Retool Time

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Nobody wants any of those guys other than Abreu and Graveman. 

Players having bad seasons have minimal value. 

Go look at Grandal, Moncada and Giolito's baseball savant page. There is nothing that suggests they're about to turn it around in-season. 

Hendricks and Giolito would be your two biggest tickets.  And you left both off lol

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Hendricks and Giolito would be your two biggest tickets.  And you left both off lol

Hendriks has to actually be able to pitch before anyone is taking him on, and his contract is actually a major ding on his value as his luxury tax number is way above his salary. 

Giolito may turn this around but he’s legitimately been bad this year. People don’t give up big ticket value at the deadline for players who are struggling.

Even if you are able to move those guys, you will not be getting top level big league ready players for them.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Hendricks and Giolito would be your two biggest tickets.  And you left both off lol

I think that Hendriks is untradeable because of his contract+injury and if you've been paying attention to baseball savant, Giolito has been giving up hard contact all year but his k rate and batted ball luck was saving him early. June is regression to how he was actually pitching. 

Don't get me wrong, I think Giolito, Moncada and Grandal are good players having bad years. I just don't think they can fix their problems until the offseason. Giolito's mechanics are fucked, he said so himself and that's a hard thing to fix in season. 

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Hendriks has to actually be able to pitch before anyone is taking him on, and his contract is actually a major ding on his value as his luxury tax number is way above his salary.

Giolito may turn this around but he’s legitimately been bad this year. People don’t give up big ticket value at the deadline for players who are struggling.

I don't understand why other posters don't understand this. 

[fathom]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think that Hendriks is untradeable because of his contract+injury and if you've been paying attention to baseball savant, Giolito has been giving up hard contact all year but his k rate and batted ball luck was saving him early. June is regression to how he was actually pitching. 

Don't get me wrong, I think Giolito, Moncada and Grandal are good players having bad years. I just don't think they can fix their problems until the offseason. Giolito's mechanics are fucked, he said so himself and that's a hard thing to fix in season. 

About 11 hours ago you were trying to say Moncada looked like he was figuring things out.

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

About 11 hours ago you were trying to say Moncada looked like he was figuring things out.

Ok let me clarify. Could Moncada figure it out in-season? Yes, there are signs. 

Am I counting on it? No. 

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Ok let me clarify. Could Moncada figure it out in-season? Yes, there are signs. 

Am I counting on it? No. 

If he did show signs that he turned it around in July, he still won’t have a ton of trade value at the deadline given his multiple injuries this year and $17.8 million guaranteed next year and $30 million guaranteed for ‘24-25 counting the buyout. Someone might be willing to take on that contract, but $47.6 million guaranteed over 2 years for a 0 WAR player currently is not a valuable asset to trade.

[Jack Parkman]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If he did show signs that he turned it around in July, he still won’t have a ton of trade value at the deadline given his multiple injuries this year and $17.8 million guaranteed next year and $30 million guaranteed for ‘24-25 counting the buyout. Someone might be willing to take on that contract, but $47.6 million guaranteed over 2 years for a 0 WAR player currently is not a valuable asset to trade.

Of course. The Sox are stuck with him at least for the next 2.5 seasons. We should all hope he gets his shit together. 

The point that we've been trying to make, Balta is that the Sox not only don't have much to trade as a buyer, but they don't have much as a seller either. 

 

Listen, I love Abreu as a player. But it's time to hand over the reigns to Vaughn. The Sox have way too many DH types and clearing Abreu leaves 1B for Vaughn and DH for Eloy. Those guys should be penciled in there for next season. 

 

I think the best thing the Sox can do at this point is trim the fat and hope for the best. Just let these players play out their deals. 

Maybe we get an "everything goes right" season and they win a championship, because that's what it would take at this point. 

Edited June 30, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

37 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Hendriks has to actually be able to pitch before anyone is taking him on, and his contract is actually a major ding on his value as his luxury tax number is way above his salary. 

