Your 2023 Off-Season Plan

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

It’s not a service time thing, it’s that it’s rare that players are immediately consistent key contributors upon their first taste of the big leagues. It would just be a very bad plan to go into the season where you’re “expecting to compete” completely reliant on a rookie who is statistically more likely to fail a time or two than to succeed.

Even if you think the kid is special and very ready, you AT LEAST have to have a substantial hedge. That’s no indictment on Colas; for every Juan Soto, there are like 20 Aramis Ramirezes 

Like it or not, I don't see any way that the White Sox can come up with a "substantial hedge" for this guy, or for 2b for that matter.

Right now, they have 1 outfielder on their roster. Any other version of this - Sheets or Eloy in the OF - is worse than counting on Colas as it's almost certain to fail and puts both the pitching and guys playing around them in jeopardy. The only other options are either not big league quality (Payton), utility guys (Leury, Romy), or would only be in the big leagues if we were insistent on playing service time games with Colas and have even bigger issues (Cespedes, Rutherford, Adolfo, not even sure if any of them were released).

They clearly have some money left to spend, but they're already at nearly $170 million, more if you count the buyout for Pollock as part of 2023. Just bringing in 1 outfielder is probably going to cost $10 million - Kepler would have cost nearly that, Benintendi would certainly cost more than that on a multi year deal. In reality, just to cover LF and a backup CF you'd probably want to spend nearly $20 million if you did that through free agency, and that's probably more than the White Sox have in their budget.

There's just no resources for a substantial hedge here or at 2b. If they try to come up with one, then that leaves their other holes even worse - they'd have to come up with resources by dumping a Hendriks to do so. 

They might have something creative they can pull off in a trade, but they have so little to trade it's hard to see that being smart either. Are they going to trade for 3 outfielders? 

The only real way to make this work is to plug one corner OF hole as well as they can, whether through trades or free agency with what they have left, figure out who can be a backup OF that could legitimately play 80 games (no this shouldn't be Leury), and hope for the best in the other OF spot with Colas.

If this is an untenable situation, then the White Sox are in an untenable spot. The only other real solution would be to start selling off significant numbers of players and waiving the white flag. Unless they're going to substantially expand payroll next year beyond the $190 million spent in 2022, Colas is basically one of the main OFs for the full season and more than likely Sosa and Romy are going to be major contributors at 2b. 

[ChiSox59]

36 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Like it or not, I don't see any way that the White Sox can come up with a "substantial hedge" for this guy, or for 2b for that matter.

Right now, they have 1 outfielder on their roster. Any other version of this - Sheets or Eloy in the OF - is worse than counting on Colas as it's almost certain to fail and puts both the pitching and guys playing around them in jeopardy. The only other options are either not big league quality (Payton), utility guys (Leury, Romy), or would only be in the big leagues if we were insistent on playing service time games with Colas and have even bigger issues (Cespedes, Rutherford, Adolfo, not even sure if any of them were released).

They clearly have some money left to spend, but they're already at nearly $170 million, more if you count the buyout for Pollock as part of 2023. Just bringing in 1 outfielder is probably going to cost $10 million - Kepler would have cost nearly that, Benintendi would certainly cost more than that on a multi year deal. In reality, just to cover LF and a backup CF you'd probably want to spend nearly $20 million if you did that through free agency, and that's probably more than the White Sox have in their budget.

There's just no resources for a substantial hedge here or at 2b. If they try to come up with one, then that leaves their other holes even worse - they'd have to come up with resources by dumping a Hendriks to do so. 

They might have something creative they can pull off in a trade, but they have so little to trade it's hard to see that being smart either. Are they going to trade for 3 outfielders? 

The only real way to make this work is to plug one corner OF hole as well as they can, whether through trades or free agency with what they have left, figure out who can be a backup OF that could legitimately play 80 games (no this shouldn't be Leury), and hope for the best in the other OF spot with Colas.

If this is an untenable situation, then the White Sox are in an untenable spot. The only other real solution would be to start selling off significant numbers of players and waiving the white flag. Unless they're going to substantially expand payroll next year beyond the $190 million spent in 2022, Colas is basically one of the main OFs for the full season and more than likely Sosa and Romy are going to be major contributors at 2b. 

I’d love that hedge to be Profar. He’d be an awesome fit for this roster. But I’m sure there is a reason the Pads moves him off 2B completely this past season (tho they had plenty of IF options), and that definitely hurts his utility for the Sox. But still think he’d be a great complement to Conforto or Gallo or Benintendi. But to your point…..if $20M is the hard line (I don’t think it is), it’ll be tough to make it fit. Or like our convo the other day, now we’re relying on Cespedes or Payton to contribute.

