Your 2023 Off-Season Plan

[Jack Parkman]

Madrigal sucks. 

[ron883]

54 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

I got the sense that the team was definitely ok when he left and they weren't too excited about his "Mr. 3000" cockiness. I think it's best to move on from some personalities like that and get a refresh in the clubhouse

 

Didn't him being a big bible thumper also rub people the wrong way?

 

[TheFutureIsNear]

Trade Hendriks, Jose Rodriguez and Jared Kelly for Danny Jansen- Blue Jays trade 1 of their C’s to solidify their bullpen with a proven closer and add prospects to gear up for a mid-season trade to put them over the top. Obviously Jansen fits perfectly for the Sox and  the trade saves 10mil

 

Trade Grandal for Tommy LaStella- Giants have Joey Bart but no clear backup C or clear cut DH option. LaStella was a bust for them and has no path for playing time after recent signings. Grandal acts as a mentor for Bart and gets semi-regular AB’s at C/DH/1B. Sox save 7 mil and get a LH 2B platoon/utility guy while unloading Grandal after the Jansen trade

 

Trade Burger for a young, cost controlled RP with a live arm and options- I think it will be hard for Burger to ever see playing time here as RH 1B/DH and more options in the pen will help after trading Hendriks.

 

With saved 17mil from trades- Sign Michael Fulmer and Wil Myers. Fulmer fills a bullpen gap as a solid MRP and Myers is RH backup to both corner OF spots (possible platoon with Colas) to ensure that Eloy doesn’t see the field and also backups up 1B and DH. 

 

 

TA

Benintendi

Robert

Eloy

Colas

Jansen

Vaughn

Yoan

Sosa/LaStella

Bench- Myers, Luery, Seby

 

SP-Cease, Lynn, Gio, Kopech, Clevinger

CL- Lopez

Setup- Graveman/Bummer

MRP- Fulmer, Kelly, Diekman, Lambert/Burger Trade

Long- Avila

[SoxBlanco]

6 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Trade Hendriks, Jose Rodriguez and Jared Kelly for Danny Jansen

Wait, if we want to trade Liam for Jansen, we actually have to give up two prospects to make it happen?  What??

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

5 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Wait, if we want to trade Liam for Jansen, we actually have to give up two prospects to make it happen?  What??

Absolutely not

[MiddleCoastBias]

47 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Didn't him being a big bible thumper also rub people the wrong way?

 

I did not know that. Guess Dayton Moore is probably on the phone to bring him to KC as we speak.

[PolishPrince34]

That might be the worst trade proposal I’ve seen in awhile! Lol

[flavum]

1 minute ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

I did not know that. Guess Dayton Moore is probably on the phone to bring him to KC as we speak.

Moore works for the Rangers now

[MiddleCoastBias]

1 minute ago, flavum said:

Moore works for the Rangers now

Man, shows how much I know. When did that happen?

[maxjusttyped]

I hope Toronto trades Jansen elsewhere ASAP because these rumors of him for Liam are not it.

[TheFutureIsNear]

18 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Wait, if we want to trade Liam for Jansen, we actually have to give up two prospects to make it happen?  What??

2 years of extreme surplus value of a cheap all-star level catcher for 1 year of Liam seems fair to you? I could (hopefully) be wrong, but that doesn’t seem right to me. Not like Kelly is much of a prospect anyway…

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

2 years of extreme surplus value of a cheap all-star level catcher for 1 year of Liam seems fair to you? I could (hopefully) be wrong, but that doesn’t seem right to me. Not like Kelly is much of a prospect anyway…

If Liam gets traded his 2024 option becomes guaranteed. So whoever gets Hendriks gets him at 2/29M

[TheFutureIsNear]

11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If Liam gets traded his 2024 option becomes guaranteed. So whoever gets Hendriks gets him at 2/29M

Ok didn’t realize that. But unless I am missing something we are still talking about a trade for a C that will give us 4 WAR (conservatively) per season for a total of 8/9 mil over 2 years for a closer that will give you 2 WAR per year for 29 mil over 2 years…and the closer also has a questionable elbow. I don’t see the fair value 1 for 1 personally, but sure, I’d absolutely do the deal.

Edited December 18, 2022 by TheFutureIsNear

[hi8is]

5 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

we are still talking about a trade for a C that will give us 4 WAR (conservatively) per season

Huh?

[maxjusttyped]

Just now, TheFutureIsNear said:

Ok didn’t realize that. But unless I am missing something we are still talking about a trade for a C that will give us 4 WAR (conservatively) per season for a total of 8/9 mil over 2 years for a closer that will give you 2 WAR per year for 29 mil over 2 years…and the closer also has a questionable elbow. I don’t see the fair value 1 for 1 personally, but sure I’d absolutely do the deal.

Edwin Diaz is the most comparable reliever in free agency this year to Liam and he just signed for 5/102 with multiple opt outs in the deal. Wilson Contreras is a much more proven player than Jansen and he signed for less money than Diaz. Teams place a premium on elite relievers that is illogical if you value them on a $/WAR basis, but we see time & time again it's how the market operates.

I think the Sox would be able to do better than Jansen if he gets traded, even if you wouldn't think so just going off strict WAR projections.

[TheFutureIsNear]

8 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Huh?

A stud defensive catcher than can hit 20+ HR’s doesn’t project to 4 WAR over a 500 AB season? And I’m referencing Fangraphs WAR. I think Travis d’Araund is a great comp who was good for 3.9 WAR in 426 AB’s and hit .268/.319/.472 with 18 HR’s

[fathom]

1 minute ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

A stud defensive catcher than can hit 20+ HR’s doesn’t project to 4 WAR over a 500 AB season? And I’m referencing Fangraphs WAR. I think Travis d’Araund is a great comp who was good for 3.9 WAR in 426 AB’s and hit .268/.319/.472 with 18 HR’s

I think your proposed trade is giving up too much, but I also feel this site drastically undervalues Jansen.