Giolito may turn this around but he’s legitimately been bad this year. People don’t give up big ticket value at the deadline for players who are struggling.

Even if you are able to move those guys, you will not be getting top level big league ready players for them.

Hendricks’ luxury tax number is $18M this year and next, but if his option is exercised for 2024 doesn’t it become $0 at that point?  That could be highly valuable for the right club.

[soxfan49]

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Hendricks and Giolito would be your two biggest tickets.  And you left both off lol

One is already on the Cubs.

[Balta1701]

30 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Hendricks’ luxury tax number is $18M this year and next, but if his option is exercised for 2024 doesn’t it become $0 at that point?  That could be highly valuable for the right club.

This is nuts enough that I'm happy to be wrong, but I think it's actually worse than that. As far as I can tell, the text in MLB's CBA says that the luxury tax is always "Guaranteed dollars on a person's deal divided by years remaining, calculated each year".

In that case, right now, Hendriks's contract has an $18 million luxury tax hit this year and an $18 million luxury tax hit next year, while his salary is $13.3 million this year and $14.3 million next year. This is the case because the White Sox guaranteed him $54 million total over 3 years, with some weird option work that keeps the same guaranteed dollars but could spread the last year out.

If an acquiring team picks up his option, they would do so after 2023. That means the 2023 luxury tax will already have been calculated with his tax value at $18 million. But, 2024 is independent of the 2023 calculation, so what I think actually happens is he gets paid $15 million in 2024 and his luxury tax is still $15 million.

In other words, I think Rick Hahn signed a contract that had a $54 million total valuation, but because of the screwy contract structure, I think he managed to create a contract that has a $54 million valuation and a $69 million luxury tax value.

The one place where I think this does show up in text is if you go to Spotrac and look at the White Sox for 2024 - Hendriks is listed as an option, but his luxury tax of $15 million still shows up!

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/payroll/2024/

[caulfield12]

If you’re getting lower levels minor leaguers, then what is the point in keeping Cease and Kopech since those acquisitions wouldn’t make an impact until the second half of their walk years.

They still basically have to be all in again for next season.

Sure, you can deal Giolito or Lynn, Hendriks/Graveman, Pollock for salary relief, Cueto and Abreu will bring some value…but they’re pretty much stuck with the core of the assembled roster for 2023 as well.

There’s no way you can anything resembling fair value for our struggling core players or Grandal…and you’re still being forced to put your faith in Hahn who has already screwed things up at least twice in the past decade with only two playoff disappointments to show for 3 1/2 years of fanbase patience.

[Jack Parkman]

44 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If you’re getting lower levels minor leaguers, then what is the point in keeping Cease and Kopech since those acquisitions wouldn’t make an impact until the second half of their walk years.

They still basically have to be all in again for next season.

Sure, you can deal Giolito or Lynn, Hendriks/Graveman, Pollock for salary relief, Cueto and Abreu will bring some value…but they’re pretty much stuck with the core of the assembled roster for 2023 as well.

There’s no way you can anything resembling fair value for our struggling core players or Grandal…and you’re still being forced to put your faith in Hahn who has already screwed things up at least twice in the past decade with only two playoff disappointments to show for 3 1/2 years of fanbase patience.

This is literally the worst way for the rebuild to fail. I'd rather the players never be good at all and not build false hope than have 3 good seasons and then fade away. 

[Chick Mercedes]

Fegan, via The Athletic, said second baseman Lenyn Sosa is a prospect that could be traded in the coming weeks. While trading away the promising 22-year-old might surprise some fans, Fegan said a potential move would be due to Chicago being "light on near-major-league-ready pieces."

Sosa has been absolutely crushing it in Double-A Birmingham this season. The Venezuelan phenom is tied for the Barons' team lead with 14 home runs, pacing all of his teammates with 48 RBIs as well. That isn't even to mention his .331/.384/.549 slash line and 141 total bases amassed. 

