Will the Sox ever outdraw the Cubs again?

[caulfield12]

The last time this happened was 30 years ago, 1992, the second year of New Comiskey.

I was 22 years old then, which means that almost two generations have come into a Cubs-dominated world.

 

Right now, in the midst of our supposed multiple championship/s window, we are 18th in the major leagues in attendance.

24,246 per game, unlikely to break the two million mark and just as plausibly finishing at 1.8 million or so.

 

The Cubs just drew 34,366 and 39,219 for a split doubleheader with the Mets.  They have yet another unprecedented losing streak going, are heading for 100 losses, and are soon to trade Contreras, Happ, Robertson and possibly Hendricks.

Yet they’re STILL 7th in MLB attendance, at 32,574, just barely behind the 6th place Astros who have five consecutive ALCS appearances at 32,756.  Around 2.45 - 2.6 million projected attendance.

 

I don’t expect the White Sox will ever outdraw the Cubs again…in my lifetime.

Unless they:

1) Build a new stadium/relocate in Chicagoland (why this is unlikely we know all too well)

2) Relocate to another city/market

3) JR steps aside and a new ownership group and/or Melanie Hobson et al run things in a completely new and innovative way, basically starting over from scratch

It’s almost sacrilege to talk about leaving Chicago, but with ongoing flight from the city/state due to taxes…and the A’s and possibly Rays as well both on the move, not to mention the stadium lease coming up relatively soon (Texas has now had three stadiums in the same timeframe), it’s hard to imagine this not being considered by at least SOMEONE with deep/er pockets than the Reinsdorf group.

Yes, the Sox are still highly or relatively profitable right now…but that situation seems ever more tenuous if the current rebuild falls completely flat.  

I know everyone talks about the 70’s and most of the 80’s as being “down times” for the franchise, but it’s really hard to imagine things looking much bleaker.

 

Yet the best hope seems to be remaining in the AL Central and centralized Chicago location, where they can outspend the competition by 25-50%, if only because the odds of success would be even less on the East or West Coasts.

The only way to stay in a Central division (AL or NL) would be moving to Nashville, San Antonio/Austin (two Western teams in TX already), or Charlotte, but then they would be east and north of the Braves.  Indianapolis and Memphis aren’t quite big enough, same with Louisville.  Mexico City seems too crazy.

 

Does anyone see a way out of this other than firing TLR, Hahn, KW or changing ownership?  How?

And would signing Machado, Harper, Wheeler, etc. really have “saved” the franchise, or even for example trading for Juan Soto and giving him $450-500 million?

Edited July 17, 2022 by caulfield12

[South Side Hit Men]

The Sox have the revenue base to compete among the Top 10 in MLB without moving or building a new stadium. Cubs attendance is irrelevant, 

I wish Jerry moved to TB, he would be stuck with the absolute worst situation in baseball.

Chicago could very well have attracted an AL Expansion franchise in the 1990s. The Chicago market is not considerably different than Los Angeles, and is far better than San Francisco / Oakland, or Washington / Baltimore.

I hope a Billionaire fights for a Chicago AFC franchise after the asshat bears move to Arlington Heights, Decatur, or wherever the hell they end up after leaving our city. Hell, move the Football Cardinals back here.

Edited July 17, 2022 by South Side Hit Men

[Southwest Sider]

This core was their chance to do this, and it's not looking good so far. 

[greg775]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

The Cubs just drew 34,366 and 39,219 for a split doubleheader with the Mets.

I know Wrigley is iconic and everything but where do these people get the money? I have some people coming to town and was checking out getting the best seats possible for the pathetic royals vs the rays next Saturday. If I got everything I wanted, at this time it'd be four diamond club boxes at 100 a pop. So that's 400. I assume parking is 40 or so. So that's 440 to get us in. I saw the crown boxes are 330 apiece for the luxury food seats, etc.

It looked like all the diamond club boxes are sold out but I saw 4 seats at one of those secondary sites. Do u all know which site is the best to get tickets? Are they all legit and not ripoffs?

