17-10

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

That’s the record the Sox need over the final 27 games to win the division. Unlikely? Sure. Impossible? Hell no, especially now that the TLR cloud has lifted. Remaining schedule:

2 @ SEA (1-1)

4 @ OAK (3-1)

2 vs COL (2-0)

1 @ CLE (0-1)

3 @ DET (2-1)

3 vs CLE (2-1)

3 vs DET (2-1)

3 @ MIN (1-2)

3 @ SD (2-1)

3 vs MIN (2-1)

 

Edited September 9, 2022 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Totally possible. Sox were able to capitalize on Cleveland’s losing streak to get them back into the division race. They are definitely going to need to play the best baseball we’ve seen from them all year but they also need Cleveland to continue to hit a rough patch and play .500 to below .500 baseball. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Totally possible. Sox were able to capitalize on Cleveland’s losing streak to get them back into the division race. They are definitely going to need to play the best baseball we’ve seen from them all year but they also need Cleveland to continue to hit a rough patch and play .500 to below .500 baseball. 

I picked 85 wins as the mark needed for the Sox to win the division because I think cleveland plays one game over .500 the rest of the way. They still have 8 games with KC but they also have 8 games with Minnesota, who they’ve struggled against.

[Ducksnort]

If you are going to play your best baseball all season in September and October, well, that's the time to do it. Ngl I am still cautiously optimistic, based on this team's track record. But they have to keep winning games. Win 3, lose 1, win 4, lose 1, win 3, lose 2, win 3. Has to be something like that if they aren't going to go on like a 8-0 or 10-0 hot streak.

[White Sox Park]

No matter how much we all b**** about how bad the Sox have been (i've given up more than once) they are still the class of the division, and perhaps more . now that LaRussa is gone, I have high hopes that, at the very least, we will make the post-season, and then, who knows . i'll take our staff of Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Johnny Cueto, and Lucas Giolito over anyone's.

[HoosierSox]

How is a tiebreaker determined if there is a 3 way tie between Sox, Cle, Min? Would it be the division record or the record against the other 2 teams?

[chitownsportsfan]

This is a .500 club. Odds are about 1/4 they can do a 17-10 stretch maybe closer to 1/5. 

[SonofaRoache]

That game at Cleveland is a must win. We cannot simply label that a loss. 

[SonofaRoache]

6 minutes ago, White Sox Park said:

No matter how much we all b**** about how bad the Sox have been (i've given up more than once) they are still the class of the division, and perhaps more . now that LaRussa is gone, I have high hopes that, at the very least, we will make the post-season, and then, who knows . i'll take our staff of Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Johnny Cueto, and Lucas Giolito over anyone's.

TLR sucks but we aren't winning now because he is gone. It is a small sample size, not to mention TLR just had a 5 game win streak himself. This team needs to try to win each game one at a time. We have no margin of error, so no more s%*# lineups, over resting, and punting Sunday or getaway games. 

[ChiSox59]

If Cleveland goes 15-14 rest of season, they end with 84 wins.

If MN goes 16-13 rest of season, they end with 84 wins.

Which means Sox need to go 17-10 or better to get to 85 or more wins.  Its doable, but basically means Sox cannot lose more than 1 more in a row rest of season. Of course rattling off an 8-10 game win streak would make it all so much more realistic.  May as well start now....

Remember, Sox are 6-9 vs. Cleveland.  Which means Guardians only need to win 1 of the remaining 4 to hold the tie breaker.  So really, Sox are 3 GB, not 2.  

[ChiSox59]

3 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

TLR sucks but we aren't winning now because he is gone. It is a small sample size, not to mention TLR just had a 5 game win streak himself. This team needs to try to win each game one at a time. We have no margin of error, so no more s%*# lineups, over resting, and punting Sunday or getaway games. 

As someone who has probably watched 125 of the 135 games in full, and at least portions of the other 10....there is 100% something difference about this team since Tony left.  They have an energy and a spunk that they haven't shown since early 2021.  Sure there has been 1 or 2 duds since Tony left that reminded me of the majority of the games played under Tony (corpseball, as I call it)...but Tony leaving was a giant breath of fresh air, and likely a relief to the guys, even though they'll never publicly admit that. 

[35thstreetswarm]

I agree that we need to go 17-10...unless we need to go 20-7, or 8-9, or some other record to win the division.  There have been so many arbitrary mini-season record "requirements" declared on this site and they've all blown up, as always.  We're two games back with 27 to play.  That can play out in a lot of different ways.  I'm just taking it day by day. 

Edited September 6, 2022 by 35thstreetswarm

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

18 minutes ago, HoosierSox said:

How is a tiebreaker determined if there is a 3 way tie between Sox, Cle, Min? Would it be the division record or the record against the other 2 teams?