Sosa's efforts earned him a call-up to the majors just over a week ago, but it didn't go as planned. He recorded a hit, two runs and one walk in four games (12 at-bats), batting .083. Nevertheless, it's hard not to imagine him producing better than that when he's called up next. 

Parting ways with a top prospect like Sosa would be tough, but it's worth it if the return helps the White Sox return to the playoffs. The 2022 MLB trade deadline takes place at 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Aug. 2.

 

https://theathletic.com/3388169/2022/06/29/mlb-trade-deadline-moves/?source=emp_shared_article

[South Side Hit Men]

Likely didn't call Tony Sir or Legit Hall of Famer which earned Tony's wrath.

Thanks for the memories Lenyn!

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, Chick Mercedes said:

Fegan, via The Athletic, said second baseman Lenyn Sosa is a prospect that could be traded in the coming weeks. While trading away the promising 22-year-old might surprise some fans, Fegan said a potential move would be due to Chicago being "light on near-major-league-ready pieces."

 

 

https://theathletic.com/3388169/2022/06/29/mlb-trade-deadline-moves/?source=emp_shared_article

So Fegan is telling us if Sosa is traded it's because the Sox are "light on near major league ready pieces." How does this make sense? Sosa is a near major league ready piece. If he isn't then why bring him up ?

[caulfield12]

22 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

So Fegan is telling us if Sosa is traded it's because the Sox are "light on near major league ready pieces." How does this make sense? Sosa is a near major league ready piece. If he isn't then why bring him up ?

Or they’re implicitly arguing he wasn’t actually ready but they were “forced” to bring him up early due to organizational depth issues.

So they can block him again with another from outside?

Idiots.

Edited June 30, 2022 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

All right here goes. Assume there's no huge run in the next month, what does this retool look like?

Guys who would need to be traded this year: Gravemann, Lopez, Cueto. All 3 are overplaying their contract. All 3 should bring legitimate returns. Graveman will be one of the top reliever options on the market. Cueto should be an extremely interesting option for teams that need pitching but who don't have money to spend, frankly he seems like a really interesting fit for the Rays.

Guys who could be moved but it's more Controversial: Abreu, Anderson. In both cases it might be up to them - does Abreu want to play for a contender for the rest of the year? The Cubs got a guy who is currently in their top 10 prospects for Rizzo in a comparable deal, several years away but talented. There are several teams who could legitimately use Abreu right now - Houston, Boston, Minnesota could use 1b help, San Francisco, Atlanta, Cleveland, the Mets, Brewers, even the Dodgers could use DH help. Unless Anderson asks out, he's not likely to go anywhere, but he would have serious trade interest.

Guys you might be able to move to clear minor contracts: Engel, Pollock - if healthy. Might have to send along some money to move Pollock, but you could probably save a few million on his contract if you did. 

Reese McGuire: He's far pre-arbitration and on pace for a 1 WAR backup season thanks to his defense. Someone will need a backup catcher if you want to move him, but the White Sox could continue using him as well. 

Guys who have substantial trade value, but who are under control for years, and who you hope will be even better or more valuable next year: Kopech, Cease, Robert, Vaughn, Burger. There is little reason to move any of these guys as you're not likely to make the team better or cheaper by doing so, at least not this year.

The big pile of guys, guys who don't have much trade value because of either poor performance, injury, or pretty big contracts, who you might be able to move some of them, but all of them might play themselves into more value if you hold onto them: Moncada, Eloy, Giolito, Lynn, Hendriks, Sheets, Bummer.

Guys who are currently unmovable and who are unlikely to be any time soon: Leury, Harrison, Grandal, Kelly.

Space fillers: Haseley, Foster, Ruiz, Lambert, Banks, Zavala. 

If they still aren't close, then moving the main 3 pitchers, asking Abreu what he wants, and seeing if you can save some money on Pollock or Engel are the tasks for this year. Hopefully that helps restock some and maybe finds a useful piece for next year.

