Your 2023 Off-Season Plan

[bmags]

26 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Good thing the Sox are already laden with left handed hitters.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/james-outman/24770/stats?position=OF

OUTMAN! OUTMAN! OUT MAN! OUTTTTTMANNNNNN

The people want the sox to trade for outman I'm hearing.

[he gone.]

On 10/26/2022 at 10:04 AM, he gone. said:

We'll bookmark this for when he signs. I'll go 1 year, $16mm. 

Don't forget ... Seiya Suzuki, $17mm annually, Avi garcia $13.25mm annually, Soler $12mm annually (all multi year), Mark Canha $13.25mm annually...Schwarbs $20mm. Andrew McCutchen got $8.5mm, Tommy Pham got $7.5mm...

If you're saying the price of Conforto is less than Mark Canha just cause of a shoulder injury and time off then sign me up. Getting the same type of deal that McCutchen got would be a steal. I'd fire my agent in a second if that's what he told me to sign. 

Just a reminder Conforto turned down a 1/18mm deal ... I know he had a shoulder, but I'd be shocked if he takes less than 15mm on a year deal. I'd venture he'd take something like 3/42mm just as a safety net on years if you gave him options out after each year (like nick martinez), but he's not settling for 10mm on a year basis.

I was told my takes were bad ... 

 

44. Michael Conforto. One year, $15MM.

Steve: Red Sox / Tim: Red Sox / Anthony: Rangers / Darragh: Reds

Conforto looked like he was on his way to potentially waiting for the 2022 draft so he could shed the draft-pick compensation attached to him after rejecting a qualifying offer from the Mets last year. Instead, a shoulder injury sustained during the lockout required surgery that wiped out his entire 2022 campaign.

Conforto was coming off a down season in the first place, as his 2021 slash of .232/.344/.384 paled in comparison to the .265/.369/.495 line he’d logged from 2017-20 combined. Now, he’ll test the market with uncertainty surrounding his shoulder and with two years having elapsed since his that 2017-20 peak. The upside here is an All-Star right fielder with 30-homer power, so there should still be interest — just likely on a short-term deal. Conforto won’t even turn 30 until March, so if he bounces back in 2023, a one-year deal (or a multi-year deal that allows him to return to the market via opt-out/player option next winter) could still give him a chance at a nine-figure deal as a 31-year-old.

[SoxBlanco]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/james-outman/24770/stats?position=OF

OUTMAN! OUTMAN! OUT MAN! OUTTTTTMANNNNNN

The people want the sox to trade for outman I'm hearing.

Is that 1.000 career BABIP sustainable?  If so, I'll take him.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I was thinking more Yaz on a buy low but I think that would cost less than Gio.

That actually comes back as fair value here, in fact Gio is shown as less valuable than Yaz. 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

Do the Giants have anyone else who could play CF? It looks like someone named Austin Slater played there roughly 1/3 of the time last year, but he sure looks like a 30 year old journeyman type player with big platoon splits, so he really can't be a full time CF unless they have another lefty who can defend in CF. 

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That actually comes back as fair value here, in fact Gio is shown as less valuable than Yaz. 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

Do the Giants have anyone else who could play CF? It looks like someone named Austin Slater played there roughly 1/3 of the time last year, but he sure looks like a 30 year old journeyman type player with big platoon splits, so he really can't be a full time CF unless they have another lefty who can defend in CF. 

How is Gonzalez in CF?

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So you cannot give such an example. I rest my case. 

More like there is no sense wasting my time.  But yes, rest your case.  Please.

[Snopek]

I’m not really understanding the trading Gio thing when SP is one of their bigger needs.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

How is Gonzalez in CF?

He was a negative defender at both corner OF slots last year according to both UZR and OAA, with a big negative on Range. It wasn't a full season of data so you can quibble with how representative it is, but with the size of the OF in San Francisco, if he already doesn't have good range at the corners, that seems like a pretty bad matchup.

Maybe the Giants could sign Judge and Kiermaier and that would make them more content to move Yaz out of the way for pitching. But again, this has gotten so complicated that I'm not sure why the Giants wouldn't just sign a starter.