Brandon Drury is another name that if paired with one of LH OFs, I like it a lot more. Wish he at least hit RHP better historically. 

Edited November 30, 2022 by ChiSox59

[Eminor3rd]

34 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Like it or not, I don't see any way that the White Sox can come up with a "substantial hedge" for this guy, or for 2b for that matter.

Right now, they have 1 outfielder on their roster. Any other version of this - Sheets or Eloy in the OF - is worse than counting on Colas as it's almost certain to fail and puts both the pitching and guys playing around them in jeopardy. The only other options are either not big league quality (Payton), utility guys (Leury, Romy), or would only be in the big leagues if we were insistent on playing service time games with Colas and have even bigger issues (Cespedes, Rutherford, Adolfo, not even sure if any of them were released).

They clearly have some money left to spend, but they're already at nearly $170 million, more if you count the buyout for Pollock as part of 2023. Just bringing in 1 outfielder is probably going to cost $10 million - Kepler would have cost nearly that, Benintendi would certainly cost more than that on a multi year deal. In reality, just to cover LF and a backup CF you'd probably want to spend nearly $20 million if you did that through free agency, and that's probably more than the White Sox have in their budget.

There's just no resources for a substantial hedge here or at 2b. If they try to come up with one, then that leaves their other holes even worse - they'd have to come up with resources by dumping a Hendriks to do so. 

They might have something creative they can pull off in a trade, but they have so little to trade it's hard to see that being smart either. Are they going to trade for 3 outfielders? 

The only real way to make this work is to plug one corner OF hole as well as they can, whether through trades or free agency with what they have left, figure out who can be a backup OF that could legitimately play 80 games (no this shouldn't be Leury), and hope for the best in the other OF spot with Colas.

If this is an untenable situation, then the White Sox are in an untenable spot. The only other real solution would be to start selling off significant numbers of players and waiving the white flag. Unless they're going to substantially expand payroll next year beyond the $190 million spent in 2022, Colas is basically one of the main OFs for the full season and more than likely Sosa and Romy are going to be major contributors at 2b. 

Well, a guy like Benintendi is much more than a "substantial hedge." There will be serviceable but boring OFs available in their budget closer to ST. That's what I mean -- a guy with an above replacement level floor but that can be cast aside or shifted to 4th OF if Colas outplays him.

FWIW, it' just my hunch/opinion, but I don't think the $180M is a hard limit. I think they'll be shopping for an OF all offseason and will be willing to go at least IN to the 180s to get it done if they find a guy they like. I don't think 2B will be addressed at all -- and honestly, given the constraints, I wouldn't address it either. I'd prioritize a decent OF first, then buy some scrap pitching depth, C depth (perhaps), an maybe even a fringey 4th OF with whatever was left. 

[Eminor3rd]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

Better him than the bucket of $8-$10M veterans.

I'm not totally sure I agree. Or, maybe I do, but I think there will be some $1 - 6M veterans available in February to get to be the hedge. Remember, the Sox need to add more than one OF if you think Eloy should spend a lot of time at DH and Sheets should spend a lot of time not on the 25-man roster. The second guy they add need not be all that good, just above replacement level.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Eminor3rd

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Well, a guy like Benintendi is much more than a "substantial hedge." There will be serviceable but boring OFs available in their budget closer to ST. That's what I mean -- a guy with an above replacement level floor but that can be cast aside or shifted to 4th OF if Colas outplays him.

FWIW, it' just my hunch/opinion, but I don't think the $180M is a hard limit. I think they'll be shopping for an OF all offseason and will be willing to go at least IN to the 180s to get it done if they find a guy they like. I don't think 2B will be addressed at all -- and honestly, given the constraints, I wouldn't address it either. I'd prioritize a decent OF first, then buy some scrap pitching depth, C depth (perhaps), a maybe even a fringey 4th OF with whatever was left. 

Benintendi would be starting on the other side. Again; they have 1 OF. They need a starter in LF and a backup who can play some CF and that’s if Colas is the starter for a substantial fraction of the season. If you couldn’t count on Colas, doing Bellinger, Gallo, and Kiermaier is probably $25 million and that alone takes the payroll to nearly $195 million.

