Gambling Thread (MLB)

[he gone.]

I do a lot of gambling and a lot of gambling research. figure I'd share it if people want to tail. this is good info for both daily leagues and prop bets too. 

Guys I like today (9/4)

Lindor, Alonso, mcneil - all do very well in H2H pitching matchups. Of those I like McNeil the most. Alonso total bases over 1.5

Tommy Edman total bases over 1.5 and Corey Dickerson. Goldschmidt should have a nice day at the plate too. 

Nico hoerner going off at +160 on Total bases. Hits almost .500 against Mikolas

LOVE LOVE LOVE

Mookie, Xander and Edman to hit over 1.5 or to have doubles today too. You can find doubles bets on many sportsbooks and they pay +300 - +450. There's a combo in here ... I've done a doubles parlay and if you pair 3 guys together and it hits its usually paying about 100X. $25 bet wins $2500 or so. Find a book with those three and a doubles bet and either RR it or parlay it and it'll pay very handsome. 

 Very much like the overs in STL and MIA games. Atlanta has a good history against Pablo and Miami surprisingly has hit Fried alright. Stroman and Mikolas have been poor against their respective opponents. 

On the Sox front loving Abreu and Vaughn. Abreu does very well against Bundy in career and has hits in 8/10 + over 1.5 Total bases in 4/5. Pays about even. Same with Vaughn. Hits in 8/10. 

 

Last but not least for Total bases

Ty France and Nate Lowe. 

 

[pettie4sox]

I tend to avoid prop bets because you can get screwed the most by them.  Make sure you read your betting website rules on them so you don't lose unnecessary money.

[he gone.]

been doing very well all year on prop bets. the key is taking in a lot of information and then filtering it down to the best. for example my daily routine is:

MLB.com - review all head to head matchups. take all the matchups that are strong head to head and put to side. filter those results out to those with larger sample size (15abs) and above. 

ballparkpal.com - check ballpark conditions. check for wind conditions, rain, temp and how it affects how the ballpark plays

cbssports.com - check game logs for pitchers, L4 starts. look for any trends. filter out who is a flyball guy, sinker baller, etc. (aka Stroman/Mikolas today - both will allow balls in play by their nature). 

pitcherlist.com - check what these guys have to say in terms of starts. some guys CSW data, etc. isn't great so good to have that perspective. 

Find a pitcher that isn't pitching well of late and underlying data isn't great - go to baseballsavant.com and check out his pitching profile. what does he throw ... if he's throwing sliders or sinkers or whatever the pitch at a high clip and its xwOBA xera type numbers are bad? then go to the corresponding team and run their L7 stats, find a hot bat, and run his baseball savant page to see if any of those hot guys are hitting those sliders/sinkers/etc well. 

Run L7 and L14 stats on bats across the MLB. Who has the most total bases over the last 7 and last 14? 

Run the doubles leaders for MLB on a full season and L30 basis. 

If there are names that are inside of that venn diagram (great H2H matchups with a larger sample size, L14 days Total bases, L30 doubles leader) then I'll bet them. 

 

Today that list is Edman, Boagerts, and Betts. Betts only has a sample size of 10ab's against Clevinger, so breaking one of my own rules, that said he has maybe the hottest bat in baseball over the last two weeks. 

 

For the sake of this board ... if these guys make my list they've been through the ringer. The doubles parlay is the ticket. Hit one bet at 100X? You are in the green for quite some time. If this equation hits even 5x all year? Your return is 500X - 150X losses... +350X

 

$20 bet = $2000 and hit 5X = 10,000

Lose $20 * 150 games = $3000

 

= $7,000 profit on a $20 unit bet or +350X 

 

(Boagerts is 1 for 1 with a double so far today btw)

[greg775]

Gambling is legal in Kansas now. Which company or two should I go with? Is it safe to give them your CC info? Most of the companies are giving free 200 worth of bets to get started to get one to sign up.

[he gone.]

