Cody Bellinger to the Cubs

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

The Sox did have that in 2007. Josh Fields and Jerry Owens had huge Septembers leading the Sox out of the Buster Posey sweepstakes. They did the predictable thing the next season.

2007 Fields was pretty good for the Sox. Owens was a nothing hitter in the minors so I don't see any link to expectations there.

Not sure what point you're making . Prospects hit and miss all the time but it helps when they have a specific toolset that MLB is encouraging in rules changes and also fits team needs.

All this talk about trading or signing name  players is folly. They don't have the system to make trades or the money to sign anyone. They have to free up money and the logical guy is Hendriks. Any money has to go to pitching. Get some youth with speed,power, defense potential is all I've been saying and the guys I like are OF's where the need is quite pressing. I don't see how that's controversial in any way.

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

2007 Fields was pretty good for the Sox. Owens was a nothing hitter in the minors so I don't see any link to expectations there.

Not sure what point you're making . Prospects hit and miss all the time but it helps when they have a specific toolset that MLB is encouraging in rules changes and also fits team needs.

All this talk about trading or signing name  players is folly. They don't have the system to make trades or the money to sign anyone. They have to free up money and the logical guy is Hendriks. Any money has to go to pitching. Get some youth with speed,power, defense potential is all I've been saying and the guys I like are OF's where the need is quite pressing. I don't see how that's controversial in any way.

The point I’m making is it’s rather unlikely guys like Garrett or Outman are serious ROY candidates like you make them. And never believe a September call ups stats. Good or bad. Plus both of these guys played in hitters paradises in the minors in 2022. So those numbers are a big inflated. Plus they are both slightly older. About the same age Moncada was during Covid. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

$2.16M for money but not all are available so you are talking about holes elsewhere or prospects. James Outman is 25, Stone Garrett is 26, Bellinger is only 27. Outman also struck out 150 times in between AA and AAA, that's about the same swing-and-miss as Bellinger in the majors. Garrett hits RH.

He also is good defensively and is fast. He's left handed.

That doesn't sound like bad money after bad. It's risky during a contention window due to the lower guarantee of production, but that is the case with the others.

Not all are available? All we do off season is suggest trades and signing guys who aren't available. I would think that minor league guys and DFA candidates are a lot more attainable than Bellinger given the new restraints .

I'm not thinking playoffs I'm thinking younger. Aren't you sick of watching guys who were all supposed to be better than ABreu by now get hurt and under perform all the time ? Now you want another one who will cost more than he's actually worth because he was once an MVP ?  We had an MVP and he was still the best player on the team and we aren't keeping him.

I have no idea what signing Bellinger actually accomplishes.

When a guy has been so bad with a top organization known for finding guys and making them better, couldn't make Bellinger any better and the organization you want to sign him is known for not developing players and getting all kinds of injuries to their young core players so often that most of them have never had a good full season, that's bad money after bad.

Plus you want to get into some kind of bidding war for him ?  Where's the money coming from to make the pitching staff better ? We can point out flaws in every scenario for this year based on money supposedly available and cost to sign or trade guys.

Again I don't see anything controversial about wanting young guys with good skills. Every player on the Sox has plenty of flaws too but what most of them don't have are defensive skills ,speed, power ,small contracts and 6 years of eligibility.

Edited November 21, 2022 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

25 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The point I’m making is it’s rather unlikely guys like Garrett or Outman are serious ROY candidates like you make them. And never believe a September call ups stats. Good or bad. Plus both of these guys played in hitters paradises in the minors in 2022. So those numbers are a big inflated. Plus they are both slightly older. About the same age Moncada was during Covid. 

They're are just as good of ROY candidates as Colas might be. I don't know what odds I'd put on it.

There are only so many ways to assess young talent without actually seeing them in person and that is stats from the minors and time in the majors. That's all I got sorry. And they did good at both . If they had sucked at one or the other I'd be hearing about that too. Actually I am hearing about it with K rates, walk %. I can rattle off how bad Bellinger has been too over and over. His start line was pretty similar to Billy Hamiltons in 2021 except Bellinger had way more AB's but BA, OBP, SLG ,OPS all quite similar.

Still don't get what you guys have against youth. Everyone wanted a rebuild to get a lot of youth and the system sucks now and all that youth is either always injured or sucking getting paid more than they are worth. If I have to trade Romy or Burger to get Garrett whats the big deal ?

