Mike Clevinger to Sox per Rosenthal

[ChiSox59]

4 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

I can't believe people are this passionate about Cueto. He's a guy. 

Same people that are passionate about the 6 weeks we got from Elvis Andrus. 

[4uckOffCommieScum]

6 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

I can't believe people are this passionate about Cueto. He's a guy. 

I’m not passionate about Cueto. I meant that I’d even take Cueto over Clevinger, not that I particularly want Cueto.

[southsider2k5]

30 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Cueto was literally awful since 2016. The Sox got incredibly lucky with him. Betting on him to repeat that success is insanely stupid. If we could sign him on the cheap, ya sure. But he’s probably going to get at least $7-10M, and rightfully so - he earned it. But adding him now is not in the budget and would have been an awful gamble. I’d much rather bet on Clevinger for 23 than Johnny.

Yeah I mean I can't say that Clevinger is the answer, but I sure don't think Cueto is it either.  I mean I guess he could have jumping into the Jaime Moyer fountain of youth, but the odds are pretty high that it was a fluke.

[2Deep]

23 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Same people that are passionate about the 6 weeks we got from Elvis Andrus. 

I've heard a lot of chatter from White Sox fans about having Andrus play 2nd base next year.........

Have people looked up what he did from 2020-2022 while he as on the A's???  He just happened to catch fire after being traded to White Sox for 40 games.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Dumb question, but what is the average age of a pitcher’s 2nd TJS?  Is it possible that it simply typically coexists with an aging pitcher who was already losing effectiveness?

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, 2Deep said:

I've heard a lot of chatter from White Sox fans about having Andrus play 2nd base next year.........

Have people looked up what he did from 2020-2022 while he as on the A's???  He just happened to catch fire after being traded to White Sox for 40 games.

 

Player 1 or Player 2?

.255/.302/.360/.662 

.253/.293/.350/.644

Player 1 is Elvis from 2018 to 2021.  Player 2 is Leury Garcia's career numbers.

 

[southsider2k5]

The White Sox "set the market"? 

 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The White Sox "set the market"? 

 

Wow... This makes even more excited that we got Clevinger for 12 when s%*# Boyd got 10..

[Chisoxfn]

11 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The White Sox "set the market"? 

 

$10M for a guy with a 4.90 ERA over 145 starts. Man this is like giving Vince Velasquez 10M per year.  I get it - he has 130 innings split over 2 years that have been way better than the rest of his career - but its still just a handful of starts in each of those seasons, so SSS.  

I never understood Velasquez and this feels that way when you put the $10M on it.  

[ChiSox59]

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The White Sox "set the market"? 

 

THis is not directed at you SS2k, but people comping the Clevinger and Boyd deals in terms of "value" are nuts.

Boyd and Clevinger are exact same age. 

Boyd's career: 4.90 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 9.3 fWAR (797 IP)...only pitched 13 innigns in 2022, and zero starts.  Has made only 27 starts since 2019. 

Clevinger career: 3.39 ERA, 4.0 FIP, 12.1 fWAR (656 IP)...pitched 113 innings in 2022 of with 4.33 ERA coming of 2nd TJS.  

Clevinger at $12M >>>>> Boyd at $10M

[Balta1701]

20 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

THis is not directed at you SS2k, but people comping the Clevinger and Boyd deals in terms of "value" are nuts.

Boyd and Clevinger are exact same age. 

Boyd's career: 4.90 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 9.3 fWAR (797 IP)...only pitched 13 innigns in 2022, and zero starts.  Has made only 27 starts since 2019. 

Clevinger career: 3.39 ERA, 4.0 FIP, 12.1 fWAR (656 IP)...pitched 113 innings in 2022 of with 4.33 ERA coming of 2nd TJS.  

Clevinger at $12M >>>>> Boyd at $10M

You've got Boyd having made 27 starts since 2019, Clevinger has 30. You've got Boyd's 4.66 career FIP noted on there but you didn't note that Clevinger's was 4.98 last year and he's projected for 4.57 next year compared to a 4.20 FIP projected for Boyd. They probably also are looking at Boyd's solid bullpen performance last year while they're at it and thinking that could be an option for them as well.