20 hours ago, he gone. said:

Mookie, Xander and Edman to hit over 1.5 or to have doubles today too. You can find doubles bets on many sportsbooks and they pay +300 - +450. There's a combo in here ... I've done a doubles parlay and if you pair 3 guys together and it hits its usually paying about 100X. $25 bet wins $2500 or so. Find a book with those three and a doubles bet and either RR it or parlay it and it'll pay very handsome.

By the way ... this hit. dumb luck for it to be on my first post on this thread. but it paid 80X. $20 bet = $1,600. 

You'd be playing in the green for a LONG time with that bet. 

 

As a recap:

mcneil, edman, goldschmidt, dickerson, mookie, xander, ty france all hit 1.5 

abreu and lowe each had a hit

alonso, lindor, vaughn went hitless

Day one in the books at +82 units

[he gone.]

9/5 bets:

Like:

adley rutschman game 2 against berrios TB over 1.5

arenado, dickerson, pujols over 1.5 bases. anibal sanchez settling down of late. only 6 hits let up over L3 starts. these guys have great stats against him historically, but earlier this season didn't deliver. out of these i like them in the order presented from most to least. pujols just has old legs .. hard to get 2 bases for him. 

Love:

just like yesterday i take the guys who show up on the L7 through L30 for hot bats. Hitting doubles, making contact, getting on base etc. Check that against the league leaders in doubles, and then go through H2H historical matchups... if there are names on all 3 lists then they get to this list. Todays guys are:

Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Freddie Freeman and then a fudge factor on Justin Turner, Xander and Betts. The latter do not have a long  history H2H, under 10abs ... again, if you parlay 3 of them and it hits? It pays out like 80-100X. With one hitting yesterday the odds are it shouldn't hit for another 2.5 months .... so don't go crazy on it. I like throwing them in round robins as i feel the combo is somewhere within those 6 guys. Or do them as singles ... if you hit 2 of 6 you should still be up on the day. 

On the fence:

adrian houser over 2.5k's. colorado really struggling on offense of late, but coming back to coors is always a risk. just think he has enough to get 3k's. same on taillon. hitting the over at 3.5k's 

under in sox/seattle. both teams traveling late to seattle. historically seattle not great against lynn, nor are we against marco gonzalez. in particular andrus and abreu have a tough go. add in that ballpark ... dead ball ... feels like a 3-2 type final. 

[he gone.]

forgot, matt chapman game 2 as well. total bases

[he gone.]

Recap: Adley rutschman big game 2, chapman? not so much. Anibal sanchez has found something ... seemed like a great matchup on paper, but why it was in my like, not love category. Same with martin perez ... woof. tucker had a hit, but no extras, same with altuve. both pitcher props fell one short ... though the seattle game was spot on ... 3-2 final and the under. 

in the love section, TB hit on Xander, Freddie and Betts with only Betts hitting a double. Turner sat. Altuve and Tucker did not hit. 

Not a great day at the office, but I'm also chasing big hits while hopefully staying afloat until that hit. Luckily it was out of the way day 1 and it's house money. 

 

9/6 bets:

Don't love a whole ton today. Everything below kind of has a "but, this could go wrong angle"

$5 lotto ticket play: parlay of double from arozarena, devers and over 1.5 bases from boagerts. $5 pays $200. don't love this at all, hence why in lottery ticket category. arozarena has 6 doubles in 13 games, devers has 5 in 13 games and has heated up over the past weekend after being cold. simply put xander is one of the hottest bats in baseball right now. pitching matchups aren't great ... rasmussen has let up something like 9 hits over last 4-5 games TOTAL. but liken it to a scratch off. If you just feel like throwing $5 to the wind and playing some hot bats for the hell of it? this isn't a bad ticket. 

aaron judge over 1.5 bases. paying +106. has hit it in 5 of last 7 games. hit a homer in 3 straight. joe ryan has been letting up contact of late and particularly HR's. at end of the day, i'm riding the hot bat at plus money. 

