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Abreu's contract - $ / fWAR - best value in MLB?


Greg Hibbard

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Is this the best value for a veteran slugger on a $50 million+ contract in MLB? 

Since 2020, Abreu has generated 8.5 fWAR, and the Sox have paid him to date 

  • 2020 37% of 12,666,667  - $4,686,666
  • 2021 $17,666,667
  • 2022 (to date - 88 team games played out of 162) $10,683,127

$33,036,460 paid to date / 8.5 fWAR = $3,886,642 per 1 fWAR

 

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Spotrac calculates something called "production points" which they describe as similar to fantasy points calculated across all production categories. In that ranking, out of veterans (excluding early career guys/first contract guys) Abreu comes in 15th in the bigs and best on the White Sox this season.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/valuation/batters/gmpct-60/veterans/

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2 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Is this the best value for a veteran slugger on a $50 million+ contract in MLB? 

Since 2020, Abreu has generated 8.5 fWAR, and the Sox have paid him to date 

  • 2020 37% of 12,666,667  - $4,686,666
  • 2021 $17,666,667
  • 2022 (to date - 88 team games played out of 162) $10,683,127

$33,036,460 paid to date / 8.5 fWAR = $3,886,642 per 1 fWAR

 

Just to clarify, that's 0.707 Leurys per fWAR.

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35 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Jose Abreu putting up one of the best seasons of his career at the ripe young age of 35 ? very Nelson Cruz-esque. 

Jose Abreu OPS + by year.

2014-171

2015-135

2016-124

2017-141

2018-117

2019-118

2020-165

2021-124

2022-141

Weird definition of "one of the best", but sure slugger, keep swinging for the fences.

 

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9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Jose Abreu OPS + by year.

2014-171

2015-135

2016-124

2017-141

2018-117

2019-118

2020-165

2021-124

2022-141

Weird definition of "one of the best", but sure slugger, keep swinging for the fences.

 

Thank you for proving my point. 2020 was the 60-game plandemic season, so you can throw that one out. Based on OPS+, he's tied for his 2nd best season of his career. At the young age of 35 years old. 

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10 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Spotrac calculates something called "production points" which they describe as similar to fantasy points calculated across all production categories. In that ranking, out of veterans (excluding early career guys/first contract guys) Abreu comes in 15th in the bigs and best on the White Sox this season.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/valuation/batters/gmpct-60/veterans/

This is awesome. Thanks! 

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19 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

This is awesome. Thanks! 

Agreed. The key take away for me from that chart is the fact Abreu is 15th among veterans, but 71st overall, emphasizing the importance of capitalizing on selecting and developing the best young players to be among the top winning teams in baseball.

Tim Anderson and is the Sox' leader, Luis Robert is right there with Abreu, and Vaughn is within striking distance and doing well for a 24 year old.

Burger has done OK, and the rest of the team is ranked low to among the worst in MLB.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/valuation/batters/chicago-white-sox/gmpct-60/active/

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10 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

This is awesome. Thanks! 

I wish I could understand it. How is Cease barely ahead of Aaron Nola when Cease is making $750K this year and Nola is making $11.25M ?

If the Sox do go after pitching maybe it should be Martin Perez (31 yrs old) more than Castillo if TX decides to sell. Rangers getting great value since he was a $4M signing on March 11 while Sox signed Cueto (37) for just a little more ($4.2M) on April 5th ,2 days after they found out Lynn was done for 6-8 weeks. But it was a Minor league contract so his prorated rate is $3.32M .

So even though the Sox needed starting pitching depth, the move for Cueto only came after Lynn was injured. I mean sure Hahn can spin it another way but the dates speak for themselves. It was a desperation move born from the Lynn injury.

Remember he had that May 15th opt out clause in his deal so he could've got away from the Sox and they left him down there as long as possible to pay him less but he was signed just before the season started.

The Twins and Tiger both had shown interest in him before he signed with the Sox.

I wonder if the Sox ever checked in on Perez.

March 11 Rangers sign Martin Perez $4M

March 13 Sox sign Vince Velasquez $3M . Based on the dates the Sox could've offered Perez $3M . He turned it down. Sox pivoted and signed  V V for the $3M instead.

April 3 Sox announce Lance Lynn will miss 6-8 weeks.

April 5 Sox sign Cueto $4.2M minor league deal (Prorated to $3.32M) after call up.

 

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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2 hours ago, poppysox said:

Comfortable in a low-pressure environment.

Not from his post-game quotes two days ago.

And, as they learned from Lynn and Keuchel, no guarantees at this age of repeat performance.

Erwin Santana went from pretty great to terrible in the blink of an eye, for example.

 

Must have been strange pitching in the same stadium where he won a WS seven years earlier…closer to his prime, after now having joined another supposed World Series contender as the clock is ticking on his career.  Bet he would have a lot more to say about the differences between those two teams.

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Not from his post-game quotes two days ago.

And, as they learned from Lynn and Keuchel, no guarantees at this age of repeat performance.

Erwin Santana went from pretty great to terrible in the blink of an eye, for example.

We need to move on from this whole coaching staff.  Watching a low-energy team play out the string is of little interest to me.  The Royals looked for all to see like the better baseball team.  I have defended the FO and ownership more than most but this has been brutal.  I honestly feel that almost any average fan could put together better lineups and make in-game decisions equal to or better than LaRussa.  I didn't like him the first time and he is far worst this go-round.  Jerry's first responsibility should be to the fan who supports this franchise, not some employee he regrets firing 35 years ago.  Tony's HOF plaque says "master of maneuvering lineups and managing bullpens"---give me a break.

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5 minutes ago, poppysox said:

We need to move on from this whole coaching staff.  Watching a low-energy team play out the string is of little interest to me.  The Royals looked for all to see like the better baseball team.  I have defended the FO and ownership more than most but this has been brutal.  I honestly feel that almost any average fan could put together better lineups and make in-game decisions equal to or better than LaRussa.  I didn't like him the first time and he is far worst this go-round.  Jerry's first responsibility should be to the fan who supports this franchise, not some employee he regrets firing 35 years ago.  Tony's HOF plaque says "master of maneuvering lineups and managing bullpens"---give me a break.

Have won 4 of their last 6 series.  Red Sox 3-1, White Sox 3-1, first time back to back two four game series wins since 2014 WS team.  Gave the Astros and Yankees all they could handle, too.

Very similar to the Tigers the finals two months of 2021.

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He has always been a great value for his production per what they pay him relative to other great power hitters. 

Yet I think we are forgetting one important point. He is a free agent after the season. With this horse shit manager and coaching staff and underperforming team, who says Jose will even want to sign again with the Sox? We know there are other good teams out there and probably closer to winning a championship, especially since he will be turning 36 next season. 

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10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Have won 4 of their last 6 series.  Red Sox 3-1, White Sox 3-1, first time back to back two four game series wins since 2014 WS team.  Gave the Astros and Yankees all they could handle, too.

Very similar to the Tigers the finals two months of 2021.

Teams that run out every play and steal bases whenever possible make us look bad.  This team needs swagger but we look intimidated.

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