I'd love to know if there's a significant percentage of Wrigley crowds from out of towners or if it's only 10 percent or so and the rest diehard Cub fans.

Edited July 17, 2022 by greg775

[Sarava]

I think more aggressive ownership would help. This team never has splash free agent signings to spur on ticket sales. Ok I shouldn't say never, but the Albert Belle signing was 26 years ago. It's probably not going to happen in Jerry's lifetime. Jerry is 86 years old and father time ticks even for billionaires, so he's probably in the home stretch of his ownership with the White Sox.

Speaking of the Bears in Arlington Heights. I think there's a good chance that becomes a model for potential future White Sox ownership. The Bears are likely to be highly successful in their move, and that will be noticed by potential buyers. The Sox probably would draw 3 mil+ fans if they move to a good spot in the suburbs. Where in the current location it will always be an uphill battle.

[caulfield12]

51 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I know Wrigley is iconic and everything but where do these people get the money? I have some people coming to town and was checking out getting the best seats possible for the pathetic royals vs the rays next Saturday. If I got everything I wanted, at this time it'd be four diamond club boxes at 100 a pop. So that's 400. I assume parking is 40 or so. So that's 440 to get us in. I saw the crown boxes are 330 apiece for the luxury food seats, etc.

It looked like all the diamond club boxes are sold out but I saw 4 seats at one of those secondary sites. Do u all know which site is the best to get tickets? Are they all legit and not ripoffs?

I'd love to know if there's a significant percentage of Wrigley crowds from out of towners or if it's only 10 percent or so and the rest diehard Cub fans.

Jon Greenberg wrote an article on this a long time ago…basically arguing that the city split was at roughly 60% Cubs fans, 40% Sox fans, but that the Cubs enjoyed that bounce of an additional 33% of their attendance from tourism/out of towners/big group sales.

One of the consequences of having their minor league affiliates so far away has been felt in that regional loss where the Cubs basically own eastern and central Iowa due to the Des Moines AAA team, then they always had Peoria/downstate until it collided with Cardinals fans.

Once upon a time, the Sox had South Bend in the Midwest League, but ceded that territory of NW Indiana as well.

The Brewers, Twins, Royals/Omaha and Wichita, Cardinals have all done a MUCH better job controlling their territorial regions.

How many Sox fans in Indianapolis, for instance?

Meanwhile, the Sox are obsessed with saving money by having their four teams in roughly the same geographic vicinity, but the Sox fans in North Carolina pretty much have no choice but to follow the Braves, Nationals or Orioles.

Same thing with AZ training facilities.  It’s like we don’t even exist compared to the Dodgers, DBacks, Padres, Giants, etc.  At least before we had that Sarasota/Florida loyal fanbase.

Penny wise, pound foolish.

 

Just look at the radio and t.v. coverage for the White Sox vs. the Cubs, Twins, Brewers, Cardinals and Royals across the Midwest.

Sox are getting absolutely trounced there.

Edited July 17, 2022 by caulfield12

[Spicy gar]

45 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I know Wrigley is iconic and everything but where do these people get the money? I have some people coming to town and was checking out getting the best seats possible for the pathetic royals vs the rays next Saturday. If I got everything I wanted, at this time it'd be four diamond club boxes at 100 a pop. So that's 400. I assume parking is 40 or so. So that's 440 to get us in. I saw the crown boxes are 330 apiece for the luxury food seats, etc.

It looked like all the diamond club boxes are sold out but I saw 4 seats at one of those secondary sites. Do u all know which site is the best to get tickets? Are they all legit and not ripoffs?

I'd love to know if there's a significant percentage of Wrigley crowds from out of towners or if it's only 10 percent or so and the rest diehard Cub fans.

Cubs have a large nationwide fan base. Since the early start of baseball on the radio cubs were on. also WGN tv. At least one game a week was on WGN america nation wide. lots of neighboring states have cubs fans. I think the cubs are still broadcast in like 6 states on the radio.

