Smoking brisket and baseballs - Kopech v. the ghost of Adam Eaton and Lance Lynn (Dane Dunning) 6:05pm

[he gone.]

Dunning: I think we all know a bit about him. For some reason though since he's got down to TX he's lost his signature control. Each of his seasons with the Sox (including minors) he had a whip under 1.19. It's been 1.43 each of the two years in TX. Does it matter? We struck out 12 times yesterday and took ONE walk. Incredible. I still dont get how Mennechino has a job. Baseball is like golf - you roll through swing coaches nonstop because a slight change can have massively different results. but i digress .... back to dunning. 

 

Dunning has walked 3+ in 6 of his last 8 games. He's also allowed 10, 7, 10, 8, 9, 8, 8 baserunners in those same games. Which is to say if we have an approach (we wont) we should have good traffic on the bases. Fundamentals (yikes) are going to play a role here ... good baserunning, smart decisions, etc. Unfortunately the things Dunning is good at we're bad at, and things we're bad at, he's bad at. For instance his chase rate is in the 78th percentile. He's going to throw sinker 40% of the time (HELLO ELOY!) and slider low and away 28% of hte time which leads to all those chases ... (OH NO MONCADA). Other than that he basically throws changeup low and inside. Easier said than done, but don't chase that slider and we're in great shape. his xBA on the slider is .217. His sinker just hasn't been very good in each of the last two years. Expect to see Sheets today in RF. Lefties hit .294 against Dunning and overall Dunning has a much worse WHIP against lefties w/ a 43:29 K/BB and a 1.70whip. Against righties he has a 1.17WHIP and 50/14 K:BB. We have to get to him early. Dunning has a respectable 4.70ERA in the first time around but hones in the second time around with a 2.85ERA. His day/night splits don't benefit us with a 3.90ERA at night (5+ during day) and his home away splits also are tough with a 3.42ERA at home v. a 5.12ERA on the road. On paper? This will be a frustrating game ... much like this whole season I guess. 

Sox Tidbits: Eloy mashes sinkers (point in case yesterday) as does Abreu. Those two will continue to be the key for the offense and will need to remain hot. Moncada does fine and will need to be in there regardless with the switch bat. Yaz on the other hand can't hit a sinker to save his life (nor any other pitch right now) but fear he'll be in there with L bat as well. You'll see Sheets in there no doubt. Pollock does very well against sinkers too and should be in there in CF over Engel. Don't kill the messenger you're going to see Leury Legend today too. He actually hits sinkers alright (.333BA this year !!) I think Robert was already sitting today?

My lineup:

SS: Anderson (I'd honestly consider dropping him if someone else wanted to step up ... just for a few games to shock him)

CF: Pollock

DH: Eloy

1B: Abreu

RF: Sheets

LF: Vaughn

3B: Yoan (woof)

C - Yaz (woof)

2B: Leury

 

Going to guess something like Rangers 4, Sox 2. Hope I'm wrong. 

Pick to Click: Eloy and wait for it ... Leury

[he gone.]

Also, just to add to the above, you know what I'd like to see? Drop Anderson to like 5th in the order. I want him to focus on his approach of driving the ball more. He's had a lack of power for several months now ... I'd like to put him in a position where he's got to take a different mental approach. 

[ron883]

Are you actually thinking brisket OP, or are you a filthy liar?

[Harold's Leg Lift]

It's a Kopech freak the fuck out game on a saturday. Fun!  His velocity is down .00000001!  ARRRRRRGGGGH!!!!!!

[Chicago White Sox]

51 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

It's a Kopech freak the fuck out game on a saturday. Fun!  His velocity is down .00000001!  ARRRRRRGGGGH!!!!!!

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Let’s try to score more than two runs today.  And maybe, just maybe we get one of those home run things.

[poppysox]

30 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Let’s try to score more than two runs today.  And maybe, just maybe we get one of those home run things.

