Great Expectations

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

Who was the one reliable SP?

Giolito

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think the fundamental problem we all have is impatience.  Almost nobody burns up the league at 25.  Players come up and they have to adjust.  So we see glimpses of Robert for thirty games and we say "he's going to be one of the greatest ever" and then he goes in a slump and we say he is garbage.   The reality is baseball players and pitchers peak at 30  (J.C. Bradbury and published in Journal of Sports Sciences) or 28 (Mitchel Lichtman of Hardball Times).  The core of our team are young guys who have all flashed greatness.  Look at the list of players that have not even hit peak from the most conservative estimate.

Player	Age
Garrett Crochet	23
Andrew Vaughn	24
Luis Robert	24
Eloy Jiménez	25
Gavin Sheets	26
Jake Burger	26
Michael Kopech	26
Dylan Cease	26
Yoan Moncada	27
Lucas Giolito	27

 Vaughn, Robert and Jimenez are babies.  Cease and Kopech are just learning to be great.  To give up on those five because of a few injuries is madness.  Look at Byron Buxton.  Hurt at 24.  Hurt at 25. Covid season at 26 and now the last two years he's one of the best player in baseball. Moncado has been near great for the last three years and you are dumping him because of a bad 30 games?    Gio has been near great for the last three years and you are dumping him because of a bad 5 starts?   So we have rising stars coupled with a couple of players at their peak (Anderson, Bummer, Reylo) or past their peak (Lynn, Abreu, Grandal, Hendricks) and suddenly a very exciting crop of minor leaguers.   The Sox have had an incredibly bad run of luck with injuries this year...and cold starts and yes I suspect the team is down and frustrated.  But I still think they are going to get healthy and hot.  And if not this season??  Look at that Padres last season...sometimes you have all the parts but it takes some hard times before you learn how this all fits together.  

 

But the difference comes down to huge starting pitching depth, and having enough of a roster to cover for the loss of two stars (Machado back again from ankle injury) for 3-4 months. Arguably they have come together and played better without Tatis as every player has had to contribute.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/pivot-point-now-contending-the-padres-have-traded-the-equivalent-of-a-40-man-roster/

The Padres arguably made bad to terrible trades for Snell, Clevinger (5 current starters on the Guardians plus Quantrill) and even Urias/Lauer for Grisham now looks pretty bad as well that would have gotten Hahn fired multiple times at SoxTalk.

The farm system allowed them to absorb all those trade losses and still keep CJ Abrams, Hassell, Campusano, Weathers, Morejon, Lamet and Baez for depth/trades.  They had enough talent on the 40 man they gave away the Orioles' SS Mateo for nothing.

And that list doesn't include this year's Paddack/Pagan for Rogers, who will be a LHR reliever nearly everyone pursues in FA...as well as the trades for Sean Manaea and Adam Frazier last TDL.

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by caulfield12

[Greg Hibbard]

Yoan is an extremely high variance player going through an absolutely brutal streak. He’s a 3.5 RWAR avg per 162 that I think he will straighten out into a reliable 4 RWAR third baseman. No, it’s not a 6 RWAR beast we would thought he might be, but 4 is completely fine. 

If the White Sox can come around that Eloy can just DH, I still think he will be fine. His numbers are still offensively pretty good, and he still has to develop at this level. He hasn’t played nearly enough games to evaluate yet. 

Luis is a great potentially generational player in the making who is still young and raw. 

i guess I’m still optimistic about the talent on this team - just not the organizational execution and oversight. 

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Giolito

Wasn’t Keuchel 5th in Cy Young voting in 2020?  I’d certainly call him “reliable” that year. 

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Wasn’t Keuchel 5th in Cy Young voting in 2020?  I’d certainly call him “reliable” that year. 

Yeah, he was reliable until he suddenly wasn't.  That foreshadowed his 2021-22 seasons.  We did lack a reliable third.  Cease wasn't there yet.