the coors effect.. kuhl on mound. if you can find hiura on a book he's a great pick. otherwise, wong does well against righties and renfroe has been heating up - think he has like a 10 game hit streak. honestly? the brewers have been poor on offense of late, so not in love with these, especially since the books juice up coors. But getting 2 bases at coors can happen in many ways. I kind of like taking renfroe Total bases over 1.5 and then maybe pairing it with like Judge over 1.5 and should pay +250 or so. 

not sure where i land on oakland tonight. cole irvin has an under 2era at home. if i had to guess the line without seeing it, it's probably like -275 for atlanta on the road... which is asinine for someone who has been a solid pitcher in the MLB for a while and has under a 2era at home. That said ... atlanta kills lefties and are killing teams night in and night out.  grossman has a great history against irvin, as does acuna. riley is hitting. 364 with a .450OBP this year against lefties. 24 of his 35hr are against lefties.  the whole team really hits lefties ... up and down the lineup... someone will win this - irvin or the braves and me thinks its likely the latter. Riley, d'Arnaud, Grossman, Dansby, Harris, Acuna, Olson ... all kill lefties. Of those, Riley, Dansby, Harris, and Olson are incredible doubles hitters and Oakland is a huge park. as long as Irvin doesn't spin a gem today (hes let up 5er up in 3 of last 4) I think there's a combo in here to make a lot of money. It's just finding that combo ...

Braves -2 at -109

Doubles props: Michael Harris who leads the league in doubles over last 30 days, has speed, and in a big park in Oakland going off at +410! he has 13 doubles in 25 games. if you played $100 ticket for 25 games he started, you'd have $410 * 13 = $4,130 - $1,200 = $2900 profit at those odds. simply put, it's good odds. 

D'Arnaud, Riley, Olson going at +330, 270, 310 respectively for a double. Robbie Grossman who is 4/6 in his career against irvin is +130 to record a single ...

Austin Riley -127 for over 1.5 bases ... Olson -104. Harris +145, Arnaud +114

Just sayin ... for shits and giggles I'll do my daily doubles parlay as:

Matt Olson revenge game back in Oakland + Michael Harris + Renfroe and his hit streak + coors to get that double. $15 pays $1,020. 

 

Thanks for reading ha. I kind of actually use this as my internal note process - so if you don't want to read - i'm sorry. I use it as a check of would i recommend to a friend as to whittle down some picks. 

 

 

[he gone.]

recap: arozarena went off, boagerts pulled up w injury, devers nothing = flush the lotto ticket away. 

hiura cashed. renfroe hit a dinger, cashed. 

That braves game was everything i though it could be ... the -2 ticket seemed like an easy cash multiple times. thats gambling though, sometimes the oakland A's ... in the coliseum ... drop 9 runs? the michael harris one is heartbreaking to me. he had a single and stretched it into 2 bases, but was deemed a single and advance rather than a double. D'Arnaud sat? Don't get that, but he did. Olson hit a dinger. Riley did riley ... walked ... good at bats, no ticket cashed. 

lastly, the doubles parlay did not cash. We got 2/3 to hit a homerun on the ticket and michael harris advanced to second on a single hit ... which feels oh so close to me. i know none of them hit, but this gambling bloodhound was on the right track ...

Overall, an even day. tread water and hopefully be slightly up while treading waiting to hit another doubles parlay. 

9/7 bets:

Total Bases 1.5:

Charlie Blackmon, Renfroe, Rhys Hoskins, Ketel Marte, Mike Trout, Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Randal Grichuk, David Peralta, Judge

There's a lot of data behind all of this. blackmon 22abs, .545ba, particularly always strong splits at coors (duh), renfroe .333ba in 21abs against freeland, also on a big hot streak + coors. rhys hoskins has a .438ba agianst rogers and that includes rogers from last year that was unhittable. he's not that version so far this year. ketel bats .409 in 22abs against darvish. the last two guys are in top 20 of doubles over last two weeks. the rays beat up pivetta his last start out ... really just love them today. the judge logic applies from yesterdays rain out. and grichuk mashes lefties and at coors. 

