Mark Gonzales wonders what is next?...

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If it were me I would try to keep the payroll flat for 1 more year with the knowledge that a playoff miss in '23 means blowing it all up...but that's really easy to type.

From the perspective of the ownership group - they definitely made a fortune in 18-19, had an actual legit loss in 2020 although it was smaller than the one Reinsdorf claimed, turned a small profit in '21 but a portion of that probably went into covering the losses in 2020 and there were also still attendance restrictions for the first 1/3 of the year. At best they're probably breaking even in 2022 thanks in part to tickets sold based on the 2021 playoff run (although they may have some actual losses with a payroll this high).

Without the ticket and ad sale support of having been a playoff team, 2023 starting with the same payroll as 2022 seems to have a good chance of starting in the red - losing money on paper without revenue growth.

I know the other owners don't have control, but going from 2020 to 2023 without any actual profits returned to any of the owners? They aren't going to be thrilled about that concept. 

This is the biggest disaster of 2022.  We have no idea how much player evaluation we can take from 2022.  The separate of Tony from what happened on the field this year is impossible.  We could well be trying to sell players at their 52 week lows in almost every situation on the roster.  How much of it is Tony, how much of it is not having a real spring training in 3 years, how much of it is not having real winter work outs in 3 years, and how much of it is the players regressing?  We that is the $200 million question.  I would honestly say that running it back one more time with new leadership makes the most sense, and I am not sure we really have a choice.  But if we are going to cut, there is no point in a 10% cut.  If you are going to cut, burn it down and start over.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is the biggest disaster of 2022.  We have no idea how much player evaluation we can take from 2022.  The separate of Tony from what happened on the field this year is impossible.  We could well be trying to sell players at their 52 week lows in almost every situation on the roster.  How much of it is Tony, how much of it is not having a real spring training in 3 years, how much of it is not having real winter work outs in 3 years, and how much of it is the players regressing?  We that is the $200 million question.  I would honestly say that running it back one more time with new leadership makes the most sense, and I am not sure we really have a choice.  But if we are going to cut, there is no point in a 10% cut.  If you are going to cut, burn it down and start over.

While I totally agree with the sentiment, I also will have to face up to this - ownership spent more in 2022 than I guessed they would at my most optimistic last year. They went right up to the line that was the tax in the old CBA, and I believe last year I said "they could probably go up to the tax line" in at least one post. The people who say "They can't possibly cut payroll" right now gave plans assuming the payroll might be $170 million last offseason, and they went to $195. If there is a general sentiment that they cannot spend what they did in 2022, for the first time in a long time - the White Sox cutting payroll because they're too overstretched is actually justified.

[Lip Man 1]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

While I totally agree with the sentiment, I also will have to face up to this - ownership spent more in 2022 than I guessed they would at my most optimistic last year. They went right up to the line that was the tax in the old CBA, and I believe last year I said "they could probably go up to the tax line" in at least one post. The people who say "They can't possibly cut payroll" right now gave plans assuming the payroll might be $170 million last offseason, and they went to $195. If there is a general sentiment that they cannot spend what they did in 2022, for the first time in a long time - the White Sox cutting payroll because they're too overstretched is actually justified.

Regarding your last sentence, there's no way to know of course since we can't see the books and has been brought out in past labor situations the owners have "cooked" the books, but I have a hard time thinking the White Sox are overstretched at any point financially. In my opinion and based on some conversations I've had with people who know some of the investors, the financial restraints are self-imposed.

[Balta1701]

Just now, Lip Man 1 said:

Regarding your last sentence, there's no way to know of course since we can't see the books and has been brought out in past labor situations the owners have "cooked" the books, but I have a hard time thinking the White Sox are overstretched at any point financially. In my opinion and based on some conversations I've had with people who know some of the investors, the financial restraints are self-imposed.

They're #7 in payroll this season and #17 in attendance. There's some ways around that - extra money for ads from having the Chicago Market and from having playoff games, being willing to pull in 0 profit for a year because the team value is growing, the sweetheart stadium deal, but that only holds so long. Lose the playoff ticket sales, lose any extra revenue that comes from ads in a crowded ballpark during playoff games...the math is tough here. 

