If the Sox trade for Juan Soto we have a chance.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

34 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

How would Bryan Reynolds be termed reasonable…compared to Happ, who the Cubs pretty much have to get rid of since they’re basically blowing the whole team up other than Seizuki, Stroman and maybe Hendricks?

Eventually the Pirates are going to stop making dumb trades and incorrect talent evaluations (Polanco, for one).

I said "more reasonable" as in more reasonable than acquiring Soto. And Happ is "more reasonable" because of the reasons you stated.

[South Side Hit Men]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Raise your hand if you feel confident the White Sox are going to run out a $200+ million payroll next year???

No qualifications, like they make the playoffs or trade for Soto…will they or won’t they exceed $200 million for the first time in club history?

I don't see it unless attendance heats up the final two months, they make the playoffs, and sustain / add to the Season Ticket base. They are not getting the same walkup crowds they got last year once the restrictions were lifted last season on June 25th.

Currently, they are running closer to 2019 tanking attendance than 2021, though their inflation adjusted revenue is likely higher per ticket, with many 2019 tickets discounted / given away. I went to several 2019 games for $3 a piece based on tickets sold to employees at the Illinois Center for April, May and September weekday games.

That said, they are spending more on payroll per fan this season than in previous seasons. Significantly higher national and other shared MLB revenue will cover much of the difference, but I don't believe all of it.  Budgets are based in part on the following season projected revenue, which I don't have, this is the best cocktail napkin analysis I can do with public information.

• 2016 21,829 (1,746,293 / 80 Dates) $5,245 payroll dollars per average fan ($114,498,667 / 21,829)
• 2019 21,426 (1,649,775 / 77 Dates) $2,343  ($50,204,444 / 21,426)
• 2021 28,367 (1,134,676 / 40 Dates: June 25-end of regular season) $2,269 (1/2 $128,716,666 / 28,367)
• 2022 24,146 (1,062,445 / 44 Dates). $8,008 ($193,370,219 / 24,146)

Edited July 21, 2022 by South Side Hit Men

[caulfield12]

https://nypost.com/2022/07/20/juan-soto-trade-talks-may-be-telling-of-yankees-hal-steinbrenner/

 

“Cashman has seen it all in his quarter century on the job, and frankly, I don’t think we’re going to learn much about him between now and 6 p.m. on Aug. 2. He’s highly qualified to determine if a prospects-plus package headlined by Anthony Volpe is a price worth paying for Soto. But if the GM does come to temporary terms with his Washington counterpart, Mike Rizzo, I do think we will learn something about Hal Steinbrenner.

As in, just how badly the Yankees owner wants to win.

Yes, of course, everyone wants to win. But there is a vast difference between saying that you want to win and acting like you need to win. Steinbrenner’s decision on whether to approve a Soto acquisition and the potential half-billion dollar contract to come after 2024 — on top of a potential monster contract for Aaron Judge and existing monster deals for Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton — would identify which camp he’s in.

Up front, understand that employing the 23-year-old Soto for three postseason runs alone would be worth just about anything Rizzo could ask for. Now in Double-A ball, the 21-year-old Volpe might be a long-term Yankees shortstop out of central casting as a supremely talented Jersey Boy who idolized Derek Jeter.”

[DirtySox]

 

[bmags]

Everyone can rest easy, the teams we are ostensibly competing against are about to add a top 3 player in baseball, but we can sign a bum ass conforto for next year in hopes he is good value.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

Everyone can rest easy, the teams we are ostensibly competing against are about to add a top 3 player in baseball, but we can sign a bum ass conforto for next year in hopes he is good value.

They don't have the bullets to make a deal for Soto nor would extend him.

[bmags]

8 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

They don't have the bullets to make a deal for Soto nor would extend him.

Oh no we'd only have him for the entire competitive window

[Bob Sacamano]

17 minutes ago, bmags said:

Oh no we'd only have him for the entire competitive window

Refer back to the point that we don’t have the pieces without trading from current core.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

20 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Refer back to the point that we don’t have the pieces without trading from current core.

He is better than the current core.

[Bob Sacamano]

11 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

He is better than the current core.