All that i said above on Atlanta applies, to a degree today. Another lefty on the mound, but this is the kid that came back in the Montas trade. His stats are pretty solid, though that was AAA and this is his second career start. Anything can happen with young guys especially playing a lineup like that. Books wont be kind, but if I'm chasing anything there it's the hottest bats in Harris and Riley. With Acuna and Olson as maybes, but probably not. Likely to pass overall. sometimes the best bet is the one you lay down. 

$5 Lotto ticket: Over 1.5 bases Trout, Blackmon, Ketel

$20 Doubles Parlay: Hoskins, Ketel, Arozarena (or Yandy??)

 

Just regular game lines i like:

adjusted over at 5.5 for both the rays and the braves game. parlay those together. pays +109. strider is damn good, but he just went a CG. i think they'll limit his innings today a bit. As long as the A's can score 1 or 2, which should be feasible then you're asking only 4-5 runs out of the Braves which against a lefty should be doable. on the rays end they just have pivettas number and he hasn't been as sharp of late. rays bats are hot. 

[CentralChamps21]

Thinking I should find one betting site with a 80.5 win total on the Sox and bet the over, then find another with an 81.5 win total and bet the under.

[he gone.]

In that scenario you're paying the house a good chunk, so unless the payouts are wide enough, it probably wont make money ...

[he gone.]

booty stomped. that's the definition of yesterday. there was no treading water. toughest part about gambling is dusting it off, keeping the same focus applied to the last days research and doing it again. that said, I really just don't like any of the short schedule today. the phillies have historically done very well against Sandy and Gibson has been average at best of late. I like the over 7, but i think this is a day to watch the NFL, Cease, and to rest. 

[he gone.]

Corbin is still letting up homers. Basically 1 a game. 22 from righties. 7.19 night ERA v 5era during day. 8era on road. Last time out against phillies lasted less than inning and let up 6 runs … Syndergaard not much better. Over over over. Cesar Hernandez bats .406 over 32abs, bohm .357 2hr, hoskins .333 w 3hr, Segura, and maybe jt/harper.

I like f3 or f5 reds. Alexander walks people and love lodolo

Diamondbacks playing better. like the idea of ketel and corbin carroll. 

Sox are at a nice price?? I tend to shy away from them ... but lord help me, i may put in a bet. 

Willi castro …. 6/8 and a hr against lynch. i don't generally like backing poor batters, but i like him to record a hit and maybe pair that with like a hit from will smith or acuna?

Ketel, .300, 40abs, 2hr, cron does well.  Betts .583 12abs

Doubles parlay: Ketel, Bichette, Betts

[he gone.]

Recap: Yesterday was a nice rebound after a bad day. carroll hit a dinger, hoskins hit a homer. sox did the impossible. i ended up 6/8 and missed a 7 leg parlay by a mookie betts over 1.5 TB. woulda paid $900 on a $5 wager... grrr.

Anyways, i LOVE the board today. i don't say that lightly. In order of love:

Over in Colorado. Bumgarner and Urena is set at 11.5. Vegas is not usually wrong, but i don't get it. I'm not seeing how this isn't 12.5 or 13. Both guys suck and it's Coors. Arizona much better of late. 

Toronto against Arihara. He was demoted to the bullpen, making a start again. Simply put he's just not very good. I think you'll see him last 3-4ip tops and then it's bullpen time. I think toronto tags them early, but if not, should chip away. gausman hasn't been as sharp of late, but think they get it done. 

Sox - lynn we all know has been on fire. adrian martinez is a sinker baller. he also throws a change and a slider.. no fastball. who hits sinkers well you ask? well, abreu crushes. eloy crushes. pollock does well. and vaughn is ... meh, but passable. martinez has actually been okay this year so far since getting the call, but i think the sox hot streak ultimately wins out and can see a few doubles in a big park from someone like abreu and eloy. i like them 1.5 ... or maybe even like -3. crazy to say, but if lynn is locked in? oakland is bad ... i'm feeling like a 6-1 type final. 

bryce harper hasn't been locked in since returning ... that said .. he hits .500 over 18 ab's w/ FIVE homers against fedde. owns him. total base prop.