[bmags]

25 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Is that 1.000 career BABIP sustainable?  If so, I'll take him.

Outman is going to end up terrible and dick allen will never let me live it down

[bmags]

27 minutes ago, he gone. said:

Just a reminder Conforto turned down a 1/18mm deal ... I know he had a shoulder, but I'd be shocked if he takes less than 15mm on a year deal. I'd venture he'd take something like 3/42mm just as a safety net on years if you gave him options out after each year (like nick martinez), but he's not settling for 10mm on a year basis.

I was told my takes were bad ... 

 

44. Michael Conforto. One year, $15MM.

Steve: Red Sox / Tim: Red Sox / Anthony: Rangers / Darragh: Reds

Conforto looked like he was on his way to potentially waiting for the 2022 draft so he could shed the draft-pick compensation attached to him after rejecting a qualifying offer from the Mets last year. Instead, a shoulder injury sustained during the lockout required surgery that wiped out his entire 2022 campaign.

Conforto was coming off a down season in the first place, as his 2021 slash of .232/.344/.384 paled in comparison to the .265/.369/.495 line he’d logged from 2017-20 combined. Now, he’ll test the market with uncertainty surrounding his shoulder and with two years having elapsed since his that 2017-20 peak. The upside here is an All-Star right fielder with 30-homer power, so there should still be interest — just likely on a short-term deal. Conforto won’t even turn 30 until March, so if he bounces back in 2023, a one-year deal (or a multi-year deal that allows him to return to the market via opt-out/player option next winter) could still give him a chance at a nine-figure deal as a 31-year-old.

I would not pay conforto anything more than league min, personally.

[Leonard Zelig]

Is there really a baseball position player named Outman?  That’s funny.  Kinda like a golfer named Bogeyman.  Now if he was a pitcher, that would be a badass name. 

[fathom]

29 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

How is Gonzalez in CF?

Gonzalez is not good. He faded big time last season. Doubt he’s anything more than a 4th outfielder.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Extending the QO to Gio at the end of this season and getting the pick is probably equal or more value to what you could possibly get right now for him. Think what the Cubs did with Contreras. He’s still more valuable to this team than anywhere else right now, and you still have the option of flipping him at the deadline if the team stinks. I don’t think a competitive 2023 Sox team exists without Gio on this team (along with a decent bounce back from him).

[bmags]

18 minutes ago, Leonard Zelig said:

Is there really a baseball position player named Outman?  That’s funny.  Kinda like a golfer named Bogeyman.  Now if he was a pitcher, that would be a badass name. 

He's an outfielder so he has some positive momentum to his name

[bmags]

Real question isn't luis gonzalez, it's Trayce thompson

[southsider2k5]

25 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Extending the QO to Gio at the end of this season and getting the pick is probably equal or more value to what you could possibly get right now for him. Think what the Cubs did with Contreras. He’s still more valuable to this team than anywhere else right now, and you still have the option of flipping him at the deadline if the team stinks. I don’t think a competitive 2023 Sox team exists without Gio on this team (along with a decent bounce back from him).

I will say this much about Gio.  Almost all of his drop off last year traces back to his defense.  His FIP alone is almost a run lower than his actual ERA.  Much of the run up in H/9 is also related to the defense.  Teams aren't stupid, and can see these numbers in front of them, probably in a much more detailed format than the generic stats which are out there.  He is a guy who gives you 30 starts a season, and works into the 7th inning pretty much every 5 days.  Those guys are hard to find, and can save a pen.  Lucas Giolito has a lot more value than people are giving him.

[HOFHurt35]

I'd boot Rick Hahn upstairs to a glorified president position RIGHT DAMN NOW and bring in Click to run this team.  

The Rays have done more with less than any other team in history.  This fits Reinsdorf's model.  And now Click has won the big one with the Astros. 

[Chicago White Sox]

The Sox need to make a call if they are in or they are out.  If they are in, then Hahn needs to be willing to tap into the farm system in a way that will hurt to make up for Jerry being a cheap asshole.  If they are out, then they need to start trading away pieces this off-season, with Anderson, Cease, Hendriks, & Giolito the first four guys who should be moved.

