Mike Clevinger to Sox per Rosenthal

[joejoesox]

I'll wager a guess that Cueto will get more/year than Clevinger did

Maybe not more years but more dollars per

[Bob Sacamano]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I have to imagine he is looking for somewhere around double that, and he is looking for a promised starting slot.  No reason he shouldn't be demanding at least that.

Yeah. Plenty of rebuilding teams could use the innings in their rotation.

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

If someone offers more than $5m for Cueto I wouldn't match it, but if he can be had for that much I'd certainly snag him to be the swing man.

If the price for Cueto and Clevinger was the same, I would probably have gone with Cueto. Cueto was better last year, threw notably more innings, regularly went deeper into games, and his pitching style is more of a contrast with the other fastball heavy guys in the rotation.

My impression of Hahn is that he would make exactly the opposite choice.

[Bob Sacamano]

If Cueto gets more, this is fine. I wouldn't want to gamble on his age 37 season.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

If Cueto gets more, this is fine. I wouldn't want to gamble on his age 37 season.

Cueto has definitely had an injury history longer than Clevinger’s career. Last year was his first healthy season in a long time. But, he also was more effective last year and would have been even better had he not wore out at the end of the year when he threw 150 innings for the first time in forever. It’s certainly not out of the question that he could put up a 4 win, 175 inning season next year just by strengthening his arm in 2022. It’s also not out of the question that he could be out for the season before April begins. 

On the other hand, Clevinger has a very long history of injury, but he is also at the point in the third year post TJS where hopefully his arm has finished recovery. It’s not out of the question that he could be past the injuries and come out with a really good season that leaves him as a #2 starter by the end of the year. It also wouldn’t be surprising if he was in the IL on opening day either. 

Maybe slightly higher ceiling for Clevinger, but similar floor for both, and maybe Cueto seems a little more likely to be good overall to me based on last year?

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I’m just saying add depth: guys with options off waivers or free agency, maybe if there’s a swing-man they can add to the pen that can make starts, etc.

I still think a cheap swingman with a guaranteed deal is possible.

[The Kids Can Play]

On 11/26/2022 at 11:43 AM, bmags said:

Sale, Quintana, Eaton

Normally they don't, but 2016 the year you are referring to, was an exception and aberration for the Sox front office and owner. That is now the infamous rebuild and tear down. Of course when you do a total rebuild as that Hahn deemed it, you trade all your top assets at their peak. Hence why Sale, Eaton and Quintana brought us what looked at the time, to be a good haul of players. As hindsight is always 20-20, it obviously has not worked out as well as it should have.

Edited November 28, 2022 by The Kids Can Play

[Chicago White Sox]

53 minutes ago, joejoesox said:

idk about Giolito, the more I think about it, his velocity loss is pretty concerning 

Is that mechanics driven though and therefore correctable?  I’m not sure why else he’d suddenly lose velocity at his age short of suffering a major injury that we’re unaware of.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Is that mechanics driven though and therefore correctable?  I’m not sure why else he’d suddenly lose velocity at his age short of suffering a major injury that we’re unaware of.

I can't help but wonder if his conditioning last year cost him some of his flexibility. 

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

I can't help but wonder if his conditioning last year cost him some of his flexibility. 

100% my theory as well.  Added muscle hurt his flexibility and made the repeatability of mechanics more challenging.

[Quin]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

100% my theory as well.  Added muscle hurt his flexibility and made the repeatability of mechanics more challenging.

 

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I can't help but wonder if his conditioning last year cost him some of his flexibility. 

There's a non-zero chance that losing Katz for the offseason hurt him.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Quin said:

 

There's a non-zero chance that losing Katz for the offseason hurt him.

I think there was a fair amount of progress lost by players not having normal winters and/or springs for three years now.

[pcq]

3 hours ago, hogan873 said:

Clevinger is a fine addition to fill out the rotation.  Even if he gives the team 5-6 innings every outing and sports an ERA around 4.0, he's worth the $8 million or so.  I think he could be better than that and may well surprise a lot of people.

If Giolito can improve a bit (and not necessarily return to form) and Lynn can stay healthy, this is a very good rotation.

Now, go out and get a LH hitting outfielder who can hit for power.

The comments on Gio were inspired by decreased velocity and spin, and decreased effectiveness with one year to go. Gio plays hardball with money so I do not expect he is a good financial fit for the home team. Use him to get a good hitter and spend a little more dough on Q or Cueto. Not too crazy I would think.

[The Kids Can Play]

On 11/26/2022 at 6:17 PM, pettie4sox said:

Just sign Bauer.

Read the warning sign on Bauer: Beware of psycho nutjobs who are domestic violence abusers. They can be harmful  and toxic to your clubhouse culture.

Our team culture and attitude already needs major fixing, which hopefully Grifol will fix! Bauer however is not a solution to improve this team attitude and culture, regardless of his immense pitching talent.

[ChiSox59]

11 minutes ago, pcq said:

The comments on Gio were inspired by decreased velocity and spin, and decreased effectiveness with one year to go. Gio plays hardball with money so I do not expect he is a good financial fit for the home team. Use him to get a good hitter and spend a little more dough on Q or Cueto. Not too crazy I would think.

I think expecting to turn Gio into a player that can meaningfully contribute to the 2023 roster is optimistic.   Gio should have some surplus value, but no one is handing you a young controllable MLB bat with upside for 1 year of Giolito slightly at maybe 75% of market value.  