Edited December 18, 2022 by fathom

[maxjusttyped]

3 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

A stud defensive catcher than can hit 20+ HR’s doesn’t project to 4 WAR over a 500 AB season? And I’m referencing Fangraphs WAR. I think Travis d’Araund is a great comp who was good for 3.9 WAR in 426 AB’s and hit .268/.319/.472 with 18 HR’s

Steamer projects Jansen to be worth 2.6 WAR next year. That would be his career high and is a totally reasonable 50th percent tile projection.

Edited December 18, 2022 by maxjusttyped

[TheFutureIsNear]

14 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

Edwin Diaz is the most comparable reliever in free agency this year to Liam and he just signed for 5/102 with multiple opt outs in the deal. Wilson Contreras is a much more proven player than Jansen and he signed for less money than Diaz. Teams place a premium on elite relievers that is illogical if you value them on a $/WAR basis, but we see time & time again it's how the market operates.

I think the Sox would be able to do better than Jansen if he gets traded, even if you wouldn't think so just going off strict WAR projections.

I don’t think Liam is comparable to what Díaz did last year. If you want to argue that Díaz may be more volatile, sure, but if Díaz is at his best again it’s not all that close between him and Liam. 

[maxjusttyped]

4 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

I don’t think Liam is comparable to what Díaz did last year. If you want to argue that Díaz may be more volatile, sure, but if Díaz is at his best again it’s not all that close between him and Liam. 

Liam .2 WAR behind Diaz since the start of 2020. Diaz was better last year, Liam was better the 2 years prior. I think there's a credible argument they are the 2 best relievers in baseball.

Edited December 18, 2022 by maxjusttyped
adding the graphic

[SoxBlanco]

50 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

2 years of extreme surplus value of a cheap all-star level catcher for 1 year of Liam seems fair to you? I could (hopefully) be wrong, but that doesn’t seem right to me. Not like Kelly is much of a prospect anyway…

Alright, be honest…

Before posting the Hendriks/Jansen trade idea here, you went to baseballtradevalues.com and you were surprised that the gap was so big. Then you threw in Jose Rodriguez and Jared Kelley to close the gap. 

[TheFutureIsNear]

Just now, SoxBlanco said:

Alright, be honest…

Before posting the Hendriks/Jansen trade idea here, you went to baseballtradevalues.com and you were surprised that the gap was so big. Then you threw in Jose Rodriguez and Jared Kelley to close the gap. 

Nope. I’m aware that site sucks. I already explained my stance. Cheap catcher with a lot of surplus value for a soon to be 34 year old closer with a sketchy elbow making 29 mil over the next 2 years. I’m waiting for a convincing counter argument. 
 

It also probably comes down to how you value the prospects. I don’t care where they rank in our system because we have no one, Popeye and Kelly aren’t valuable pieces to give up in my option.

 

 

[Tnetennba]

I want a 2B that can actually field his position, and not be a complete idiot on the base paths for that matter.  Madrigal can waste time in the Cubs system for  all I care. 

[TheFutureIsNear]

22 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

Liam .2 WAR behind Diaz since the start of 2020. Diaz was better last year, Liam was better the 2 years prior. I think there's a credible argument they are the 2 best relievers in baseball.

I acknowledged the volatility of Díaz and when you include his down 2021 year it’s going to skew things. The Mets clearly paid for the ‘18, ‘20, and ‘22 version of Díaz. And if he continues that I think there’s a fairly large gap between him and Liam. I also don’t know if you can use the Mets and their spending as a fair evaluation…they clearly committed to overspending on Díaz as soon they started playing those trumpets. Was any other team going to pay Díaz 100M?

 

And the part we can agree to disagree on is projecting Liam over the next 2 years. I personally don’t feel all that confident in a 34 year old with a bad elbow going forward, but I could easily be proven wrong there 

[maxjusttyped]

1 minute ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

I acknowledged the volatility of Díaz and when you include his down 2021 year it’s going to skew things. The Mets clearly paid for the ‘18, ‘20, and ‘22 version of Díaz. And if he continues that I think there’s a fairly large gap between him and Liam. I also don’t know if you can use the Mets and their spending as a fair evaluation…they clearly committed to overspending on Díaz as soon they started playing those trumpets. Was any other team going to pay Díaz 100M?

 

And the part we can agree to disagree on is projecting Liam over the next 2 years. I personally don’t feel all that confident in a 34 year old with a bad elbow going forward, but I could easily be proven wrong there 

If I included 2019, it would have looked significantly worse for Diaz. ? I wasn't trying to cherry pick stats, rather show that if you compare the 2 over a reasonable number of years they've essentially produced the same amount of value. Steamer projects them to be the 1st and 3rd best reliever in baseball next season. Liam's "down" year in 22 looks very similar to Diaz's 2021 except with much better results. Liam had the 2nd highest fastball velo of his career (I'm sure the .1 decline will scare teams off) and the highest slider velo of his career. There was no indication at all the injury affected his performance and he was dominant after coming off the IL.

I understand your point about the Mets potentially being irrational spenders, but that's just the market if you want to sign quality relief pitching. Kenley Jansen just signed for a 16M AAV. Raisel Iglesias 14.5M last off-season. Plenty of 2nd/3rd tier relievers are signing for ~9M AAV and above for 3+ years. A 20M AAV seems reasonable for relievers who are clearly a tier or 2 better than those guys.