[hogan873]

Remember when we were talking about this season, and we were saying that we'd need key players to be good (not necessarily great) and a few other players to step up in order for the Sox to be what we hoped, which was an easy favorite for the division?  And we also said a lot of things would have to go wrong for them to not be contenders?  Well, just about everything that could have gone bad has.  Injuries and key players performing poorly are big factors, but piss poor managing by the local drunkard has been a huge factor.

[michelangelosmonkey]

10 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Well there’s plenty of reason for impatience. First of all, this is Moncada’s 6th big league season not counting his Boston time. 4th for Eloy, 3rd for Robert. Kopech made his big league debut 4 years ago. Many guys hit their athletic and performance peaks at 26 these days. These guys aren’t babies, Vaughn excluded. Coming into the year, the White Sox had a roster that was in the top 10 of oldest in the league. This roster is old enough that it was easy to project then being hurt a lot this year.

But there are also other key issues. Giolito is a free agent next season. Abreu this season. Kopech and Cease both hit arbitration next year so their salaries go up. With the sheer number of holes - they either can’t afford many busts or they need a steadier supply of guys from the minors taking roles and contributing, and they aren’t getting it.

* OK your whole "seasons" thing is such nonsense.  Moncada has played in 30 games this year and he's been obviously injured in many. But the last three years he has been the 6th best 3B in baseball by fWar...better than Manny Machado.   And he's 27, not 6 seasons, old.   Yes Jiminez has been hurt last year and this year which is frustrating because he his 45 home runs in his first 175 games at 23.  As I mentioned Buxton was also injury prone until suddenly he was the best player in baseball...sometimes it takes time.    Robert has put up a 7.3 bWar after his first 183 games AT TWENTY FOUR, not three seasons.    

*To say "many guys hit their athletic peak at 26" is just meaningless.   There were two big in depth studies and they say 28 or 30 for peak....you try to trash two studies by saying 'look at a couple of data points'.  Sure some will do that earlier but which White Sox young player do you think has hit his peak and will never be better???   

*As for your "average age" thing...a meaningless stat because the back end of the White Sox roster is filled with old guys because they are trying to win a championship.  Their core best players are still very young and likely to get better.   

* Of course there's reason for impatience.  But worrying about 2024's payroll seems like you are hunting for gloom.  The Sox are 4 games under .500 with 88 to play.   The injuries have been crazy. To date Davis Martin and Jimmy Lambert combined have started more games than Lance Lynn.  VV and DK combined have more starts than Cease.  Bummer, Kelly, Crochett and Liam have missed big chunks of the season...that group of four would have constituted one of the best bullpens in baseball last year and this year they are hurt.  But guys are coming back.  If they win 62% of their remains games they end up at 90 wins.  I'm hoping for that.  

 

[Flash]

Its always fun for me to start my day by reading Soxtalk comments. I'm genuinely impressed by the well developed points of view and how articulately they are expressed. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

* OK your whole "seasons" thing is such nonsense.  Moncada has played in 30 games this year and he's been obviously injured in many. But the last three years he has been the 6th best 3B in baseball by fWar...better than Manny Machado.   And he's 27, not 6 seasons, old.   Yes Jiminez has been hurt last year and this year which is frustrating because he his 45 home runs in his first 175 games at 23.  As I mentioned Buxton was also injury prone until suddenly he was the best player in baseball...sometimes it takes time.    Robert has put up a 7.3 bWar after his first 183 games AT TWENTY FOUR, not three seasons.    

*To say "many guys hit their athletic peak at 26" is just meaningless.   There were two big in depth studies and they say 28 or 30 for peak....you try to trash two studies by saying 'look at a couple of data points'.  Sure some will do that earlier but which White Sox young player do you think has hit his peak and will never be better???   

*As for your "average age" thing...a meaningless stat because the back end of the White Sox roster is filled with old guys because they are trying to win a championship.  Their core best players are still very young and likely to get better.   

