few inches inside the corners of the zone. The shadow is the area around the edge of the zone. The league average on heart fastballs is .299. The league average on shadow fastballs is .223.

So either his fastball is now one of the worst in the league or he's getting extremely unlucky. A little unlucky, maybe. His xBA on his fastballs since 5/18 is about 60 points lower than his actual BA on them, but I'm not sure that's the entirety of the problem. I alluded to him getting behind in the zone and having to throw his fastball in the zone in fastball counts earlier, and weirdly enough, he's thrown less fastballs in the zone since 5/18 than prior. All this points to his fastball just being less effective overall. He's throwing it faster, he's throwing it less in the heart of the zone, but when he's throwing it there, it's getting clobbered. It's a bit astounding that even his fastball in the shadow of the zone is being hit at a .300 clip, when that should be a pitch that gets hit for about .200. 

Without his ability to establish the fastball, his change up has suffered as well results-wise. But he's also not locating it as well. Here are his change up heat maps, the left is prior to COVID and the right is after. 

Change

He's throwing the change up a lot less in the zone. He used to throw it inside to right handers and outside to lefties, but he's more or less just throwing them low and out of the zone. If he's behind a hitter, that's probably a pitch they end up laying off as opposed to swinging at. And that's more or less what batters have done as the whiff rate on his change up has decreased from 30% to just 10%. They're also taking the pitch about 4% more for balls. His CSW% is also down from 40% to 25%. 

TLDR: his fastball and change up are crap now. His fastball is all over the place and when he throws it in the zone, it gets crushed. He's also getting behind in the count more due to lack of good fastball control. Hitters are laying off his change up and they're also hitting it hard when he does throw a hittable one. His slider has been hit hard for homers, but has more or less been his best pitch. Although that's not saying much since his fastball and change up have been horrendously bad since coming back from COVID. 

How do you fix him? Get his fastball command back. The more counts he's ahead in, the more he can use the slider and change up more effectively and the less he has to throw the fastball in fastball counts. I think the days of Lucas having an elite fastball are over. He just needs it to be league average or serviceable. That hasn't been the case in the past 6 starts and that's why he's been getting clobbered. 

[zisk]

Hasn't this happened to him every year for a month or so? Not gonna freak out yet.

[Chick Mercedes]

“Muscle mass”

[ThatBallHitDeep_WAYBack]

https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1507114541494288385?s=21&t=0MPntdqu9cAF8zamp4rK_w
 

ChiSox did their part and brought in his request for pitching coach.  What does Gio do in return?  Rejects a very FAIR (in no planet is he a ~ 6 year $150M+ like he thinks) extension and no longer is a 4+ pitch pitcher. Please get back to a repertoire as we all saw last night HOU sat on 2 pitches all game.  BTW - in 11 starts, “ace” Giolito has gone 6.0 IP or more 4 times: 

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, chw42 said:

Giolito pitched just fine with the sticky ban last year. Yes, his spin rates are down and they've been steadily going down since the sticky ban, but he had a 3.33 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 92 innings after June 21st (when the ban went into effect) last year. The lack of sticky stuff might make it so that his fastball is no longer as effective, but he did just fine without it for about 120 innings. Here is how his 2021 went pre and post sticky ban.

Pre 6/21/2021
Fastball - 2430 RPM, .225 BA, .441 SLG, 43.9%
Slider - 2174 RPM, .250 BA, .583 SLG, 17.1%
Change - 1475 RPM, .188 BA, .362 SLG, 37.5%

Post 6/21/2021
Fastball - 2272 RPM, .270 BA, .416 SLG, 43.8%
Slider - 1943 RPM, .187 BA, .245 SLG, 25.2%
Change - 1511 RPM, .259 BA, .411 SLG, 26.9%

Giolito really had to adjust his pitching style after the ban. His fastball and slider spin rate went down by a lot. His fastball/change combo was no longer his bread and butter without the high spin rate on his fastball, as teams could sit on the change up more. He went with his slider a lot more and it was arguably his best pitch post ban. But he adjusted fine and was still considered a very good, if not elite, starting pitcher.
 

While I certainly can’t prove this is the cause for any player….at the start of 2022 MLB announced they were going to start much more intrusive checks if people’s equipment and hands as in ‘21 they saw a big drop In spin rate right with the ban followed by an increase over the rest of the year, and they believed that the cause was pitchers finding more subtle spots to hide stuff as the season went on.

https://www.mlb.com/news/updated-sticky-stuff-guidelines 

[chw42]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

While I certainly can’t prove this is the cause for any player….at the start of 2022 MLB announced they were going to start much more intrusive checks if people’s equipment and hands as in ‘21 they saw a big drop In spin rate right with the ban followed by an increase over the rest of the year, and they believed that the cause was pitchers finding more subtle spots to hide stuff as the season went on.

https://www.mlb.com/news/updated-sticky-stuff-guidelines 

His spin rate is down another 120 RPM since the 2nd half of last year, but he already had a 160 RPM drop from the initial ban. You think he was still using a lesser substance last year and is no longer using anything at all?

