Will "core" players be traded before Spring Training?

[South Side Hit Men]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Yes, someone will take a flyer on taking Lynn's contract on. If they're willing to pay Syndergaard $20 million then someone would take Lynn on for $19 million. But you won't get anything back for him more than money, and I ask you this what is the point? The White Sox have no one to replace him! Signing Quintana for $14 million after dumping Lynn's $19 million - does that make the White Sox better? 

Eloy would probably bring back a small return. He has hit well this year, but you are talking about a guy due minimum $27 million on his deal over the next 2 years, while having played 134 games over 2 seasons. Would you pay $27 million for less than 1 year's worth of plate appearances for a DH? One who has an OPS in the mid-800s this year in the best stretch we've seen from him? And oh by the way he's only hitting .214 since the team quit. Oh and yes, he has option years on his contract - for $16.5 and $18.5 million. Depending on what happens with some other guys, picking up any of those options would make him one of the highest paid DHs in the league. I would take that deal on if I was the Mets or Dodgers, and you can have a reliever or something like that back for him, but something of real value? Not with that contract. If I were a low salary team like the Brewers or Marlins? Not a chance. 

The thing about Eloy and Moncada is they are in their 20s, and both will be highly motivated over the next two seasons for their next big contract.

Dodgers are the most likely trade partner.

• Moncada to replace Max Muncy.
• Lynn and or Giolito helps with depth with Price ($32M) and likely Bauer ($35M unless he somehow wins his arbitration) off the books.
• Liam to replace Kimbrel.
• Anderson to replace Trea Turner if the Dodgers don't want to commit to what he is seeking.
• Eloy to replace Justin Turner.

The could shed a few veterans" Grandal, Pollock, Graveman, Kelly and/or Leury, could net some solid prospects as well if Hahn isn't involved.

Don't think they would take payroll down to $50M-$80M, but they could get payroll down to $140M-$160M on Opening Day and claim they will be competitive. Most here won't buy it, but the general fan base might be satisfied with a new manager, guys coming back healthy and a new attitude in the clubhouse.

[Balta1701]

10 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

The thing about Eloy and Moncada is they are in their 20s, and both will be highly motivated over the next two seasons for their next big contract.

Dodgers are the most likely trade partner.

• Moncada to replace Max Muncy.
• Lynn and or Giolito helps with depth with Price ($32M) and likely Bauer ($35M unless he somehow wins his arbitration) off the books.
• Liam to replace Kimbrel.
• Anderson to replace Trea Turner if the Dodgers don't want to commit to what he is seeking.
• Eloy to replace Justin Turner.

The could shed a few veterans" Grandal, Pollock, Graveman, Kelly and/or Leury, could net some solid prospects as well if Hahn isn't involved.

Don't think they would take payroll down to $50M-$80M, but they could get payroll down to $140M-$160M on Opening Day and claim they will be competitive. Most here won't buy it, but the general fan base might be satisfied with a new manager, guys coming back healthy and a new attitude in the clubhouse.

I agree several of those contracts are sheddable.  The White Sox could probably get their payroll down to $100 million, or $140 million, whatever. But how is that anything that makes them better? There aren't guys coming up who can replace these guys, and if you're expecting the Dodgers to take on $100 million in payroll this year how exactly do you think they're going to give back players? You now have no starting SS, Davis Martin is your #3 starter, Jake Burger is your 3b.

Grandal, Pollock, Kelly, and Leury are included in a list of "could net some solid prospects as well if Hahn isn't involved." Please continue Governor. 

[caulfield12]

27 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Yes, someone will take a flyer on taking Lynn's contract on. If they're willing to pay Syndergaard $20 million then someone would take Lynn on for $19 million. But you won't get anything back for him more than money, and I ask you this what is the point? The White Sox have no one to replace him! Signing Quintana for $14 million after dumping Lynn's $19 million - does that make the White Sox better? 

Eloy would probably bring back a small return. He has hit well this year, but you are talking about a guy due minimum $27 million on his deal over the next 2 years, while having played 134 games over 2 seasons. Would you pay $27 million for less than 1 year's worth of plate appearances for a DH? One who has an OPS in the mid-800s this year in the best stretch we've seen from him? And oh by the way he's only hitting .214 since the team quit. Oh and yes, he has option years on his contract - for $16.5 and $18.5 million. Depending on what happens with some other guys, picking up any of those options would make him one of the highest paid DHs in the league. I would take that deal on if I was the Mets or Dodgers, and you can have a reliever or something like that back for him, but something of real value? Not with that contract. If I were a low salary team like the Brewers or Marlins? Not a chance. 