Under an “in” scenario, I think you got to go get Bryan Reynolds.  I absolutely despise the notion of giving up Montgomery, but there is no other realistic way to get there.  You’d probably also have to give up Crochet and a third lesser piece to get to the finishing line, but it’s in the realm of possibility.  After that, I’d go out and sign Syndrrgaard to a 2/$28M deal.  

I get the stuff wasn’t really there last year and probably never returns to what it once was, but he was also coming off two seasons without basically pitching.  Despite that, he was a still an effective back of the rotation starter, is still relatively young, and offers more upside than guys in this range.  Give him a chance to work with Katz and hope you can get #3 type production out of him.

The two moves above result in $21M in additional payroll.  I’m assuming that will cap us out financially, which means the last couple of moves need to be salary neutral.  The first thing I’d do is swap Leury for Brad Miller.  Both are coming off really bad seasons, but Leury is younger and probably offers more upside given.  Might need to throw them $2M to $3M million to bridge part of the salary gap, but I’d be more than ok with that (anything above $1.5M would go towards 2024).

With Pollock gone, we now need a 4th OF and preferably a RH one to take some pressure off of Colas.  The guy I would target is Kyle Lewis who is coming off a very rough season and has lost a ton of luster.  Not sure what he would cost at this point, but I’d throw out Mendick plus a C tier prospect.  I’m not expecting his rookie year performance, but he’s an interesting buy low guy to provide some much needed OF depth.

Finally, I’d look to move Jake Burger for the best SP depth or swingman option that I could find.  David Martin is fine as our #6 starter, but there is not much else behind him.  Not expecting a stud but anything is better than the garbage sitting at the bottom of 40 man roster.

Ultimately, here is how the roster would shake out:

1. Moncada, 3B#
2. Anderson, SS
3. Jimenez, DH
4. Reynolds, LF*
5. Vaughn, 1B
6. Robert, CF
7. Grandal, C#
8. Colas, RF*
9. Sosa, 2B

• IF: Miller*
• OF: Lewis
• UT: Gonzalez
• BC: Zavala

1. Cease
2. Lynn
3. Kopech
4. Thor
5. Giolito

• CL: Hendricks
• SU: Graveman
• SU: Bummer*
• SU: Lopez
• MR: Kelly
• MR: Diekman*
• MR: Lambert
• LR: (Burger Trade)

I think that team can compete if enough guys return to form.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Feel like the Sox could get a nice haul from the Dodgers for Hendriks.

[Saufley]

1 hour ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Feel like the Sox could get a nice haul from the Dodgers for Hendriks.

I'd kick the tires on that one.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I will say this much about Gio.  Almost all of his drop off last year traces back to his defense.  His FIP alone is almost a run lower than his actual ERA.  Much of the run up in H/9 is also related to the defense.  Teams aren't stupid, and can see these numbers in front of them, probably in a much more detailed format than the generic stats which are out there.  He is a guy who gives you 30 starts a season, and works into the 7th inning pretty much every 5 days.  Those guys are hard to find, and can save a pen.  Lucas Giolito has a lot more value than people are giving him.

Not entire true. Don’t forget his FB saw significant velo drop compared to 2021. Losing a full 1 mph is a pretty significant disadvantage to how his stuff plays up in the  zone and shortens the separation between his FB and CH.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The Sox need to make a call if they are in or they are out.  If they are in, then Hahn needs to be willing to tap into the farm system in a way that will hurt to make up for Jerry being a cheap asshole.  If they are out, then they need to start trading away pieces this off-season, with Anderson, Cease, Hendriks, & Giolito the first four guys who should be moved.

Under an “in” scenario, I think you got to go get Bryan Reynolds.  I absolutely despise the notion of giving up Montgomery, but there is no other realistic way to get there.  You’d probably also have to give up Crochet and a third lesser piece to get to the finishing line, but it’s in the realm of possibility.  After that, I’d go out and sign Syndrrgaard to a 2/$28M deal.  