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, Spicy gar said:

Cubs have a large nationwide fan base. Since the early start of baseball on the radio cubs were on. also WGN tv. At least one game a week was on WGN america nation wide. lots of neighboring states have cubs fans. I think the cubs are still broadcast in like 6 states on the radio.

Yes, this dates back to the 80’s with the Cubs on WGN and Braves on WTBS Superstation/TNT.

And then there’s Harry Caray/Budweiser/frat bros and bikini babes (thanks Arne Harris).  Basically, Ferris Bueller’s Day Off trumps The Runaway Bride.

 

[pcq]

Not a concern. Plenty of fish out there. 

[Kyyle23]

Never once cared about this 

[WBWSF]

1) Will the Angels ever outdraw the Dodgers? Will the Mets ever outdraw the Yankees? Will Oakland ever outdraw the Giants? 2) Will the White Sox ever outdraw the Cubs?  As long as the White Sox play at this present location in this present stadium, probably not. Building this stadium at the present location was the biggest mistake in the modern history of the franchise. Then they built a stadium where nobody wants to sit  in most of the upper deck. If the Cubs played at the present White Sox stadium does anybody really think they would be drawing like they do now? 3) I'm hoping when this team gets new ownership a new stadium will be built  in a more popular location and the stadium will have a upper deck that fans will want to sit in.  3) I think the present stadium lease runs out  after the 2028 season. It will be curious to see how this plays out.

[shago]

Imagine a downtown stadium and an owner who cared about winning. Sox would be a huge draw. They are still relatively popular with decades of shit mgmt, yawn patchwork squads, and a terrible stadium location. For all the people who credit Jerry as being a good businessman, the franchise would be 2x as valuable if he had made smart moves rather than being sewer-dwelling, parking lot miser he is.

Moving to Nashville (25th media market, 1.2m population) makes zero sense.

Jerry will be gone soon, one can only hope.

[caulfield12]

32 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

1) Will the Angels ever outdraw the Dodgers? Will the Mets ever outdraw the Yankees? Will Oakland ever outdraw the Giants? 2) Will the White Sox ever outdraw the Cubs?  As long as the White Sox play at this present location in this present stadium, probably not. Building this stadium at the present location was the biggest mistake in the modern history of the franchise. Then they built a stadium where nobody wants to sit  in most of the upper deck. If the Cubs played at the present White Sox stadium does anybody really think they would be drawing like they do now? 3) I'm hoping when this team gets new ownership a new stadium will be built  in a more popular location and the stadium will have a upper deck that fans will want to sit in.  3) I think the present stadium lease runs out  after the 2028 season. It will be curious to see how this plays out.

“In response to an unkind Yankee fan on r/baseball, I got curious about the ups and downs of Mets and Yankees attendance history. I created this spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18p_VY6K3V742F3kVCOLvtGIcs7cHFJhEglD24uB6sx8/edit?usp=sharing

... comparing the two teams' yearly attendance with their winning percentages. Cells are highlighted red when the Mets outdrew the Yankees (21/53 years) and when the Mets' record was better than the Yankees (13/51 years; there were two seasons when the teams had identical records).

Some findings:

When the Mets had a better record than the Yankees (13 seasons), the Mets sold more tickets than the Yankees 12/13 of those years.

When the Yankees had a better record than the Mets (38 seasons), the Mets sold more tickets than the Yankees 9/38 of those years.

Both teams' attendance peaked the same year, 2008: Mets 4,042,045, Yankees 4,298,655. Coincidentally, both teams were 89-73 that season.

Overall, it looks like when the Mets are good - basically, 1969-1973 and 1984-1990 - attendance reflects it. And even when the Mets weren't good in their early years (1964-1975), they still drew more fans than the Yanks. Since 1992, though, most of the winning and the ticket sales have been in the Yankees' favor.”

 

Attendance

Dodgers, 2011: 2.94 million

Angels, 2011: 3.17 million

Dodgers, five-year average: 3.57 million

Angels, five-year average: 3.27 million

Edge: Angels. 2011 was the first season the Angels outdrew the Dodgers as there was an obvious protest against owner Frank McCourt that factored in, but maybe it was a turning points in Dodgers-Angels history. After all, the Angels now have Chris Iannetta. P.S: Don't tell Donnie Baseball that during his 13 seasons with the Yankees the Mets outdrew the Yanks eight times.