* Of course there's reason for impatience.  But worrying about 2024's payroll seems like you are hunting for gloom.  The Sox are 4 games under .500 with 88 to play.   The injuries have been crazy. To date Davis Martin and Jimmy Lambert combined have started more games than Lance Lynn.  VV and DK combined have more starts than Cease.  Bummer, Kelly, Crochett and Liam have missed big chunks of the season...that group of four would have constituted one of the best bullpens in baseball last year and this year they are hurt.  But guys are coming back.  If they win 62% of their remains games they end up at 90 wins.  I'm hoping for that.  

 

In this day and age, I think it’s pretty much generally-established for baseball that the age range of 27-29 is peak and, in the post steroid years, 31-32 is when you start to see appreciable declines, especially at the catcher’s spot.

[michelangelosmonkey]

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

But the difference comes down to huge starting pitching depth, and having enough of a roster to cover for the loss of two stars (Machado back again from ankle injury) for 3-4 months. Arguably they have come together and played better without Tatis as every player has had to contribute.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/pivot-point-now-contending-the-padres-have-traded-the-equivalent-of-a-40-man-roster/

The Padres arguably made bad to terrible trades for Snell, Clevinger (5 current starters on the Guardians plus Quantrill) and even Urias/Lauer for Grisham now looks pretty bad as well that would have gotten Hahn fired multiple times at SoxTalk.

The farm system allowed them to absorb all those trade losses and still keep CJ Abrams, Hassell, Campusano, Weathers, Morejon, Lamet and Baez for depth/trades.  They had enough talent on the 40 man they gave away the Orioles' SS Mateo for nothing.

And that list doesn't include this year's Paddack/Pagan for Rogers, who will be a LHR reliever nearly everyone pursues in FA...as well as the trades for Sean Manaea and Adam Frazier last TDL.

 

I think my point was that didn't happen LAST year for the Padres...from Aug 10th on the Pads went 12-34. The Sox have had everything go wrong this 70 games but they aren't 22 games under .500 in that stretch.     And for all the praise you give to the Padres...they are actually not a up and coming young team.   Looking at their key players that are 27 or younger....Kim 26 at shortstop with career .640 OPS.  Tatis who has been their version of Eloy.   Grisham, 25, who had been good but has been worse than Moncada this year.   Abrams, 21, who can't hit anything.   Azocar, 26, same.  Gore, 23 has been a good pitcher but pitched 50 bad innings last year in the minors and out all of 2020 so talk about ramping up.  The Padres are getting it done with a bunch of guys 29 or older.  They have lots of holes to fill and lots of payroll committed.  I wouldn't want to trade rosters.     

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

In this day and age, I think it’s pretty much generally-established for baseball that the age range of 27-29 is peak and, in the post steroid years, 31-32 is when you start to see appreciable declines, especially at the catcher’s spot.

I agree with that...which is why, in spite of the bad half season, you have to be excited about Gio, Cease, Kopech, Crochet about to hit a really good three year stretch and Vaughn, Robert, Jiminez and Yoan doing the same.  Angels prove that you can't build around two stars but I'm pretty sure you can build around 8.  

[bmags]

2 hours ago, hogan873 said:

Remember when we were talking about this season, and we were saying that we'd need key players to be good (not necessarily great) and a few other players to step up in order for the Sox to be what we hoped, which was an easy favorite for the division?  And we also said a lot of things would have to go wrong for them to not be contenders?  Well, just about everything that could have gone bad has.  Injuries and key players performing poorly are big factors, but piss poor managing by the local drunkard has been a huge factor.

yeah, I guess my thing is that sometimes bad seasons happen even to good teams. The problem is hahn doesn't get benefit of the doubt that he can right the ship.

[michelangelosmonkey]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

yeah, I guess my thing is that sometimes bad seasons happen even to good teams. The problem is hahn doesn't get benefit of the doubt that he can right the ship.