The issue is all the guys you really don't want to move or can't move. Right now, the White Sox have 2 choices next year. They have a whole lot of money on the books next year, and the same basic needs as this year, bullpen, LH bat, pitching help, bench. They could very well spend another $180 million next year and be in a comparable situation if some people struggle or get hurt. Alternatively, they could well be under orders to cut salary, in which case moving someone out of the expensive group (Moncada, Lynn, Hendriks) could be required. The time to decide that would be the offseason.

Every position that could be filled internally would be helpful. Get some useful pieces in the trades you have to make. Try to see what catching options you have by making sure to play Zavala some. Then, bring up Yolbert, see if he has any shot at being a utility guy for next year. If Sosa is plausibly ready, get him back up too. Give Martin a chance to replace Cueto, give Lambert a chance to see if he can be a rosterable reliever. Harrison can readily be cut in this situation, and if the manager refuses to play the youth, start cutting people.

Then in the offseason, you have a choice between trying to continue selling guys, especially if you need to cut payroll, and running it back and hoping some staff changes make a difference. Some guys are likely to play themselves into more value in the 2nd half, this will be part of the story, but it's one we can't predict right now.

[South Side Hit Men]

On 10/28/2021 at 1:02 PM, South Side Hit Men said:

I want:

• New owner, FO, Manager and staff beyond Paddy, whoever Paddy wants to keep in scouting, and Katz.
• Eloy and Mercedes for Pablo Lopez.
• Lynn; Keuchel and Kimbrel for Lux and Gonsolin.
• Grandal for Gallo.
• Burger, Collins, prospects for Willson Contreras.
• FAs Robbie Ray, Yan Gomes, Leury Garcia, plus two $2M-$4M decent RPs.
• The White Sox to shift defensively like the other 20+ competent teams.

SS Tim Anderson 3B Yoan Moncada # 1B Jose Abreu RF Joey Gallo^ CF Luis Robert DH Gavin Sheets ^C Wilson Contreras LF Andrew Vaughn 2B Gavin Lux^

Bench: Yan Gomes, Adam Engel, Leury Garcia, Luis Gonzalez.

SP: Giolito, Robbie Ray, Pablo Lopez, Kopech, Gonsolin, Cease.

RP: Liam Hendriks, Aaron Bummer, Garrett Crochet, Reynaldo Lopez, Joe Ruiz, FA, FA 

I’ll get: “Nothing and like it.”

This was my plan going into the offseason and it's the same plan as it is today. 

• Dump the FO and Clubhouse staff from the White Sox organization beyond Paddy and Katz. My preference then and now was to keep Kenny as a liaison through the end of his contract and bring in Kim Ng, or another quality outside candidate to run baseball operations.
• Dump as many overpriced veterans signed by Hahn over the past three seasons and bring in whatever quality young players you can play now.
• Massively overhaul minor league scouting and staffs across the organization, spend whatever is needed to bring in quality instructors and other relevant staff to develop players consistently and properly throughout the organization, to allow the Sox a sustained window of competitiveness they have not had since Larry Himes assembled the 1990s core and was shit-canned for his efforts, because cronyism always trumps competency in a Reinsdorf organization.

Would the Sox new GM/VP been able to close on all of the deals above? Likely no.

Would the Sox have been a better position to target younger solid players who can contribute now, and dump whatever veterans (nearly all underperforming / injured / already DFA'd) signed by Hahn to the handful of teams willing to take on salary and players for their WS run? Hell yes.

Edited July 1, 2022 by South Side Hit Men

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

All right here goes. Assume there's no huge run in the next month, what does this retool look like?

Guys who would need to be traded this year: Gravemann, Lopez, Cueto. All 3 are overplaying their contract. All 3 should bring legitimate returns. Graveman will be one of the top reliever options on the market. Cueto should be an extremely interesting option for teams that need pitching but who don't have money to spend, frankly he seems like a really interesting fit for the Rays.

