Your 2023 Off-Season Plan

[JoeCredeYes]

28 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

 

Very meh for me.  That is a horrendous A's trade and I don't really care for the Berti trade (non-believer here).

I've yet to see one of these off-season plans that does not look like a 3rd place team in the division.  I'm depressed for next season already. 

[maxjusttyped]

If anyone's looking to pile on a bit more misery, check out the early ZIPS projections for 2023

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/

Just as close to the last place Tigers as the 1st place Guardians, according to these projections ?

[chw42]

7 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

If anyone's looking to pile on a bit more misery, check out the early ZIPS projections for 2023

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/

Just as close to the last place Tigers as the 1st place Guardians, according to these projections ?

Wow that is depressing 

[Chicago White Sox]

15 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

If anyone's looking to pile on a bit more misery, check out the early ZIPS projections for 2023

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/

Just as close to the last place Tigers as the 1st place Guardians, according to these projections ?

Honestly, those don’t upset me too much.  We have a bunch of guys coming off unpredictably bad seasons and a couple major holes not filled.  More concerned that Hahn fill those holes with marginal talents and we end up a couple games over .500 and just short of the division.

[ChiSox59]

58 minutes ago, JoeCredeYes said:

I've yet to see one of these off-season plans that does not look like a 3rd place team in the division.  I'm depressed for next season already. 

The Twins were worse than the Sox last year and are losing Correa.  They are in much worse shape than the Sox as far as 2023 is concerned as we sit today. Of course, they have more $ to spend than we do.  

Whether you're a believer in the Guardians or not, that team isn't anything special or anything to be overly concerned about, and we know they won't be adding much via FA.

I think Sox as we currently sit are still the best team in this division, perhaps by a good distance if the key players stay healthy / get some bouncebacks.  I think adding Nimmo + a decent SP (Clevinger works; Heaney maybe) puts the Sox around the same payroll as last year, and makes them considerably better than they sit today. Of course, Nimmo feels like much more of pipedream now than it did a couple months ago with the bidding now apparently in the 6/$140M range, which we all know Sox aren't going to do. 

Edited November 23, 2022 by ChiSox59

[Balta1701]

11 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

The Twins were worse than the Sox last year and are losing Correa.  They are in much worse shape than the Sox as far as 2023 is concerned as we sit today. Of course, they have more $ to spend than we do.  

Whether you're a believer in the Guardians or not, that team isn't anything special or anything to be overly concerned about, and we know they won't be adding much via FA.

I think Sox as we currently sit are still the best team in this division, perhaps by a good distance if the key players stay healthy / get some bouncebacks.  I think adding Nimmo + a decent SP (Clevinger works; Heaney maybe) puts the Sox around the same payroll as last year, and makes them considerably better than they sit today. Of course, Nimmo feels like much more of pipedream now than it did a couple months ago with the bidding now apparently in the 6/$140M range, which we all know Sox aren't going to do. 

All the other points that I've been making in reply now show up in why the White Sox are in 3rd in the way-too-early Zips projections.

Twins - much younger roster than the old White Sox. Fangraphs doesn't project them to drop off like they project for the White Sox old guys. 
White Sox - lost a ton to free agency, more than the Twins by quite a bit. Twins lost a 4.4 WAR player in Correa as you note, White Sox lose a 3.9 WAR player in Abreu which you don't. White Sox also lose way more in pitching, and Andrus and Harrison were each more valuable than any player other than Correa the Twins are losing to FA. 
White Sox had a record a few games better than the Twins, but a run differential that would make them about 5 games worse than the Twins - only their record in 1 run games prevented that from sorting out.

While there remains a path to them being the best team in the division with a lot of bouncebacks and a serious underperformance by Cleveland, this White Sox team is far from the best team in the division on paper and the Zips projections are capturing that. 

[ChiSox59]

21 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

All the other points that I've been making in reply now show up in why the White Sox are in 3rd in the way-too-early Zips projections.

Twins - much younger roster than the old White Sox. Fangraphs doesn't project them to drop off like they project for the White Sox old guys. 
White Sox - lost a ton to free agency, more than the Twins by quite a bit. Twins lost a 4.4 WAR player in Correa as you note, White Sox lose a 3.9 WAR player in Abreu which you don't. White Sox also lose way more in pitching, and Andrus and Harrison were each more valuable than any player other than Correa the Twins are losing to FA. 
White Sox had a record a few games better than the Twins, but a run differential that would make them about 5 games worse than the Twins - only their record in 1 run games prevented that from sorting out.