Think like the Sox acquiring Lynn for Dunning.  That's the type of deal we'd be looking at talent-wise, best case scenario (someone controllable perhaps, but with limited upside or other warts).  I don't think that makes the Sox any better for 2023.  Not to mention, it actually increases payroll slightly, and makes the rotation worse with less upside.  

Edited November 28, 2022 by ChiSox59

[pcq]

1 hour ago, Chimpton said:

I'm thinking of next season when age and his lack of general fitness likely to catch up with him even more.

If we are relying on a whole season out of him and expecting him to pitch at a good level throughout, then I think that is optimistic. There is a risk he will start falling off a cliff like Keuchel did.

It's hard to exercise just because you make millions in part because of your physical health and ability. Lance is a good egg but will likely shorten his career due to lack of fitness. Bartolo, Lolich and Forster might say otherwise.

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Exactly.  They signed a guy who has zero chance of being as good as the guy was he's replacing.  What else ya got, Hahn. 

Wait, what??  Zero chance that Clevinger is better than Cueto next year? That's one of the most ridiculous things I've ever read.

EDIT:  I suppose you mean that Clevinger's 2023 has no chance of being better than Cueto's 2022.  Not as ridiculous as I first thought, but still a pretty crazy claim. 

Edited November 28, 2022 by SoxBlanco

[Chisoxfn]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

What i don't get is every White Sox who sucked last year, will never reach his potential and needs to go, but Clevinger is a great pick up. He, of course , will return to form. 

Face facts, the Sox signed him because he potentially can be really good. Another year removed from TJ surgery can help, but most importantly, he was cheap.

The Sox season is going to come down to whether the guys they were counting on last year - bounce back and play much closer to what the Sox were expecting (or if those guys are moved - they are replaced with guys who do more what the Sox were expecting).

In particular - Robert, Jimenez, Moncada, Timmy from a position standpoint. I  will ignore Grandal cause he seems to have aged / had injuries get in the way of what the Sox should be expecting.  

They also have to replace Pollock (good thing is he severely underperformed so they aren't replacing a big hole) + Abreu (who was as always if nothing else - solid).  

[Highland]

6 minutes ago, pcq said:

It's hard to exercise just because you make millions in part because of your physical health and ability. Lance is a good egg but will likely shorten his career due to lack of fitness. Bartolo, Lolich and Forster might say otherwise.

One of my lasting memories of 2022 is Lynn limping around the infield during his last start. Couldn't over to first to get a throw. Still has his stuff, but I wonder about his knees.

[SoxBlanco]

2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Exactly.  They signed a guy who has zero chance of being as good as the guy was he's replacing.  What else ya got, Hahn. 

I replied to this already, but I have a question for you:

Who was/is more likely to have a 3.5 win season? Cueto heading into the 2022 season, or Clevinger heading into the 2023 season?

[hi8is]

9 hours ago, scotty22hotty said:

2 tommy johns and injury prone 32 year old. Surprised Haun couldn't find a better #5 solution in-house... The sad part is clevinger is probably now the #4 ahead of kopech.

Still a massive hole at LF, yet Haun spends 1/4th the budget on a gamble lol. But nice of Haun to double this guys retirement fund I guess.

Huh - didn’t know he’s had two Tommy John’s.

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Wait, what??  Zero chance that Clevinger is better than Cueto next year? That's one of the most ridiculous things I've ever read.

EDIT:  I suppose you mean that Clevinger's 2023 has no chance of being better than Cueto's 2022.  Not as ridiculous as I first thought, but still a pretty crazy claim. 

To finish the important part here, there is about zero chance that Cueto's 23 is as good as his 22.  The last time Cueto was this good was 2016.  What is crazy is that Cueto's 2022 saw an insanely low HR rate despite his K rate being the lowest of his entire career.  It was also the first time he has been over 140 innings since 2016.  There are a lot of red flags here screaming fluke.

[T R U]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

To finish the important part here, there is about zero chance that Cueto's 23 is as good as his 22.  The last time Cueto was this good was 2016.  What is crazy is that Cueto's 2022 saw an insanely low HR rate despite his K rate being the lowest of his entire career.  It was also the first time he has been over 140 innings since 2016.  There are a lot of red flags here screaming fluke.

He really started to fold the last month of the season. If were going to spend 8-10 million on an arm for the back of the rotation I would rather go with the younger, upside player.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

39 minutes ago, pcq said:

The comments on Gio were inspired by decreased velocity and spin, and decreased effectiveness with one year to go. Gio plays hardball with money so I do not expect he is a good financial fit for the home team. Use him to get a good hitter and spend a little more dough on Q or Cueto. Not too crazy I would think.

Trading GIolito now would be a mistake. At this point, you ride with him and hope he bounces back and if he walks he walks. 

Gio had a down year, but he was also one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball, if not the unluckiest. His FIP was still sitting right around 4. his xFIP was 3.66, his BABIP against was 340. Some of the home run issues were self inflicted, sure... he made a lot of bad pitches, but those aren't always going to get hit out. I think a little change to his sequencing, a little work on his slider/curve in the off-season, and expecting him to come back as a 3.5-3.6 FIP/ERA guy next year is much more likely than him having a 4.9 ERA again imo.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, T R U said:

He really started to fold the last month of the season. If were going to spend 8-10 million on an arm for the back of the rotation I would rather go with the younger, upside player.

For the record, since 2017, which includes Clevingers last TJS, Johnny Cueto has put up 7.8 WAR, or 1.3 per season. Clevinger has put up 14.2, or about 2.5 including the seasons he missed due to his surgery.  During that time frame he has put up two seasons with a higher WAR than Cueto did in 2022 at his recent peak.