I doubt they lost substantial amounts of money in 2022. But without the support of a playoff team, the same payroll in 2023 - top 7 in baseball - could readily leave them in the red on paper next April. And if ownership wasn't willing to do that, after several other years of taking losses...that's not unreasonable, a team can't operate in the red forever. 

[Lip Man 1]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

They're #7 in payroll this season and #17 in attendance. There's some ways around that - extra money for ads from having the Chicago Market and from having playoff games, being willing to pull in 0 profit for a year because the team value is growing, the sweetheart stadium deal, but that only holds so long. Lose the playoff ticket sales, lose any extra revenue that comes from ads in a crowded ballpark during playoff games...the math is tough here. 

I doubt they lost substantial amounts of money in 2022. But without the support of a playoff team, the same payroll in 2023 - top 7 in baseball - could readily leave them in the red on paper next April. And if ownership wasn't willing to do that, after several other years of taking losses...that's not unreasonable, a team can't operate in the red forever. 

Valid points. I'm simply saying that MLB is a 10-12 billion dollar a year business now with money pouring in from domestic and international sources. The Sox in my opinion could pay out whatever they wish without financial harm to any of the owners.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Valid points. I'm simply saying that MLB is a 10-12 billion dollar a year business now with money pouring in from domestic and international sources. The Sox in my opinion could pay out whatever they wish without financial harm to any of the owners.

let's go with $10 billion per year - an average team therefore would have a revenue of $333 million per year. 

League wide, we know that players are getting somewhere around 40% of revenue, maybe a little higher after the last CBA.

If the White Sox are an average revenue team (remember they're below average on attendance) - then they'd be at $333 million in revenue. A $195 million payroll there is a 58% revenue share going to players - plus we know there's at least $15 million in benefits on top of that that are coutned as payroll.

So the league is paying 40% of their revenue to players, the White Sox are paying 63% of revenue to players right now?

That's even higher than the rate players were getting in the early 2000s. 

Now, imagine that they drop back to 23rd in attendance, like they were in 2019? Not a big drop, but now we're talking about 65, 70% of revenue going to players? That's starting the season in the red, unless they can sell a lto of new ads or new tickets during the year.

They may or may not be able to support that salary, it's going to be up to ownership as to what they will tolerate. 

[southsider2k5]

38 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

While I totally agree with the sentiment, I also will have to face up to this - ownership spent more in 2022 than I guessed they would at my most optimistic last year. They went right up to the line that was the tax in the old CBA, and I believe last year I said "they could probably go up to the tax line" in at least one post. The people who say "They can't possibly cut payroll" right now gave plans assuming the payroll might be $170 million last offseason, and they went to $195. If there is a general sentiment that they cannot spend what they did in 2022, for the first time in a long time - the White Sox cutting payroll because they're too overstretched is actually justified.

The season ticket base seemed to be around 20,000, or a bit more this year.  If they start cutting, there is a real good chance that number goes down by a lot.

[Balta1701]

38 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The season ticket base seemed to be around 20,000, or a bit more this year.  If they start cutting, there is a real good chance that number goes down by a lot.

I think the lack of playoffs and performance this year does that already.

[southsider2k5]

23 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think the lack of playoffs and performance this year does that already.

And cuts make it worse.

[Dick Allen]

The other thing is the base was a little overinflated with people who bought packages this year for playoff tickets last year. Those are the type that jump ship a lot faster than those who came through the rebuild.

 

It's put up or shut up time for JR. He's going to have to risk perhaps his biggest financial loss to get through this.

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

let's go with $10 billion per year - an average team therefore would have a revenue of $333 million per year. 

League wide, we know that players are getting somewhere around 40% of revenue, maybe a little higher after the last CBA.

If the White Sox are an average revenue team (remember they're below average on attendance) - then they'd be at $333 million in revenue. A $195 million payroll there is a 58% revenue share going to players - plus we know there's at least $15 million in benefits on top of that that are coutned as payroll.

So the league is paying 40% of their revenue to players, the White Sox are paying 63% of revenue to players right now?

That's even higher than the rate players were getting in the early 2000s. 

Now, imagine that they drop back to 23rd in attendance, like they were in 2019? Not a big drop, but now we're talking about 65, 70% of revenue going to players? That's starting the season in the red, unless they can sell a lto of new ads or new tickets during the year.