other notes ... jose ramirez hits archer well, oscar gonzalez is locked in at the plate. like those plays. 

things i like, but dont love, but if you love gambling? under f5 in tb/yankees, over in the philly game. wind blowing, suarez not great of late, fedde not great ever. over in mets/marlins. cookie carrasco hasn't been very sharp of late and coming off an injury. lopez not historically great against mets. over f5 in the cle/min game. triston has let up 2-3er in 4/5 starts. archer has been poor of late and his night and away eras are his weak spots. jeff mcneil bats .500 against pablo lopez. 

 

$5 doubles parlay: jose ramirez, jose abreu (or eloy dealers choice), and bo bichette. 

[he gone.]

back to back days on fire. the colorado game hurt big ... very big ... i had that thing wrapped in parlays to the max. Cost me about 60 units ... and that kids is why you don't parlay. i was even on the day with absolutely destroying the board. Toronto, sox, harper hit that homer ... jose ramirez went 3-3 i believe ... abreu, eloy .. bichette hit a double. and again was on the bloodhound path for the doubles parlay ... bichette had 2 doubles, eloy would've had a double in the 8th, but the lead was huge and with his hammys he just took the single ... jose ramirez got on base non stop. seeing as those bets give 80-100x return and i've hit once this week and very close in 2 others? i hope some of you are tailing me ... how you structure bets makes a HUGE difference, but if people are taking these you're up.

 

It's NFL today -- so didn't do as much in depth research.  Some names of guys I like. JT Realmuto, Arozarena and Yandy are hot, Matt Chapman to an extent, Justin Turner and Max Muncy, Matt olson, but he's been a bit off too, good history against Marco Gonzalez though hasn't been great of late. Jake McCarthy. 

Doubles parlay ... going to do a round robin today. costs a bit extra to do the extra combos, but why not? feel like i've been close on guys the last few days so gonna do it. I like:

Arozarena, Justin Turner, Bichette, McCarthy ..... and Matt Chapman

 

Like astros -1.5, sox against a lefty in irvin whos been struggling of late (though still better home splits), and braves against a lefty at even money. 

 

[he gone.]

weird few days on my end. let's make some money going into the weekend!

Brian Anderson and Garrett Cooper hit Josiah Gray very well in career. Shorter sample size than I'd like but get this, Josiah Gray has let up 20 hr's in the last 10 games. TEN! Joey Wendle intrigues me as well. WAS ranks as the 4th friendliest place for batters to hit doubles ... i love miami tonight around even money. I love wendle/anderson and cooper and i love that the books generally dont give the marlins love. im taking them TT over. de la cruz is another name to watch. 

blue jays/orioles has the makings of a ton of runs. I haven't found the cheat code or what i want out of that game yet, but i have a feeling 15+ runs will be scored. 

Some names that have good histories today: carlos correa (go twins), yandy diaz, matt chapman, austin nola, freddie freeman, bryce haper. javy baez. i'll put emphasis on freddie freeman 

top line is guys i like for doubles, bottom is for TB. 

• Freeman, cooper, matt chapman, Vladdy, Bichette, boagerts, wendle Abreu, Andrus, witt, devers,
• TB:  correa, Yordan, Michael harris, tucker, jrod, Realmuto, semien (any of the above too)

[he gone.]

going to be spotty a bit ... 

but trying to keep up with some picks

gunnar henderson, thairo estrada and acuna doubles parlay today. like gunnar the most of those in a big detroit park and facing a bad lefty. 

[he gone.]

estrada and acuna both with doubles. gunnar and the O's got SHUT DOWN yesterday. oh so close to a 100x payout again. 

 

today's picks:

doubles parlay: eloy, matt olson, and will go with estrada again

others i gave thought to -- yaz on san fran, ketel marte, will smith,  robert or yoan. 

[Bob Sacamano]

Going to take advantage of the risk free up to $25 SGP during each day of the Wild Card games this weekend. Not sure which to bet though.