CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 minute ago, fathom said: Underwhelming You were expecting DeGrom ? This whole off season will be underwhelming names but it would be nice to see some names with upside and years attached to their names Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Again, name for me a pitcher in the last several years who has come back from TJS and been fully back to themselves in under 18 months. Hey I finally found one! Rafael Montero, had TJS in March of 2018, returned in July of 2019 and was moderately effective for 20 innings after only 16 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: That's all I got . A .500 team doesn't need Hendriks. Time to set him free.If your infrastructure is as good as they think it is, they will come back strong this year. And if not ,well Fire Hahn ,because on his watch they can't identify nor develop talent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 hours ago, wegner said: And that is the real problem. Hahn completely misjudged KImbrel's value. It was just monumentally stupid to pick up that option. Yep! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 25 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: You were expecting DeGrom ? This whole off season will be underwhelming names but it would be nice to see some names with upside and years attached to their names Like you said, rather see someone with upside like Clevinger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnetennba Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 34 minutes ago, fathom said: Underwhelming Are you of all people expecting to be overwhelmed in a positive way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 33 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Again, name for me a pitcher in the last several years who has come back from TJS and been fully back to themselves in under 18 months. Did you forget that Justin Verlander just won the ALCY coming off TJS? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnetennba Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I would trade Hendriks for “a haul” in an instant, but we should probably temper expectations on this front. His funky contract probably hurts any potential return. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnetennba Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Did you forget that Justin Verlander just won the ALCY coming off TJS? How much of a unicorn is Verlander though? How many pitchers in their late 30s even come back from TJS, let alone coming back and winning a Cy Young? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Did you forget that Justin Verlander just won the ALCY coming off TJS? Justin Verlander's Tommy John Surgery was on September 30, 2020. Justin Verlander's first competitive innings thrown after that surgery happened in April, 2022. That is a full 18 months of recovery time. Crochet's was the first week of April, 2022. Find me a single pitcher who came back and threw more than 10 effective innings in fewer than 16 months. Go back as far as you need to, I've gone back about 5 years. I don't dispute that he can come back strong. I dispute that he is likely to come back strong this year and be a major part of this team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Just now, Tnetennba said: How much of a unicorn is Verlander though? How many pitchers in their late 30s even come back from TJS, let alone coming back and winning a Cy Young? He asked me to name him a pitcher. I did. I know Verlander is a physical freak but he was framing it as an impossibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: Justin Verlander's Tommy John Surgery was on September 30, 2020. Justin Verlander's first innings thrown after that surgery happened in April, 2022. That is a full 18 months of recovery time. Crochet's was the first week of April, 2022. Find me a single pitcher who came back and threw more than 10 effective innings in fewer than 16 months. Go back as far as you need to, I've gone back about 5 years. I thought he had his surgery in March of 2021 so I stand corrected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: I thought he had his surgery in March of 2021 so I stand corrected. https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2024369 Made 1 start in 2020, left with elbow pain. Out a full 18 months. I do think the White Sox will try to be aggressive with Crochet, but "back in early June" would still be extremely aggressive with him, and I haven't found a pitcher in recent years who has been able to do that successfully without winding back up on the IL. The only guy I could find recently who has thrown competitive pitches after 14 months is Glasnow, and he gave everything he had in a playoff outing this year. He was effective in that second outing, but it was 1 3-innign outing at the end of the year, a 5 day layoff, and 1 3.2-inning outing before the Rays' season ended. Literally everyone else I'm finding either didn't come back until about month 16, or even took longer than that. For Crochet, that would be comparable to appearing in early August. That's more common, Montero did it without getting hurt, Sale did it and then got hurt. Rodon came back in September at about month 16 and then was terrible for a couple outings. Many of the guys who had surgeries in Spring Training tried to come back in the 2nd half of the following year and then wound up pitching like 3 innings before going back on the IL. I'm actually rather surprised how uncommon it is to have a successful comeback in under 18 months, I didn't know that at all until I looked. Maybe if I go back more than 5 years, when guys weren't pushing their fastballs and offspeed pitches to the same extent they are today, the results will be different, but I don't think you want "Crochet is back but he shouldn't throw more than 95 this season and he should go light on the slider." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 26 minutes ago, Tnetennba said: Are you of all people expecting to be overwhelmed in a positive way? Oh it’s going to be a total disaster 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2024369 Made 1 start in 2020, left with elbow pain. Out a full 18 months. I do think the White Sox will try to be aggressive with Crochet, but "back in early June" would still be extremely aggressive with him, and I haven't found a pitcher in recent years who has been able to do that successfully without winding back up on the IL. The only guy I could find recently who has thrown competitive pitches after 14 months is Glasnow, and he gave everything he had in a playoff outing this year. He was effective in that second outing, but it was 1 3-innign outing at the end of the year, a 5 day layoff, and 1 3.2-inning outing before the Rays' season ended. Literally everyone else I'm finding either didn't come back until about month 16, or even took longer than that. For Crochet, that would be comparable to appearing in early August. That's more common, Montero did it without getting hurt, Sale did it and then got hurt. Rodon came back in September at about month 16 and then was terrible for a couple outings. Many of the guys who had surgeries in Spring Training tried to come back in the 2nd half of the following year and then wound up pitching like 3 innings before going back on the IL. I'm actually rather surprised how uncommon it is to have a successful comeback in under 18 months, I didn't know that at all until I looked. Maybe if I go back more than 5 years, when guys weren't pushing their fastballs and offspeed pitches to the same extent they are today, the results will be different, but I don't think you want "Crochet is back but he shouldn't throw more than 95 this season and he should go light on the slider." I thought relievers could pull it off in 14 months. Are you sure you're not only looking at starters? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: I thought relievers could pull it off in 14 months. Are you sure you're not only looking at starters? I used the Wikipedia list of Tommy John Surgeries. Some people are filtered out because if they had the surgery after June 1, they basically all miss the entire next season. But that also is telling us something, because a 14 month recovery would still let those people come back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I might be of the minority here but I am 100% ok letting Abreu walk, trading Vaughn and rolling with a Sheets/Burger 1B platoon because of the payroll constraints. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: I used the Wikipedia list of Tommy John Surgeries. Some people are filtered out because if they had the surgery after June 1, they basically all miss the entire next season. But that also is telling us something, because a 14 month recovery would still let those people come back. You've got the data, and I know that you know your s%*#, so I'll take your word for it. 18 months puts Crochet back in MLB in August then. Man, he's going to miss most of this season as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Let’s just summon @ptatc. He knows what’s up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said: Let’s just summon @ptatc. He knows what’s up. I don't think you can do better than Balta's research. Dates when you have the surgery and when you're able to pitch again are all pretty much out there in black and white. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: You've got the data, and I know that you know your s%*#, so I'll take your word for it. 18 months puts Crochet back in MLB in August then. Man, he's going to miss most of this season as well. I'm not going to rule out that there is someone who isn't in the list of surgeries here who came back more quickly and was effective, (weirdly, Crochet and Rodon are not there if anyone out there likes editing Wikipedia articles), but it definitely isn't the majority of pitchers, even the majority of relievers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_baseball_players_who_underwent_Tommy_John_surgery If you can find one who came back more quickly and was effective in recent years, go for it. I can't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegner Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 24 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: I might be of the minority here but I am 100% ok letting Abreu walk, trading Vaughn and rolling with a Sheets/Burger 1B platoon because of the payroll constraints. Selling low on Vaughn seems like a bad idea. Let's give him a full year out of the OF. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, wegner said: Selling low on Vaughn seems like a bad idea. Let's give him a full year out of the OF. Everyone knows he's playing out of position. Hahn isn't that dumb and neither is everyone else. He should be valued as a 1B/DH. I'm sure teams have some algorithm where then can assign slightly below average 1B defense and spit out a WAR number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegner Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 42 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Everyone knows he's playing out of position. Hahn isn't that dumb and neither is everyone else. He should be valued as a 1B/DH. I'm sure teams have some algorithm where then can assign slightly below average 1B defense and spit out a WAR number. Well I don't know what algorithms Hahn uses but I shudder at the thought of the return we'd get for AV......hard pass. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maloney.adam Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 (edited) Sox offseason plan: acquire nobody. Start the season with one outfielder. ? Edited November 18, 2022 by maloney.adam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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