Why?   Hahn's built a roster that has won the equivalent of 90 games two years in a row with a restrictive payroll.  Hahn's adds of Graveman and Cueto have been very good while Pollock was a guy almost everyone on Soxtalk liked as an add.   I know it's Soxtalk position that everyone in the organization from top to bottom are idiots but still... top three talent roster wise with no bad contracts (Well, Leury, but only bad because...why?).   In the off season if we had signed Conforto and Marcus Semien, giving up compensatory picks and $300 million in salary, Soxtalk would have been over the moon...and now we would be in a much worse position.  It's HARD to build a championship roster (Phillies? Angels? Dodgers?) but we have built a competitive team and we just need to remember that as we float through the doldrums.  

[HOFHurt35]

20 hours ago, Quin said:

I think my biggest problem/frustration is that if even Ricky Renteria were still here, we'd be seeing better out of Eloy, Yoan, and Robert (when healthy). He couldn't manage a bullpen, but the team was enjoyable and played hard for Ricky.

So LaRussa has made Eloy, Yoan, and Robert unhealthy/ bad at baseball? 

 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think my point was that didn't happen LAST year for the Padres...from Aug 10th on the Pads went 12-34. The Sox have had everything go wrong this 70 games but they aren't 22 games under .500 in that stretch.     And for all the praise you give to the Padres...they are actually not a up and coming young team.   Looking at their key players that are 27 or younger....Kim 26 at shortstop with career .640 OPS.  Tatis who has been their version of Eloy.   Grisham, 25, who had been good but has been worse than Moncada this year.   Abrams, 21, who can't hit anything.   Azocar, 26, same.  Gore, 23 has been a good pitcher but pitched 50 bad innings last year in the minors and out all of 2020 so talk about ramping up.  The Padres are getting it done with a bunch of guys 29 or older.  They have lots of holes to fill and lots of payroll committed.  I wouldn't want to trade rosters.     

Abrams and Kim wouldn’t be playing if not for the Tatis injury.  Azocar is Engel or Leury.  Last man on the roster. Grisham has always been a complementary player, not expected to be a superstar like Moncada.  Compare Jimenez and Tatis for total fWAR in their careers and they’re not even in the same vicinity.

You’re certainly going out of your way to ignore Alfaro, Machado, Cronenworth, Voit, Profar, etc.

The Padres have older position players compared to 2-3 years ago (see White Sox) but they also have Machado and Tatis.  And Hosmer and Myers will be out the door soon.

Abrams has had less minor league at bats than Vaughn and he came from a high school, not a top Division 1 college program.

 

So you want the third place roster in the worst division in baseball over the second best in the second best division?

9 games separating them in the standings?

 

The Padres have four starting pitchers over 114 ERA+, with Musgrove at 172.  Manaea is #5 at 99 and Blake Snell is their #6.

That doesn’t even take into account Lamet, Weathers, Morejon and Baez vs. Martin/Lambert/VV.  Counter that with Cease at 152,Kopech 140, Cueto 117 with a 4.17 FIP.  Giolito 75 and Lynn 64 are split exactly evenly by Blake Snell at 69.

Final Summary:

The only way you have any argument is that Moncada is a 4-5 fWAR guy again, Jimenez healthy/productive, Grandal not broken and one of Lynn/Giolito pitching like an All-Star, no regression from Cueto and Hendriks back at 100%.

The Padres merely need Tatis to be a 775-825 ops guy against the White Sox needing all seven things to go right from here on out.

And then the White Sox simply can’t afford a major pitching injury or they're done.

Edited July 1, 2022 by caulfield12

[hogan873]

13 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

So LaRussa has made Eloy, Yoan, and Robert unhealthy/ bad at baseball? 

 

No, but there's accountability.  I'm not sure Ricky would have been any better at managing the laziness and lack of preparedness we've seen from all three of these guys, but TLR is useless in that regard.  This team lacks someone holding the players accountable.  A real manager nips in the bud the laziness and half-assed running.  A real manager benches Leury and Sheets when they're not performing.  A real manager holds the players accountable.

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

So LaRussa has made Eloy, Yoan, and Robert unhealthy/ bad at baseball? 

