Red Wave 2022

[KrankinSox]

Hard to believe that the midterms are only just over 4 months away. I'm curious as to how big of a Red Wave we'll see in November. All indications are that a Red Wave is coming, but there is room for debate regarding just how big it'll be.

It's very common for first term presidents to lose seats in the midterms and with the Dems holding slim majorities in both the House and Senate, we are very likely to see the GOP control both after the midterms.

But how devastating will it be for the democrats? With Biden's abysmal approval ratings and the economic landscape, it's easy to see how things look dim for the democrats. That's likely why they are still clinging to the Jan 6 narrative 18 months later. It's the biggest bullet in their chamber but how big of a punch will it pack at the voting booths? Time will tell, I suppose.

I haven't taken a deep enough look at which seats are being contested in November and how that may shape the House and Senate after the midterms but my overall feeling is that the GOP will make enough gains in both to take control. 2022 Red Wave is very much alive, in my opinion.

How do you see it playing out and what factors do you think will carry the most weight?

[CentralChamps21]

This will be my first time voting, and I've come to hate this system already. An overwhelming majority of legislative seats, at both the national and state level, are "safe" seats for one of the two parties. The real contests for those seats end up being the primaries, where a tiny percentage of eligible voters actually vote, and those that vote are usually among the most extreme. On top of that, in most states primaries can be won with a plurality. In 2020, the incumbent who had been in office since before my parents were old enough to vote, retired. 14 Democrats ran in the primary to replace him. The guy who won got 33% of the vote and became the nominee. He's a young guy and can sit in that seat for 40 years if he wants to, and given the high level of improbability that he can ever win a governor or Senate race in Indiana as a Democrat, he might do that.

Does it make any sense that a guy who gets 1/3 of the votes in a primary can go on to hold a Congressional seat essentially uncontested for 4 decades?

[KrankinSox]

6 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

This will be my first time voting, and I've come to hate this system already. An overwhelming majority of legislative seats, at both the national and state level, are "safe" seats for one of the two parties. The real contests for those seats end up being the primaries, where a tiny percentage of eligible voters actually vote, and those that vote are usually among the most extreme. On top of that, in most states primaries can be won with a plurality. In 2020, the incumbent who had been in office since before my parents were old enough to vote, retired. 14 Democrats ran in the primary to replace him. The guy who won got 33% of the vote and became the nominee. He's a young guy and can sit in that seat for 40 years if he wants to, and given the high level of improbability that he can ever win a governor or Senate race in Indiana as a Democrat, he might do that.

Does it make any sense that a guy who gets 1/3 of the votes in a primary can go on to hold a Congressional seat essentially uncontested for 4 decades?

Well said. Term limits are something I'm in favor of that would help fix the problem you described.

Don't let the imperfect system discourage you from voting, though.

[CentralChamps21]

12 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

Well said. Term limits are something I'm in favor of that would help fix the problem you described.

Don't let the imperfect system discourage you from voting, though.

Term limits

Make primary day a holiday

Open primaries

ranked choice voting

[Texsox]

46 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

Well said. Term limits are something I'm in favor of that would help fix the problem you described.

Don't let the imperfect system discourage you from voting, though.

Candidates need three things to remain in office. Money from donors, organization from a party, and votes from citizens. What happens when one third to half  of elected officials are term limited and don't need votes or organization anymore? 

Be careful what you wish for. 

[Texsox]

35 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Term limits

Make primary day a holiday

Open primaries

ranked choice voting

Term limits? No for above and more reasons.

Early voting eliminates adding holidays. Most businesses would ignore the holiday so only government workers would have the day off.  Monday was a holiday. How many businesses did you see closed? 

Agreed.

Agreed.

The challenge is primaries are basically for that party's members to select a candidate. They could just have a meeting or caucus to decide. Allowing members of one party to select the candidate for the other party is kind of weird. 

 

[CentralChamps21]

14 minutes ago, Texsox said:

What happens when one third to half  of elected officials are term limited and don't need votes or organization anymore?

They act in the best interest of their country rather than in the best interest of their donors.

[Texsox]

5 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

They act in the best interest of their country rather than in the best interest of their donors.

Or they set themselves up for their next career. Line up lucrative consulting contacts, become lobbyists. Pay back their donors.

The donors will be the key to power. Candidates will not have any independent power. Without prepackaged fundraising and organization,  outsiders won't win the primary.

The only congressman and senators today that aren't dependent on their parties are the ones that have built their own base, which takes time. Once term limits are in place everyone is new, so parties and staffers will be the real sources of power, the candidates will be interchangable faces.