This is way closer than "Nuts", the projection setups literally say "Clevinger will pitch 25 more innings next year but Boyd will be more effective per inning so they're both 1.2-1.3 WAR pitchers". Which of those projections is nuts? 

[ChiSox59]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You've got Boyd having made 27 starts since 2019, Clevinger has 30. You've got Boyd's 4.66 career FIP noted on there but you didn't note that Clevinger's was 4.98 last year and he's projected for 4.57 next year compared to a 4.20 FIP projected for Boyd. They probably also are looking at Boyd's solid bullpen performance last year while they're at it and thinking that could be an option for them as well.

This is way closer than "Nuts", the projection setups literally say "Clevinger will pitch 25 more innings next year but Boyd will be more effective per inning so they're both 1.2-1.3 WAR pitchers". Which of those projections is nuts? 

The fact that Clevinger has been a meaningfully better pitcher in his career than Boyd.  Clevinger made 22 starts last year, Boyd 0.  Expecting Boyd to provide 125+ innings in 23 after pitching 13 in 2022 is nuts.  

[4uckOffCommieScum]

Does this mean Quintana will get 25 million per?

[Chicago White Sox]

17 minutes ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

Does this mean Quintana will get 25 million per?

No

[4uckOffCommieScum]

37 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No

Surely one Quintana is worth as much as 2.5 Boyds

[Chisoxfn]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

You've got Boyd having made 27 starts since 2019, Clevinger has 30. You've got Boyd's 4.66 career FIP noted on there but you didn't note that Clevinger's was 4.98 last year and he's projected for 4.57 next year compared to a 4.20 FIP projected for Boyd. They probably also are looking at Boyd's solid bullpen performance last year while they're at it and thinking that could be an option for them as well.

This is way closer than "Nuts", the projection setups literally say "Clevinger will pitch 25 more innings next year but Boyd will be more effective per inning so they're both 1.2-1.3 WAR pitchers". Which of those projections is nuts? 

I don’t know what drove Clevinger to that substantially outperform his peripherals but I do know his era was sub 4 every month of the season but September. Now could it be he just fatigued after the time off - yes. I suppose he could have also fell off a cliff but I have zero clue what projection system gives Boyd so much credit over a very small sample size out of the pen and than extrapolates thay to him starting as much as that when he has been a pure crap starter over a massive sample size (unless he underwent some massive transformation that I am not aware of from a pitch usage velo etc). 
 

Clevinger could suck but he was pretty damn solid last year in that first year back. Sure his arm could re explode but he also could just benefit that much more from a normal offseason after getting back on his feet this year. And it isn’t like his advanced peripherals were down in terms of velocity or other things that would be great imdicatioms of smoke and mirrors.

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

Surely one Quintana is worth as much as 2.5 Boyds

I would definitely bet that Quintana gets a contract with a total worth more than $25 million. 

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I don’t know what drove Clevinger to that substantially outperform his peripherals but I do know his era was sub 4 every month of the season but September. Now could it be he just fatigued after the time off - yes. I suppose he could have also fell off a cliff but I have zero clue what projection system gives Boyd so much credit over a very small sample size out of the pen and than extrapolates thay to him starting as much as that when he has been a pure crap starter over a massive sample size (unless he underwent some massive transformation that I am not aware of from a pitch usage velo etc). 
 

Clevinger could suck but he was pretty damn solid last year in that first year back. Sure his arm could re explode but he also could just benefit that much more from a normal offseason after getting back on his feet this year. And it isn’t like his advanced peripherals were down in terms of velocity or other things that would be great imdicatioms of smoke and mirrors.

Dude, Clevinger's fastball in 2019-2020 was 95.4 and 95.1. Last year it was 93.6, and some got classified as a sinker coming in at 93.2 (maybe a different pitch, maybe the slower of his fastballs confused the computer).

