Jack Parkman Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: JMO - they're going to "run it back" next season. If they miss the playoffs, they may fire Rick Hahn, but otherwise similar coaching staff. Because of the amount of money committed to the roster next year and the players who have underperformed, it will make it very difficult for whoever the GM is to make substantial moves this offseason. Next year's club will look a lot like this year's club, and they'll hope that the results come through better That's the other option. They either trade the good players and tear it down, or run it back one more time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: That's the other option. They either trade the good players and tear it down, or run it back one more time. The only guys who would be easy to trade are Kopech, Cease, Vaughn, Anderson, Robert - there's very little pushing them to trade those guys. Not a lot of money cleared if you move them, none of them are impending FAs after the season. Many of them worth more if you wait a few months or a year. The guys who you would trade if you wanted to clear money - Lynn, Grandal, Leury, Kelly- unmovable based on their performance unless you pay someone to take them. So, those guys are going to be back next year. The guys who you wish would bring back players if they were traded - Eloy, Moncada, Giolito - underperformed so badly that they wouldn't bring a return to justify moving them. Someone is taking a flyer on those guys rather than giving the White Sox anything that makes them better. That means most of the "core" of this roster is highly likely to come back. Some guys who are movable - Graveman, Hendriks, Lopez - if you move them great, but you wind up needing to replace them and spending comparable money on them. Plus, Hendriks has a contract that makes moving him way harder. They could do something surprising, but I think it's very likely you'll see something quite close to the current roster next year. The guys you can move you shouldn't move, and the guys you'd want to move are very difficult to move. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: The only guys who would be easy to trade are Kopech, Cease, Vaughn, Anderson, Robert - there's very little pushing them to trade those guys. Not a lot of money cleared if you move them, none of them are impending FAs after the season. Many of them worth more if you wait a few months or a year. The guys who you would trade if you wanted to clear money - Lynn, Grandal, Leury, Kelly- unmovable based on their performance unless you pay someone to take them. So, those guys are going to be back next year. The guys who you wish would bring back players if they were traded - Eloy, Moncada, Giolito - underperformed so badly that they wouldn't bring a return to justify moving them. Someone is taking a flyer on those guys rather than giving the White Sox anything that makes them better. That means most of the "core" of this roster is highly likely to come back. Some guys who are movable - Graveman, Hendriks, Lopez - if you move them great, but you wind up needing to replace them and spending comparable money on them. Plus, Hendriks has a contract that makes moving him way harder. They could do something surprising, but I think it's very likely you'll see something quite close to the current roster next year. The guys you can move you shouldn't move, and the guys you'd want to move are very difficult to move. I really think they should consider trading Anderson and Cease this winter. They could get a ton (as long as other teams don't realize Anderson has turned into what Madrigal was supposed to be) Cease hired Boras and is entering his arb years. He's great and won't re-sign. Edited August 2, 2022 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 Just now, Jack Parkman said: I really think they should consider trading Anderson and Cease this winter. They could get a ton (as long as other teams don't realize Anderson has turned into what Madrigal was supposed to be) In the long term that could make them better, but it leaves the 2023 team vastly worse while they're sitting there with all those expensive assets tied down. Furthermore with Cease - unless he gets hurt, no reason to think his value declines much during '23. Paying Lynn, Grandal, etc. big money in '23 while stripping those guys out isn't a strategy that makes any sense to me. Play the first half, see if somehow things come together in a way they didn't this year, and reevaluate in July. Cease might well be worth more at the deadline anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: In the long term that could make them better, but it leaves the 2023 team vastly worse while they're sitting there with all those expensive assets tied down. Furthermore with Cease - unless he gets hurt, no reason to think his value declines much during '23. Paying Lynn, Grandal, etc. big money in '23 while stripping those guys out isn't a strategy that makes any sense to me. Play the first half, see if somehow things come together in a way they didn't this year, and reevaluate in July. Cease might well be worth more at the deadline anyway. I think some of the expensive players might get salary dumped. They'll trade them for nothing. Grandal, Pollock and Moncada will be hard to trade. I think they might be able to get someone to bite on Lynn as a pure salary dump, mostly because it's just one year. Sox might have to pick up some money. While I think it's unlikely, there's like