If I have to trade Hendriks+/- to get Outman +/- so what. Might free up more money to get Bellinger or improve the starting pitching .

Edited November 21, 2022 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[southsider2k5]

 

[2Deep]

If we want a Left Handed RF/LF with power and plus defense Isn't Gallo a better fit?  Gallo also walks a TON, something we lack.

[bmags]

14 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Not all are available? All we do off season is suggest trades and signing guys who aren't available. I would think that minor league guys and DFA candidates are a lot more attainable than Bellinger given the new restraints .

I'm not thinking playoffs I'm thinking younger. Aren't you sick of watching guys who were all supposed to be better than ABreu by now get hurt and under perform all the time ? Now you want another one who will cost more than he's actually worth because he was once an MVP ?  We had an MVP and he was still the best player on the team and we aren't keeping him.

I have no idea what signing Bellinger actually accomplishes.

When a guy has been so bad with a top organization known for finding guys and making them better, couldn't make Bellinger any better and the organization you want to sign him is known for not developing players and getting all kinds of injuries to their young core players so often that most of them have never had a good full season, that's bad money after bad.

Plus you want to get into some kind of bidding war for him ?  Where's the money coming from to make the pitching staff better ? We can point out flaws in every scenario for this year based on money supposedly available and cost to sign or trade guys.

Again I don't see anything controversial about wanting young guys with good skills. Every player on the Sox has plenty of flaws too but what most of them don't have are defensive skills ,speed, power ,small contracts and 6 years of eligibility.

I'm saying one is a free agent, so it may be the case that a James Outman is more attainable than the salary Bellinger gets, it's no sure thing, and may come at the cost of a Major League asset we'd need to offset or a strong minor league package. The dodgers outfield isn't particularly crowded

While it's true the dodgers are "giving" up on Bellinger, the context is that his MVP season made his price tag in arbitration quite high while he is still working through issues, and the Dodgers are in a position with their slaaries where they don't need to take the risk on a bounce back.

There's nothing wrong with taking a chance on younger guys just Bellinger is pretty young and has a lot of the qualities you've mentioned. He may have a heavy market right now, or we may just be hearing Boras' b.s.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, 2Deep said:

If we want a Left Handed RF/LF with power and plus defense Isn't Gallo a better fit?  Gallo also walks a TON, something we lack.

A quick check of OAA finds that Gallo is an "ok" outfielder while Bellinger is a strong defensive CF. If having a second person who can play CF is important to the White Sox, then that does create a fit for Bellinger that Gallo can't match.

[bmags]

Gallo has really started to slow down. Could probably still be plus in our corner outfields.

It's not a bad idea if you think the shift ending will help gallo. His whiff rate was insane though but he does still hit the crap out of the ball.

[Dick Allen]

22 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

They're are just as good of ROY candidates as Colas might be. I don't know what odds I'd put on it.

There are only so many ways to assess young talent without actually seeing them in person and that is stats from the minors and time in the majors. That's all I got sorry. And they did good at both . If they had sucked at one or the other I'd be hearing about that too. Actually I am hearing about it with K rates, walk %. I can rattle off how bad Bellinger has been too over and over. His start line was pretty similar to Billy Hamiltons in 2021 except Bellinger had way more AB's but BA, OBP, SLG ,OPS all quite similar.

Still don't get what you guys have against youth. Everyone wanted a rebuild to get a lot of youth and the system sucks now and all that youth is either always injured or sucking getting paid more than they are worth. If I have to trade Romy or Burger to get Garrett whats the big deal ?

If I have to trade Hendriks+/- to get Outman +/- so what. Might free up more money to get Bellinger or improve the starting pitching .

Colas is much higher ranked and younger than either. Outman is the 13th ranked Dodgers prospect. Garrett can’t even stick on the DBacks 40. If you traded Burger or Hendriks for them, you’ve been had. I do think trading Hendriks makes sense, but for real prospects. If Hahn wanted these guys for Charlotte, I have no complaints, but chances are they are guys that will be appealing to the Pacific Rim soon.

[Bob Sacamano]

7 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Colas is much higher ranked and younger than either. Outman is the 13th ranked Dodgers prospect. Garrett can’t even stick on the DBacks 40. If you traded Burger or Hendriks for them, you’ve been had. I do think trading Hendriks makes sense, but for real prospects. If Hahn wanted these guys for Charlotte, I have no complaints, but chances are they are guys that will be appealing to the Pacific Rim soon.