Guys who could be moved but it's more Controversial: Abreu, Anderson. In both cases it might be up to them - does Abreu want to play for a contender for the rest of the year? The Cubs got a guy who is currently in their top 10 prospects for Rizzo in a comparable deal, several years away but talented. There are several teams who could legitimately use Abreu right now - Houston, Boston, Minnesota could use 1b help, San Francisco, Atlanta, Cleveland, the Mets, Brewers, even the Dodgers could use DH help. Unless Anderson asks out, he's not likely to go anywhere, but he would have serious trade interest.

Guys you might be able to move to clear minor contracts: Engel, Pollock - if healthy. Might have to send along some money to move Pollock, but you could probably save a few million on his contract if you did. 

Reese McGuire: He's far pre-arbitration and on pace for a 1 WAR backup season thanks to his defense. Someone will need a backup catcher if you want to move him, but the White Sox could continue using him as well. 

Guys who have substantial trade value, but who are under control for years, and who you hope will be even better or more valuable next year: Kopech, Cease, Robert, Vaughn, Burger. There is little reason to move any of these guys as you're not likely to make the team better or cheaper by doing so, at least not this year.

The big pile of guys, guys who don't have much trade value because of either poor performance, injury, or pretty big contracts, who you might be able to move some of them, but all of them might play themselves into more value if you hold onto them: Moncada, Eloy, Giolito, Lynn, Hendriks, Sheets, Bummer.

Guys who are currently unmovable and who are unlikely to be any time soon: Leury, Harrison, Grandal, Kelly.

Space fillers: Haseley, Foster, Ruiz, Lambert, Banks, Zavala. 

If they still aren't close, then moving the main 3 pitchers, asking Abreu what he wants, and seeing if you can save some money on Pollock or Engel are the tasks for this year. Hopefully that helps restock some and maybe finds a useful piece for next year.

The issue is all the guys you really don't want to move or can't move. Right now, the White Sox have 2 choices next year. They have a whole lot of money on the books next year, and the same basic needs as this year, bullpen, LH bat, pitching help, bench. They could very well spend another $180 million next year and be in a comparable situation if some people struggle or get hurt. Alternatively, they could well be under orders to cut salary, in which case moving someone out of the expensive group (Moncada, Lynn, Hendriks) could be required. The time to decide that would be the offseason.

Every position that could be filled internally would be helpful. Get some useful pieces in the trades you have to make. Try to see what catching options you have by making sure to play Zavala some. Then, bring up Yolbert, see if he has any shot at being a utility guy for next year. If Sosa is plausibly ready, get him back up too. Give Martin a chance to replace Cueto, give Lambert a chance to see if he can be a rosterable reliever. Harrison can readily be cut in this situation, and if the manager refuses to play the youth, start cutting people.

Then in the offseason, you have a choice between trying to continue selling guys, especially if you need to cut payroll, and running it back and hoping some staff changes make a difference. Some guys are likely to play themselves into more value in the 2nd half, this will be part of the story, but it's one we can't predict right now.

Lopez isn’t going to fetch much on the trade market, but provides significant value as a future closer if they move on from Graveman and/or Kelly.

They especially need insurance due to Hendriks’ lingering health concerns.

Moving Graveman makes the most sense, as nobody would take Kelly without money or prospects coming along with him.

 

You do have to have a heart to heart with Abreu about this year, a possible trade to a contender, and a conversation about the future as well…retirement is probably not in his plans with how he’s performing recently.  But you never know.

Dump Pollock for salary relief…unless you’re spending so much or trading so much it’s counterproductive.

Lynn had something like the highest amount of fWAR of any AL pitcher going back to 2019 entering this year.  He’s back to the 93-95 mph range now and his stats are deceptive because of the way his last start ended.  You’re going to have to choose between the returns on him and Giolito.  There’s no point in attempting to contend next year if you trade both those guys and Cueto.  Maybe you even offer Cueto an extension for 2023 if you’re not getting what you want on the trade market.

