Cody Bellinger to the Cubs

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

That is the lane I picked, but that's not the lane the Sox are going to pick. They're going to try to be as competitive as possible. 

So you think they are going to go after Bellinger ?

[Sarava]

25 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Right now the Sox according to Vegas are the 11th team in line picked to win the World Series. It might get worse during the off season. We need like 8 different key guys to rebound or show improvement health and statistics wise without the others falling off a cliff too.

A lot of guys are coming off career worst years or close to it, whether by performance, health or both. Some won't improve. I think some will. If it exceeds a logically expected outcome, some real good things can happen here.

I also think the removal of Menechino and La Russa will be a big boost.

As bad as last year felt in so many different ways, they still were a .500 team. Every year we see teams make a big jump. The Sox don't even have that big of a jump to make. They're already a .500 team when pretty much everything under the sun went wrong (except Cease).

Again, I'm not saying it's likely. But it's not even likely for the favorite. This team absolutely can win the World Series.

[Sarava]

19 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

So you think they are going to go after Bellinger ?

It would be a very KW-like signing. But I doubt they can fit him in to their reduced payroll.

[Jack Parkman]

32 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

So you think they are going to go after Bellinger ?

No, sadly I think he's too expensive. 

Unless they trade Hendriks pretty much everyone is too expensive. 

They're probably going to have to trade some of their lower level prospects for prospects that are MLB ready or ones that had a bad rookie season. 

If the budget is $195M they have room for 2 FA signings. 

If it's $180? They have $12M in space as we speak. 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 minutes ago, Sarava said:

A lot of guys are coming off career worst years or close to it, whether by performance, health or both. Some won't improve. I think some will. If it exceeds a logically expected outcome, some real good things can happen here.

I also think the removal of Menechino and La Russa will be a big boost.

As bad as last year felt in so many different ways, they still were a .500 team. Every year we see teams make a big jump. The Sox don't even have that big of a jump to make. They're already a .500 team when pretty much everything under the sun went wrong (except Cease).

Again, I'm not saying it's likely. But it's not even likely for the favorite. This team absolutely can win the World Series.

Far be it for me to crush your dreams but I also think it's possible and my way of doing it is taking chances on young guys with speed power and defense and LHness in the OF while at the same time perhaps providing a much needed infusion of energy.it's just better for the future when there's very few MLB ready hitters in the minors outside of Colas. It's not like the Sox had anyone come up for a brief while last year and produce .5 War in a 4 game and 27 game sample size while at the same time tearing up AAA like Outman and Garrett did.

If the Sox had a couple player do what Outman and Garrett did last year everyone would be thrilled with it. Instead we get people here saying Garrett was DFA'd, Outman's a 4th OF type according to BA and they K too much Well yea tha'ts why teams have to scout and make the hard choices. Garrett hit a couple of HR's of Cease and Rodon. The best hitters can hit those hangers for HR's . That's what power guys do and they are good fielders too. I want to surround Robert with other young players who have a chance to be good players. I know they might not end up that way but you have to get skilled players into your system. Our near MLB ready talent pipeline among position players with good potential is Colas and Sosa. The farm system is trashed at the upper level and isnt that much better between the DSL and AA.

 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

1 hour ago, Sarava said:

It would be a very KW-like signing. But I doubt they can fit him in to their reduced payroll.

Not only that, but do we really think Bellinger has any interest in coming to the Sox? If half the league is in on him, we all know the Sox aren't providing him the best offer, so he's literally have to choose to play here. I see zero reason Chicago would top his list other than pot being legal.

[ShoeLessRob]

Would be a terrible allocation of an already limited payroll… sounds like a Sox move. 

[Dick Allen]

8 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Far be it for me to crush your dreams but I also think it's possible and my way of doing it is taking chances on young guys with speed power and defense and LHness in the OF while at the same time perhaps providing a much needed infusion of energy.it's just better for the future when there's very few MLB ready hitters in the minors outside of Colas. It's not like the Sox had anyone come up for a brief while last year and produce .5 War in a 4 game and 27 game sample size while at the same time tearing up AAA like Outman and Garrett did.

If the Sox had a couple player do what Outman and Garrett did last year everyone would be thrilled with it. Instead we get people here saying Garrett was DFA'd, Outman's a 4th OF type according to BA and they K too much Well yea tha'ts why teams have to scout and make the hard choices. Garrett hit a couple of HR's of Cease and Rodon. The best hitters can hit those hangers for HR's . That's what power guys do and they are good fielders too. I want to surround Robert with other young players who have a chance to be good players. I know they might not end up that way but you have to get skilled players into your system. Our near MLB ready talent pipeline among position players with good potential is Colas and Sosa. The farm system is trashed at the upper level and isnt that much better between the DSL and AA.

 

The Sox did have that in 2007. Josh Fields and Jerry Owens had huge Septembers leading the Sox out of the Buster Posey sweepstakes. They did the predictable thing the next season.

[bmags]

11 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

It wouldn't even be good money after bad. It'd be bad money after bad. I'd rather take my chances with the 3 AAA OF's. Colas,  people here like Outman, and Garret should be given a shot. They will be flying around the OF ,bashing HR's ,flying around the bases and bringing energy to this team which is what Grifol wants.

Defense, power, base running and best of all 6 years apiece for all 3 of them ! Outman and Garrett had great AAA seasons. Colas looks pretty ready to go himself. 2 lefty bashers and 1 RH basher who play good defense too. It's what we've been wanting for 2 years and now people want a $10M retread instead because he's a "name" player with an MVP in 2019?

