Your 2023 Off-Season Plan

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, almagest said:

Not my plan, but what I think they'll do:

1. Let Abreu walk
2. Bring Colas up once they get the extra year on him
3. Let Engel go
4. Get a healthy Bummer and Crochet back in the bullpen (Crochet should be starting in AAA but he's back in the pen)
5. Run it back with Eloy DH/LF, Pollock LF, Colas RF, Sosa/Gonzalez 2B

I don’t think Crochet is going to get any sort of starter innings next year since he hasn’t really gotten many going back to college days. He’ll get innings but I think more as a reliever workload. Might as well get them in the MLB.

[GREEDY]

18 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

He’ll get innings but I think more as a reliever workload. Might as well get them in the MLB.

I'd have him go once through the lineup paired with Kopech and whomever the likely right handed 5th starter is. 

Use the sporadic April schedule to get Michael 2 days away from the 5th spot.  The schedule won't be perfect but it won't be the end of the world for Crochet to skip an appearance and get the full 5 days rest every so often, and as the season progresses it is possible he is a match with other starting pitchers that are clearly not going extremely deep in games.

Then use an opener if necessary but Crochet enters the game to face a good matchup, likely a 4/5/6 LH batter.  Then he faces the lineup once thru and stays to face that good matchup a second time.  Then Garrett exits.  

I strongly prefer this to him being a situational lefty reliever.  This is the only real way to get him regular 40-50 pitch outings so he can get stretched into being a starter for 2024.  I also think the data really points towards this is being future for all pitchers if the league doesn't step in and make rule changes to discourage it.  

Edited October 12, 2022 by GREEDY

[Jack Parkman]

17 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I don’t think Crochet is going to get any sort of starter innings next year since he hasn’t really gotten many going back to college days. He’ll get innings but I think more as a reliever workload. Might as well get them in the MLB.

I'm at the point where they should trade Hendriks and make Crochet the closer. 

[bmags]

42 minutes ago, thedoctor said:

honestly, if ta, moncada, robert, eloy and giolito don't have huge bounceback/leap in production years, it probably doesn't matter what they do. if the "core" is truly rotten, then we're back to where we started.

This is why it's so annoying to keep Hahn to me. The most important thing they could do this offseason is try to improve their entire player development and acquisition operation. There's little they can do at the major league level anyway, for once, it really does look like it the best play is depth (because hahn spent all our money on depth).

I don't dislike getz as an individual, and I do think he has tried, but for the white sox to work they really need one of the best integrated player development and scouting operations in the league and we don't appear to be that right now.

[thedoctor]

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

This is why it's so annoying to keep Hahn to me. The most important thing they could do this offseason is try to improve their entire player development and acquisition operation. There's little they can do at the major league level anyway, for once, it really does look like it the best play is depth (because hahn spent all our money on depth).

I don't dislike getz as an individual, and I do think he has tried, but for the white sox to work they really need one of the best integrated player development and scouting operations in the league and we don't appear to be that right now.

i don't disagree at all, but i don't think that type of more significant overhaul will happen until jerry is gone. he isn't going to do anything that makes him uncomfortable, so he'll continue to run things in the way he always has.

the best we can hope for is that the talent that looked so great two years ago is actually that and that their decline was the result of some combination of bad luck/weird offseasons/a terrible management/etc. not exactly the type of thing to inspire confidence, but probably good enough to reach jerry's second-place goal.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Wow great post. You are so good at understanding value, I'm sure your history is not full of easily remembered examples of you being obnoxiously wrong about what contracts are movable.

You’re right. The White Sox were totally able to move Craig Kimbrel. I specifically remember how hard people came down on me for suggesting they would have to take bad money back, and my favorite was the day I said he was an average at best reliever. Boy did that ever provoke outrage.

So please, tell me how great his value is again. I really want to hear it. Please continue, Governor.

[Chicago White Sox]

22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You’re right. The White Sox were totally able to move Craig Kimbrel. I specifically remember how hard people came down on me for suggesting they would have to take bad money back, and my favorite was the day I said he was an average at best reliever. Boy did that ever provoke outrage.

So please, tell me how great his value is again. I really want to hear it. Please continue, Governor.

Pollock was coming off a 3.1 win season, how was that bad money unless you are using hindsight?