True but are you trading Kopech and Vaughn plus others for him? Just don’t really see them beating other teams with deeper farms.

Edited July 21, 2022 by Bob Sacamano

[turnin' two]

15 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

True but are you trading Kopech and Vaughn plus others for him? Just don’t really see them beating other teams with deeper farms.

Who knows, because you know teams like the Dodgers and Padres are involved, and they've shown a willingness to do things the Sox won't.  But this is the type of move that sends a big message.  

If I'm the Sox I' offering something like this:

Eloy, Montgomery, Vera.

--OR--

Vaughn, Colas, any non Vera pitcher.

If they also want Sosa or Ramos or Popeye, I'm not hesitating.

I don't think I'd trade Vaughn and Montgomery in the same deal.  And honestly, I don't think I trade them at all if this isn't Juan Soto.

Eloy is a but tricky.  I really have no idea how teams would value him (I obviously value Vaughn a bit more highly).  I love the guy.  But he isn't a great fit (positionally), and we can't really depend on him.  I don't think the Nats would scoff at Eloy and Montgomery or Vaughn and Colas.

And yeah, Soto isn't signing an extension here.  No way the Sox are giving half a billion dollars to a guy.  But that still gives you 3 potential postseasons with one of the elite hitters in the game.  Oh yeah, he hits left handed, and plays a position of need.  Will it slam close the window after that?  Maybe.  But that window may be gone anyways.  Take your best shot.  Get the best player to make a run.  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, turnin' two said:

Who knows, because you know teams like the Dodgers and Padres are involved, and they've shown a willingness to do things the Sox won't.  But this is the type of move that sends a big message.  

If I'm the Sox I' offering something like this:

Eloy, Montgomery, Vera.

--OR--

Vaughn, Colas, any non Vera pitcher.

If they also want Sosa or Ramos or Popeye, I'm not hesitating.

I don't think I'd trade Vaughn and Montgomery in the same deal.  And honestly, I don't think I trade them at all if this isn't Juan Soto.

Eloy is a but tricky.  I really have no idea how teams would value him (I obviously value Vaughn a bit more highly).  I love the guy.  But he isn't a great fit (positionally), and we can't really depend on him.  I don't think the Nats would scoff at Eloy and Montgomery or Vaughn and Colas.

And yeah, Soto isn't signing an extension here.  No way the Sox are giving half a billion dollars to a guy.  But that still gives you 3 potential postseasons with one of the elite hitters in the game.  Oh yeah, he hits left handed, and plays a position of need.  Will it slam close the window after that?  Maybe.  But that window may be gone anyways.  Take your best shot.  Get the best player to make a run.  

Right no sense  saying we don't have the pieces. There's only 1 way to find out. Start the damn negotiations ! Do the best you can to keep Vaughn and can't be give up Kopech. Hopefully Eloy and not Vaughn and if you have to include Montgomery or Colas or both, who cares ,throw in Sheets and Burger too  !

Edited July 21, 2022 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Kyyle23]

Weird for Boras to say he wants to be traded to the Mets.  The Nats are under no obligation to make a deal with them, and they shouldn’t feel like they need to take the best deal that the Mets could offer and also know that they will have Soto in division for (possibly)a good chunk of the rest of the time he plays in the MLB.   I would make the Mets pay up and then some if they really wanted this to happen 

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Weird for Boras to say he wants to be traded to the Mets.  The Nats are under no obligation to make a deal with them, and they shouldn’t feel like they need to take the best deal that the Mets could offer and also know that they will have Soto in division for (possibly)a good chunk of the rest of the time he plays in the MLB.   I would make the Mets pay up and then some if they really wanted this to happen 

I wonder if this a play to try to limit his market to get the Nats to offer him another deal instead of dumping him for scraps.

[GreenSox]

Even if the Nats would accept the Sox prospects, the cost for the Sox doing that is immense, because that would take every quality young player we have.  Huge loss in marginal utility.
Of course I don't buy this "Window" nonsense either.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

2 hours ago, Bob Sacamano said:

True but are you trading Kopech and Vaughn plus others for him? Just don’t really see them beating other teams with deeper farms.

I absolutely would make that deal, especially if Jerry would pony up an extension (he won't).  However, I agree that they will be able to top that elsewhere.