 

I don’t know who is teaching what, but there’s definitely a “hit the ball on the ground and bloop it the other way” result that is permeating this organization, and the organization has been at the bottom of the league in launch angle since that stat was first tracked. They may not be teaching it deliberately but the result is coming through with basically all their players, that isn’t a coincidence.

[caulfield12]

30 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Why?   Hahn's built a roster that has won the equivalent of 90 games two years in a row with a restrictive payroll.  Hahn's adds of Graveman and Cueto have been very good while Pollock was a guy almost everyone on Soxtalk liked as an add.   I know it's Soxtalk position that everyone in the organization from top to bottom are idiots but still... top three talent roster wise with no bad contracts (Well, Leury, but only bad because...why?).   In the off season if we had signed Conforto and Marcus Semien, giving up compensatory picks and $300 million in salary, Soxtalk would have been over the moon...and now we would be in a much worse position.  It's HARD to build a championship roster (Phillies? Angels? Dodgers?) but we have built a competitive team and we just need to remember that as we float through the doldrums.  

Semien is quietly recovering from his terrible start.

Nobody thought Pollock had the arm for RF.  That’s where Hahn planned to play him before the Jimenez injury.

 

No bad contracts…well, Keuchel, Grandal right now, Leury, Harrison, nobody knows about Jimenez and Moncada, Kelly is a bad contract, Hendriks if he has to get TJ is one of the worst contracts in baseball, Bummer depending on his return to form, Lynn the jury is still out on whether he can ever get back to 2021 first half, Giolito doesn’t have a ton of value right now.  Then there are 6-8 negligible value guys.

Anderson/Robert/Cueto/Cease/Vaughn/Graveman/Kopech are your only good contracts.  You can be optimistic and add Burger.

[South Side Hit Men]

24 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Why?   Hahn's built a roster that has won the equivalent of 90 games two years in a row with a restrictive payroll.  Hahn's adds of Graveman and Cueto have been very good while Pollock was a guy almost everyone on Soxtalk liked as an add.   I know it's Soxtalk position that everyone in the organization from top to bottom are idiots but still... top three talent roster wise with no bad contracts (Well, Leury, but only bad because...why?).   In the off season if we had signed Conforto and Marcus Semien, giving up compensatory picks and $300 million in salary, Soxtalk would have been over the moon...and now we would be in a much worse position.  It's HARD to build a championship roster (Phillies? Angels? Dodgers?) but we have built a competitive team and we just need to remember that as we float through the doldrums.  

 

• They have one winning full season under Hahn ever the first eight seasons.
• Hahn spent the 7th highest payroll, nearly $200M, and by far the largest in team history. Sadly, it's been spent on old decrepit players as is Hahn's want in life.
• Pollock is an unforced error the Sox are stuck with for two years, because Hahn's fragile ego had to double down to attempt to salvage his "best idea" at the trade deadline, and overworked overpriced reliever.
• Laughing at the focus on Leury the "bad contract" when Hahn is paying nearly $20M each for:

1. Lynn mukbanging himself into missing the first half the year,
2. Yasmani "120 Games" Grandal with a .531 OPS, terrible at catching beyond framing, not returning anytime soon.
3. Paying Dallas Keuchel $18M to pitch for Arizona.
4. Joe Kelly who has been worthless the dozen games he was actually healthy enough to pitch.
5. Stuck paying Pollock $25M when he should have paid the $1M buyout to Kimbrel and spent it on the endless holes Hahn has harvested at 2B and RF.

[Snopek]

41 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Why?   Hahn's built a roster that has won the equivalent of 90 games two years in a row with a restrictive payroll.  Hahn's adds of Graveman and Cueto have been very good while Pollock was a guy almost everyone on Soxtalk liked as an add.   I know it's Soxtalk position that everyone in the organization from top to bottom are idiots but still... top three talent roster wise with no bad contracts (Well, Leury, but only bad because...why?).   In the off season if we had signed Conforto and Marcus Semien, giving up compensatory picks and $300 million in salary, Soxtalk would have been over the moon...and now we would be in a much worse position.  It's HARD to build a championship roster (Phillies? Angels? Dodgers?) but we have built a competitive team and we just need to remember that as we float through the doldrums.  