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You’re right. The White Sox were totally able to move Craig Kimbrel. I specifically remember how hard people came down on me for suggesting they would have to take bad money back, and my favorite was the day I said he was an average at best reliever. Boy did that ever provoke outrage.

So please, tell me how great his value is again. I really want to hear it. Please continue, Governor.

You said he was unmovable. He was not. You didn't say "sure they can move him but they'll have to take on a starting outfielder!" You've now thrown out that a 2 for $39 deal makes Hendriks too hard to move and also that if the sox want to move anything they most move all of their bad money and colson montgomery.

They can move, you may not clear 100% of their cost and get great prospects. Nobody said they have great value, that's your hang up. If the sox prioritize clearing the players salary over talent return, they can do that. If they prioritize talent return, they can swap contract liabilities or eat more money. 

But anyway, what does it matter, you'll just retrofit your argument to something else and claim that's what you meant.

 

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, thedoctor said:

honestly, if ta, moncada, robert, eloy and giolito don't have huge bounceback/leap in production years, it probably doesn't matter what they do. if the "core" is truly rotten, then we're back to where we started.

This.  Sox need most of these guys to be really good if they're going to be good.  IF you want to project the same production we got from those guys in 2023 as we got in 2022, legitimately nothing else they do to this team will matter.  So if that is your baseline projection, of course this team is going to suck. This isn't rocket science. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

You said he was unmovable. He was not. You didn't say "sure they can move him but they'll have to take on a starting outfielder!" You've now thrown out that a 2 for $39 deal makes Hendriks too hard to move and also that if the sox want to move anything they most move all of their bad money and colson montgomery.

They can move, you may not clear 100% of their cost and get great prospects. Nobody said they have great value, that's your hang up. If the sox prioritize clearing the players salary over talent return, they can do that. If they prioritize talent return, they can swap contract liabilities or eat more money. 

But anyway, what does it matter, you'll just retrofit your argument to something else and claim that's what you meant.

 

1. Hendriks is not due $39 million he's due $29 million.

2. Here's my exact words. What you just said is false, you are making up words to put in my mouth. I doubt the Rays would take his contract on, but his contract is absolutely movable, you're just not getting a strong return for him because $14 million a year relievers are quite highly paid. 

Quote

He is slightly more valuable than his contract. His contract could be moved to someone without picking up much money. The return would be a player, but not one of substantial value. That could mean an A baller, or a seemingly washed up prospect, or a utility guy, something like that. You don’t have to take a bad contract back to move him.

3. You are the one who just said that the White Sox could eat money in 4 years if they needed to clear out a bad contract. Isn't that precisely where the White Sox are right now? They're 3 years into Grandal's deal, and his deal has gone bad. Can the White Sox afford to "eat money" right now to clear out Grandal's contract? No, and you know that. It's easy to assert that "oh that contract would be a 4 years from now problem", but then when you look at the situation the White Sox are currently in, it meets literally all of the standards one would give for why the White Sox would do a deal like that.

a. In the middle of their competitive window.
b. Really could use the money on the FA market to go fill another hole.
c. Prospect is >1 year away, no spot for him next year.
d. Prospect is blocked by Tim Anderson who has 2 years of control remaining, and who (prior to this season) people might have even talked about extending him to keep him here for his career.

All of the things one might say for why the White Sox would use a prospect to clear out payroll are met in this case, but the moment one attaches a name to it, it's "OMG this guy is a future star and you're using him to clear salary you're an idiot!!!" - and that's exactly correct. I would have to be an idiot to do that. 

It is super easy to assert that these contracts won't be a problem in 4 years. That's why you're doing it. But you're staring at the end result of that assertion right now, and look how I dragged the outraged personal response out of you by just adding in the type of name it would take to make it happen. You're outraged at the concept and bringing in other debates because what it takes to deal with a "4 years from now" problem is actually really extreme for this organization. 

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

This.  Sox need most of these guys to be really good if they're going to be good.  IF you want to project the same production we got from those guys in 2023 as we got in 2022, legitimately nothing else they do to this team will matter.  So if that is your baseline projection, of course this team is going to suck. This isn't rocket science. 

This winter you have pretty much two choices how you want to view this team.  You can view them in the lens of 2020 and 2021, or you can view them in the lens of 2022. 

If you believe that the truth is closer to 2022, there is no point to spending on this team this winter.  The best you can hope for is to get some bounce backs from a couple of these guys to be able to deal them to start the rebuild.  Realistically, you could hope to deal them this winter, but dealing guys at their absolute basement values doesn't make much sense.

If you believe the truth is closer to 20-21, you look for the bounce backs and see if you can fill a couple of holes until the team rebounds enough to get the fans exited again.

Either way, the players on this squad don't have much value right now, so you can't really do much to alter this team this winter without doing it at bargains for player values.

[Lip Man 1]

For what its worth the people I'm speaking to to try to make sense of the past season and how important the off season is for an upcoming story are saying that somehow, someway the Sox need to move Grandal, Moncada and Anderson. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

10 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

For what its worth the people I'm speaking to to try to make sense of the past season and how important the off season is for an upcoming story are saying that somehow, someway the Sox need to move Grandal, Moncada and Anderson. 

That's a lot of movement that can't be true lol.

[ChiSox59]

15 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

For what its worth the people I'm speaking to to try to make sense of the past season and how important the off season is for an upcoming story are saying that somehow, someway the Sox need to move Grandal, Moncada and Anderson. 

Are these the same people that told you that Hahn is butthurt because the Cubs are laughing at the Sox about Eloy?  

Grandal is immoveable.  He's due $18.25M  He's a DFA, or salary dump for a couple million at best, which at that point, you may as well try to make use of him in a part time role since you're paying him anyway.  You can always cut him in June, and Seby and Perez are at least serviceable options. 

Sox need more players with the profile (not attitude) of Moncada, not less.  Getting rid of our 1 true plus defender and a guy that provides lineup balance when he has negative value makes no sense.  Sox are stuck with Moncada for 2023.

TA should in no way, shape, or form be grouped with those 2.  He has legitimate value, despite his shortcomings, and I believe the Sox could do quite well if they traded him.  But that feels like a move that in most scenarios, makes the 2023 team worse, not better.  Hard for me to wrap my head around Hahn taking that dive considering circumstances; feels to me he is pot committed to making something out of this core the next 2 seasons. 

Edited October 12, 2022 by ChiSox59

[A-Train to 35th]

Found this interesting take from a Boston perspective on Moncada-Devers from 5 years ago, before I caught myself fantasizing about offering Moncada back to Boston for Derver's since he's entering his last year of arbitration eligibility. I'm sure Boston would find the offer amusing.

https://bosoxinjection.com/2017/08/21/red-sox-rafael-devers-yoan-moncada-forever-linked/

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Are these the same people that told you that Hahn is butthurt because the Cubs are laughing at the Sox about Eloy?  

Grandal is immoveable.  He's due $18.25M  He's a DFA, or salary dump for a couple million at best, which at that point, you may as well try to make use of him in a part time role since you're paying him anyway.  You can always cut him in June, and Seby and Perez are at least serviceable options. 

Sox need more players with the profile (not attitude) of Moncada, not less.  Getting rid of our 1 true plus defender and a guy that provides lineup balance when he has negative value makes no sense.  Sox are stuck with Moncada for 2023.

TA should in no way, shape, or form be grouped with those 2.  He has legitimate value, despite his shortcomings, and I believe the Sox could do quite well if they traded him.  But that feels like a move that in most scenarios, makes the 2023 team worse, not better.  Hard for me to wrap my head around Hahn taking that dive considering circumstances; feels to me he is pot committed to making something out of this core the next 2 seasons. 

I agree with pretty much all of those.

I have found it weird that a few people have suggested trying to dump 4 or so players on the Dodgers - Moncada, Grandal, Anderson, and Hendriks, clearing out lots of money that way, and just going into next season fresh at each of those positions. The Dodgers would seemingly have room to do this and a couple of the players do match up with their needs (closer, 3b, SS are all open for them next year). I would have never thought this was feasible, but it's interesting that several people have suggested it and Lip has 3 of those same players listed. 

[Dick Allen]

Hopefully TA finds his way next season. Then, if Montgomery develops as hoped, you can trade him for more than you'll get for him now. 

Makes no sense to DFA Grandal. Might as well wait and see what you have in spring training. If his legs look like this year's version, you waive him.

I'd hate to trade Moncada now, and for little value, unless you are certain he isn't going to rebound to what he was pre-covid. Even in 2021 he was pretty valuable.  And if the Sox really knew about health, Rodon would have been given a QO.

Edited October 12, 2022 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

35 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

For what its worth the people I'm speaking to to try to make sense of the past season and how important the off season is for an upcoming story are saying that somehow, someway the Sox need to move Grandal, Moncada and Anderson. 

With the valuations of those three players at all time lows, and two of the three of them a year away from free agency potentially, they have zero value.  We'd be stupid to deal them now.  You have to hold on and hope for the 2021 versions of those players and that 22 was the fluke.

[Balta1701]

Presumably even if they’re fools they realize those things, but if they’re even considering doing so despite that reality they’d be motivated by behind-the-scenes stuff we don’t fully know about and an estimation that they can’t put the same guys in the locker room together again.

[southsider2k5]

25 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Presumably even if they’re fools they realize those things, but if they’re even considering doing so despite that reality they’d be motivated by behind-the-scenes stuff we don’t fully know about and an estimation that they can’t put the same guys in the locker room together again.

They are making the biggest change possible to change the environment on the clubhouse.

[fathom]

1 hour ago, Lip Man 1 said:

For what its worth the people I'm speaking to to try to make sense of the past season and how important the off season is for an upcoming story are saying that somehow, someway the Sox need to move Grandal, Moncada and Anderson. 

It’s funny I’ve heard the same 3 mentioned and I doubt we have similar connections.

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Presumably even if they’re fools they realize those things, but if they’re even considering doing so despite that reality they’d be motivated by behind-the-scenes stuff we don’t fully know about and an estimation that they can’t put the same guys in the locker room together again.

You may be closer to the truth than you realize. These are some of the comments I've already been told about this past season for example. Also remember moving guys can not only mean trading but in the Grandal situation DFA'ing much like Keuchel. In order to get honest, unbiased opinions from the folks I'm reaching out to I promised them their names or positions would not be used. What I can say is that all have been associated with the Sox professionally in one way or another sometimes for decades. The reader can judge for themselves the comments.

“The problem with this team is there was no real leadership, nobody to hold guys accountable. No red-asses like the Sox had in the past Carlton Fisk, Jack McDowell, A.J. Pierzynski. Paul Konerko was a quiet guy but when we weren’t doing well he’d get really pissed.  Andrus tried to supply some leadership when he came and Giolito tried.”

“I’d come into the locker room after a game and you couldn’t tell if they won or lost, just nothing.”

“You’d go in the locker room and all the Latino guys would be in one place, the whites in another and the African-Americans someplace else.”

“The problem is some of these guys just don’t care, they want to win sure but they already have gotten their money with these contracts before they proved anything. Moncada would strike out and just walk back to the dugout like no big deal, he fouls a ball off and now he can’t play for three days. His contract makes him untradable but he needs to go.”

“There was a lack of urgency the entire season. People would say the right things but they never translated.”

“To me it was the May 9 game with Cleveland, (Sox blew an 8-2, 9^th inning lead and lost in extra innings). That showed Cleveland that they could play with the Sox but what I noticed was the only person that game seemed to bother was Tony LaRussa. Another one was the Triple Play Game against the Twins. Adam Engel faced the music afterwards, he made a mistake and owned up to it. Moncada who also made a mistake was nowhere, he was already gone. Then the next day he was saying that he didn’t know people wanted to talk with him.”

Edited October 12, 2022 by Lip Man 1

[chitownsportsfan]

the problem has nothing to do with "red asses" and everything to do with s%*# players under-performing.

[Lip Man 1]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

the problem has nothing to do with "red asses" and everything to do with s%*# players under-performing.

I suggest part of the reason they underperformed is because there was no one holding them accountable either teammates or the manager. The long term deals may also be making an impact although that depends on the individual player's make up.  

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, Lip Man 1 said:

I suggest part of the reason they underperformed is because there was no one holding them accountable either teammates or the manager. The long term deals may also be making an impact although that depends on the individual player's make up.  

accountability is just something the media and fans talk about because it's harder to explain how a guy like moncada goes from a 5 WAR true talent to 2 WAR true talent in one season. 

I'm not saying that the leadership was poor and guys weren't held accountable (whatever that means) but I'm also saying it's a black box that really isn't helpful for team building this offseason.

If they had signed a a 3 WAR 2B and a 3 WAR RF they probably make the playoffs, and all this talk of accountability is muted. Get better players, make better decisions in FA.