ChiSox59 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: That’s a YUGE assumption. I’ll take the under on a 1.4 fWAR betting line for next season. That’s a marginal upgrade at best. And your assumptions aren’t huge? I love fWAR as much as the next guy but how hard is it to understand that the Sox need lineup balance and a left handed hitting 1.5 fWAR guy that balances the lineup and actually hits righties well is more valuable than more of the same on this roster that can’t hit a righty if he was throwing a chicago softball? Sox probably aren’t signing Conforto. But it’s just amazing to me that people can’t understand how badly this team needs a good left handed bat (or 3), even after watching this offense flail for 3 months. Conforto is the definition of a good left handed bat. Edited July 21, 2022 by ChiSox59 Typed too fast in my phone as my head is exploding explaining this easy concept 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: What was his fWAR before last season? What was Harrisons fWAR before last season? I have a feeling they weren't close. Harrison was 2.2 last season and 0.2 the season before. 2.4 in total. Conforto was 1.4 and 2.0. 3.4 in total. One coming off a major injury and missed season, the other not. One much more expensive in dollar terms as well. I don’t understand the logic to detesting the Harrison signing but advocating for a Conforto signing. Both are marginal upgrades but one is cheap at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: And your assumptions aren’t huge? I love fWAR as much as the next guy but how hard is it to understand that the Sox need lineup balance and a left handed hitting 1.5 fWAR guy that balances the lineup and actually hits righties well is more valuable than more of the same on this roster that can’t hit a righty if he was throwing a chicago softball? Sox probably aren’t signing Conforto. But it’s just amazing to me that people can’t understand how badly this team needs a good left handed bat (or 3), even after watching this offense flail for 3 months. Conforto is the definition of a good left handed bat. Sox are on pace for ~1.5 fWAR out of RF this season. Assuming Conforto will outperform that mark next season is a big assumption and an unnecessary risk for a marginal upgrade at best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted July 21, 2022 Author Share Posted July 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: What was his fWAR before last season? What was Harrisons fWAR before last season? I have a feeling they weren't close. HEFTY HEFTY HEFTY Conforto bWAR (3.4 bWAR per 162 average): Age 22 (56 Games) 2.1 Age 23 (109) 0.6 Age 24 (109) 3.7 Age 25 (153) 2.7 Age 26 (151) 3.6 Age 27 (54 - Owner Lockout) 2.1 Age 28 (125) 1.3 WIMPY WIMPY WIMPY Josh Harrison - bWAR 2018-2022 (Ages 30-34): 0.5, (1.0), 0.5, 2.1, 1.0 (Average per season 0.6) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Harrison was 2.2 last season and 0.2 the season before. 2.4 in total. Conforto was 1.4 and 2.0. 3.4 in total. One coming off a major injury and missed season, the other not. One much more expensive in dollar terms as well. I don’t understand the logic to detesting the Harrison signing but advocating for a Conforto signing. Both are marginal upgrades but one is cheap at least. And if we used a larger sample like 5 years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said: HEFTY HEFTY HEFTY Conforto bWAR (3.4 bWAR per 162 average): Age 22 (56 Games) 2.1 Age 23 (109) 0.6 Age 24 (109) 3.7 Age 25 (153) 2.7 Age 26 (151) 3.6 Age 27 (54 - Owner Lockout) 2.1 Age 28 (125) 1.3 WIMPY WIMPY WIMPY Josh Harrison - bWAR 2018-2022 (Ages 30-34): 0.5, (1.0), 0.5, 2.1, 1.0 (Average per season 0.6) @JUSTgottaBELIEVE.. Looks like SouthSide did the work for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 33 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: So while you focus on his injury year, you ignore his previous years were 3.7, 2.7, 3.6 and 2.1 in a sixty game season. That is his bWAR for those seasons. fWAR values him even higher (4.8, 3.7, 4.4 and 2.0 in 60). Me.likey.Conforto 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said: HEFTY HEFTY HEFTY Conforto bWAR (3.4 bWAR per 162 average): Age 22 (56 Games) 2.1 Age 23 (109) 0.6 Age 24 (109) 3.7 Age 25 (153) 2.7 Age 26 (151) 3.6 Age 27 (54 - Owner Lockout) 2.1 Age 28 (125) 1.3 WIMPY WIMPY WIMPY Josh Harrison - bWAR 2018-2022 (Ages 30-34): 0.5, (1.0), 0.5, 2.1, 1.0 (Average per season 0.6) Oh yea. Using that logic, we should take Patrick Corbin off the hands of the Nationals. You know because he was good like 3 years ago. And I sure hope you aren’t one of those guys that wants to trade Grandal, Moncada, or Eloy. Because those guys have been great at some point within the past 5 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: @JUSTgottaBELIEVE.. Looks like SouthSide did the work for you. Then why do a bunch of people on this site want to trade Moncada? Or Grandal? Those guys were amazing as recently as last season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, ron883 said: That is his bWAR for those seasons. fWAR values him even higher (4.8, 3.7, 4.4 and 2.0 in 60). Me.likey.Conforto What about this season or last? How relevant is pre-2020 at this point? What price are you willing to pay? Because he’s gonna ask $15M+ AAV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted July 21, 2022 Author Share Posted July 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Oh yea. Using that logic, we should take Patrick Corbin off the hands of the Nationals. You know because he was good like 3 years ago. And I sure hope you aren’t one of those guys that wants to trade Grandal, Moncada, or Eloy. Because those guys have been great at some point within the past 5 years. Age 28 Conforto Ages 33-35 Corbin, Grandal, Keuchel & Lynn Love Moncada. Would trade Eloy because he still has value but has no track record of ever staying healthy, being a quality OF or being able to DH (his DH spilts are awful). Eloy's fWARs are 1.4, 1.7, 0.5, -0.4. Eloy's best two seasons are comparable to Conforto's 2021. Anyway, my phone is charged, so my work here is done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Then why do a bunch of people on this site want to trade Moncada? Or Grandal? Those guys were amazing as recently as last season. Because they're fans who are impatient and want success now. Sox need more players with the offensive profile of Moncada and Grandal (when playing to their abilities), not less. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: What about this season or last? How relevant is pre-2020 at this point? What price are you willing to pay? Because he’s gonna ask $15M+ AAV. You don't know what he's going to ask. Enough with the fake news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said: Because they're fans who are impatient and want success now. Sox need more players with the offensive profile of Moncada and Grandal (when playing to their abilities), not less. “Why do all of our hitters swing at the first pitch?!?! How about we work the count a little for once??? Oh yeah, and why can’t we get some left handed power in our lineup??? Also, by the way, we need to get rid of Moncada and Grandal. Those guys are bums.” 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: What about this season or last? How relevant is pre-2020 at this point? What price are you willing to pay? Because he’s gonna ask $15M+ AAV. Out of curiosity did you want to ditch Michael Kopech because he put up 0 war in 2019 and 2020? Did you want to not resign Carlos Rodon because he put up -0.4 WAR in 2019 and 2020? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said: Age 28 Conforto Ages 33-35 Corbin, Grandal, Keuchel & Lynn Love Moncada. Would trade Eloy because he still has value but has no track record of ever staying healthy, being a quality OF or being able to DH (his DH spilts are awful). Eloy's fWARs are 1.4, 1.7, 0.5, -0.4. Eloy's best two seasons are comparable to Conforto's 2021. Anyway, my phone is charged, so my work here is done. Age isn’t everything. Sure looks like guys like Bellinger, Bryant, and Baez peaked when they were young. Guys like Semien, Hendriks, JD Martinez didn’t peak until later in their careers. It’s certainly possible Conforto’s best days are already behind him much like Corbin, Grandal, Keuchel, and Lynn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 28 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: Because they're fans who are impatient and want success now. Sox need more players with the offensive profile of Moncada and Grandal (when playing to their abilities), not less. Then sign Nimmo. Simple. Conforto is fool’s gold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 (edited) 27 minutes ago, ron883 said: You don't know what he's going to ask. Enough with the fake news. Ban bet? I guarantee he asks $15M+ AAV and very likely gets it too. Edited July 21, 2022 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 25 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said: “Why do all of our hitters swing at the first pitch?!?! How about we work the count a little for once??? Oh yeah, and why can’t we get some left handed power in our lineup??? Also, by the way, we need to get rid of Moncada and Grandal. Those guys are bums.” Exactly. There’s no consistency from people on here. They just want to complain about what the Sox have and always think the grass is greener elsewhere. News flash, the grass isn’t always greener and the odds are very high that 99% of Soxtalk would be complaining about Conforto one year from now if they signed him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Out of curiosity did you want to ditch Michael Kopech because he put up 0 war in 2019 and 2020? Did you want to not resign Carlos Rodon because he put up -0.4 WAR in 2019 and 2020? I’ve been one of Kopech’s biggest supporters so no. I am not a fan of Rodon. He was great last season and had a good first half this season but I still don’t trust his arm to hold up. And I think the Sox have far bigger issues elsewhere on the roster outside of the starting rotation. If you want to give Rodon his next 4 year, $100M+ contract after next season (if he stays healthy), good luck to you fine sir. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 45 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Then why do a bunch of people on this site want to trade Moncada? Or Grandal? Those guys were amazing as recently as last season. They too live in recentsy bias mode. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Ban bet? I guarantee he asks $15M+ AAV and very likely gets it too. I'd gladly give him the 15 AAV. Prior to this injury I was all on board at 20-25 AAV. I'd still be on board with 15 AAV. A big discount for his shoulder injury and a year off seems reasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Just now, Squirmin' for Yermin said: They too live in recentsy bias mode. Some of it is deserved though. Like Grandal. I’d dump him for nothing if someone would take his salary. Then again, I’ve never been a big fan of Grandal and even less so after watching him play more often over the past three seasons. But that’s a different topic altogether. Forget Conforto, go get Soto (with Nimmo as the fall back option). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: I’ve been one of Kopech’s biggest supporters so no. I am not a fan of Rodon. He was great last season and had a good first half this season but I still don’t trust his arm to hold up. And I think the Sox have far bigger issues elsewhere on the roster outside of the starting rotation. If you want to give Rodon his next 4 year, $100M+ contract after next season (if he stays healthy), good luck to you fine sir. But they didn't put up any numbers for two years and how would you know that after three years they would still be good? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Just now, Squirmin' for Yermin said: I'd gladly give him the 15 AAV. Prior to this injury I was all on board at 20-25 AAV. I'd still be on board with 15 AAV. A big discount for his shoulder injury and a year off seems reasonable. Not me. Rather take my chances with what they’ve already got than take on another dead weight contract. Don’t need another corner OF/DH type unless it’s a big upgrade like Nimmo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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