[Balta1701]

33 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I’d love that hedge to be Profar. He’d be an awesome fit for this roster. But I’m sure there is a reason the Pads moves him off 2B completely this past season (tho they had plenty of IF options), and that definitely hurts his utility for the Sox. But still think he’d be a great complement to Conforto or Gallo or Benintendi. But to your point…..if $20M is the hard line (I don’t think it is), it’ll be tough to make it fit. Or like our convo the other day, now we’re relying on Cespedes or Payton to contribute.

Brandon Drury is another name that if paired with one of LH OFs, I like it a lot more. Wish he at least hit RHP better historically. 

My worry with Profar is CF. He’s played there 21 games in his career and not last year. I’m imagining Robert spraining a wrist and the White Sox trying to avoid putting him on the IL because they don’t think either Colas or Profar could handle the position for two weeks, which seems like a relevant concern. Concept works other than that big issue?

[Eminor3rd]

18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Benintendi would be starting on the other side. Again; they have 1 OF. They need a starter in LF and a backup who can play some CF and that’s if Colas is the starter for a substantial fraction of the season. If you couldn’t count on Colas, doing Bellinger, Gallo, and Kiermaier is probably $25 million and that alone takes the payroll to nearly $195 million.

Yeah I think everyone is just aiming higher than I am when I'm talking about a hedge. As for a starter, the trade market is still open, and I don't think Eloy's days in the OF are over. I'm hoping Gavin's are. But if you find a way to get one starter, you can get a scrap heap guy as a 4th, that gives you Robert + starter you traded for or maybe signed + Eloy job split with hopefully a scrap heap guy (there's 4) and then maybe Colas comes up and takes time from the scrap heaper or gets Eloy to permanent DH. Don't forget they can and probably will stick Leury in a corner sometimes and probably think Sheets could do it in a pinch. 

I'm not saying it's good, I'm just kind of trying to come up with a realistic scenario I think Hahn could/might potentially engineer

[Balta1701]

52 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Yeah I think everyone is just aiming higher than I am when I'm talking about a hedge. As for a starter, the trade market is still open, and I don't think Eloy's days in the OF are over. I'm hoping Gavin's are. But if you find a way to get one starter, you can get a scrap heap guy as a 4th, that gives you Robert + starter you traded for or maybe signed + Eloy job split with hopefully a scrap heap guy (there's 4) and then maybe Colas comes up and takes time from the scrap heaper or gets Eloy to permanent DH. Don't forget they can and probably will stick Leury in a corner sometimes and probably think Sheets could do it in a pinch. 

I'm not saying it's good, I'm just kind of trying to come up with a realistic scenario I think Hahn could/might potentially engineer

If Eloy and Sheets at the corners is like the 4th emergency backup plan that gets deployed once this year, that’s fine. But if Eloys days in the OF as anything more than a fill in who plays there a few games during the year aren’t over, then this hasn’t been a serious attempt at fixing this team.

[BigHurt3515]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

My worry with Profar is CF. He’s played there 21 games in his career and not last year. I’m imagining Robert spraining a wrist and the White Sox trying to avoid putting him on the IL because they don’t think either Colas or Profar could handle the position for two weeks, which seems like a relevant concern. Concept works other than that big issue?

You must have forgotten about Leury Garcia

[Eminor3rd]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If Eloy and Sheets at the corners is like the 4th emergency backup plan that gets deployed once this year, that’s fine. But if Eloys days in the OF as anything more than a fill in who plays there a few games during the year aren’t over, then this hasn’t been a serious attempt at fixing this team.

Yeah, I mean. It hasn’t been a serious attempt at contention. You don’t cut payroll 15% three years into your “window” with your core still in place, if you actually give a s%*#. 

[Balta1701]

53 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Yeah, I mean. It hasn’t been a serious attempt at contention. You don’t cut payroll 15% three years into your “window” with your core still in place, if you actually give a s%*#. 

There are still different degrees of gambles.

I don’t know what will happen if I try to play Colas in RF for 130 games.

I know what will happen if I try to play Eloy in LF for 50 games.

[Eminor3rd]

35 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There are still different degrees of gambles.

I don’t know what will happen if I try to play Colas in RF for 130 games.

I know what will happen if I try to play Eloy in LF for 50 games.

I’m not saying you don’t give Colas a shot, I’m saying you cannot afford for it to be your only solution. 

Eloy has proven that he can outhit his bad defense and provide positive value, at least. Colas’ floor is way, way lower, and he’s much more likely to be down near it.

But you can have your cake and eat it too in this case. You give $3m to whichever one of like, Jake Marisnick or Guillermo Heredia or Kevin Pillar or Aledmys Diaz or whatever is still available, and give Colas every opportunity to play him out of a job. 

