The White Sox cannot be fixed by next season

[VAfan]

Regardless of how the end of this season goes -- fangraphs still gives us a 15% chance of making the playoffs -- many of us have started thinking about next year.  I know it's a bit premature, but it's on my mind, so here goes.  

The White Sox cannot be fixed by next year.  Let's look at the challenge player by player.  I'll start by going around the diamond.  This is written after 146 games.

1.  Yasmani Grandal.  C, 1B, DH.

2022.  88 games, only 55 as a starting catcher.    67 OPS+, -1 WAR.  Only a .505 OPS as a lefty, .818 as a righty.  
2021.   90 games, 78 as a catcher.  155 OPS+. 3.7 WAR.  .909 OPS as a lefty, 1.031 OPS as a righty. 
Contract -- 1 year left at $18,250,000.
Evaluation:  Grandal went from being the best hitter on the team to nearly the worst.   But he was still injured for a significant stretch of the season and caught fewer than half of the games.  His contract makes him untradeable, but he's also completely unreliable.  Plus, he hits worse as a lefty when the Sox are desperate for lefties.  

2. Yoan Moncada. 3B. 

2022.  90 games.  78 OPS+.  .569 OPS as a lefty.  .856 OPS as a righty.  
2021.  144 games.  116 OPS+.  .817 OPS as lefty.  .700 OPS as a righty.
Contract -- 2 more years at $17.8M, $24.8M.  Club option in 3rd year for $25M.  
Evaluation -- his OPS+ has been under 100 in 2 of the last 3 years.  He seems to be hurt a lot, and he has been atrocious this year against right handed pitching.  Like with Grandal, when the Sox are desperate for lefty power, Moncada comes up short.  Can you trade him?  Off this year, no.  Off last year, probably.  But the Sox paid for 2019 breakout year and he hasn't come close since.  Like Grandal, he's not a reliable player.

3. Tim Anderson.  SS.

2022.  79 games.  108 OPS+.  All-Star.
2021.  123 games.  118 OPS+
Contract -- Club options for $12.5M next year and and $14M in 2 years. 
Evaluation -- One of the main leaders of the team, he's never healthy for a full season.  Since 2019 he's played in 123, 49 (of 60), 123, and 79 games.   He made the All-Star team this year, but it was his worst OPS+ since 2018.  He has great speed, but with regular leg injuries, you can't afford to run him.  Given his shaky health, it's hard to see the Sox giving him a big contract after his next 2 seasons run their course.  And you need a backup SS to cover at least 40 games.  

4.  Second base.  

The Sox have trotted out a lot of 2B over the last 2 years.  
2022.  Harrison 81 games, Garcia 46 games, Gonzalez 18 games, Mendick 6 games.
2021.  Hernandez 53 games, Madrigal 53 games, Garcia 36 games, Mendick 28 games.
Hernandez and Madrigal are gone, Sox have a $5.5M option on Harrison next year,  is a free agent, Garcia has 2 more years at $5.5M each, Mendick has 4 years of arbitration, and Gonzalez is under 5 more years of control.  
Evaluation -- Garcia has an albatross of a contract.  Sox cannot trade him, so they need to eat $11M to be rid of him and his 42 OPS+.  Harrison, Gonzalez and Mendick could cover 2B, but they are all right handed and don't begin to address the lefty power shortage the Sox have.  Kolten Wong looks like the best lefty free agent 2B, but he's 32 and declining.  Adam Frazier has been subpar for San Diego and Seattle and is not an answer.  

5.  Jose Abreu. 1B.

2022. 144 games. 137 OPS+
2021. 152 games.  124 OPS+
Contract.  Was just under $20M, but he's a free agent next year at 36.
Evaluation -- The ONLY Sox player who comes to work every day.  He's the oldest regular, but has played 20 more games than AJ Pollock, 23 more than Andrew Vaughn, 48 more than Luis Robert, 54 more than Moncada, 65 more than Tim Anderson, and 73 more then Eloy Jimenez.   

This is the biggest problem with the White Sox -- they have only ONE position player who they can count on to play every day, and he's the oldest regular on the team and is a free agent.  

I'm going to end my analysis right here because Abreu tells the whole story.