Moncada is not movable unless you take back comparably bad money. My examples are still guys like Corbin (too much money remaining), Hosmer, etc. Moncada for Hosmer is a deal the Red Sox do. 

Robert Vaughn Cease TA7 Kopech...those are the five guys who would give you the biggest return but would require the Sox to actually take the right set of prospects back.

And dealing Robert at fifty cents on the dollar is truly scary for most Sox fans...

[South Side Hit Men]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

I agree several of those contracts are sheddable.  The White Sox could probably get their payroll down to $100 million, or $140 million, whatever. But how is that anything that makes them better? There aren't guys coming up who can replace these guys, and if you're expecting the Dodgers to take on $100 million in payroll this year how exactly do you think they're going to give back players? You now have no starting SS, Davis Martin is your #3 starter, Jake Burger is your 3b.

Grandal, Pollock, Kelly, and Leury are included in a list of "could net some solid prospects as well if Hahn isn't involved." Please continue Senator. 

Don't see the White Sox' primary organizational objective to make the team "better"; it's to make Jerry and the owners bank accounts better. Jerry was willing to crank up payroll for his BFF, but with Tony gone and attendance heading further downward next season, there is little to no motivation to sustain that kind of payroll.

Don't think they will do a complete teardown. They can sell off 2-4 players, saying we needed to change the team, have a new approach and with a rebound and health of the remaining players, they expect to compete in 2023. Not saying it will work or that many here will buy it, just seeing that as more likely than the Sox bumping up payroll to get an actual RF, 2B, 5th Starter, relievers you actually want, etc..

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Don't see the White Sox' primary organizational objective to make the team "better"; it's to make Jerry and the owners bank accounts better. Jerry was willing to crank up payroll for his BFF, but with Tony gone and attendance heading further downward next season, there is little to no motivation to sustain that kind of payroll.

Don't think they will do a complete teardown. They can sell off 2-4 players, saying we needed to change the team, have a new approach and with a rebound and health of the remaining players, they expect to compete in 2023. Not saying it will work or that many here will buy it, just seeing that as more likely than the Sox bumping up payroll to get an actual RF, 2B, 5th Starter, relievers you actually want, etc..

See that's the problem - they can't sell off 2 to 4 players. They don't have replacements for the expensive guys! They can't sell off Lynn because they don't have anyone to replace him. They can't sell off Grandal or Moncada because no one will take their deals without sending equally bad money back. They can't just sell Anderson or Giolito, because that doesn't save them a ton of money and they don't have replacements ready for them. It doesn't help the White Sox save money to sell off Anderson to move Moncada's deal and then have to go out and sign Correa for the same money, or to sell off Anderson and Moncada to make their IF into Burger and Andrus.

Making moves like that while still being competitive can happen if you're the Rays or Guardians and you have a strong system with guys who can replace the ones you're trading away. The White Sox don't.

If they are selling off bad contracts to clear money that they're going to spend on free agents, they save very little money. If they are selling off for prospects, they won't get much back for the guys you've mentioned. And importantly - if they sell off guys and make their roster worse, they are also wasting control of Cease. 

[caulfield12]

Dodgers would take Lopez Hendriks and Moncada OR Jimenez back.

Reup with Trea Turner.

Best team in baseball again.

Sox would simply free up salary.

Ofc, they could also simply let Gavin Lux play where he belongs.

[caulfield12]

Can the Sox even be trusted to get anything back for Vaughn/Jimenez and Graveman/Hendriks?

One obvious point is that they need to resolve the Abreu issue first.  Personally, keeping both younger players is my preference over watching another Konerko Death/Retirement Watch year.

And we do have to know what Pollock will do as well.

 

Just give Joe Kelly back to the Dodgers for 50 cents?  Save enough to pay Leury, lol.

Reynaldo Lopez could take that late inning role realistically.

Sheets gets a negligible return...but you have Colas to replace him ofc.

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by caulfield12

[Lip Man 1]

As Paul Sullivan suggested yesterday in his column the only guys the Sox have who may bring anything back are the core guys. 

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Can the Sox even be trusted to get anything back for Vaughn/Jimenez and Graveman/Hendriks?

Vaughn? Yes. 4 years of control, still pre-arb. He would return value. 

Jimenez? No. He's played less than 1 season in the last 2 years and is due $27 million over the next 2, as a DH. A team with money could gamble on taking him on but they won't give you anything of significant value back.