They may or may not be able to support that salary, it's going to be up to ownership as to what they will tolerate. 

You're forgetting they have one of the most favorable media rights deals in the sport.

And somehow that gets obscured in their ownership structure with NBC Universal, the Bulls, Blackhawks, etc.

Unfortunately, the last deal signed was for just five seasons, with everyone believing the next negotiation would come right in the middle of their unprecedented multi championship window.

If they miss the playoffs again or substantially roll back payroll, they're more dead in the water than 2013-2019.

 

This is about ownership, though.

The Padres were the laughing stock of mlb a year ago and doubled down to get Soto and Drury.  They simply replaced one Top 5 with another one. They had enough allowance for Bell and Hader to flop...Drury (less money for renting a 30+ homer guy two months than Leury by far) and having adequate middle infield and pitching depth.  They have a third string catcher in Alfaro picked up for almost nothing who has individually won five games by himself...more than Robert and Moncada combined.

[caulfield12]

46 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The other thing is the base was a little overinflated with people who bought packages this year for playoff tickets last year. Those are the type that jump ship a lot faster than those who came through the rebuild.

 

It's put up or shut up time for JR. He's going to have to risk perhaps his biggest financial loss to get through this.

Exactly.  I can't think of many managers who would move the meter much on ticket sales, either.  Maddon, his time has passed. Bochy might not want the headaches.  

Beltran has that checkered past but a recognizable name.  Alomar Jr. has always been expected but a second place finisher for managerial jobs.

Next we will be rectifying the Willie Harris wrong.

[South Side Hit Men]

9 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

If it were me I would try to keep the payroll flat for 1 more year with the knowledge that a playoff miss in '23 means blowing it all up...but that's really easy to type.

From the perspective of the ownership group - they definitely made a fortune in 18-19, had an actual legit loss in 2020 although it was smaller than the one Reinsdorf claimed, turned a small profit in '21 but a portion of that probably went into covering the losses in 2020 and there were also still attendance restrictions for the first 1/3 of the year. At best they're probably breaking even in 2022 thanks in part to tickets sold based on the 2021 playoff run (although they may have some actual losses with a payroll this high).

Without the ticket and ad sale support of having been a playoff team, 2023 starting with the same payroll as 2022 seems to have a good chance of starting in the red - losing money on paper without revenue growth.

I know the other owners don't have control, but going from 2020 to 2023 without any actual profits returned to any of the owners? They aren't going to be thrilled about that concept. 

They have significant profit from CSN that they don't include in their White Sox results, since Jerry owns this separate from the team. Also have tons of new shared MLB revenue, the Sox could operate with a $200M-$250M payroll indefinitely and still come out with a higher profit margin than most businesses.

[Lip Man 1]

6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Exactly.  I can't think of many managers who would move the meter much on ticket sales, either.  Maddon, his time has passed. Bochy might not want the headaches.  

Beltran has that checkered past but a recognizable name.  Alomar Jr. has always been expected but a second place finisher for managerial jobs.

Next we will be rectifying the Willie Harris wrong.

if the stories I've been reading his name always seems to be mentioned.

Just what the Sox need, another member of "the family" with no previous experience.

 

[Balta1701]

8 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

if the stories I've been reading his name always seems to be mentioned.

Just what the Sox need, another member of "the family" with no previous experience.

 

Harris has been a minor league coach for  the White Sox, Reds, and Giants, and now a 3b coach for the Cubs for 3 years. He is genuinely working his way up the right way and is showing a commitment to coaching and learning. He isn’t the most experienced but definitely isn’t Robin Ventura/should be coaching little league. I would have no issues including him in a professional and well run interview process and if he stood out based on personality or ideas for how to fix this team, move him ahead.

[joejoesox]

15 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Exactly.  I can't think of many managers who would move the meter much on ticket sales, either.  Maddon, his time has passed. Bochy might not want the headaches.  

Beltran has that checkered past but a recognizable name.  Alomar Jr. has always been expected but a second place finisher for managerial jobs.

Next we will be rectifying the Willie Harris wrong.

whoever the mgr is, I'm hoping it's someone younger with something to prove

[SpringfieldFan]

On 9/27/2022 at 1:46 PM, caulfield12 said:

Hahn is so bad he has roughly 1/2 the fan base advocating for a third rebuild as this competitive window was so uniquely disappointing.