1.  Most Sox regulars cannot be relied on to stay A) healthy, and B) hit according to their expected hitting norms.  

2.  The Sox are built around Grandal, Moncada, Anderson, Robert, Jimenez, Abreu, and Vaughn.  The best and most reliable of those players is a 1B/DH and a free agent.  The first 5 guys are regularly injured and otherwise unable to match their hitting norms.  If you bring back Abreu, you are still left with Jimenez, Vaughn, and Sheets, who should all be DH or 1B guys, but 2 of them have to play the field and weaken the defense.  Plus, only one of them is a lefty.  

3.  It's not just the offense.  On the pitching side, Lucas Giolito has regressed to being a sub-par starter.  Johnny Cueto had a great bounce back year, but is a free agent, and can he be counted on next year?  Dylan Cease is the ACE.  Lance Lynn seems to be back to normal, but is older and has health issues.  And Kopech seems okay, but his record was terrible and he's not fully stretched out or reliable to pitch an entire season.  So that's 2 sold starters and a lot of question marks. 

4.  The bullpen looks like the best part of the team, especially if Crochet returns to form.  Hendrix and Graveman are solid, Lopez has found his groove, Lambert has done quite well. Add back Crochet as a lefty and this is a strength.  

The bottom line is that the Sox can't really trade anyone for some reliable lefty starters who play good defense.  They have Oscar Colas in the minors, but he's not ready for MLB.  

They could try some patchwork things, but it's not going to make Grandal, Moncada, Anderson, Robert and Jimenez into reliable everyday players.  Of those 5, only Robert and Moncada play good defense.  

So, of course the Sox can let go of TLR (he should retire) and fire the hitting coach, but even if they had money they can't reliably win with this core.  It's pretty sad as a Sox fan.  But I think that's reality.

Edited September 18, 2022 by VAfan

[KrankinSox]

If Tony is gone the Sox will win 110 games and sweep the playoffs. Or so I was told.

[iWiN4PreP]

so your analysis of the entire white sox chances to be fixed covers 5 guys?

what about the pitching staff and robert and eloy

honestly, i like reading it, so was hoping your thread would be more deep, but was sad to find it ended so quickly and felt unfinished

[TheFutureIsNear]

Completely disagree.
Grandal is the only major issue you pointed out that I’m truly worried about.

While I’m not delusional enough to think Yoan will be anywhere near an all-star level player next year, I still don’t believe he can possibly be this bad again. 
 

We have internal options at 2B

Tim is fine, his hand injury was more of a freak injury than the constant nagging injuries that have plagued others. 
 

Let Jose walk, play Vaughn at 1B and find a good OF’er. 
 

And yes, of course a new coaching staff will make a gigantic difference. Tony absolutely brought this team down.

 

Not saying they will compete for a WS next year, but 90(ish) wins and a playoff berth is well within reach next year. 

[Kyyle23]

Cannot be fixed?  Really?

[HaroldSouthside]

Grandal, Moncada and Giolito not sucking would have the white Sox in first right now. That would be a 8-10 game swing just there. 
 

find a starter, be a little but healthier, find a new manager, fix RF and 2b (internally)…. Problem solved. 

[wegner]

24 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Cannot be fixed?  Really?

Might be time to shut down this site since things are so grim.

[kitekrazy]

I get tired of the lets play GM threads.   

One simple thing is to not rely on NL players making a difference.  No Nimmo, No Contreras. So far it hasn't worked.  No NL arms either.

Don't ever listen to Tony.

Trade only to get rid of players because the Sox are bad at trades and don't expect value.   Trades guys like Leury for a 20.00 era pitcher who will fill the farm system. Getting a haul for x player is fantasy sports.  

Continue to dumpster dive. They only thing they are good at.  See Andrus, Cueto.

Fire the whole coaching staff.  Unfortunately those again will be ex players.

Keep Gordon out of the booth. 

Stop spending money on the bullpen.

 

[kitekrazy]

10 minutes ago, HaroldSouthside said:

Grandal, Moncada and Giolito not sucking would have the white Sox in first right now. That would be a 8-10 game swing just there. 
 

find a starter, be a little but healthier, find a new manager, fix RF and 2b (internally)…. Problem solved. 

You left out Tony mot sucking who insisted on playing one of the worst players in baseball.

[kitekrazy]

31 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Cannot be fixed?  Really?

Yep. So far the team hasn't been sold to a baseball intelligent owner who wants to be like the Dodgers, Rays. or Cardinals.

[Kyyle23]

4 minutes ago, kitekrazy said:

Yep. So far the team hasn't been sold to a baseball intelligent owner who wants to be like the Dodgers, Rays. or Cardinals.

