Your 2023 Off-Season Plan

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

You move along. How often do you have to be told that defensive stats are not stats that can do used in  short sample sizes One year of stats is never enough. Your ignorance is astounding. Your baseball knowledge terrible.

I think there was a general agreement that Vaughn wasn’t so bad in 2021 that you would say he couldn’t be tried there in 2022, but I do think you can probably find me saying “but you have to have a backup plan” like I usually say, and clearly they didn’t. By May, it was clear they needed a backup plan as Vaughn was the worst fielding player in baseball, and they had no other options.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

20 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I think there was a general agreement that Vaughn wasn’t so bad in 2021 that you would say he couldn’t be tried there in 2022, but I do think you can probably find me saying “but you have to have a backup plan” like I usually say, and clearly they didn’t. By May, it was clear they needed a backup plan as Vaughn was the worst fielding player in baseball, and they had no other options.

There was general agreement here and yes among the Sox management but we see how that turned out. The real Vaughn as a fielder showed up which was what I was saying would happen all along. He never had the speed, experience or athleticism required to play a competent OF. He was only competent that year because he had a high number of chances  that a lot of OF also wouldn't have gotten to but once the ball started finding him more his total lack of range and speed showed it's true colors. Sometimes you have to see beyond the numbers in a limited sample size of defensive chances.

No one was ever hesitant to say what terrible fielders , Sheets or Burger are because they weren't the golden boys of hype like Vaughn was and continues to be with some. Now after a terrible year of defense and faltering at the end of the season again people are finally figuring out what was in front of their noses the whole time.

I'm not anti- Vaughn by any stretch . I love that he became a much better hitter and I advocated the departure of our best , most consistent player to see how Vaughn does playing 1st base. But he had better start getting close to 30 or 35 HR's a year as an undersized 1st basement or he'll never be a "great hitter" because the great hitter hype is still rolling.

 

[Jack Parkman]

Do you guys think there is anything fair about Hendriks for Lux straight up? 

I tend to think that Lux has more value but I'm not entirely sure. 

[fathom]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Do you guys think there is anything fair about Hendriks for Lux straight up? 

I tend to think that Lux has more value but I'm not entirely sure. 

Dodgers wouldn’t do that 

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Dodgers wouldn’t do that 

I didn't think so, thanks. 

I was wondering if I was undervaluing Hendriks. 

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I didn't think so, thanks. 

I was wondering if I was undervaluing Hendriks. 

The trade value site thinks that Hendriks and Giolito for Lux is still a small underpay for the White Sox.

You have to go to things about how closers somehow have extra value and the Dodgers GM will believe that  because they’re so old school to make that happen.

[Jack Parkman]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The trade value site thinks that Hendriks and Giolito for Lux is still a small underpay for the White Sox.

You have to go to things about how closers somehow have extra value and the Dodgers GM will believe that  because they’re so old school to make that happen.

That's actually not bad if the Sox want to shed payroll

 

[Balta1701]

22 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That's actually not bad if the Sox want to shed payroll

 

Shedding payroll for the White Sox is fairly straightforward. Hendriks, Giolito, Anderson all can be moved to do that.

Shedding payroll while remaining competitive is nearly impossible. For a team to do that, they need to have a young guy ready to step in. Like Tucker when the Astros let Springer walk, or Hunter Brown if they let Verlander walk, or Peña when they let Correa walk.

The White Sox don’t have anyone who replaces any of those guys ready to go, so moving any of them makes the team worse. 

[Jack Parkman]

18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Shedding payroll for the White Sox is fairly straightforward. Hendriks, Giolito, Anderson all can be moved to do that.

Shedding payroll while remaining competitive is nearly impossible. For a team to do that, they need to have a young guy ready to step in. Like Tucker when the Astros let Springer walk, or Hunter Brown if they let Verlander walk, or Peña when they let Correa walk.

The White Sox don’t have anyone who replaces any of those guys ready to go, so moving any of them makes the team worse. 

I think in order to stay relatively competitive they have to trade Hendriks to fill holes elsewhere. They have to hope that Graveman can do the job. Trading Giolito and then replacing him is a lateral move in dollars. 

Anderson is enough of a bargain that moving him makes no sense. 

Edited November 19, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Do you guys think there is anything fair about Hendriks for Lux straight up? 

I tend to think that Lux has more value but I'm not entirely sure. 

I'd trade Hendriks  for Outman. No idea if that's fair or even if the Dodgers will consider trading Outman.

[southsider2k5]

 

[southsider2k5]

 

[Tnetennba]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

Are they projecting Eloy as LF?  Do they not know his injury propensity?