This is one of my biggest complaints about TL's lineups.  When a lineup is playing dead...mix it up.  I remember Leo Derocher drawing the names out of a hat to determine 1 through 9 in order to wake his team up.  It's not like a lot of damage can be done to a team scoring 1 & 2 runs per game.

[2Deep]

2 hours ago, he gone. said:

Dunning: I think we all know a bit about him. For some reason though since he's got down to TX he's lost his signature control. Each of his seasons with the Sox (including minors) he had a whip under 1.19. It's been 1.43 each of the two years in TX. Does it matter? We struck out 12 times yesterday and took ONE walk. Incredible. I still dont get how Mennechino has a job. Baseball is like golf - you roll through swing coaches nonstop because a slight change can have massively different results. but i digress .... back to dunning. 

 

Dunning has walked 3+ in 6 of his last 8 games. He's also allowed 10, 7, 10, 8, 9, 8, 8 baserunners in those same games. Which is to say if we have an approach (we wont) we should have good traffic on the bases. Fundamentals (yikes) are going to play a role here ... good baserunning, smart decisions, etc. Unfortunately the things Dunning is good at we're bad at, and things we're bad at, he's bad at. For instance his chase rate is in the 78th percentile. He's going to throw sinker 40% of the time (HELLO ELOY!) and slider low and away 28% of hte time which leads to all those chases ... (OH NO MONCADA). Other than that he basically throws changeup low and inside. Easier said than done, but don't chase that slider and we're in great shape. his xBA on the slider is .217. His sinker just hasn't been very good in each of the last two years. Expect to see Sheets today in RF. Lefties hit .294 against Dunning and overall Dunning has a much worse WHIP against lefties w/ a 43:29 K/BB and a 1.70whip. Against righties he has a 1.17WHIP and 50/14 K:BB. We have to get to him early. Dunning has a respectable 4.70ERA in the first time around but hones in the second time around with a 2.85ERA. His day/night splits don't benefit us with a 3.90ERA at night (5+ during day) and his home away splits also are tough with a 3.42ERA at home v. a 5.12ERA on the road. On paper? This will be a frustrating game ... much like this whole season I guess. 

Sox Tidbits: Eloy mashes sinkers (point in case yesterday) as does Abreu. Those two will continue to be the key for the offense and will need to remain hot. Moncada does fine and will need to be in there regardless with the switch bat. Yaz on the other hand can't hit a sinker to save his life (nor any other pitch right now) but fear he'll be in there with L bat as well. You'll see Sheets in there no doubt. Pollock does very well against sinkers too and should be in there in CF over Engel. Don't kill the messenger you're going to see Leury Legend today too. He actually hits sinkers alright (.333BA this year !!) I think Robert was already sitting today?

My lineup:

SS: Anderson (I'd honestly consider dropping him if someone else wanted to step up ... just for a few games to shock him)

CF: Pollock

DH: Eloy

1B: Abreu

RF: Sheets

LF: Vaughn

3B: Yoan (woof)

C - Yaz (woof)

2B: Leury

 

Going to guess something like Rangers 4, Sox 2. Hope I'm wrong. 

Pick to Click: Eloy and wait for it ... Leury

Great write up.

Dunning will have a good game tonight because we are the perfect match up for him. He does not have command and we have no patience or approach with a pitcher like this. 

[2Deep]

2 minutes ago, poppysox said:

This is one of my biggest complaints about TL's lineups.  When a lineup is playing dead...mix it up.  I remember Leo Derocher drawing the names out of a hat to determine 1 through 9 in order to wake his team up.  It's not like a lot of damage can be done to a team scoring 1 & 2 runs per game.

Mix it up but Eloy stays at 3

[ChiSox59]

42 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

 

But but but

[Bob Sacamano]

47 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

 

 

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

But but but

He won’t respond anyway.

[he gone.]

not to cherry pick, but Kopech was in the pen last year. he has had to become more of a pitcher due to pitching more innings this year. we were always going to hit a wall with kopech this year which is why we NEEDED a quintana type trade. it was less about the trade or who we got, more that we need someone who can throw innings and give kopech a phantom rest. 