 

[TheFutureIsNear]

12 minutes ago, kitekrazy said:

Yep. So far the team hasn't been sold to a baseball intelligent owner who wants to be like the Dodgers, Rays. or Cardinals.

We shouldn’t want a baseball intelligent owner. We should want a billionaire with $ to blow that hires baseball intelligent people. The last thing I want for my favorite sports teams is an owner that thinks they know what they are doing, very rarely works out. 

[tray]

I would try to obtain a starting pitcher via free agency or trade.  If a trading partner could be  identified that needed a Closer I would explore what Hendriks might bring in return.

I would consider internal options for RF and  second base unless a compelling trade opportunity or a potential free agent acquisition presents itself.

 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, tray said:

I would try to obtain a starting pitcher via free agency or trade.  If a trading partner could be  identified that needed a Closer I would explore what Hendriks might bring in return.

I would consider internal options for RF and  second base unless a compelling trade opportunity or a potential free agent acquisition presents itself.

 

Hendriks will not bring a big return, not with his contract. He’s movable and will return something; but not someone who is going to make the white Sox substantially better in the near future.

[The Mighty Mite]

2 hours ago, VAfan said:

Regardless of how the end of this season goes -- fangraphs still gives us a 15% chance of making the playoffs -- many of us have started thinking about next year.  I know it's a bit premature, but it's on my mind, so here goes.  

The White Sox cannot be fixed by next year.  Let's look at the challenge player by player.  I'll start by going around the diamond.  This is written after 146 games.

1.  Yasmani Grandal.  C, 1B, DH.

2022.  88 games, only 55 as a starting catcher.    67 OPS+, -1 WAR.  Only a .505 OPS as a lefty, .818 as a righty.  
2021.   90 games, 78 as a catcher.  155 OPS+. 3.7 WAR.  .909 OPS as a lefty, 1.031 OPS as a righty. 
Contract -- 1 year left at $18,250,000.
Evaluation:  Grandal went from being the best hitter on the team to nearly the worst.   But he was still injured for a significant stretch of the season and caught fewer than half of the games.  His contract makes him untradeable, but he's also completely unreliable.  Plus, he hits worse as a lefty when the Sox are desperate for lefties.  

2. Yoan Moncada. 3B. 

2022.  90 games.  78 OPS+.  .569 OPS as a lefty.  .856 OPS as a righty.  
2021.  144 games.  116 OPS+.  .817 OPS as lefty.  .700 OPS as a righty.
Contract -- 2 more years at $17.8M, $24.8M.  Club option in 3rd year for $25M.  
Evaluation -- his OPS+ has been under 100 in 2 of the last 3 years.  He seems to be hurt a lot, and he has been atrocious this year against right handed pitching.  Like with Grandal, when the Sox are desperate for lefty power, Moncada comes up short.  Can you trade him?  Off this year, no.  Off last year, probably.  But the Sox paid for 2019 breakout year and he hasn't come close since.  Like Grandal, he's not a reliable player.

3. Tim Anderson.  SS.

2022.  79 games.  108 OPS+.  All-Star.
2021.  123 games.  118 OPS+
Contract -- Club options for $12.5M next year and and $14M in 2 years. 
Evaluation -- One of the main leaders of the team, he's never healthy for a full season.  Since 2019 he's played in 123, 49 (of 60), 123, and 79 games.   He made the All-Star team this year, but it was his worst OPS+ since 2018.  He has great speed, but with regular leg injuries, you can't afford to run him.  Given his shaky health, it's hard to see the Sox giving him a big contract after his next 2 seasons run their course.  And you need a backup SS to cover at least 40 games.  

4.  Second base.  

The Sox have trotted out a lot of 2B over the last 2 years.  
2022.  Harrison 81 games, Garcia 46 games, Gonzalez 18 games, Mendick 6 games.
2021.  Hernandez 53 games, Madrigal 53 games, Garcia 36 games, Mendick 28 games.
Hernandez and Madrigal are gone, Sox have a $5.5M option on Harrison next year,  is a free agent, Garcia has 2 more years at $5.5M each, Mendick has 4 years of arbitration, and Gonzalez is under 5 more years of control.  
Evaluation -- Garcia has an albatross of a contract.  Sox cannot trade him, so they need to eat $11M to be rid of him and his 42 OPS+.  Harrison, Gonzalez and Mendick could cover 2B, but they are all right handed and don't begin to address the lefty power shortage the Sox have.  Kolten Wong looks like the best lefty free agent 2B, but he's 32 and declining.  Adam Frazier has been subpar for San Diego and Seattle and is not an answer.  

