2022 season was insane bad luck

[Kalapse]

8 minutes ago, The Kids Can Play said:

Grandal used to have elite plate discipline. I don't think Grandal getting his legs back is the problem or will improve his hitting. He has lost his good batting eye at the plate. He isn't seeing the pitches as well as he used to, in terms of making contact or getting walks. He has way more swings missing the ball, especially swinging at more pitches outside the zone. 

The fact is he is 33 years old and will be 35 at the start of next season. Every player has a different falling off point, but at 35 yrs old, his better days are behind him. 

Grandal is 91st percentile in BB% and 92nd percentile in chase rate. His K rate this year is basically the same as it was last year too. He still has elite plate discipline, though not super-elite like last year, it's the rest of his game that's god awful. Yas should be proud, 1st percentile in sprint speed and pop time to 2nd.

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, The Kids Can Play said:

Grandal used to have elite plate discipline. I don't think Grandal getting his legs back is the problem or will improve his hitting. He has lost his good batting eye at the plate. He isn't seeing the pitches as well as he used to, in terms of making contact or getting walks. He has way more swings missing the ball, especially swinging at more pitches outside the zone. 

The fact is he is 33 years old and will be 35 at the start of next season. Every player has a different falling off point, but at 35 yrs old, his better days are behind him. 

That's all true. But none of that changes the dollar amount he's owed, and none of that makes another catcher magically appear. They have 2 guys capable of catching right now other than Grandal, which means they would need someone else on the roster in the event of injury next year.

Here are your options:

1. Pay Grandal $18.25 million in 2023, play him along with Zavala as your main catchers, Perez moves in when there's an injury and spends a decent portion of the year in Charlotte.

2. Pay Grandal $18.25 million to leave. Sign another catcher for $1-$5 million. Get a .600 OPS from someone like Luke Maile or Kurt Suzuki for that money or maybe gamble on a Roberto Perez coming back from a severe leg injury. Your catching rotation is now Zavala, Perez, Maile or Perez or whatever else. Total cost - $19-20 million. Costs you extra to feel good about dumping Grandal, congrats. 

3. Pay Grandal $18.25 million to leave, trade for a catcher. Total cost $19 million or more, and you've given up somethign from a weak system. Costs you money and a player to get rid of Grandal. 

4. Package a player with Grandal and see if someone will take Grandal's deal for a top 100 prospect. Montgomery + Grandal for a minor league reliever saves Reinsdorf the $18.25 million. 

 

The right answer is #1. Stop putting him at DH, see if you can get a platoon bat out of him and Zavala behind the plate. If he's terrible, so is any other catcher you might bring in. Develop Perez for a year, out from under the contract after the season. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

23 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

If you can get something interesting back I'd be all for it.  Moncada seems to never play with fire.  Burger seems to always play with fire.  Our team has no fire, and no good leadership.  Start replacing the slugs.

The Moncada situation is kind of like the Bellinger situation.

Bellinger was even better than Moncada. Bellinger was a 4th round pick so he didn't come with the hype or expectations of Moncada. His 1st 3 years his fWar was 3.9, (ROY) 3.8 and the MVP yr was 7.7 in 2019. 2020 Covid shortened season 1.6. His downfall can probably be linked to a couple dislocated  right shoulders diving for ground balls playing 1st base and celebrating a HR and his subsequent shoulder surgery after the 2020 season. His fWar  2021 (-1.0) and 2022 (1.3) seasons . Dodgers total investment

The Dodgers paid him $1.8M for his 1st 3 seasons .After that he was $11.5 M in 2020, $16.1M in 2021 and $17M in 2022. Total investment $46.325M. The Dodgers did not extend him . His higher salaries were due to arbitration. He is now 27 yrs old and likely to be non tendered.

Moncada: Let's start with his salary . $31.5M signing bonus by the Red Sox who then had to pay 100% Tax making their outlay $63M. 2017 $535K, 2018 $555K, 2019 $575K at which was his breakout season w/ 5.5 fWAR.

Early March 2020 The Sox signed Moncada to a 5 yr. extension worth $70M with a team option for 2025 . That $70M includes the 2025 buyout. Between his signing bonus with the Red Sox and his extension with the White Sox Yoan will have collected  $103.165M guaranteed .  $71.165M from the White Sox.

4 months after signing the extension Moncada got Covid. Was Hahn to blame for signing a player to an extension in the middle of a pandemic ? Did they know Yoan's personal life and did that personal life lead to getting Covid ? Is Covid to blame for his downfall ? Is it lifestyle ? Effort? or more injuries ? He seems to be hitting well from the RH side this year when he's always been better LH. Is the oblique still hampering his LH swing.? That injury happened in the last game of Spring Training so quite a while ago. He's also been hampered by quad and hamstring problems and seems very good at fouling pitches off himself.

So the Sox have invested quite a bit more in Moncada than the Dodgers have in Bellinger and the Sox can only Hope Moncada can rebound because they can't non tender him.

Bellinger also has more fWar in his career , both are 27 and both have had injuries and struggles at the plate either because of them or the usual other baseball reasons for hitters losing it.

[SpringfieldFan]

I am all for optimism but there are only so many times I can dip into that well.

90 wins next year might be possible with a few more stars lining up - that does give you a central title but not a playoff quality team. I am beyond where the hope of backing into the playoffs makes up for enduring the product I have to watch along the way.

Maybe the injuries are in line with the norm these days. However, the abject stupidity these players show at the plate, on the basepaths, and in the field is hardly the norm. Neither is not giving decent effort or showing you even care - when that's the least of what the paying fans are entitled to see. These last couple weeks are an insult. Act like a damn professional player with some pride in what your doing for heaven's sake!!!

At this point, I hate to say it, but W-L aside, I just don't "like" this group of players (I hesitate to call them a team because they sure don't seem to want to do the least thing to honor the White Sox brand). 

And then the management and ownership...

[Lip Man 1]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

The Moncada situation is kind of like the Bellinger situation.

Bellinger was even better than Moncada. Bellinger was a 4th round pick so he didn't come with the hype or expectations of Moncada. His 1st 3 years his fWar was 3.9, (ROY) 3.8 and the MVP yr was 7.7 in 2019. 2020 Covid shortened season 1.6. His downfall can probably be linked to a couple dislocated  right shoulders diving for ground balls playing 1st base and celebrating a HR and his subsequent shoulder surgery after the 2020 season. His fWar  2021 (-1.0) and 2022 (1.3) seasons . Dodgers total investment

The Dodgers paid him $1.8M for his 1st 3 seasons .After that he was $11.5 M in 2020, $16.1M in 2021 and $17M in 2022. Total investment $46.325M. The Dodgers did not extend him . His higher salaries were due to arbitration. He is now 27 yrs old and likely to be non tendered.

Moncada: Let's start with his salary . $31.5M signing bonus by the Red Sox who then had to pay 100% Tax making their outlay $63M. 2017 $535K, 2018 $555K, 2019 $575K at which was his breakout season w/ 5.5 fWAR.

Early March 2020 The Sox signed Moncada to a 5 yr. extension worth $70M with a team option for 2025 . That $70M includes the 2025 buyout. Between his signing bonus with the Red Sox and his extension with the White Sox Yoan will have collected  $103.165M guaranteed .  $71.165M from the White Sox.

4 months after signing the extension Moncada got Covid. Was Hahn to blame for signing a player to an extension in the middle of a pandemic ? Did they know Yoan's personal life and did that personal life lead to getting Covid ? Is Covid to blame for his downfall ? Is it lifestyle ? Effort? or more injuries ? He seems to be hitting well from the RH side this year when he's always been better LH. Is the oblique still hampering his LH swing.? That injury happened in the last game of Spring Training so quite a while ago. He's also been hampered by quad and hamstring problems and seems very good at fouling pitches off himself.

So the Sox have invested quite a bit more in Moncada than the Dodgers have in Bellinger and the Sox can only Hope Moncada can rebound because they can't non tender him.

Bellinger also has more fWar in his career , both are 27 and both have had injuries and struggles at the plate either because of them or the usual other baseball reasons for hitters losing it.

You wonder given his propensity to foul pitches off his foot, ankle, lower leg why he doesn't wear a small shin guard every at bat.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

8 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Seby was a 1 WAR player this year in 200 PAs by B-R and 1.9 WAR by Fangraphs. I would be skeptical about that latter number, but that performance is easily a catcher in a rotation. He was much better behind the plate this year and showed offensive promise. Seby and Reese could have been a solid platoon at that position.

Sure, he’s had his moments this year, but as someone I’ve followed for many years in the minors, he’s going to need way more than 200 good AB’s for me to believe in him. Is there a chance he magically figured something out this season? Absolutely, I just don’t have all that much faith in leaning on him to be an actual option moving forward.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Sure, he’s had his moments this year, but as someone I’ve followed for many years in the minors, he’s going to need way more than 200 good AB’s for me to believe in him. Is there a chance he magically figured something out this season? Absolutely, I just don’t have all that much faith in leaning on him to be an actual option moving forward.

Yeah I think he would be my third option, possible second option if they need to pull the cord on Grandal during the season in 2023.

[Balta1701]

Just now, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Sure, he’s had his moments this year, but as someone I’ve followed for many years in the minors, he’s going to need way more than 200 good AB’s for me to believe in him. Is there a chance he magically figured something out this season? Absolutely, I just don’t have all that much faith in leaning on him to be an actual option moving forward.

The requirements for a backup catcher to have value are so low though that it doesn't take a big breakout for him to be a useful piece for the next couple years...a .600 OPS backup catcher can be a 1 WAR player if he's not making errors or letting the ball fly past him all the time. It costs money to bring guys like that in.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Yeah I think he would be my third option, possible second option if they need to pull the cord on Grandal during the season in 2023.

Who is your 2nd option then? 

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Who is your 2nd option then? 

Free agent? I don't have that answer yet. Depth isn't a bad thing.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Bob Sacamano

[Balta1701]

Just now, Bob Sacamano said:

Free agent? I don't have that answer yet. Depth isn't a bad thing.

You're right it isn't. Good luck finding money to pay for that.

[Texsox]

On 9/28/2022 at 3:35 AM, Sarava said:

Injury prone players getting injured is not insane bad luck. It's an expected outcome.

If you're going to build a team based on a core of fragile players that can't stay on the field, then you at least better build up insane depth. Unfortunately the Sox depth is among the worst in baseball.

And people are disappointed they didn't win the division. They should have known this team couldn't win. 

[A-Train to 35th]

2 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

You wonder given his propensity to foul pitches off his foot, ankle, lower leg why he doesn't wear a small shin guard every at bat.

He did until he changed his shoe color to pink and didn't have a pink shin guard to match his shoes so he left it off.  He has a white one and I believe he even had a yellow one for the yellow shoes, but they must still be making the pink guard.

[Tony]

On 9/28/2022 at 2:49 AM, Dominikk85 said:

There definitely have been mistakes:

-not great on field management and coaching (TLR, menechino) 

-free agent signings and trade acquisitions not all working well (for example pollock) 

-general lack of activity by front office in off season and deadline

-lack of minor league development showing up in organizational depth

However still even with TLR, menechino and the lack of activity this team likely would have won 90 games in that weak ass division if not for dozens of DL stints to key players like lynn, Anderson, robert, moncada, grandal, eloy and others as the sox are a top heavy team who needs it's stars on the field (but even a team with better depth would have had a tough time with that many injuries).

That means next season definitely should be better, especially if TLR will really retire like those rumors are saying. 

Sure, parts of the core are aging and at some point it will get tough due to the lack of minor league development (albeit it seems to get a little better, at least Montgomery looks like a future star) but I expect more health by those core players and the sox competing for the division again next year even without changes to the front office and huge new player acquisitions. 

WHY IS COMPETING FOR THE DIVISION GOOD ENOUGH? That was what the "rebuild" was for? To "compete" in the worst division in baseball? 

[Lip Man 1]

4 hours ago, A-Train to 35th said:

He did until he changed his shoe color to pink and didn't have a pink shin guard to match his shoes so he left it off.  He has a white one and I believe he even had a yellow one for the yellow shoes, but they must still be making the pink guard.

Are you serious? So the guy risks injury over a shin guard color???

Can you say "baseball-stupid?"

[South Side Hit Men]

48 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Are you serious? So the guy risks injury over a shin guard color???

Can you say "baseball-stupid?"

But fashion savvy. Baseball is just a minor component of the complete Yoan Moncada package.

Priorities.

 

[RTC]

This idea that either the Sox had more injuries than other teams or they lost more important players or that they had worse luck has to stop because it’s not true.  They’re a crappy organization in a crappy division. 

Bubble size below is lost WAR

Plenty of teams suffered way worse and either made the playoffs, or are still competing, and not in a crappy division.  Twins got hit harder than the Sox.  Look at the Rays and realize they’re still in it - that’s what good organizations can overcome.