[Tnetennba]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

 

I’m surprised the Sox only made this list once ?. 

[Colome's Hat]

To be honest, given the high money contract some of these relievers are signing, they may be able to move Gravesman.  Which would be a plus and free up some money.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think in order to stay relatively competitive they have to trade Hendriks to fill holes elsewhere. They have to hope that Graveman can do the job. Trading Giolito and then replacing him is a lateral move in dollars. 

Anderson is enough of a bargain that moving him makes no sense. 

They can definitely replace 1 WAR Giolito with another 1-2 win pitcher for Giolitos money. Problem is, that doesn’t make an 81 win team that lost 2 of its 3 biggest contributors any better. And they can definitely use a guy like Graveman or Lopez in the closers role, but for a team that already has a shallow bullpen and would have been worse last year if not for an elite performance in 1 run games, same problem. These are fine ways to come back and win 78 games next year.

[Jack Parkman]

31 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

They can definitely replace 1 WAR Giolito with another 1-2 win pitcher for Giolitos money. Problem is, that doesn’t make an 81 win team that lost 2 of its 3 biggest contributors any better. And they can definitely use a guy like Graveman or Lopez in the closers role, but for a team that already has a shallow bullpen and would have been worse last year if not for an elite performance in 1 run games, same problem. These are fine ways to come back and win 78 games next year.

At a $180M budget, I don't see how they avoid being a ~77-82 win team in 2023. 

Really, as has been said before, if the budget really is $180M they should be trading anyone with a high value for prospects. Players like Anderson, Hendriks and Cease. (Idk who else is worth trading tbh) 

Then fill the holes created with cheap filler players and hope they have good years and you can continue tearing down at the deadline. 

Edited November 20, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

At a $180M budget, I don't see how they avoid that. 

Really, as has been said before, if the budget really is $180M they should be trading anyone with a high value for prospects. Players like Anderson, Hendriks and Cease. (Idk who else is worth trading tbh) 

Then fill the holes created with cheap filler players and hope they have good years and you can continue tearing down at the deadline. 

There’s no reason to spend $180 million if you’re doing that.

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There’s no reason to spend $180 million if you’re doing that.

I agree. They still need someone to man SS and fill 2-3 rotation spots depending on what they do with Giolito. I guess you could see what Davis Martin has over a full season. 

 

Basically what I was saying is that if their payroll ceiling is $180M, then they're basically forced into a rebuild and spending less than that because there's no way to compete with the current commitments and roughly $10M in payroll space. 

Edited November 20, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

Thinking through this a bit, here is what I’d do this off-season assuming we have $20M to work with:

Trades:

• CL Liam Hendriks & IF Lenyn Sosa to LAD for 2B Gavin Lux & RHP Andre Jackson
• 3B Jake Burger to the Brewers for LHP Robert Gasser

Free Agents:

• OF Michael Conforto - 1/$15M
• SP Mike Clevinger - 1/$12M
• OF Adam Duvall - 1/$6M

Roster:

1. Anderson, SS
2. Lux, 2B*
3. Vaughn, 1B
4. Jimenez, DH
5. Conforto, LF*
6. Robert, CF
7. Moncada, 3B#
8. Grandal, C#
9. Colas, RF*

• IF: Gonzalez
• OF: Duvall
• UT: Garcia#
• BC: Zavala

1. Cease
2. Lynn
3. Kopech
4. Giolito
5. Clevinger

• CL: Graveman
• SU: Bummer*
• SU: Lopez
• MR: Kelly
• MR: Lambert
• MR: Diekman*
• MR: Ruiz
• LR: Davis/Jackson/Gasser*

Summary:

The offense has a chance to be significantly better with the addition of two LH bats on top of Colas.  Conforto was one of the best hitters against RHP in the majors prior to the 2021 season and Lux put up a 118 wRC+ against righties last year.  The bench is versatile and should be able to help against tough LHP.  The defense should actually be pretty good outside of catcher with massive improvements in the OF and a quality 2B added to replace Big Energy.

For the rotation, I go for ceiling with Clevinger vs. a similarly priced floor option like Quintana.  He is a guy that the organization previously wanted and I’d love to see what Katz can do with him as the rust from TJS wears off.  Beyond just the #5 spot, adding some depth in AAA is also critical.  As such, I also acquire a prospect whose stock is down in Jackson and then use Burger to get a young lefty in Gasser who can compete with Davis for the #6 spot and/or swing role.