While there remains a path to them being the best team in the division with a lot of bouncebacks and a serious underperformance by Cleveland, this White Sox team is far from the best team in the division on paper and the Zips projections are capturing that. 

Who on the Sox of note is old besides Yaz and Lynn?  The Sox core is still pretty young.  You love pointing out this Sox are old bit, but its pretty misleading when the older players are all role players, several of from 22 won't even be on the 23 roster.  Liam is a bit older as well I guess, but he's still plenty productive. Literally every other player of note is under 30, most in the 24-28 range. The Sox core is every bit as young as the Twins core.  

[ChiSox59]

10 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Who on the Sox of note is old besides Yaz and Lynn?  The Sox core is still pretty young.  You love pointing out this Sox are old bit, but its pretty misleading when the older players are all role players, several of from 22 won't even be on the 23 roster.  Liam is a bit older as well I guess, but he's still plenty productive. Literally every other player of note is under 30, most in the 24-28 range. The Sox core is every bit as young as the Twins core.  

In fact, I just did the math to prove how stupid this theory of yours is:

• Sox starting line up average age: 26.7
• Twins starting line up average age: 27.40
• Sox rotation average age: 28.66
• Twins rotation average age: 29.94
• Sox lineup + Rotation average age: 27.44
• Twins lineup + rotation average age: 28.31

PLEASE STOP SAYING THE SOX ARE OLD. 

 

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

The Twins were worse than the Sox last year and are losing Correa.  They are in much worse shape than the Sox as far as 2023 is concerned as we sit today. Of course, they have more $ to spend than we do.  

Whether you're a believer in the Guardians or not, that team isn't anything special or anything to be overly concerned about, and we know they won't be adding much via FA.

I think Sox as we currently sit are still the best team in this division, perhaps by a good distance if the key players stay healthy / get some bouncebacks.  I think adding Nimmo + a decent SP (Clevinger works; Heaney maybe) puts the Sox around the same payroll as last year, and makes them considerably better than they sit today. Of course, Nimmo feels like much more of pipedream now than it did a couple months ago with the bidding now apparently in the 6/$140M range, which we all know Sox aren't going to do. 

I keep feeling like this.  The 2020 and 21 White Sox are still in there somewhere.  I know last year poisoned the well, especially for any predictive formulas, but I really feel like the worst case scenario with TLR happened last year, and that this year will be much closer to 20/21 than 22.

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think Sox as we currently sit are still the best team in this division

Me too. We’re talking about a team that was the HEAVY favorite to win the division last year. Now all of a sudden the Sox are the third best team? No way. 

Last year was literally a “whatever can go wrong will go wrong year”, with the worst manager alive on top of that. Now that manager is gone. Yes, so is Abreu, but other than that, it’s basically the same team. And hopefully the loss of Abreu isn’t as big, considering it could mean we have better outfield defense. 

If I had to bet right now, I’m taking the Sox to win the division. 

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

In fact, I just did the math to prove how stupid this theory of yours is:

• Sox starting line up average age: 26.7
• Twins starting line up average age: 27.40
• Sox rotation average age: 28.66
• Twins rotation average age: 29.94
• Sox lineup + Rotation average age: 27.44
• Twins lineup + rotation average age: 28.31

PLEASE STOP SAYING THE SOX ARE OLD. 

 

Michael Kopech 26 years 207 days, 26.567 years old today
Dylan Cease 26 years 330 days, 26.904 years old today
Lucas Giolito 28 years 132 days, 28.362 years old today
Lance Lynn, 35 years 195 days, 35.534 years old today.

Average rotation age: 29.342 years old today. Average age of the rotation last year, weighted by who pitched - 29.6, 8th oldest in the league, and that's counting Cueto. By opening day of next season, those 4 will average 29.7.

You're including Sosa, Colas, and Martin in those aren't you? 

[Balta1701]

18 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

In fact, I just did the math to prove how stupid this theory of yours is:

• Sox starting line up average age: 26.7
• Twins starting line up average age: 27.40
• Sox rotation average age: 28.66
• Twins rotation average age: 29.94
• Sox lineup + Rotation average age: 27.44
• Twins lineup + rotation average age: 28.31

PLEASE STOP SAYING THE SOX ARE OLD. 