If all finish tied at the top, then the team with the best combined winning percentage against the two other clubs would be the division champ. Sox are 12-16, Twins are 12-12, Guardians are 15-11. Sox have some ground to make up over their last 12 games against Cleveland and Minnesota if they have any hopes of winning a tiebreaker situation.

[Rowand44]

22 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

This is a .500 club. Odds are about 1/4 they can do a 17-10 stretch maybe closer to 1/5. 

This is where I'm at.  I'm not allowing myself to get super pumped for a modest 4 games winning streak/ winning 5 of 6.  Don't get me wrong, I'm hoping for the best and maybe just maybe things have turned around with Tony not in the dug out but I still think this team is what it's been all season and that's mediocre.  Prove me wrong boys.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, Rowand44 said:

This is where I'm at.  I'm not allowing myself to get super pumped for a modest 4 games winning streak/ winning 5 of 6.  Don't get me wrong, I'm hoping for the best and maybe just maybe things have turned around with Tony not in the dug out but I still think this team is what it's been all season and that's mediocre.  Prove me wrong boys.

They need a healthy Kopech and a better performing Giolito. Two big ifs but if they get those I think they’re still the division favorite. Lynn has finally flipped the switch over his last 5 starts. Now they need the other two to do the same.

[flavum]

56 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

That game at Cleveland is a must win. We cannot simply label that a loss. 

Maybe they should push Cease’s next start to Saturday, and then run him out there every 5th day until the end. That would get him two starts vs Cleveland and the final game of the season. As it stands, Giolito gets the day game in Cleveland on the 15th. 

[TheFutureIsNear]

35 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

They need a healthy Kopech and a better performing Giolito. Two big ifs but if they get those I think they’re still the division favorite. Lynn has finally flipped the switch over his last 5 starts. Now they need the other two to do the same.

Obviously pitching is always important, but this offense showing any kind of pulse is the most important aspect of a playoff birth. Not realistic to expect to keep going anything but .500 scoring 4 runs or less 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Obviously pitching is always important, but this offense showing any kind of pulse is the most important aspect of a playoff birth. Not realistic to expect to keep going anything but .500 scoring 4 runs or less 

39 runs in the 7 games since Cairo took over. That’s good enough if Giolito and Kopech perform well down the stretch.

[flavum]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

39 runs in the 7 games since Cairo took over. That’s good enough if Giolito and Kopech perform well down the stretch.

Nick Gordon says hey

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, White Sox Park said:

No matter how much we all b**** about how bad the Sox have been (i've given up more than once) they are still the class of the division, and perhaps more . now that LaRussa is gone, I have high hopes that, at the very least, we will make the post-season, and then, who knows . i'll take our staff of Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Johnny Cueto, and Lucas Giolito over anyone's.

Don’t forget Steak, he has been sizzling and likely the #2 behind Cease. Think Cueto or Kopech works out of the bullpen in the playoffs, depending on Kopech’s health.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

16 minutes ago, flavum said:

Nick Gordon says hey

Take away the 6 runs scored off Gordon and that’s still 4.7 runs per game under Cairo. Plenty good enough. In fact, the Twins lead the division with 4.4 runs per game this season..

[MiddleCoastBias]

50 minutes ago, flavum said:

Maybe they should push Cease’s next start to Saturday, and then run him out there every 5th day until the end. That would get him two starts vs Cleveland and the final game of the season. As it stands, Giolito gets the day game in Cleveland on the 15th. 

Day game for Giolito? IIRC, Gio struggles in day games as it shortens his game day prep. Didn't he get shelled for 8 runs in Boston for the day Marathon Monday game? 

Trying to pull his day game stats vs what Cease offers but I don't have that access on Baseball-Reference anymore. 

[SoxBlanco]

54 minutes ago, flavum said:

Maybe they should push Cease’s next start to Saturday, and then run him out there every 5th day until the end. That would get him two starts vs Cleveland and the final game of the season. As it stands, Giolito gets the day game in Cleveland on the 15th. 

This was exactly my plan when I figured it all out throughout the rest of the season. We have off-days to make it work. I think you need to fix it so Cease pitches two of the four Cleveland games.

[flavum]

3 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

This was exactly my plan when I figured it all out throughout the rest of the season. We have off-days to make it work. I think you need to fix it so Cease pitches two of the four Cleveland games.

Agreed. They need to optimize Cease, Cueto, and Lynn starts. And then Giolito, Kopech, and Martin fill in the rest. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, White Sox Park said:

No matter how much we all b**** about how bad the Sox have been (i've given up more than once) they are still the class of the division, and perhaps more . now that LaRussa is gone, I have high hopes that, at the very least, we will make the post-season, and then, who knows . i'll take our staff of Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Johnny Cueto, and Lucas Giolito over anyone's.

Forgot Lynn.