5.  Jose Abreu. 1B.

2022. 144 games. 137 OPS+
2021. 152 games.  124 OPS+
Contract.  Was just under $20M, but he's a free agent next year at 36.
Evaluation -- The ONLY Sox player who comes to work every day.  He's the oldest regular, but has played 20 more games than AJ Pollock, 23 more than Andrew Vaughn, 48 more than Luis Robert, 54 more than Moncada, 65 more than Tim Anderson, and 73 more then Eloy Jimenez.   

This is the biggest problem with the White Sox -- they have only ONE position player who they can count on to play every day, and he's the oldest regular on the team and is a free agent.  

I'm going to end my analysis right here because Abreu tells the whole story.

1.  Most Sox regulars cannot be relied on to stay A) healthy, and B) hit according to their expected hitting norms.  

2.  The Sox are built around Grandal, Moncada, Anderson, Robert, Jimenez, Abreu, and Vaughn.  The best and most reliable of those players is a 1B/DH and a free agent.  The first 5 guys are regularly injured and otherwise unable to match their hitting norms.  If you bring back Abreu, you are still left with Jimenez, Vaughn, and Sheets, who should all be DH or 1B guys, but 2 of them have to play the field and weaken the defense.  Plus, only one of them is a lefty.  

3.  It's not just the offense.  On the pitching side, Lucas Giolito has regressed to being a sub-par starter.  Johnny Cueto had a great bounce back year, but is a free agent, and can he be counted on next year?  Dylan Cease is the ACE.  Lance Lynn seems to be back to normal, but is older and has health issues.  And Kopech seems okay, but his record was terrible and he's not fully stretched out or reliable to pitch an entire season.  So that's 2 sold starters and a lot of question marks. 

4.  The bullpen looks like the best part of the team, especially if Crochet returns to form.  Hendrix and Graveman are solid, Lopez has found his groove, Lambert has done quite well. Add back Crochet as a lefty and this is a strength.  

The bottom line is that the Sox can't really trade anyone for some reliable lefty starters who play good defense.  They have Oscar Colas in the minors, but he's not ready for MLB.  

They could try some patchwork things, but it's not going to make Grandal, Moncada, Anderson, Robert and Jimenez into reliable everyday players.  Of those 5, only Robert and Moncada play good defense.  

So, of course the Sox can let go of TLR (he should retire) and fire the hitting coach, but even if they had money they can't reliably win with this core.  It's pretty sad as a Sox fan.  But I think that's reality.

I would have liked you to finish your evaluations. You left out some key players, Eloy, Robert, Vaughn and Sheets. Those 4 have to be key to competing next year. Eloy has really come on here in September, we need a healthy and motivated Robert. Vaughn leads the team in homers and RBI and Sheets has improved as a right fielder and we need his lefty bat. I think the one thing everyone can agree on is that TLR should not be managing this team next year, not sure if Cairo is the answer either, we’ll see what happens in the next 15 games.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 19, 2022 by The Mighty Mite

[Balta1701]

The two important points:

1. VAfan is completely drained of hope. He wrote a dozen threads before the season about how great this team was going to be. Now he’s doing the same thing with how hopeless he is. This says something about the fan base after this season.

2. so many of these guys underperformed the big answer is still the same thing - try a professional, well qualified coaching staff, found through a detailed search and with people who actually deserve the job, rather than the current lineup of schmucks, yes men, and nepotism hires. What’s the harm?

[southsider2k5]

The Sox took the 1st step when Tony had to bow out.  I don't think it was a World Series favorite team, but seeing the rebound in key guys tells me that more is there.

[ChiSox59]

I actually think this roster can be fixed relatively easy. Will require a hard decision on Abreu and signing a legit LH OF, tho. Not sure ownership will allow either. 

This also assumes Tony is a goner as he’s been the biggest impediment for this roster other than injuries. 

Edited September 19, 2022 by ChiSox59

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I actually think this roster can be fixed relatively easy. Will require a hard decision on Abreu and signing a legit LH OF, tho. Not sure ownership will allow either. 

Doing that swap and losing the huge value gotten out of Cueto leaves this team worse on paper. At best treading water. And Cleveland probably is better next year than this one given how many rookies have contributed to them this year and the strength of their system.