Yeah, I think they would be interesting for depth. But not banking on either of those guys being starting players.

Edit: they would be more interesting than Adam Haseley.

Edited November 21, 2022 by Bob Sacamano

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

That was before Pollock opted out.

It's a bit complicated to figure out the exact number as "how do you book Pollock's buyout, in 2022 or 2023" matters and that was paid in early November. But, if I assume it counts as part of the 2023 payroll, they are in the low $160s assuming MLBTradeRumors arbitration estimates. That leaves nearly $20 million to get to a $180 million payroll.

If they did the bookkeeping such that Pollock's bonus counts as part of the 2022 payroll, then they could have just under $25 million to get to $180 million. 

So it's not a lot, but it's not quite as tiny as what you said. 

I thought they were at $173M including Pollock. So then when Pollock opted out that would put them at $165M. That's an increase of only $3M from what I thought. 

So, then that would leave them $15M to play around with. In that case, any upgrades whatsoever would have to come from trades for pre-arb or arb 1 players. 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

45 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A quick check of OAA finds that Gallo is an "ok" outfielder while Bellinger is a strong defensive CF. If having a second person who can play CF is important to the White Sox, then that does create a fit for Bellinger that Gallo can't match.

Can't Leury cover CF when Robert sits?  Now if Robert has a serious injury and is out weeks at a time... eeeeek

[Jack Parkman]

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/payroll/2023/

 

Is the $180M budget in real dollars or in Luxury Tax dollars? 

If it's in real dollars, then they might be ok. If it's in luxury tax dollars, the offseason looks pretty grim.

 

Real dollars: 22.5M to play around with

Luxury Tax dollars: $6.5M to play around with (!!!!!) not good.  

Edited November 21, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Can't Leury cover CF when Robert sits?  Now if Robert has a serious injury and is out weeks at a time... eeeeek

Do you really think anyone here has any confidence in Leury as the main backup plan in CF for Robert? 

[Bob Sacamano]

7 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Can't Leury cover CF when Robert sits?  Now if Robert has a serious injury and is out weeks at a time... eeeeek

Colas can even cover CF when Robert needs a day off.

Edited November 21, 2022 by Bob Sacamano

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, Bob Sacamano said:

Colas can even cover CF when Robert needs a day off.

Yeah Colas got adequate to good reports as a CF from scouts this year. 

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I thought they were at $173M including Pollock. So then when Pollock opted out that would put them at $165M. That's an increase of only $3M from what I thought. 

So, then that would leave them $15M to play around with. In that case, any upgrades whatsoever would have to come from trades for pre-arb or arb 1 players. 

Here's the tricks.

1. It was closer to $170 million with the MLBTR numbers. $173 was a little high. I came up with $171 and I think I included Mendick in there. 

2. If Pollock opting out saves them $8 million, that leaves them in the low $160s. That leaves them near $20 million to spend.

3. That $170 number includes "$720 k for each player to fill out the roster." If you assume that a couple of those guys are Free agent/Trade guys, then in reality you've basically got $20 million to spend to get to $180 million because that's money you're spending either way.

4. Pollock's $5 million buyout could be booked in either 2022 or 2023. We don't know whether the White Sox are counting that in the "$180 million" we were quoted or not. It is entirely possible that they meant "$180 million for 2023 after we pay Pollock's opt out as part of our 2022 spending", and if that were the case that leaves them a little more space to get up to $25 million.  

[Colome's Hat]

10 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/payroll/2023/

 

Is the $180M budget in real dollars or in Luxury Tax dollars? 

If it's in real dollars, then they might be ok. If it's in luxury tax dollars, the offseason looks pretty grim.

 

Real dollars: 22.5M to play around with

Luxury Tax dollars: $6.5M to play around with (!!!!!) not good.  

I think they have resigned themselves to going over the luxury tax.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

Colas is much higher ranked and younger than either. Outman is the 13th ranked Dodgers prospect. Garrett can’t even stick on the DBacks 40. If you traded Burger or Hendriks for them, you’ve been had. I do think trading Hendriks makes sense, but for real prospects. If Hahn wanted these guys for Charlotte, I have no complaints, but chances are they are guys that will be appealing to the Pacific Rim soon.