[Bob Sacamano]

26 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I absolutely would make that deal, especially if Jerry would pony up an extension (he won't).  However, I agree that they will be able to top that elsewhere.

Other not being filler. Think Montgomery, Veras.

[shago]

WE ARE NOT IN THE MIX. Top talent does not want to play for this [organization]. STOP

[Chicago White Sox]

23 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Haven’t we all learned from watching Trout and Ohtani?

Does Soto even guarantee a playoff team these next three years when you’re already having to replace Giolito and Tim Anderson after 2023 and 2024…assuming you don’t trade Montgomery, he’s your rookie SS that final Soto season, if not earlier.

You have the worst prospects after 2024 of any team in baseball…looking at repeating 2016-2019 all over again.

And one of the oldest and smallest stadiums in baseball in terms of generating revenue.

 

Besides the fact the primary way this all works is if Abreu doesn’t regress, Lynn suddenly returns to 2019-21 form, Cease and/or Kopech stay healthy, Grandal returns to form, Hendriks/Graveman/Kelly/Lopez stay healthy, Robert and/or Moncada are close to superstars and you can somehow solve the Eloy/Vaughn/Pollock logjam.  There’s just way too many variables for Soto (assuming full health) to override all that.  And it’s not like Soto is accruing tons of value for his defense or baserunning.

It would have been ten times more logical to simply sign Harper when they had the opportunity and there was no prospect cost nor ticking clock of when he was going to leave as well.

 

The White Sox name is only thrown in there to generate fan interest.  Bait and switch.  Rinse and repeat.

Probably should contract the franchise based on this outlook.

[Jerksticks]

Wait does the window close this year or next year?  Asking for the fanbase 

[South Side Fireworks Man]

1 hour ago, GreenSox said:

Even if the Nats would accept the Sox prospects, the cost for the Sox doing that is immense, because that would take every quality young player we have.  Huge loss in marginal utility.
Of course I don't buy this "Window" nonsense either.

I wonder if any teams, specifically the Nats in this case, still think that players like Eloy and Yoan are going to live up to their former hype/expectations.  If so, would a package of say Eloy, Yoan, Crochet and Colas interest them?  I doubt it but I'll hang up now and listen for my answer.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

23 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Wait does the window close this year or next year?  Asking for the fanbase 

If they don't do something it's already closed.

[Jack Parkman]

25 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Wait does the window close this year or next year?  Asking for the fanbase 

 

Just now, South Side Fireworks Man said:

If they don't do something it's already closed.

It was never really open to begin with. Even with everyone that is underachieving having good seasons, they're just not good enough. 

They've always been good enough to win the ALC and nothing more. World Series? That window shut when they got zero superstars out of this group during the years that matter, but merely very good players. They needed Moncada to be Jose Ramirez, Eloy to be prime JD Martinez and Robert to be in a stratosphere of his own, even if not Trout. They needed one more pitcher to be as good as Cease has been this year. When those things didn't happen, the window closed. 

[maxjusttyped]

37 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

 

It was never really open to begin with. Even with everyone that is underachieving having good seasons, they're just not good enough. 

They've always been good enough to win the ALC and nothing more. World Series? That window shut when they got zero superstars out of this group during the years that matter, but merely very good players. They needed Moncada to be Jose Ramirez, Eloy to be prime JD Martinez and Robert to be in a stratosphere of his own, even if not Trout. They needed one more pitcher to be as good as Cease has been this year. When those things didn't happen, the window closed. 

You don't have to be the best team in baseball to win the World Series. If that was the case, this era of Dodgers teams would win every year. The Braves last season weren't even close to the best team, particularly after all of their injuries. Yet they won the World Series anyway. The Sox are absolutely capable of getting hot for 3 weeks in October and winning the World Series.

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

You don't have to be the best team in baseball to win the World Series. If that was the case, this era of Dodgers teams would win every year. The Braves last season weren't even close to the best team, particularly after all of their injuries. Yet they won the World Series anyway. The Sox are absolutely capable of getting hot for 3 weeks in October and winning the World Series.

Not all of those things had to happen, but some of them did.