Graveman? Maybe. He's affordable, but his ERA in the 2nd half is 5.40. People would take him on again, but his value has gone down since the deadline and there are more relievers available in the offseason than there are at the deadline.

Hendriks? No. He's definitely movable, but he's one of the highest paid relievers in the league, he had an elbow injury this year, and his contract actually makes things worse because of the luxury tax shenanigans. If he's dominating next year in the first half, he'd be more movable for value at the deadline. 

[GreenSox]

3 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

I'd trade Gio, but I wouldn't sell low.

Doesn't he have an option that has to pick up?  Anyway, the FO doing that is the first step (and with these birds running the operation, that's no certainty).
Anyway, after this season, I don't see how he can be traded, other than selling low.  Decent chance he rebounds, with his FA season on tap.
 

[bighurt574]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Vaughn? Yes. 4 years of control, still pre-arb. He would return value. 

Jimenez? No. He's played less than 1 season in the last 2 years and is due $27 million over the next 2, as a DH. A team with money could gamble on taking him on but they won't give you anything of significant value back.

Graveman? Maybe. He's affordable, but his ERA in the 2nd half is 5.40. People would take him on again, but his value has gone down since the deadline and there are more relievers available in the offseason than there are at the deadline.

Hendriks? No. He's definitely movable, but he's one of the highest paid relievers in the league, he had an elbow injury this year, and his contract actually makes things worse because of the luxury tax shenanigans. If he's dominating next year in the first half, he'd be more movable for value at the deadline. 

 

Eloy's contract the next 2 years is pretty reasonable for a guy with his ceiling.  I get the injury concerns, but the fact that he's played only 1 year worth of games in the last 2 is no guarantee that's what the next 2 years will bring, especially if a team has a DH spot and thinks they can keep him healthy.  I think he'd have some demand.  

Seems like they either need to let Abreu walk or find a TB-style trade of young MLBers for Vaughn or Eloy to bring back some MLB-ready talent that is hopefully a better fit and not just another 1B/DH type.  

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, bighurt574 said:

 

Eloy's contract the next 2 years is pretty reasonable for a guy with his ceiling.  I get the injury concerns, but the fact that he's played only 1 year worth of games in the last 2 is no guarantee that's what the next 2 years will bring, especially if a team has a DH spot and thinks they can keep him healthy.  I think he'd have some demand.  

Seems like they either need to let Abreu walk or find a TB-style trade of young MLBers for Vaughn or Eloy to bring back some MLB-ready talent that is hopefully a better fit and not just another 1B/DH type.  

Yes, I agree with this. 

[ChiSox59]

3 hours ago, T R U said:

Abreu just cant walk if this organization still considers themselves a contender. Hes our most consistent and productive player.

You also cannot continue to play two 1B in the OF.  So something has to give...

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, bighurt574 said:

 

Eloy's contract the next 2 years is pretty reasonable for a guy with his ceiling.  I get the injury concerns, but the fact that he's played only 1 year worth of games in the last 2 is no guarantee that's what the next 2 years will bring, especially if a team has a DH spot and thinks they can keep him healthy.  I think he'd have some demand.  

Seems like they either need to let Abreu walk or find a TB-style trade of young MLBers for Vaughn or Eloy to bring back some MLB-ready talent that is hopefully a better fit and not just another 1B/DH type.  

Teams will take that on...but they're not going to give you a prospect for it.

[GreenSox]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

The could shed a few veterans" Grandal, Pollock, Graveman, Kelly and/or Leury, could net some solid prospects as well if Hahn isn't involved.

What?

[South Side Hit Men]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Vaughn? Yes. 4 years of control, still pre-arb. He would return value. 

Jimenez? No. He's played less than 1 season in the last 2 years and is due $27 million over the next 2, as a DH. A team with money could gamble on taking him on but they won't give you anything of significant value back.

Graveman? Maybe. He's affordable, but his ERA in the 2nd half is 5.40. People would take him on again, but his value has gone down since the deadline and there are more relievers available in the offseason than there are at the deadline.

Hendriks? No. He's definitely movable, but he's one of the highest paid relievers in the league, he had an elbow injury this year, and his contract actually makes things worse because of the luxury tax shenanigans. If he's dominating next year in the first half, he'd be more movable for value at the deadline. 

Dodgers don't care about luxury tax. Looking at MLB Trade Values, for discussion purposes only.

White Sox send: T. Anderson ($45.7M), Hendriks ($17.8M), Moncada (-$11.9M) & Grandal ($10.2M) = $40.9M (Net 2.6 2022 bWAR)

Dodgers send: G. Lux ($34.1M) & Brudsar Graterol ($12.4M) = $46.5M (Net 3.2 2022 bWAR).

White Sox Contract savings: $113.6M over two seasons.

White Sox swap or sign:

• D $9.5Mefensive upgrade at Shortstop Elvis Andrus (2.6 bWAR vs. Tim Anderson's 1.2 bWAR)
• Offensive upgrade at Third Base Jake Burger (.761 OPS vs. Yoan Moncada's .635)
• Free Agent signing Omar Narvaez ($5M AAV 2 years), significant upgrade over Y. Grandal (0.3 bWAR vs. -1.3 bWAR)
• Oscar Colas promoted 2023 Opening Day to start in LF, shift Robert to CF and sign Brandon Nimmo to solidify OF offense and defense.
• Every position but 3B shows a significant defensive upgrade over 2022, lineup significantly younger with upside as six players below age 27 peak year.
• Get rid of multiple reported clubhouse cancers.

(Opening Day Age & Batting Stance) 2022 OPS Salary (Linked free agent AAVs from Spotrac)

$42.3M Lineup + $22.4M Bench = $64.7M

1. 2B G. Lux (25 L) .768 $0.7M
2. RF L. Robert (24 R) .746 $9.5M (.808 career OPS - 2022 impacted by Hahn/Tony playing him crippled during 2nd half)
3. CF B. Nimmo (30 L) .778 $14.0M
4. DH E. Jimenez (26 R) .868 $10.3M
5. LF O. Colas (24 L) .895 Minors $0.7M
6. 1B A. Vaughn (24 R) .766 $0.7M
7. 3B J. Burger (26 R) .761 $0.7M
8. C S. Zavala (29 R) .729 $0.7M
9. SS E. Andrus (34 R) .696 $5.0M (Decline club option, sign as FA)

Bench: C O. Narvaez $3.2M; INF D. Mendick $0.7M; INF/OF L. Garcia $5.5M OF AJ Pollock $13.0M.

SP ($50.5M): L. Lynn ($19.5M); L. Giolito ($10.0M); D. Cease ($3.5M); M. Kopech ($2.8M); Free Agent ($14M budget - 1 or 2 SPs); M. Davis ($0.7M)

RP ($32.5M): K. Graveman ($8.0M); J. Kelly ($9.0M); R. Lopez ($4.0M); A. Bummer ($3.8M); M. Foster ($1.2M); G. Crochet ($0.7); B. Graterol ($0.7M); Two Free Agents (Two FAs $5M total budget)

Total Payroll: $147.6M ($50.0M reduction year over year)

If Jerry is only looking to cut $30M or $40M, it gives you more flexibility. in terms of maybe adding another significant starting pitcher or added depth upgrades for position players or the bullpen.

Edited September 29, 2022 by South Side Hit Men

[caulfield12]

23 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Dodgers don't care about luxury tax. Looking at MLB Trade Values, for discussion purposes only.

White Sox send: T. Anderson ($45.7M), Hendriks ($17.8M), Moncada (-$11.9M) & Grandal ($10.2M) = $40.9M (Net 2.6 2022 bWAR)

Dodgers send: G. Lux ($34.1M) & Brudsar Graterol ($12.4M) = $46.5M (Net 3.2 2022 bWAR).

White Sox Contract savings: $113.6M over two seasons.

White Sox swap or sign:

• D $9.5Mefensive upgrade at Shortstop Elvis Andrus (2.6 bWAR vs. Tim Anderson's 1.2 bWAR)
• Offensive upgrade at Third Base Jake Burger (.761 OPS vs. Yoan Moncada's .635)
• Free Agent signing Omar Narvaez ($5M AAV 2 years), significant upgrade over Y. Grandal (0.3 bWAR vs. -1.3 bWAR)
• Oscar Colas promoted 2023 Opening Day to start in LF, shift Robert to CF and sign Brandon Nimmo to solidify OF offense and defense.
• Every position but 3B shows a significant defensive upgrade over 2022, lineup significantly younger with upside as six players below age 27 peak year.
• Get rid of multiple reported clubhouse cancers.

(Opening Day Age & Batting Stance) 2022 OPS Salary (Linked free agent AAVs from Spotrac)

$42.3M Lineup + $22.4M Bench = $64.7M

1. 2B G. Lux (25 L) .768 $0.7M
2. RF L. Robert (24 R) .746 $9.5M (.808 career OPS - 2022 impacted by Hahn/Tony playing him crippled during 2nd half)
3. CF B. Nimmo (30 L) .778 $14.0M
4. DH E. Jimenez (26 R) .868 $10.3M
5. LF O. Colas (24 L) .895 Minors $0.7M
6. 1B A. Vaughn (24 R) .766 $0.7M
7. 3B J. Burger (26 R) .761 $0.7M
8. C S. Zavala (29 R) .729 $0.7M
9. SS E. Andrus (34 R) .696 $5.0M (Decline club option, sign as FA)

Bench: C O. Narvaez $3.2M; INF D. Mendick $0.7M; INF/OF L. Garcia $5.5M OF AJ Pollock $13.0M.

SP ($50.5M): L. Lynn ($19.5M); L. Giolito ($10.0M); D. Cease ($3.5M); M. Kopech ($2.8M); Free Agent ($14M budget - 1 or 2 SPs); M. Davis ($0.7M)

RP ($32.5M): K. Graveman ($8.0M); J. Kelly ($9.0M); R. Lopez ($4.0M); A. Bummer ($3.8M); M. Foster ($1.2M); G. Crochet ($0.7); B. Graterol ($0.7M); Two Free Agents (Two FAs $5M total budget)

Total Payroll: $147.6M ($50.0M reduction year over year)

If Jerry is only looking to cut $30M or $40M, it gives you more flexibility. in terms of maybe adding another significant starting pitcher or added depth upgrades for position players or the bullpen.

Robert really needs to be a CF because he’s definitely lacking the arm for RF as well.

The problem is we keep shoehorning guys in there when they don’t gave the attributes to play the position well.

Like the creativity, but it would have to come from outside the organization.  Hahn has too much already invested in this particular core to blow it up IMO.

Granted, that outfield would still be much better.  And no, not seeing TA7 giving up that glamorous SS position unless he is being dealt away.  

Also not sure Hahn would admit a mistake on Narvaez, either.

[South Side Hit Men]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Robert really needs to be a CF because he’s definitely lacking the arm for RF as well.

The problem is we keep shoehorning guys in there when they don’t gave the attributes to play the position well.

Like the creativity, but it would have to come from outside the organization.  Hahn has too much already invested in this particular core to blow it up IMO.

Granted, that outfield would still be much better.  And no, not seeing TA7 giving up that glamorous SS position unless he is being dealt away.  

Also not sure Hahn would admit a mistake on Narvaez, either.

Could also play Colas in RF, Robert CF and Nimmo LF or a different LF which you can get easier. You would significantly improve the outfield defense, which helps the pitching staff, and also the offense with significant upgrades for both corners (Pollock and Sheets removed, Vaughn should hit better playing a normal position for him)).

That mega Dodger deal would likely end up at least somewhat different, don't think they would take all four of those players, but it's consistent with what I've been calling for entering a third year now which is to:

1. Get younger / acquiring late 20s FAs who can help you win now.

2. Acquire legitimate starters at 2B and RF.

3. Stop signing high priced old people.

If the Sox did that and hired AJ Hinch or Joe Espada, and fix the scouting and minor and major league instructors/coaches and the Sox would actually be in a legitimate "multi-championship window".

[mmmmmbeeer]

I hope they run it back minus Abreu.  I just don't believe this season was at all representative of what this roster is capable of doing.  A tweak here and there and I think we're still a WS contender.  Get healthy, get a fresh start with a new coaching staff, watch these guys play as underdogs instead of favorites.  That said, I think I put a lot more blame on TLR for this disaster of a season than most...perhaps more blame than he deserves in some folks' opinion.

I may look into dealing Gio so we don't lose him for nothing but there's probably value in waiting until the deadline next season to learn if he's turned things around.  If he has, he's worth hanging onto despite no return.

[Jack Parkman]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

See that's the problem - they can't sell off 2 to 4 players. They don't have replacements for the expensive guys! They can't sell off Lynn because they don't have anyone to replace him. They can't sell off Grandal or Moncada because no one will take their deals without sending equally bad money back. They can't just sell Anderson or Giolito, because that doesn't save them a ton of money and they don't have replacements ready for them. It doesn't help the White Sox save money to sell off Anderson to move Moncada's deal and then have to go out and sign Correa for the same money, or to sell off Anderson and Moncada to make their IF into Burger and Andrus.

Making moves like that while still being competitive can happen if you're the Rays or Guardians and you have a strong system with guys who can replace the ones you're trading away. The White Sox don't.

If they are selling off bad contracts to clear money that they're going to spend on free agents, they save very little money. If they are selling off for prospects, they won't get much back for the guys you've mentioned. And importantly - if they sell off guys and make their roster worse, they are also wasting control of Cease. 

I have no idea why the rest of the board doesn't understand this. 

Hahn is married to this core. Let him sink or swim with them. 

I have zero expectations for the remainder of the decade. 

Ride it out with these guys. Either they'll get their s%*# together/stay healthy or they won't. 

I wouldn't mind selling Anderson now though. 

One more year with these guys then start the teardown process. 

Edited September 30, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

17 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Could also play Colas in RF, Robert CF and Nimmo LF or a different LF which you can get easier. You would significantly improve the outfield defense, which helps the pitching staff, and also the offense with significant upgrades for both corners (Pollock and Sheets removed, Vaughn should hit better playing a normal position for him)).

That mega Dodger deal would likely end up at least somewhat different, don't think they would take all four of those players, but it's consistent with what I've been calling for entering a third year now which is to:

1. Get younger / acquiring late 20s FAs who can help you win now.

2. Acquire legitimate starters at 2B and RF.

3. Stop signing high priced old people.

If the Sox did that and hired AJ Hinch or Joe Espada, and fix the scouting and minor and major league instructors/coaches and the Sox would actually be in a legitimate "multi-championship window".

Lux is going to be the sticking point.  We’ll just have to wait and see if they win another WS, they won’t have the same pressure to spend more this offseason.

They also have the luxury of excess pitching to trade and two huge deals coming off the books.

And Hinch hasn’t exactly distinguished himself in DET so far.

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Literally I have no idea why the rest of the board doesn't understand this. 

Hahn is married to this core. Let him sink or swim with them. 

See 2013-2016 White Sox all over again…no quality depth.

Edited September 30, 2022 by caulfield12

[TheBooneLoganEra]

What they should do is say goodbye to Abreu and trade Anderson with a throw in salary dump. What they will do is trade Vaughn and re-sign Abreu because White Sox.

[Balta1701]

57 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

 

If the Sox did that and hired AJ Hinch or Joe Espada, and fix the scouting and minor and major league instructors/coaches and the Sox would actually be in a legitimate "multi-championship window".

I would like to take a moment to laugh at the idea that a team with an infield LH side of Burger and Andrus is in the middle of a path to anything other than the draft lottery.

[South Side Hit Men]

4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Lux is going to be the sticking point.  We’ll just have to wait and see if they win another WS, they won’t have the same pressure to spend more this offseason.

They also have the luxury of excess pitching to trade and two huge deals coming off the books.

And Hinch hasn’t exactly distinguished himself in DET so far.

The Dodgers view Lux as a platoon player. I wanted the Sox to target him last year. Don't think it will be easy to get him, but worthwhile for a reasonable package.

Sox would have had a great year if they had Robbie Ray, Pablo Lopez, Wilson Contreras and Gavin Lux shoring up the rotation, defense and offensive upgrades, though Zavala developed really well. I have to credit Jerry Narron if his work helped him the past year. Also think Gallo would have had better numbers here than in NY.

Couple that with a new manager and coaching staff and this team runs away with the division, and has a good chance to be competitive in October. Targeting guys in their 20s is nearly always preferable to guys over 30 (Ray was my only target with that threshold as he turned 30 last October). People can quibble about the details, this player or that player, but the bottom line is to get continually younger in terms of players who can contribute now and have upside as they approach their peak value (age 26-28 for hitters, slightly higher for pitchers based on their development timeframe).

Catchers also take more time to develop, and it's OK to spend $4M-$6M on a decent catcher or backup who plays defense and manages the staff well, and can hit at least .650 OPS. What I'm against are large long term contracts for over 30 catchers, like Grandal or Contreras, who looks great now but likely won't in 3-4 years. The optimal way to field catchers is to develop them yourself. If Narron or the next staff can work to develop even league average catchers on a consistent basis would really help roster construction, because you can pay $2.0M-$6.0M for your two catchers and have the $14.0M in savings to spend elsewhere. Catchers typically can't go beyond 90-100 games behind the plate, so you are really looking for two solid part time players at reasonable deals.

In terms of Hinch, what has he had to work with in Detroit? His entire rotation was down at one point. I wanted Espada then and now, but would have been happy with Hinch and mentioned him because his signature was on the White Sox' official Tony La Russa announcement.

 

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by South Side Hit Men