[NCsoxfan]

Hahn better get creative and hit on some buy low candidates. No way we’re going to turn the ship around paying market value for recent performance. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

12 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Like it or not, I don't see any way that the White Sox can come up with a "substantial hedge" for this guy, or for 2b for that matter.

Right now, they have 1 outfielder on their roster. Any other version of this - Sheets or Eloy in the OF - is worse than counting on Colas as it's almost certain to fail and puts both the pitching and guys playing around them in jeopardy. The only other options are either not big league quality (Payton), utility guys (Leury, Romy), or would only be in the big leagues if we were insistent on playing service time games with Colas and have even bigger issues (Cespedes, Rutherford, Adolfo, not even sure if any of them were released).

They clearly have some money left to spend, but they're already at nearly $170 million, more if you count the buyout for Pollock as part of 2023. Just bringing in 1 outfielder is probably going to cost $10 million - Kepler would have cost nearly that, Benintendi would certainly cost more than that on a multi year deal. In reality, just to cover LF and a backup CF you'd probably want to spend nearly $20 million if you did that through free agency, and that's probably more than the White Sox have in their budget.

There's just no resources for a substantial hedge here or at 2b. If they try to come up with one, then that leaves their other holes even worse - they'd have to come up with resources by dumping a Hendriks to do so. 

They might have something creative they can pull off in a trade, but they have so little to trade it's hard to see that being smart either. Are they going to trade for 3 outfielders? 

The only real way to make this work is to plug one corner OF hole as well as they can, whether through trades or free agency with what they have left, figure out who can be a backup OF that could legitimately play 80 games (no this shouldn't be Leury), and hope for the best in the other OF spot with Colas.

If this is an untenable situation, then the White Sox are in an untenable spot. The only other real solution would be to start selling off significant numbers of players and waiving the white flag. Unless they're going to substantially expand payroll next year beyond the $190 million spent in 2022, Colas is basically one of the main OFs for the full season and more than likely Sosa and Romy are going to be major contributors at 2b. 

Your argument was precisely the reason why I was suggesting guys who were better than Cespedes from the beginning. Viable 4th OF and better depth pieces than Payton. Of course they chose Payton rather than 20 something guys with upside. But there's still time but the guys I liked are already gone, except Outman and he's a trade piece.

[Bob Sacamano]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Your argument was precisely the reason why I was suggesting guys who were better than Cespedes from the beginning. Viable 4th OF and better depth pieces than Payton. Of course they chose Payton rather than 20 something guys with upside. But there's still time but the guys I liked are already gone, except Outman and he's a trade piece.

There’s other factors that go into this. You think a guy who is in his mid/upper-20s with not a lot of MLB experience is going to sign somewhere to compete to be a bench player or sign with a rebuilding team that can play him every day?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

11 minutes ago, NCsoxfan said:

Hahn better get creative and hit on some buy low candidates. No way we’re going to turn the ship around paying market value for recent performance. 

Your guy Jason Martin is still out there. Kind of a small guy but LH has power. No success in his MLB trials in the past. Has the speed to play CF but supposedly not a good fielder so basically a corner guy mostly LF. 3 years younger version of Payton.

I've seen most reports that list him at 5'9" and one at 5'11"

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

13 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

There’s other factors that go into this. You think a guy who is in his mid/upper-20s with not a lot of MLB experience is going to sign somewhere to compete to be a bench player or sign with a rebuilding team that can play him every day?

Of course there are other factors but there are also factors that would've been simple to get them too. AFter DFA you can trade for a guy if you want him.  Wouldn't take hardly anything. After that 7 days it's free agency.

Not getting the best depth possible and treating the Sox like they do any other year is just a pitiful sign that winning isn't a priority.

Now it's JR saying I've spent enough. Trouble is he let the crazy old man into the clubhouse and let him do as he saw fit and ruined a lot. Plus Hahn did his bit to set them back too.

[hi8is]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Of course there are other factors but there are also factors that would've been simple to get them too. AFter DFA you can trade for a guy if you want him.  Wouldn't take hardly anything. After that 7 days it's free agency.

Not getting the best depth possible and treating the Sox like they do any other year is just a pitiful sign that winning isn't a priority.

Now it's JR saying I've spent enough. Trouble is he let the crazy old man into the clubhouse and let him do as he saw fit and ruined a lot. Plus Hahn did his bit to set them back too.

Go back to sleep brother.