  That's $2.16M for 3 guys who run and hit and defend right up there with Bellinger without the age or accumulated injuries or salary vs. $10M for 1 guy who's had 3 straight blah seasons since he blew out his shoulder. They also have a chance to out perform Bellinger with the bat too.

I don't get it.

$2.16M for money but not all are available so you are talking about holes elsewhere or prospects. James Outman is 25, Stone Garrett is 26, Bellinger is only 27. Outman also struck out 150 times in between AA and AAA, that's about the same swing-and-miss as Bellinger in the majors. Garrett hits RH.

He also is good defensively and is fast. He's left handed.

That doesn't sound like bad money after bad. It's risky during a contention window due to the lower guarantee of production, but that is the case with the others.

[hogan873]

Sounds like there is a lot of interest by multiple teams.  I imagine he'll sign somewhere other than the Sox for an amount that half of Soxtalk will be angry that the Sox didn't spend.  He'll then have a decent season with his new team, causing much teeth gnashing and fist shaking.

I do believe he'll play better wherever he ends up.  I don't think he'll ever return to what he was in 2019, but a change of scenery could allow him to get some of that magic back.  I honestly don't know what to think about what he might end up signing for.  If I had to guess, I'd say a one year deal for $12-$14 million with a team option for a second year.

[joejoesox]

9 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Not only that, but do we really think Bellinger has any interest in coming to the Sox? If half the league is in on him, we all know the Sox aren't providing him the best offer, so he's literally have to choose to play here. I see zero reason Chicago would top his list other than pot being legal.

Doesnt the MLB have a league wide rule against using any federally scheduled drug? 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I still prefer Conforto to Bellinger, but Bellinger also makes a lot of sense.

[Bob Sacamano]

I'd rather have more of a sure thing than just "he plays great defense and runs fast." There's guys out there that they can pay a fraction of the price that can play defense and run fast. I get you are paying for the potential in the bat, but it's kinda silly to cite defense and speed as reasons you want him here when others can do that.

Edit: that said, I don't think he signs here and goes somewhere where he will play CF while he tries to rebuild value with the bat.

Edited November 21, 2022 by Bob Sacamano

[Harold's Leg Lift]

I think they should try something new like getting a player that is actually good (Bryan Reynolds) instead of a player that is bad (Cody Bellinger) that they hope will be good but will likely remain bad. 

[Quin]

48 minutes ago, joejoesox said:

Doesnt the MLB have a league wide rule against using any federally scheduled drug? 

Seems to be "don't show up high."

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28804440/mlb-players-subject-penalty-using-pot

[chw42]

1 minute ago, Quin said:

Seems to be "don't show up high."

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28804440/mlb-players-subject-penalty-using-pot

Cody was high for the entirety of the 2020 playoffs and he did just fine!

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I think they should try something new like getting a player that is actually good (Bryan Reynolds) instead of a player that is bad (Cody Bellinger) that they hope will be good but will likely remain bad. 

Well one is a free agent and the other will be wanted by more than one team and you've called this farm trash.

I think we should get Julio Rodriguez. Guy seems really good. Way better than Bellinger.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

I think we should get Julio Rodriguez. Guy seems really good. Way better than Bellinger.

I like the way you think.

[Quin]

23 minutes ago, bmags said:

Well one is a free agent and the other will be wanted by more than one team and you've called this farm trash.

I think we should get Julio Rodriguez. Guy seems really good. Way better than Bellinger.

 [insert Kelenic joke]

[Jack Parkman]

32 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I think they should try something new like getting a player that is actually good (Bryan Reynolds) instead of a player that is bad (Cody Bellinger) that they hope will be good but will likely remain bad. 

They don't have the pieces for Reynolds. 

[Dick Allen]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

They don't have the pieces for Reynolds. 

They have the pieces. I bet Colas and Montgomery, if it didn’t get it done, would be close. I wouldn’t do it. We have to hope Colas is real. If he is, that helps with a few issues.

[Balta1701]

12 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

No, sadly I think he's too expensive. 

Unless they trade Hendriks pretty much everyone is too expensive. 

They're probably going to have to trade some of their lower level prospects for prospects that are MLB ready or ones that had a bad rookie season. 

If the budget is $195M they have room for 2 FA signings. 

If it's $180? They have $12M in space as we speak. 

I think it is closer to $20 million at the minimum, if the budget is $180 million. Adding only $12 million should leave them with a payroll below $175 million. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

They don't have the pieces for Reynolds. 

Sure they do and Reynolds is just one example.  There's lots of good players they should be targeting.  

[Jack Parkman]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think it is closer to $20 million at the minimum, if the budget is $180 million. Adding only $12 million should leave them with a payroll below $175 million. 

Aren't they at $168M with arb estimates even with the non-tenders? 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Aren't they at $168M with arb estimates even with the non-tenders? 

That was before Pollock opted out.

It's a bit complicated to figure out the exact number as "how do you book Pollock's buyout, in 2022 or 2023" matters and that was paid in early November. But, if I assume it counts as part of the 2023 payroll, they are in the low $160s assuming MLBTradeRumors arbitration estimates. That leaves nearly $20 million to get to a $180 million payroll.

If they did the bookkeeping such that Pollock's bonus counts as part of the 2022 payroll, then they could have just under $25 million to get to $180 million. 

So it's not a lot, but it's not quite as tiny as what you said.