 

https://imgur.com/a/YjfQk

The Giants only really took over as the bay area's more popular baseball team when they got a new stadium in a cool neighborhood. The fact is, when they were in Candlestick, no one wanted to go to Giants games.

[WBWSF]

16 minutes ago, shago said:

Imagine a downtown stadium and an owner who cared about winning. Sox would be a huge draw. They are still relatively popular with decades of shit mgmt, yawn patchwork squads, and a terrible stadium location. For all the people who credit Jerry as being a good businessman, the franchise would be 2x as valuable if he had made smart moves rather than being sewer-dwelling, parking lot miser he is.

Moving to Nashville (25th media market, 1.2m population) makes zero sense.

Jerry will be gone soon, one can only hope.

In the mid 1980s, the City of Chicago wanted to build a new stadium for the White Sox in the South Loop at Roosevelt and Clark. (Now known as block 78) JR  rejected the offer  and wanted the new stadium built in Addison, where he owned the land. That South loop location is still open. Maybe the next ownership will build it there.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Kyyle23 said:

Never once cared about this 

Then JR has won.  Stockholm Syndrome.  Eventually an owner will run $200+ million payrolls as owner of the Sox and not even blink.

Thinking there’s no competition with the Cubs or pretending it doesn’t exist also won’t solve or address the problem at all.

[shago]

13 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

In the mid 1980s, the City of Chicago wanted to build a new stadium for the White Sox in the South Loop at Roosevelt and Clark. (Now known as block 78) JR  rejected the offer  and wanted the new stadium built in Addison, where he owned the land. That South loop location is still open. Maybe the next ownership will build it there.

Yep, my point ?, JR would have made a lot more money and his franchise would be worth lot more had he done what was right for the fans. Instead, he wanted more parking revenue. He's an asshat and we will all be better off when he's gone.

[caulfield12]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/194606/mlb-franchise-value-of-the-chicago-white-sox-since-2006/

#15 still “mired in mediocrity”

Edited July 17, 2022 by caulfield12

[Kyyle23]

26 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Then JR has won.  Stockholm Syndrome.  Eventually an owner will run $200+ million payrolls as owner of the Sox and not even blink.

Thinking there’s no competition with the Cubs or pretending it doesn’t exist also won’t solve or address the problem at all.

JR didn’t win anything, my fandom is my own and I can’t control everyone else’s.  I don’t worry about outdrawing the cubs like you do because it doesn’t matter to me.  Also outdrawing the cubs doesn’t mean an instant 200M payroll

[The Mighty Mite]

8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The last time this happened was 30 years ago, 1992, the second year of New Comiskey.

I was 22 years old then, which means that almost two generations have come into a Cubs-dominated world.

 

Right now, in the midst of our supposed multiple championship/s window, we are 18th in the major leagues in attendance.

24,246 per game, unlikely to break the two million mark and just as plausibly finishing at 1.8 million or so.

 

The Cubs just drew 34,366 and 39,219 for a split doubleheader with the Mets.  They have yet another unprecedented losing streak going, are heading for 100 losses, and are soon to trade Contreras, Happ, Robertson and possibly Hendricks.

Yet they’re STILL 7th in MLB attendance, at 32,574, just barely behind the 6th place Astros who have five consecutive ALCS appearances at 32,756.  Around 2.45 - 2.6 million projected attendance.

 

I don’t expect the White Sox will ever outdraw the Cubs again…in my lifetime.

Unless they:

1) Build a new stadium/relocate in Chicagoland (why this is unlikely we know all too well)

2) Relocate to another city/market

3) JR steps aside and a new ownership group and/or Melanie Hobson et al run things in a completely new and innovative way, basically starting over from scratch

It’s almost sacrilege to talk about leaving Chicago, but with ongoing flight from the city/state due to taxes…and the A’s and possibly Rays as well both on the move, not to mention the stadium lease coming up relatively soon (Texas has now had three stadiums in the same timeframe), it’s hard to imagine this not being considered by at least SOMEONE with deep/er pockets than the Reinsdorf group.