I was just told a few pages back that Burger would never be a good fielding 3rd baseman and now you're getting "had" if you trade him for a DFA guy who can run, defense and hit for power  who's about a 100 days older than Burger ? C'mon now, this is getting silly squabbling over a minor league depth transaction. Yes I said depth because I've said it other posts on the subject too.

I did say Outman for Hendriks . But I told the guy who responded to that by telling him he was taking me too literally and then said Hendriks+/- for Outman +/- .

I do have to assume you don't want to see , Sheets, Vaughn or Eloy in the OF again so where are our OF's going to come from with our money tied up in projects we already have ?

Yeesh all this for wanting a couple of minor leaguers but MLB ready OFs who have nice skills.

You would think I was actually saying something controversial like signing an even older player who's had 3 straight bad years for 2years $25M  so it wasn't possible to upgrade the pitching very much.

Like it or not we're pretty much stuck with hoping from better years from our unhealthy and backwards sliding projects and hoping a trade or 2 can free up a little money and get some starting pitching while actually looking for some youth to help like Cleveland did and like TB always does.Championship teams do seem to have a nice surplus of SP available usually.

If the Sox sign any position player for $10M+ and multiple years I'd be shocked.

Edited November 21, 2022 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

 

From MLB Pipeline late season 2022

 

James

Outman

OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

James Outman.

 

 

• AGE
  25
• BATS
  L
• DOB
  05/14/1997
• THROWS
  R
• HT
  6' 3"
• DRAFTED
  2018, 7th (224) - LAD
• WT
  215
• ETA
  2022

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 60 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 50 

Though Outman batted just .249 in three seasons at Sacramento State, the Dodgers bought into his intriguing all-around tools and selected him in the seventh round of the 2018 Draft. He began to break out with 11 homers in the final month of the 2019 season in Low-A and took another step forward in the second half of 2021, batting .297/.392/.568 while advancing to Double-A. He built on that momentum in the Arizona Fall League and claimed a spot on the 40-man roster. 

Outman began to perform better at the plate as he gained a better understanding of his left-handed swing. He still aggressively looks to launch balls to his pull side, but slowing things down enabled him to chase fewer pitches out of the zone and access his plus raw power more consistently. He still strikes out too much to post high batting averages, though he compensates by drawing plenty of walks and hit by pitches. 

One of the best athletes in the system, Outman is a 6-foot-3, 215-pounder with plus speed and arm strength. He has aptitude for stealing bases and swiped 23 in 27 attempts last season. He has instincts to go with his quickness in center field and provides plus defense at any of the three outfield spots. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Do you really think anyone here has any confidence in Leury as the main backup plan in CF for Robert? 

If we had more money to spend I'd love a better backup CF... But that's the problem... Maybe grab Engel on a minors deal if possible.  

[Balta1701]

21 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

If we had more money to spend I'd love a better backup CF... But that's the problem... Maybe grab Engel on a minors deal if possible.  

I know there's only so much that you can do to replace Robert when he gets hurt, but you also have to have a backup plan that is good enough where if Robert, I dunno, hurts his wrist, they're willing to put him on the IL for 15 days to let it heal rather than rushing him back and screwing things up for months. That at least has to be part of it, you can't be in a spot where "I can't afford to not play Robert because my backup options are so bad" becomes a thing. 

I'd say based on very recent history that "Engel, Colas moving over from RF and Sheets playing there for 2 weeks, Leury playing out there" - all of those are pretty darn insufficient. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I know there's only so much that you can do to replace Robert when he gets hurt, but you also have to have a backup plan that is good enough where if Robert, I dunno, hurts his wrist, they're willing to put him on the IL for 15 days to let it heal rather than rushing him back and screwing things up for months. That at least has to be part of it, you can't be in a spot where "I can't afford to not play Robert because my backup options are so bad" becomes a thing. 

I'd say based on very recent history that "Engel, Colas moving over from RF and Sheets playing there for 2 weeks, Leury playing out there" - all of those are pretty darn insufficient. 

Again, we can't solve everything if our owner only allows for a 180 million payroll. Some things will still be severely lacking when said and done.  

[bmags]

Ideally Yeolki Cespedes comes in with some improvement and can be a 4th outfielder. He looks like a good option defensively, just need some offense.