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Of course there are other factors but there are also factors that would've been simple to get them too. AFter DFA you can trade for a guy if you want him.  Wouldn't take hardly anything. After that 7 days it's free agency.

Not getting the best depth possible and treating the Sox like they do any other year is just a pitiful sign that winning isn't a priority.

Now it's JR saying I've spent enough. Trouble is he let the crazy old man into the clubhouse and let him do as he saw fit and ruined a lot. Plus Hahn did his bit to set them back too.

The guy was cut from the Diamondbacks 40-man roster. Not a real loss.

Edit: I guess 27 other teams are dumb for not claiming or trading for him.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Bob Sacamano

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Go back to sleep brother.

LOL hey It's pitiful that I'm fighting for DFA guys I know. But that's how dire the situation is. We're going to get some older retreads (Payton) and waste money on garbage like the Sox always do and basically everyone is giving that their seal of approval.

Give me 6 years and upside every time. That's how teams find guys like Muncy, JD Martinez and Chris Taylor and many others.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

10 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

The guy was cut from the Diamondbacks 40-man roster. Not a real loss.

Edit: I guess 27 other teams are dumb for not claiming or trading for him.

Plenty of guys have had successful careers after being cut . The Dbacks are loaded with good young OFers. Snagging one that was cut loose isn't a bad idea.

But hey keep hoping  JR has a heart and signs yet another veteran retread for $3M-$15M while the Sox keep ignoring their woeful farm system. Signing those types is what put the Sox in the position they are in now after they reached their peak in the 1st half of 2021.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Plenty of guys have had successful careers after being cut . The Dbacks are loaded with good young OFers. Snagging one that was cut loose isn't a bad idea.

But hey keep hoping  JR has a heart and signs yet another veteran retread for $3M-$15M while the Sox keep ignoring their woeful farm system. Signing those types is what put the Sox in the position they are in now after they reached their peak in the 1st half of 2021.

 

Was Stone Garrett out of options? It so, that doesn’t “help the farm system.”

[hi8is]

12 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

LOL hey It's pitiful that I'm fighting for DFA guys I know. But that's how dire the situation is. We're going to get some older retreads (Payton) and waste money on garbage like the Sox always do and basically everyone is giving that their seal of approval.

Give me 6 years and upside every time. That's how teams find guys like Muncy, JD Martinez and Chris Taylor and many others.

Oh I totally agree with ya man… more so was just saying it’s too early to be awake.

Same in my case… woke up sans alarm at 5:21 and had gone to sleep around 1:30.

What the f***.

[bmags]

13 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

I'm not totally sure I agree. Or, maybe I do, but I think there will be some $1 - 6M veterans available in February to get to be the hedge. Remember, the Sox need to add more than one OF if you think Eloy should spend a lot of time at DH and Sheets should spend a lot of time not on the 25-man roster. The second guy they add need not be all that good, just above replacement level.

I can buy that. I think it has been illustrative that Brian Goodwin was able to outperform Adam Eaton, and to an extent the same value churn with billy Hamilton to Goodwin. The jump in price does not seem justified to me. One will breakout but I doubt the Sox choose the right one.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

30 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Was Stone Garrett out of options? It so, that doesn’t “help the farm system.”

from MLBtraderumors:

Signing Garrett to a major league contract doesn’t mean the Nationals are obligated to carry him on the MLB roster. He still has a full slate of minor league option years, so the Nats can keep him in Triple-A Rochester for the foreseeable future as upper level depth. Rather, the MLB deal and immediate 40-man spot presumably served to differentiate the Nats from other teams that were willing to offer him a minor league deal with an invitation to big league Spring Training. Garrett is still nowhere near even the one-year service threshold, so he’d be controllable through at least the 2028 season if he establishes a lasting role in D.C.

Edit: A minor league contract is cheaper than a MLB contract that the Nats signed him too. I don't think Garrett is some amazing overlooked player. He's a corner OF type with the speed to play CF but not the instincts as far as I know.

I just don't want to see Sheets, Vaughn Leury ,Payton, Cespedes or Eloy play OF for 1 damn inning. I mean when the Pirates have a better OF than a team that's supposed to be a contender, it's just sad.

It's also sad that the Sox are just continuing to do Sox type things. We have all off season to see what will happen but my opinion is you are all going to be disappointed because that's what JR and Hahn do.

And if anyone gets excited at the prospect of getting Profar because he can play an equally bad 2nd base and OF for a couple years @$10M/yr., good luck with that.

Edited November 30, 2022 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside