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Your 2023 Off-Season Plan


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7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There don't seem to be any pieces at all regarding his injury, but the insiders and free agent rankers are starting to come out and they seem to think he's available.

Here's Keith Law over at the Athletic, Conforto comes in 49th out of 50 free agents.

https://theathletic.com/3751518/2022/11/02/top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions/

Here is an article today projecting contract terms and they have Conforto as 1 year, $14 million (they have Nimmo at 7/$145 by the way)

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2022/11/mlb-insider-reveals-projected-contract-terms-for-top-yankees-mets-free-agents-aaron-judge-jacob-degrom-more.html

Here's a top 30 by Heyman at the New York post, including contract estimates. He also has Conforto estimated at 1 year, $14 million. Also no suggestion that his injury will prevent him from signing. 

https://nypost.com/2022/11/03/major-league-baseball-ranking-top-30-free-agents/

Same numbers for Nimmo, 7/$145, and has Benintendi at 4 years, $56 million.

 

wow.  Give me those Conforto numbers over either of tose other OF any day of the week.

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1 hour ago, Springfield Soxfan said:

Preparing for the pounding that will ensue; however, I am DREAMING of Trea Turner to play 2b.  Was hoping Sox would have drafted him over Rodon.  

No reason not to want amazing players on the sox. I couldn't believe we let turner get traded without being the top team rumored the entire time, especially considering what happened with Madrigal. Big missed opportunity. But yeah, there's no chance now.

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2 hours ago, Springfield Soxfan said:

Preparing for the pounding that will ensue; however, I am DREAMING of Trea Turner to play 2b.  Was hoping Sox would have drafted him over Rodon.  

If they did want to sign Turner, I think they’d trade Anderson. That won’t happen either, but I think that’s more likely than keeping both, especially with Anderson getting closer to free agency. 

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17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I doubt he gets more than one year deal with a player option and even that might be pushing it.  Dude hasn’t put up a productive season in two years.

I am thinking 1/$12-14M, with a $20M team option with $3M buyout.  So $15-17M guaranteed.  

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11 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

If we sign Conforto for $14M and let Abreu walk, we’d still have around $15M to sign another SP, right?  Then let the young guys battle for the 2B job. 

Depends on who you ask, but yeah, Sox should have somewhere between $25-30M AVV to spend on the 2023 roster to stay under$200M, and around where they were were this past season.  

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13 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

If we sign Conforto for $14M and let Abreu walk, we’d still have around $15M to sign another SP, right?  Then let the young guys battle for the 2B job. 

Conforto + Senga would be my main adds.  I’d look to deal Leury and see if I can  find a player with little value who better fits the roster.  Brad Miller would be risky, but would make more sense for our team if we decide to go young at 2B.

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22 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

If we sign Conforto for $14M and let Abreu walk, we’d still have around $15M to sign another SP, right?  Then let the young guys battle for the 2B job. 

If the MLBTradeRumors arbitration numbers are correct, the White Sox are at $172-$173 million. Spotrac agrees with this number, assuming they let Engel go. Their payroll last year was about $195 million.

If they don't increase their payroll, and they spend $14 million on Conforto, they'd have about $8 million left for a pitcher, give or take exact arbitration numbers. A $15 million pitcher means they need to boost their payroll up over $200 million.

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28 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

If we sign Conforto for $14M and let Abreu walk, we’d still have around $15M to sign another SP, right?  Then let the young guys battle for the 2B job. 

I am sure Balta will tell you his numbers are better, but I have it more like $168.8M at the moment, not including signing bonuses spread across multiple years, a differed $1M due to Abreu, etc.  True salary is $168.8M.  I also believe Sox final 2022 payroll was $197M.

Guaranteed

  • Lynn - $18.5M
  • Grandal - $18.25M
  • Moncada - $17M
  • Hendriks - $14M
  • Pollock - $13M (player option with $5M buyout)
  • Anderson - $12.5M (team option)
  • Jimenez - $9.5M
  • Robert - $9.5M
  • Kelly - $9M
  • Graveman - $8M
  • Garcia - $5.5M
  • Bummer - $3.75M
  • Diekman - $3.5M

*This assumes White Sox turn down Harrison's $5.5M team option*

*Other impending FA's include Abreu, Cueto, Valasquez, and Andrus*

TOTAL GUARANTEED = $142M

Arbitration Eligible *updated based on MLBTR projections*

  • Cease (arb 1) - $5.3M
  • Kopech (arb 1) - $2.2M
  • Mendick (arb 1) - $1M
  • Giolito (arb 3) - $10.8M
  • Lopez (arb 3) - $3.3M
  • Engel (arb 3) - NON TENDER (MLBTR projection of $2.3M)
  • Ruiz (arb 1) - NON TENDER (MLBTR projection of $1M)
  • Crochet (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Gonzalez (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Lambert (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Sheets (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Vaughn (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Zavala (pre-arb) - $700k

TOTAL ARB = $26.8M; TOTAL PAYROLL = $168.8M

The White Sox 2022 payroll was ~$197M, so this gives the Sox around $30M to spend to match 2022 payroll

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Things being missed:

The minimum salary is $720,000, not $700,000. This totals an extra $120k for the players listed.

Only 24 players are included. This is an extra $1.44 million not being counted, although that can be shifted to other guys if someone is signed. 

$1 million in deferred money to Abreu.
 

$197 million is the payroll last year - if you are counting things like Moncada's signing bonus, Pollock's signing bonus as part of last year's salary. Or, alternatively, it looks that high if you count guys like Romy as receiving a full year's salary, when they only receive a portion of the years' salary. If you total up everyone that they spent big league money on, it comes out around $190 million without the signing bonuses. 

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Jose Abreu 18
Lance Lynn 18.5
Yasmani Grandal 18.25
AJ Pollock 11.5
Yoan Moncada 13
Liam Hendriks 13
Kendall Graveman 8
Lucas Giolito 7.45
Eloy Jimenez 6.5
Joe Kelly 7
Leury Garcia 5.5
Josh Harrison 4
Johnny Cueto 3.2
Vincent Velaszquez 3
Reynaldo Lopez 2.625
Aaron Bummer 2.5
Adam Engel 2
Jake Diekman 1.23
Dylan Cease 0.75
Jose Ruiz 0.72
Andrew Vaughn 0.715
Gavin Sheets 0.671
Jimmy Lambert 0.48
Davis Martin 0.2
Romy Gonzalez 0.188
Elvis Andrus 0.184
Carlos Perez 0.069
Mark Payton 0.053
Tim Anderson 9.5
Luis Robert 6
Kyle Crick 1.25
Michael Kopech 0.73
Garret Crochet 0.715
Jonathan Stiever 0.7
Danny Mendick 0.67
Seby Zabala 0.44
Dallas Keuchel 18
Reese McGuire 0.468
Ryan Burr 0.187
Yermin Mercedes 0.15
Matt Foster 0.539
Tanner Banks 0.503
Jake Burger 0.396
Haseley 0.1
Lenyn Sosa 0.065
Nicholas Padilla 0.7
Bennett Sousa 0.28
Anderson Severino 0.076
  190.754

 

 

Signign bonuses:
Pollock: $3 million
Abreu: $1.68 Million
Moncada: $800k
Hendriks: $333k
Jimenez: $833k

If you count those as part of the 2022 payroll to get up to looking like $197 million, then this must be added to the 2023 payroll:
Mondada: $800k
Hendriks $333K
Jimenez $833K
(an extra just under $2 million)

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