Yes, the Sox are still highly or relatively profitable right now…but that situation seems ever more tenuous if the current rebuild falls completely flat.  

I know everyone talks about the 70’s and most of the 80’s as being “down times” for the franchise, but it’s really hard to imagine things looking much bleaker.

 

Yet the best hope seems to be remaining in the AL Central and centralized Chicago location, where they can outspend the competition by 25-50%, if only because the odds of success would be even less on the East or West Coasts.

The only way to stay in a Central division (AL or NL) would be moving to Nashville, San Antonio/Austin (two Western teams in TX already), or Charlotte, but then they would be east and north of the Braves.  Indianapolis and Memphis aren’t quite big enough, same with Louisville.  Mexico City seems too crazy.

 

Does anyone see a way out of this other than firing TLR, Hahn, KW or changing ownership?  How?

And would signing Machado, Harper, Wheeler, etc. really have “saved” the franchise, or even for example trading for Juan Soto and giving him $450-500 million?

 

I grew up in the 50s and 60s and we outdrew the Cubs just about every year until the late 60s, the riots of 1968 really hurt the franchise but we bounced back in the Dick Allen days and until 1984 things were about even, the Sox  were the first team to draw 2 million in 1983 but when the Cubs won in 1984 things really turned around. Harry Caray moving to the Cubs along with the Tribune buying them was huge, they marketed Wrigley Field like it was watching a game in heaven. When WGN became a Super Station, people all over the country saw games at Wrigley on TV and put a visit to Chicago and Wrigley Field on their bucket list. Wrigley in the daytime looked so good on TV, almost like the Garden of Eden.

The Sox could come close with a new stadium near Downtown or somewhere in the western suburbs in the middle of the metro area, I think just west of Hillside or close to Oak Brook would be ideal, not hard to get to from any of the northern or southern burbs by expressway and an extension of the Eisenhower CTA line would help getting people from the city to the park.

It was a huge mistake to build new Comiskey at 35th and Shields but when the Addison deal was voted down the Sox had no choice, there are just too many people in the area that won't take in a game on the Southside of Chicago.

It's sort of sad and though we came close in 1991 and again in 2006, the Sox are only 1 of a few teams in MLB that have never drawn 3 million to Sox Park

Edited July 17, 2022 by The Mighty Mite

[WBWSF]

There have been rumors for years that the Wirtz family will be the next owners of the White Sox. They would then build a stadium near the United Center.

[Kyyle23]

7 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

There have been rumors for years that the Wirtz family will be the next owners of the White Sox. They would then build a stadium near the United Center.

Rumors that start here, with you lol 

[The Mighty Mite]

24 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

There have been rumors for years that the Wirtz family will be the next owners of the White Sox. They would then build a stadium near the United Center.

Never heard that one but the again we have been in Florida since 1993.

I'm not sure how I  feel about a stadium near United Center, just west of the loop would be better where working people and hotel visitors could walk to the ballpark.

Edited July 17, 2022 by The Mighty Mite

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, WBWSF said:

There have been rumors for years that the Wirtz family will be the next owners of the White Sox. They would then build a stadium near the United Center.

Where have these rumors circulated?  Perhaps they’ve circulated entirely within your head?  Never once heard that the Wirtz family is next in line nor anything about building a new stadium near the UC.  I call BS. 

[Tnetennba]

re Cubs attendance, who fucking cares?  If tourists want to flock to overpriced faux nostalgia, let them.  Less dumbass tourists to navigate through going to the places that I enjoy.  Also, always and forever, fuck the Cubs. 

[shago]

One guy by the name of Mike Jordan should buy this club. Get a bunch of hype around it. Revamp Charlotte buzz with the AAA feeder. 

Dude likes beisbol, no?