What is your definition of competitive?

[Jack Parkman]

Moncada has a ton of swing and miss in his game so he's always going to be volatile offensively. I think he still has 2019 seasons in him. Should be a 3-5 win player most years. 

Edited July 1, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Moncada has a ton of swing and miss in his game so he's always going to be volatile offensively. I think he still has 2019 seasons in him. 

I think all of us would understand that if he was still hitting the ball very hard, but the drop offs in exit velocity don’t work with a guy who swings and misses a lot. 

[Jack Parkman]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think all of us would understand that if he was still hitting the ball very hard, but the drop offs in exit velocity don’t work with a guy who swings and misses a lot. 

Power comes from the legs and even on Moncada's double the other night he didn't explode on the ball. There's something up with his hip rotation that is messing him up.  His swing seems very mechanical and choppy rather than smooth. 

Edited July 1, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

29 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

 

• They have one winning full season under Hahn ever the first eight seasons.
• Hahn spent the 7th highest payroll, nearly $200M, and by far the largest in team history. Sadly, it's been spent on old decrepit players as is Hahn's want in life.
• Pollock is an unforced error the Sox are stuck with for two years, because Hahn's fragile ego had to double down to attempt to salvage his "best idea" at the trade deadline, and overworked overpriced reliever.
• Laughing at the focus on Leury the "bad contract" when Hahn is paying nearly $20M each for:

1. Lynn mukbanging himself into missing the first half the year,
2. Yasmani "120 Games" Grandal with a .531 OPS, terrible at catching beyond framing, not returning anytime soon.
3. Paying Dallas Keuchel $18M to pitch for Arizona.
4. Joe Kelly who has been worthless the dozen games he was actually healthy enough to pitch.
5. Stuck paying Pollock $25M when he should have paid the $1M buyout to Kimbrel and spent it on the endless holes Hahn has harvested at 2B and RF.

6. Completely botched his evaluation of Rodon…who has risen from a $3 million make good deal to the front tier of the 2022-23 FA class along with Musgrove and deGrom.  Worst-case scenario, we have the comp pick and more draft money to spend.  Best case, one of the best, deepest, most balanced starting rotations in baseball.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Why?   Hahn's built a roster that has won the equivalent of 90 games two years in a row with a restrictive payroll.  Hahn's adds of Graveman and Cueto have been very good while Pollock was a guy almost everyone on Soxtalk liked as an add.   I know it's Soxtalk position that everyone in the organization from top to bottom are idiots but still... top three talent roster wise with no bad contracts (Well, Leury, but only bad because...why?).   In the off season if we had signed Conforto and Marcus Semien, giving up compensatory picks and $300 million in salary, Soxtalk would have been over the moon...and now we would be in a much worse position.  It's HARD to build a championship roster (Phillies? Angels? Dodgers?) but we have built a competitive team and we just need to remember that as we float through the doldrums.  

You don't get credit for winning the equivelant of 90 games in a sixty game season, especially when they were gassed at the end (fired their manager because of it!) and got bounced in the first round to a team they should have beat.

It may be impressive to say the sox have made playoffs two years in a row, but 2 playoff years in a 9 year span isn't even impressive to Rockies fans.

He has not had a restrictive payroll, the Guardians have a restrictive payroll. They have made the playoffs 5 times in that span and never finished lower than 3rd.

The Twins have a restrictive payroll, they have also made the playoffs more than Hahn and look likely/possible to make playoffs this year (on pace for 88 wins).

The white sox purposely traded away all assets, lost purposely for 3 years straight and were rewarded with two playoff births. They have a maxed out payroll now. They have the 30th ranked farm. Their core players are underperforming.

Yeah I think Hahn is perfect for this, definitely showed to be shrewder than maybe 1 other GM in baseball.