a 1-5% chance Giolito gets non-tendered. It depends on how desperate they are to cut payroll. If they do run it back, the team we see now is the team we have next year, minus Cueto. Edited August 2, 2022 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ducksnort Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 If there wasn't more important things to get pissed off about, I'd lead a protest to burn down g-rate field. Partly in protest of that horrible name for a ballpark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominikk85 Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 13 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: That's the other option. They either trade the good players and tear it down, or run it back one more time. The issue with tearing it down again will be the same as last time though, the top 10-12 players of the roster are very good and the bottom 10-12 are quite bad due to mediocre player dev, drafting and international non cuba signings. That means sox can be very good if everyone is healthy but when 2 or 3 key guys are injured it gets tough. I think the sox need to ride it out with this core and maybe trade them with one year of control left but if you trade the core for new prospects you likely are in the same situation as 2 years ago and maybe worse if less of the prospects pan out. Don't forget the rebuild actually did work out very well, most of the top prospects reached about their ceilings, that could have gone much worse. The issue was that the sox weren't able to develope complimentary pieces around those guys so they are forced to play a minus 1 war guy like mazara or encarnacion for a whole season because there are no replacement. They wouldn't have needed to develope stars, just some 1.5 war guys that are there just in case and they weren't able to do it. If you want to tear down it only makes sense if analytics and player dev department can be brought up to at least a top 10-12 status in mlb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 Balta lays out the problems. Extending so many promising young major-leaguers really takes away a lot of flexibility. Sign Moncada long-term, but what if you have a couple of good 3B prospects coming up? You'd like the flexibility to move him or let him go. So many things led us to this, including just poor work on the farm during the rebuild (including selling international money for AAAA players). And then you have this offseason with a bloated contract for L Garcia, and this Joe Kelly signing at what was probably 2x market. Still, some savvy GM work could rehab this. Astros had a core of 4: Bregman, Altuve, Correa and Springer. 2 have left the nest, and the Astros haven't missed a beat. At this point, try to win the division and hope to hell that Sheets and Eloy and Giolito and Lynn have a great last 2 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 20 hours ago, Balta1701 said: The only guys who would be easy to trade are Kopech, Cease, Vaughn, Anderson, Robert - there's very little pushing them to trade those guys. Not a lot of money cleared if you move them, none of them are impending FAs after the season. Many of them worth more if you wait a few months or a year. The guys who you would trade if you wanted to clear money - Lynn, Grandal, Leury, Kelly- unmovable based on their performance unless you pay someone to take them. So, those guys are going to be back next year. The guys who you wish would bring back players if they were traded - Eloy, Moncada, Giolito - underperformed so badly that they wouldn't bring a return to justify moving them. Someone is taking a flyer on those guys rather than giving the White Sox anything that makes them better. That means most of the "core" of this roster is highly likely to come back. Some guys who are movable - Graveman, Hendriks, Lopez - if you move them great, but you wind up needing to replace them and spending comparable money on them. Plus, Hendriks has a contract that makes moving him way harder. They could do something surprising, but I think it's very likely you'll see something quite close to the current roster next year. The guys you can move you shouldn't move, and the guys you'd want to move are very difficult to move. Why no mention of Pollock’s $12-13 million next year? The type of bad contract that’s soaking up way too much payroll flexibility…and forcing him into the OD starting roster rather than actually finding more than a band-aid back up for? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 34 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Why no mention of Pollock’s $12-13 million next year? The type of bad contract that’s soaking up way too much payroll flexibility…and forcing him into the OD starting roster rather than actually finding more than a band-aid back up for? Drop him in the list of Lynn, Grandal, Leury, Kelly. You'd have to pay someone at least a portion of his money to get him off your roster right now. Probably wouldn't have to buy out the whole thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: Drop him in the list of Lynn, Grandal, Leury, Kelly. You'd have to pay someone at least a portion of his money to get him off your roster right now. Probably wouldn't have to buy out the whole thing. Hosmer ended up being about 1/2 subsidized, two Tier B/C prospects going along with him and Buddy Groome swapped to SD where he’s now #11. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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