The bullpen is a wildcard.  I hate giving up Liam, but I don’t see another way to bring back talent and free up salary space.  The hope is that Graveman or Lopez can do a halfway decent of replacing him at closer.  The rest of the pen definitely makes me a bit nervous, although Crochet will be at some point and hopefully provide an impact arm.  This a spot we’ll likely need reinforcements by the deadline if still competitive, but not worth over-investing now.

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Thinking through this a bit, here is what I’d do this off-season assuming we have $20M to work with:

Trades:

• CL Liam Hendriks & IF Lenyn Sosa to LAD for 2B Gavin Lux & RHP Andre Jackson
• 3B Jake Burger to the Brewers for LHP Robert Gasser

Free Agents:

• OF Michael Conforto - 1/$15M
• SP Mike Clevinger - 1/$12M
• OF Adam Duvall - 1/$6M

Roster:

1. Anderson, SS
2. Lux, 2B*
3. Vaughn, 1B
4. Jimenez, DH
5. Conforto, LF*
6. Robert, CF
7. Moncada, 3B#
8. Grandal, C#
9. Colas, RF*

• IF: Gonzalez
• OF: Duvall
• UT: Garcia#
• BC: Zavala

1. Cease
2. Lynn
3. Kopech
4. Giolito
5. Clevinger

• CL: Graveman
• SU: Bummer*
• SU: Lopez
• MR: Kelly
• MR: Lambert
• MR: Diekman*
• MR: Ruiz
• LR: Davis/Jackson/Gasser*

Summary:

The offense has a chance to be significantly better with the addition of two LH bats on top of Colas.  Conforto was one of the best hitters against RHP in the majors prior to the 2021 season and Lux put up a 118 wRC+ against righties last year.  The bench is versatile and should be able to help against tough LHP.  The defense should actually be pretty good outside of catcher with massive improvements in the OF and a quality 2B added to replace Big Energy.

For the rotation, I go for ceiling with Clevinger vs. a similarly priced floor option like Quintana.  He is a guy that the organization previously wanted and I’d love to see what Katz can do with him as the rust from TJS wears off.  Beyond just the #5 spot, adding some depth in AAA is also critical.  As such, I also acquire a prospect whose stock is down in Jackson and then use Burger to get a young lefty in Gasser who can compete with Davis for the #6 spot and/or swing role.

The bullpen is a wildcard.  I hate giving up Liam, but I don’t see another way to bring back talent and free up salary space.  The hope is that Graveman or Lopez can do a halfway decent of replacing him at closer.  The rest of the pen definitely makes me a bit nervous, although Crochet will be at some point and hopefully provide an impact arm.  This a spot we’ll likely need reinforcements by the deadline if still competitive, but not worth over-investing now.

I don't think you're getting Clevinger for $12M. More like 15-16M. 

All reports are that the FA market is very strong this winter. Sox could get priced out of even guys like Cueto, Quintana and Manaea. 

Edited November 20, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

The trade value site thinks that Hendriks and Giolito for Lux is still a small underpay for the White Sox.

You have to go to things about how closers somehow have extra value and the Dodgers GM will believe that  because they’re so old school to make that happen.

BBTV’s valuations are fun to mess around with but ultimately meaningless.  I don’t think the Dodgers would give up Lux for Hendricks straight up, but not because BBTV doesn’t feel it’s an even swap.

[Chicago White Sox]

22 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't think you're getting Clevinger for $12M. More like 15-16M. 

All reports are that the FA market is very strong this winter. Sox could get priced out of even guys like Cueto, Quintana and Manaea. 

I took the average of what MLBTR and Fangraphs’ crowdsourcing came up with ($9M) and added a 25% premium.  He wasn’t very good last year and has pitched over 126 innings once in his career.  I think 1/$12M might get him.

[Balta1701]

37 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

BBTV’s valuations are fun to mess around with but ultimately meaningless.  I don’t think the Dodgers would give up Lux for Hendricks straight up, but not because BBTV doesn’t feel it’s an even swap.

While they're meaningless, it's a lot easier to have an outside perspective on this than to just keep guessing. 

I for one don't think the Dodgers are giving up a big league contributor for Hendriks. They already have to replace one middle infielder, having to replace two so that they could get a closer? Without anyone who is going to replace them in their organization? Just doesn't seem likely.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

While they're meaningless, it's a lot easier to have an outside perspective on this than to just keep guessing. 

I for one don't think the Dodgers are giving up a big league contributor for Hendriks. They already have to replace one middle infielder, having to replace two so that they could get a closer? Without anyone who is going to replace them in their organization? Just doesn't seem likely.

Which is I why I included Sosa in my trade proposal with the Dodgers.