Now it might recover being a full 2 years post TJS, but a 1.5 mph fastball dropoff is pretty clearly a down peripheral. 

Also worth noting that he had the best BABIP of his career, despite the highest FB rate and highest exit velocity given up of his career. Also notable - that high FB rate and high Exit Velocity did translate to more HR, but he still probably got an assist from Petco as well.

Again, I won't suggest that "oh he is doomed", because a full extra offseason post TJS can certainly be huge for a guy and all of these things may well improve next year, but these are pretty clear. 

[Chicago White Sox]

59 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I would definitely bet that Quintana gets a contract with a total worth more than $25 million. 

He said $25M per

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He said $25M per

But then he changed the rules. 

Teams use that second year to spread out the impact and increase the chances of them getting something of value out of the guy. You know that. He will get more than $25 million total rather than a single season amount.

[Chisoxfn]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Dude, Clevinger's fastball in 2019-2020 was 95.4 and 95.1. Last year it was 93.6, and some got classified as a sinker coming in at 93.2 (maybe a different pitch, maybe the slower of his fastballs confused the computer).

Now it might recover being a full 2 years post TJS, but a 1.5 mph fastball dropoff is pretty clearly a down peripheral. 

Also worth noting that he had the best BABIP of his career, despite the highest FB rate and highest exit velocity given up of his career. Also notable - that high FB rate and high Exit Velocity did translate to more HR, but he still probably got an assist from Petco as well.

Again, I won't suggest that "oh he is doomed", because a full extra offseason post TJS can certainly be huge for a guy and all of these things may well improve next year, but these are pretty clear. 

On Clevinger's fastball - it is interesting because his '22 velocity was exactly in line with his '18 and '17 seasons; 19 and 20 is where he saw a jump.  His '18 velocity was 93.5 (vs. '22 of 93.6) while '17 was 92.5.  As you mentioned - a sinker starts show up in his data - was it a new pitch or something else (yet his ground ball ratio didn't change, it decreased slightly if anything - and his line drive rate also went down).  

The one stat that was way different in '22 vs. any past years from Clevinger was that he gave up quite a bit more flyballs than the past.  In '22 his Flyball percentage was 35%. For perspective he never had a season above 25% at any point in his entire career. 

 

Edit: Went to dig into his velocity trend for '22 (thought it was interesting how it dipped later in the season). 

[hi8is]

13 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

On Clevinger's fastball - it is interesting because his '22 velocity was exactly in line with his '18 and '17 seasons; 19 and 20 is where he saw a jump.  His '18 velocity was 93.5 (vs. '22 of 93.6) while '17 was 92.5.  As you mentioned - a sinker starts show up in his data - was it a new pitch or something else (yet his ground ball ratio didn't change, it decreased slightly if anything - and his line drive rate also went down).  

The one stat that was way different in '22 vs. any past years from Clevinger was that he gave up quite a bit more flyballs than the past.  In '22 his Flyball percentage was 35%. For perspective he never had a season above 25% at any point in his entire career. 

 

Edit: Went to dig into his velocity trend for '22 (thought it was interesting how it dipped later in the season). 

Wonder how sticky Clev was. Probably very sticky. ?

[4uckOffCommieScum]

4 hours ago, hi8is said:

Wonder how sticky Clev was. Probably very sticky. ?

No doubt. Particularly considering his pal Trevor was the pioneer

[hi8is]

9 hours ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

No doubt. Particularly considering his pal Trevor was the pioneer

That’s what I’m sayin 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

It may have already been mentioned, but Robert Murray said something about the Clevinger deal not being a straight 1yr/$12M deal. That there is a 2nd year option and with the buyout it will reach $12M. Mentioned something about creatively shifting the money around.

 

So maybe since the first report we heard was "more than $8M" it could end up being something like 1 yr/$8.5M with a 2nd year option for "xxx" amount or a $4M buyout. We might end up with a few extra million for 2023 to work up to Jerry's self-imposed budget.