I get the stuff wasn’t really there last year and probably never returns to what it once was, but he was also coming off two seasons without basically pitching.  Despite that, he was a still an effective back of the rotation starter, is still relatively young, and offers more upside than guys in this range.  Give him a chance to work with Katz and hope you can get #3 type production out of him.

The two moves above result in $21M in additional payroll.  I’m assuming that will cap us out financially, which means the last couple of moves need to be salary neutral.  The first thing I’d do is swap Leury for Brad Miller.  Both are coming off really bad seasons, but Leury is younger and probably offers more upside given.  Might need to throw them $2M to $3M million to bridge part of the salary gap, but I’d be more than ok with that (anything above $1.5M would go towards 2024).

With Pollock gone, we now need a 4th OF and preferably a RH one to take some pressure off of Colas.  The guy I would target is Kyle Lewis who is coming off a very rough season and has lost a ton of luster.  Not sure what he would cost at this point, but I’d throw out Mendick plus a C tier prospect.  I’m not expecting his rookie year performance, but he’s an interesting buy low guy to provide some much needed OF depth.

Finally, I’d look to move Jake Burger for the best SP depth or swingman option that I could find.  David Martin is fine as our #6 starter, but there is not much else behind him.  Not expecting a stud but anything is better than the garbage sitting at the bottom of 40 man roster.

Ultimately, here is how the roster would shake out:

1. Moncada, 3B#
2. Anderson, SS
3. Jimenez, DH
4. Reynolds, LF*
5. Vaughn, 1B
6. Robert, CF
7. Grandal, C#
8. Colas, RF*
9. Sosa, 2B

• IF: Miller*
• OF: Lewis
• UT: Gonzalez
• BC: Zavala

1. Cease
2. Lynn
3. Kopech
4. Thor
5. Giolito

• CL: Hendricks
• SU: Graveman
• SU: Bummer*
• SU: Lopez
• MR: Kelly
• MR: Diekman*
• MR: Lambert
• LR: (Burger Trade)

I think that team can compete if enough guys return to form.

While that team can compete if enough guys return to form, I continue to believe that I'd say "that team can compete if enough guys return to form" if all they did was sign Gallo and Kiermaier and back of the rotation pitcher. 

That leads to the key point. However good of a job we do adding players this offseason - it won't matter nearly as much as getting the guys currently here back to form. If you do a spectacular job of adding players, they might get you 25% of the way caught up with Cleveland, while the other 75% has to come internally. And second, what are the odds that the current guys won't get us there? Seems annoyingly high to me.

In other words, I would still go with "First do no harm" as the message this offseason. We don't know what things will look like next year, but if Moncada and Grandal struggle again that might be all it takes to leave that team missing the playoffs again, and now they traded Montgomery and are 1 year from losing Anderson and have only 2 pitchers in their 2024 rotation. Was that worth losing Montgomery and Crochet? Naw.

Worry about that at the trade deadline if you have to, don't trade away anyone of really any value during the offseason. You could do everything right in the trades, have everyone scouted correctly, and still set the team back a couple years. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Not entire true. Don’t forget his FB saw significant velo drop compared to 2021. Losing a full 1 mph is a pretty significant disadvantage to how his stuff plays up in the  zone and shortens the separation between his FB and CH.

A lot of people have also noticed the 200 rpm drop in his spin rates on his fastball this year as well.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/james-outman/24770/stats?position=OF

OUTMAN! OUTMAN! OUT MAN! OUTTTTTMANNNNNN

The people want the sox to trade for outman I'm hearing.

 I brought Outman up last year as someone I would've liked before the Kimbrel trade happened.

[tray]

Pito will probably be available for cheap.

If so, sign Pito for 2-3 years and launch Vaughn for pitching.

Try to sign Bennentendi and/or Trea Turner.

Hendriks is not un-tradeable.

Trade for another OFer if Colas does not look like he can play RF and handle major league pitching.

Trade Lance Lynn and look for another TOR starter

 

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by tray