You better find me a way to get more out of the other guys who are here.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Doing that swap and losing the huge value gotten out of Cueto leaves this team worse on paper. At best treading water. And Cleveland probably is better next year than this one given how many rookies have contributed to them this year and the strength of their system.

You better find me a way to get more out of the other guys who are here.

Yes, we also need a 5th SP, and hopefully better health. I don’t think there’s anyway we don’t get huge improvements from Moncada, and Grandal hopefully will be useful and healthier in a part time role. I’m confident Lucas will be much better in 23 heading into FA, and playing 3 real OFs in the OF all season will be a huge improvement.

I think this team as currently constructed is much better than the 83 or whatever win team they’ll be; but as always health is huge and Sox didn’t have it this year. With those roster tweaks and a TLR out of the way, next years team is going to win a lot more than 85 games. 

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yes, we also need a 5th SP, and hopefully better health. I don’t think there’s anyway we don’t get huge improvements from Moncada, and Grandal hopefully will be useful and healthier in a part time role. I’m confident Lucas will be much better in 23 heading into FA, and playing 3 real OFs in the OF all season will be a huge improvement.

I think this team as currently constructed is much better than the 83 or whatever win team they’ll be; but as always health is huge and Sox didn’t have it this year. With those roster tweaks and a TLR out of the way, next years team is going to win a lot more than 85 games. 

The white Sox were generally average this year in terms of health league wide, and frankly healthier than they should have been given the age of their roster which was among the 10 oldest in baseball. If your plan involves replacing the one guy who is never on the IL and you are expecting them to turn into one of the healthiest teams in baseball to get better…well I hope the problem was the training and coaching staff, because otherwise they could easily be more injured next year.

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

The white Sox were generally average this year in terms of health league wide, and frankly healthier than they should have been given the age of their roster which was among the 10 oldest in baseball. If your plan involves replacing the one guy who is never on the IL and you are expecting them to turn into one of the healthiest teams in baseball to get better…well I hope the problem was the training and coaching staff, because otherwise they could easily be more injured next year.

Counting IL days doesn’t really tell the whole story though. Sox lost several key players for long stretches and have had guys return and be not close to themselves, play thru it, etc. Sox got smoked by injury this year. The only two key players who didn’t spend time on the IL were Jose and Cease and all the rest spent time on the shelf, and several significant. Every team dealt with an uptick in injuries this year that may be correlated the short ST. I don’t think Sox are going to suddenly become the healthiest team in the league, but would hope the injuries are less concentrated on the best players on the roster. 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Counting IL days doesn’t really tell the whole story though. Sox lost several key players for long stretches and have had guys return and be not close to themselves, play thru it, etc. Sox got smoked by injury this year. The only two key players who didn’t spend time on the IL were Jose and Cease and all the rest spent time on the shelf, and several significant. Every team dealt with an uptick in injuries this year that may be correlated the short ST. I don’t think Sox are going to suddenly become the healthiest team in the league, but would hope the injuries are less concentrated on the best players on the roster. 

The only guys they lost for the full season were Mendick and Crochet. Thats nothing. Go compare to Detroit and Minnesota and get back to me. Detroit at one point had their top 5 starters on the IL. How would the White Sox have endured that?

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

The only guys they lost for the full season were Mendick and Crochet. Thats nothing. Go compare to Detroit and Minnesota and get back to me. Detroit at one point had their top 5 starters on the IL. How would the White Sox have endured that?

The White Sox lost their starting 3B,  SS, LF, CF, C, and #2, #3 starters, closer, and best two lefty relievers for long stretches. All well above average impact players. The Sox had really good players get hurt, and some get hurt seriously. I don’t see how the awful tigers losing their rotation is relevant. Twins have also been decimated by injuries yes; I’m well aware. 

I suspect Sox will be healthier in 2023. You don’t. That’s fine. 

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

The White Sox lost their starting 3B,  SS, LF, CF, C, and #2, #3 starters, closer, and best two lefty relievers for long stretches. All well above average impact players. The Sox had really good players get hurt, and some get hurt seriously. I don’t see how the awful tigers losing their rotation is relevant. Twins have also been decimated by injuries yes; I’m well aware. 

I suspect Sox will be healthier in 2023. You don’t. That’s fine. 

Their catcher is an impact player? Giolito is? They have an impact LF on their roster? I don’t even know who you’re referring to there. It must be Vaughn right since Pollock only missed a short stint? Vaughn who is a 0.4 fWAR player in 507 plate appearances? That’s like me saying the Tigers couldn’t afford to lose an impact player like Torkelson.