I personally think you'll see a bit of this down the stretch with VV or Reynaldo - pair one of those guys as a piggyback on Kopech and limit him to 3ip. Either that, or we need a fake IL stint. He did 70ip last year, and 95 thus far. 

(this line of thought is if you believe in innings limitations -- i personally think he should be able to go 150ip this year no problem)

[CentralChamps21]

7 minutes ago, he gone. said:

not to cherry pick, but Kopech was in the pen last year. he has had to become more of a pitcher due to pitching more innings this year. we were always going to hit a wall with kopech this year which is why we NEEDED a quintana type trade. it was less about the trade or who we got, more that we need someone who can throw innings and give kopech a phantom rest. 

I personally think you'll see a bit of this down the stretch with VV or Reynaldo - pair one of those guys as a piggyback on Kopech and limit him to 3ip. Either that, or we need a fake IL stint. He did 70ip last year, and 95 thus far. 

(this line of thought is if you believe in innings limitations -- i personally think he should be able to go 150ip this year no problem)

My guess is once Velasquez is back, he takes Kopech's spot in the rotation once or twice.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

 

He hasn't been right since the knee problem. 

[ChiSox59]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

He hasn't been right since the knee problem. 

Yep. I thought his stuff looked pretty good last start. He hit 98 a few times. Slider looked lively. Hopefully a step in the right direction. 

[whitesoxwin]

White Sox need to come out tonight firing on all cylinders and take care of business early and often. Maybe, just maybe, the tide is starting to turn in their favor, let's hope so anyway.

[Texsox]

3 hours ago, ron883 said:

Are you actually thinking brisket OP, or are you a filthy liar?

Brisket with a bark as black as the MLB tv coverage I'll receive for tonight's game. 

[Texsox]

25 minutes ago, whitesoxwin said:

White Sox need to come out tonight firing on all cylinders and take care of business early and often. Maybe, just maybe, the tide is starting to turn in their favor, let's hope so anyway.

That would wake me up. I'm still waiting to exhale. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, he gone. said:

not to cherry pick, but Kopech was in the pen last year. he has had to become more of a pitcher due to pitching more innings this year. we were always going to hit a wall with kopech this year which is why we NEEDED a quintana type trade. it was less about the trade or who we got, more that we need someone who can throw innings and give kopech a phantom rest. 

I personally think you'll see a bit of this down the stretch with VV or Reynaldo - pair one of those guys as a piggyback on Kopech and limit him to 3ip. Either that, or we need a fake IL stint. He did 70ip last year, and 95 thus far. 

(this line of thought is if you believe in innings limitations -- i personally think he should be able to go 150ip this year no problem)

Quintana would've been good for pairing with Kopech because he throws LH . When you pair pitchers up you usually want to go with someone who throws with the opposite hand than the starter . So if the lineup is loaded with LHH they then have to face a LHP and it may force the opposing manager to make some early changes. VV or Lopez are not ideal for that situation. Plus Reylo, whenever we see him again, is now a late inning guy.

[The Kids Can Play]

Here is a novel idea, how about the Sox maybe try to score more than the last two game averages of:  2 runs, 5.5 hits, 1 HR, 3.5 BB's (note: the first game of 6 walks was an aberration), and most importantly, 10.5 K's a game. 

[reiks12]

unrelated to the game but check out this bulls/sox jersey mashup. I would love to see the Sox play in something like that for a while. Mercy!

 

[reiks12]

Also looks like Toronto hits Bundy pretty well in their careers, other than Vlad Jr and Chapman

[ron883]

18 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Brisket with a bark as black as the MLB tv coverage I'll receive for tonight's game. 

Fuck, I need to get a new smoker 

[elrockinMT]

Let’s not forget to strive mightily to win the game 

[hi8is]

58 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

unrelated to the game but check out this bulls/sox jersey mashup. I would love to see the Sox play in something like that for a while. Mercy!

 

Dude. Someone needs to send this to Brooks.