Not even the Indians/Guardians pulled the plug so quickly.

I'm sure not in that half. One more rebuild and I start to wonder if I will see another championship in my lifetime.

Edited September 29, 2022 by SpringfieldFan

[Lip Man 1]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Harris has been a minor league coach for  the White Sox, Reds, and Giants, and now a 3b coach for the Cubs for 3 years. He is genuinely working his way up the right way and is showing a commitment to coaching and learning. He isn’t the most experienced but definitely isn’t Robin Ventura/should be coaching little league. I would have no issues including him in a professional and well run interview process and if he stood out based on personality or ideas for how to fix this team, move him ahead.

I know he's been coaching but the Sox need genuine outside people to come in and look at the problems and issues this franchise is facing with an open mind and fresh ideas. Not folks in any way connected to this organization or have any loyalty to JR. 

Haven't they learned for what's happened in the past along these lines? The times it has failed greatly outweigh perhaps the one time it worked (for awhile anyway) with Ozzie.

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

I know he's been coaching but the Sox need genuine outside people to come in and look at the problems and issues this franchise is facing with an open mind and fresh ideas. Not folks in any way connected to this organization or have any loyalty to JR. 

Haven't they learned for what's happened in the past along these lines? The times it has failed greatly outweigh perhaps the one time it worked (for awhile anyway) with Ozzie.

Will be interesting to see how much the media puts their feet to the fire about minority candidates.  W.Harris Beltran Alomar Jr. three of them.

[South Side Hit Men]

30 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Will be interesting to see how much the media puts their feet to the fire about minority candidates.  W.Harris Beltran Alomar Jr. three of them.

Willie was one of two managerial finalists in 2020. He could be once again.

Joe Espada if he's not being promoted this offseason (he's not leaving Houston for a lateral move, really a downgrade since the Houston job is far superior in every aspect).

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Willie was one of two managerial finalists in 2020. He could be once again.

Willie Harris was interviewed because the White Sox had decided to hire Tony LaRussa and MLB has a "Selig rule" that requires you to interview a minority candidate. He was not an actual finalist, he was given a sham interview to check the box required to be allowed to go hire the white guy they wanted to hire. Being a "finalist" would imply he had a shot, he was never actually in the competition.

[South Side Hit Men]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Willie Harris was interviewed because the White Sox had decided to hire Tony LaRussa and MLB has a "Selig rule" that requires you to interview a minority candidate. He was not an actual finalist, he was given a sham interview to check the box required to be allowed to go hire the white guy they wanted to hire. Being a "finalist" would imply he had a shot, he was never actually in the competition.

I guess teal is required to denote sarcasm.

[GradMc]

The entire Reinsdorf tenure has been nothing more than a series of 3 to 5 year rebuilds.

He refuses to spend money on elite front office decision-makers and on-field difference-makers.

Had he ponied up for the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity of signing  Harper-Machado it would dramatically altered the organization's profile.

He should have sold after the 2005 parade.

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by GradMc

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, GradMc said:

The entire Reinsdorf tenure has been nothing more than a series of 3 to 5 year rebuilds.

He refuses to spend money on elite front office decision-makers and on-field difference-makers.

Had he ponied up for the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity of signing  Harper-Machado it would dramatically altered the organization's profile.

He should have sold after the 2005 parade.

 

Notice the results every time the Indians/Guardians have done it.  Probably 4-5 cycles since that great 1994-1999 team that sold old Jacobs Field so many consecutive times back then.

[South Side Hit Men]

6 hours ago, GradMc said:

The entire Reinsdorf tenure has been nothing more than a series of 3 to 5 year rebuilds.

He refuses to spend money on elite front office decision-makers and on-field difference-makers.

Had he ponied up for the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity of signing  Harper-Machado it would dramatically altered the organization's profile.

He should have sold after the 2005 parade.

The Sox would have had the owner who brought five Super Bowls and Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, Steve Young and Bill Walsh to the 49ers; and brought Mario Lemieux and two Stanley Cups to Pittsburgh.

However, the American League owners blocked the sale, in part because they hated Bill Veeck and in part because penny pinching owners like Bud Selig and several other teams didn't want a competent ownership group owning the Sox, so they plotted to install Jerry instead.