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Looks like we are inline for the 16th pick or so for the 2023 MLB draft.


DanofDuPage

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6 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Does anybody know if the draft lottery sets the order for the first round only or every round?

Just the first round. First 6 picks, then it goes by record. For example, if Sox were 16th and received the 1st pick via luck, they’d pick 16 in subsequent rounds. 

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So according to tankathon, here are approximate odds if slotted 16th:

#1 pick - .5% (1 in 200)

#2 pick - .5% (1 in 200)

#3 pick - .6% (1 in 167)

#4 pick - .7% (1 in 143)

#5 pick - .9% (1 in 111)

#6 pick 1.1% (1 in 91)

Overall chance to move up -  4.4% (1 in 23)

#16 pick - 90.4%

#17 pick - 5.2%

For comparison's sake, when the Blackhawks jumped up the board and won the 2007 NHL lottery, they had an 8.1% to win the draft lottery.

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9 hours ago, Sarava said:

So according to tankathon, here are approximate odds if slotted 16th:

#1 pick - .5% (1 in 200)

#2 pick - .5% (1 in 200)

#3 pick - .6% (1 in 167)

#4 pick - .7% (1 in 143)

#5 pick - .9% (1 in 111)

#6 pick 1.1% (1 in 91)

Overall chance to move up -  4.4% (1 in 23)

#16 pick - 90.4%

#17 pick - 5.2%

For comparison's sake, when the Blackhawks jumped up the board and won the 2007 NHL lottery, they had an 8.1% to win the draft lottery.

Does anyone know if the 2023 draft is considered deep in talent?   I can’t believe the Sox fan has to think about this!!!

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On 9/24/2022 at 8:59 PM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Just the first round. First 6 picks, then it goes by record. For example, if Sox were 16th and received the 1st pick via luck, they’d pick 16 in subsequent rounds. 

Aren’t the first 6 picks decided from a pool of teams which had the six worst records?

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4 hours ago, reiks12 said:

Ive been having fun with https://www.tankathon.com/mlb

Simmed it about 20 times and got the Sox the #1 pick, and the #3 pick. It would be bedlam here if that happened

Would be the first time we’ve had excitement for about 8 months plus by then… but we all probably wouldn’t trust the damned scouting director or GM.

This team deserves zero fucking trust.

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Six games against the Twins means a 3rd place finish is still possible and we all know Uncle Jerry is a big proponent of “1st is the worst, 2nd is the best”.  Failure to finish the year 2nd may have some consequences plus would improve our odds of a top six pick.  Let’s hope the Twins bring their A game and rough us up to finish this s%*# show of a season.

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