[South Side Hit Men]

35 minutes ago, ThatBallHitDeep_WAYBack said:

https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1507114541494288385?s=21&t=0MPntdqu9cAF8zamp4rK_w
 

ChiSox did their part and brought in his request for pitching coach.  What does Gio do in return?  Rejects a very FAIR (in no planet is he a ~ 6 year $150M+ like he thinks) extension and no longer is a 4+ pitch pitcher. Please get back to a repertoire as we all saw last night HOU sat on 2 pitches all game.  BTW - in 11 starts, “ace” Giolito has gone 6.0 IP or more 4 times: 

Yes, every player should make major concessions to a billionaire to enrich him further.

Lucas did the Sox a favor and recruited in their first competent pitching coach in decades, the one who worked with him on the side while he was coaching in San Francisco. The one who fixed Rodon and Cease, and developed Kopech into a starter.

The one who wouldn't be here if Dave Duncan accepted Tony's offer to be his pitching coach.  The Sox would be 20-40 under that scenario, perhaps under .500 last year.

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by South Side Hit Men

[Balta1701]

11 minutes ago, chw42 said:

His spin rate is down another 120 RPM since the 2nd half of last year, but he already had a 160 RPM drop from the initial ban. You think he was still using a lesser substance last year and is no longer using anything at all?

Or possibly he figured out the pattern of when unless were checking him and figured he could get away with using it for 3 or 4 innings a game as long as he was clean for the first and like the 5th? And more intense or random checks means he cant do that either, so that fits with the additional spin rate dropoff this year? 

[Chicago White Sox]

Unpopular opinion, but I’d look to extend him and have him de-bulk in the offseason

[ThatBallHitDeep_WAYBack]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Yes, every player should make major concessions to a billionaire to enrich him further.

Lucas did the Sox a favor and recruited in their first competent pitching coach in decades, the one who worked with him on the side while he was coaching in San Francisco. The one who fixed Rodon and Cease, and developed Kopech into a starter.

The one who wouldn't be here if Dave Duncan accepted Tony's offer to be his pitching coach.  The Sox would be 20-40 under that scenario, perhaps under .500 last year.

 

Clown post ???????

[South Side Hit Men]

2 minutes ago, ThatBallHitDeep_WAYBack said:

Clown post ???????

You have zero concept in terms of MLB player market value, or Katz' value to the White Sox. 

Don't worry, you'll get your wish when Giolito leaves next September for a much larger contract than the "FAIR" offer you are pimping.

[oldsox]

I have a very vague impression, and I don't know where it comes from, that Giolito does not particularly want to stay on White Sox.  I had the same feeling about Rodon.  I cannot back this up with anything specific.  Just a vibe.

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, oldsox said:

I have a very vague impression, and I don't know where it comes from, that Giolito does not particularly want to stay on White Sox.  I had the same feeling about Rodon.  I cannot back this up with anything specific.  Just a vibe.

The assumption has always been he’ll end up back on the Left Coast just like Garland…

[ThatBallHitDeep_WAYBack]

16 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

You have zero concept in terms of MLB player market value, or Katz' value to the White Sox. 

Don't worry, you'll get your wish when Giolito leaves next September for a much larger contract than the "FAIR" offer you are pimping.

Good - let him walk.  ?

[ThatBallHitDeep_WAYBack]

On 6/18/2022 at 6:53 PM, South Side Hit Men said:

You have zero concept in terms of MLB player market value, or Katz' value to the White Sox. 

Don't worry, you'll get your wish when Giolito leaves next September for a much larger contract than the "FAIR" offer you are pimping.

How about Giolito's start today buddy... You have zero concept of watching a game and seeing how MLB players can hit so easily when a pitcher only throws 2 pitches!!

 

 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, ThatBallHitDeep_WAYBack said:

How about Giolito's start today buddy... You have zero concept of watching a game and seeing how MLB players can hit so easily when a pitcher only throws 2 pitches!!

 

 

Jays kill sliders/cutters, taking away a go to option this year, especially against lefties…and the once pretty decent curveball long dead and buried with the over the top mechanics junked.

Now he throws from his ear like an NFL QB.

Can’t just go FB/CH when you’re losing your speed differential on those two with FB falling to 91-92 range…well off previous mid 90’s.

No weather excuses for the diminished stuff, either.