Going into 2023 relying too much on Martin or Lambert is a recipe for disaster.  If that’s the plan, it’s a foolhardy one.

 

Finally hire someone to work specifically with Burger at agility, defense and getting him into the best shape of his life for 2023.

You can’t move on from Moncada, Jimenez or Grandal, so there should be a legit back up plan at one of those spots.  You also need to see what you have in Carlos Perez, Haseley, Yolbert Sanchez, Sosa so you can make some determinations for next year on guys like Engel and Zavala as well.  You need to see if either Zavala or Perez could handle 60-65% of the workload, with McGuire as backup for 2023.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I'd like to see a trade with Toronto, a big one. They still need starting pitching perhaps they'd like Lynn and Cueto .

In return Cavan Biggio is very versatile (plays all INF and OF positions LH bat FA in 2026. If the Sox can find a taker for Leury somewhere. Biggio is the perfect replacement.

Ricky Tiedman (19) is a big LHP in A+ with as much upward movement as anyone in the Toronto system. I think he's ranked 100 in MLB prospects and should move higher.

The Blue Jays scooped up Tiedeman in the third round and signed him to a bonus of $644,800.

After not having much of a detailed strength or throwing program prior to the Draft, Tiedemann took off once the Blue Jays got him into their new player development complex. The lefty added more muscle to his 6-foot-4 frame and his velocity ticked up from the 93-94 range pre-draft, now sitting at 95-96 mph and reaching higher.

Adrian Hernandez is a 22yr old right handed relief pitcher in AAA . He is small, 5'8" 190 but is supposed to have a great changeup, His fastball isn't anything special, low 90's . He is on Toronto's 40.

Make it look like you're throwing in the towel like Seattle did last year. Then offer Eloy to the A's for Montas and see what they say.

Edited July 2, 2022 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[tray]

Abreu will be re-signed and will be the primary first basemen for a few more years.

That leaves DH and platoon 1B  spot for Vaughn.

That means you trade Eloy and then after that, the damn breaks and you listen to offers on any player.

The 2022 version of the Sox never was able to gel because of injuries and under-performance. 

Anyway, this is the Yankees year, so what difference does it make?

 

 

[Middle Buffalo]

On 6/30/2022 at 6:25 AM, fathom said:

[Parkman] About 11 hours ago you were [Edit] saying one thing, now you’re saying the opposite [Edit].

I feel like most of JP’s posts could be summed up like this.

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'd like to see a trade with Toronto, a big one. They still need starting pitching perhaps they'd like Lynn and Cueto .

In return Cavan Biggio is very versatile (plays all INF and OF positions LH bat FA in 2026. If the Sox can find a taker for Leury somewhere. Biggio is the perfect replacement.

Ricky Tiedman (19) is a big LHP in A+ with as much upward movement as anyone in the Toronto system. I think he's ranked 100 in MLB prospects and should move higher.

The Blue Jays scooped up Tiedeman in the third round and signed him to a bonus of $644,800.

After not having much of a detailed strength or throwing program prior to the Draft, Tiedemann took off once the Blue Jays got him into their new player development complex. The lefty added more muscle to his 6-foot-4 frame and his velocity ticked up from the 93-94 range pre-draft, now sitting at 95-96 mph and reaching higher.

Adrian Hernandez is a 22yr old right handed relief pitcher in AAA . He is small, 5'8" 190 but is supposed to have a great changeup, His fastball isn't anything special, low 90's . He is on Toronto's 40.

Make it look like you're throwing in the towel like Seattle did last year. Then offer Eloy to the A's for Montas and see what they say.

Why would a team like the A’s interested in cutting payroll down to the bone want Eloy?

Why would one extra year of control matter (unless they picked up even more expensive options) when they aren’t going to be a contender for the foreseeable future?