 

Ryan 26.46849315

Bundy 30.02191781

Gray 33.04383562

Smeltzer 27.2109589

Ober 27.36712329

Average - 28.82

I acutally can't figure out which starters you included for the Twins, I'm guessing Maeda maybe? Because this exercise also did a solid job of showing how much deeper the Twins rotation is than the White Sox's as their version of Davis Martin would be Josh Winder, but counting Maeda he's their 7th starter while I think you're counting Martin as the White Sox's fifth starter. 

[ChiSox59]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Michael Kopech 26 years 207 days, 26.567 years old today
Dylan Cease 26 years 330 days, 26.904 years old today
Lucas Giolito 28 years 132 days, 28.362 years old today
Lance Lynn, 35 years 195 days, 35.534 years old today.

Average rotation age: 29.342 years old today. Average age of the rotation last year, weighted by who pitched - 29.6, 8th oldest in the league, and that's counting Cueto. By opening day of next season, those 4 will average 29.7.

You're including Sosa, Colas, and Martin in those aren't you? 

Yes, because they are the players who currently slot into those spots? Last I checked there is a 5 man rotation and 9 players in a starting lineup. 

The Sox aren’t old. Your analysis is wrong and tired. 

[ChiSox59]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Ryan 26.46849315

Bundy 30.02191781

Gray 33.04383562

Smeltzer 27.2109589

Ober 27.36712329

Average - 28.82

I acutally can't figure out which starters you included for the Twins, I'm guessing Maeda maybe? Because this exercise also did a solid job of showing how much deeper the Twins rotation is than the White Sox's as their version of Davis Martin would be Josh Winder, but counting Maeda he's their 7th starter while I think you're counting Martin as the White Sox's fifth starter. 

Lol Smeltzer and Bundy aren’t even in the Twins organization any longer.

Try again. 

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yes, because they are the players who currently slot into those spots? Last I checked there is a 5 man rotation and 9 players in a starting lineup. 

The Sox aren’t old. Your analysis is wrong and tired. 

Davis Martin isn't a 5th starter.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Davis Martin isn't a 5th starter.

Hopefully not for long, but he’s literally our fifth starter right now.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Hopefully not for long, but he’s literally our fifth starter right now.

He's just going to pencil a 35 year in that spot for his analysis, because #Soxareold #mustmakeeverythinglookasbadashumanlypossible.

[Balta1701]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Hopefully not for long, but he’s literally our fifth starter right now.

You're right but that's the game. He gets to count Martin positively as a super young pitcher to make their rotation look younger, then accuses me of being biased when I point out that yeah, the 4 who are the actual "core" aren't a young batch any more. 2 guys who are slightly younger than average, 1 guy who is slightly older than average, one guy who is the oldest pitcher on the list. 

In 2020, the White Sox's roster was in the top 10 youngest in the league. They're just not that roster any more. They haven't been bringing up much talent to replace guys, the guys who make up the core are approaching the average age of the league or in many cases have passed it, and they've doubled down on veterans to fill holes. You feed that into a prediction algorithm and it spits back that these guys don't have a lot more room to grow, because once they get to a certain age seeing "lots of growth" becomes rare. And if you want to imagine the team being healthier next year as they get older, well you ought to know my opinion on that. 

[Dick Allen]

Not anything to do with this subject, but the highest OPS since 1947, 75 years, minimum 1000 PA, vs, LHP, is the Big Hurt. Saw it on MLBN.

[Sleepy Harold]

7 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

@Sleepy Harold - You should listen to the White Sox Talk Podcast if you haven’t already.

I made sure to catch it, figured the question couldn't be ignored with that amount of interaction. I was pleasantly surprised with how much they didn't push back on it. 

[Lip Man 1]

Regarding Martin, remember the Sox have provided no update sine he left the last game of the season with "forearm soreness". We've seen far to often how that story ends so until we see him back on the mound and pitching effectively you can't count on him for anything in your calculations. 

[Jack Parkman]

Anyone see this? 

 

Not that I think that account is credible whatsoever, but It's a weird thought. 

Edited November 24, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Anyone see this? 

 

Not that I think that account is credible whatsoever, but It's a weird thought. 

Darn it, now I want Luis Robert traded.

[hi8is]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Darn it, now I want Luis Robert traded.

What in the world would we get for Robert… and then we’d have 2.5 outfield openings ??

[ChiSox59]

19 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Anyone see this? 

 

Not that I think that account is credible whatsoever, but It's a weird thought. 

There is no possible scenario that trading Luis Robert at his lowest value to date makes a single sliver of sense. Add on to that the Sox have 33% of an OF at the moment, and yah…makes even less sense.