Jose Abreu in Houston thread

[Balta1701]

33 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Jose usually finishes the year strong, but he was basically a singles hitter last year down the stretch. There are some bad signs, but I think a change of scenery and Houston having better coaches and analytics will help him decline more gracefully. 

His exit velocity the last 4 years:

92.0
92.9 (MVP)
92.0
92.2

His launch angle those years:

10.9
10.9
10.4
8.0

Gosh I can’t figure out what he might need to fix to increase his home run rate or why it went down last year.

[Eminor3rd]

Hurts. Knew it was gonna happen, but still.

I think this was the last free agent signing I was legitimately completely hyped about. The last one where I felt like the Sox were on the right track, making aggressive smart moves.

I know it made sense on paper to move on, but I wish he could have retired here. 

[Lip Man 1]

3 hours ago, joejoesox said:

and they just let their best DH walk

Except he's made it clear going back to the days when Ventura was the manager that he doesn't like to DH.

[ron883]

Bon voyage Jose. I'd imagine he has a swift dropoff ala Albert Pujols on the Angels. 

[Dominikk85]

3 years is a pretty big commitment to an aging slugger. Usually I would give the astros the benefit of doubt as they are one of the smartest orgs but I don't know who actually currently runs the astros since click was let go and I read that crane has become a bit sceptical of new school analytics after the disaster with the luhnow regime. 

So maybe this was a gut driven decision by crane himself? 

I think abreu on a 1 year deal would have been great but in 3 years a lot can go wrong with a mid 30s guy. 

I guess the astros hope that he is at least average (110 wrc+ for a first baseman) for 2 out of the 3 years. 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Dominikk85

[joejoesox]

8 hours ago, The Beast said:

 

And yet the consensus here was to let Abreu walk. Nobody seemed to care about the consequences.

 

I'm with you here but should the Sox have given him 3/60 for his age 37/38/39 years?

one of those shitty situations, even harder decision to make than Rodon last year (Sox should've obv sent him a QO)

[joejoesox]

4 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Except he's made it clear going back to the days when Ventura was the manager that he doesn't like to DH.

will be interesting to see how often he DHs in Houston. If I had to guess, it'll be pretty frequently 

[Texsox]

6 hours ago, ShoeLessRob said:

I would have accepted anything considering we got nothing for letting him walk. 

As the receiving GM how much would you give up? Would you pay his entire prorated salary? Or ask the Sox to pick up some? Toss is a player? 

Likely they would have received literally nothing is return and probably had to pick up some of the contact. 

Then it would have been labeled as White Flag II. 

Smart franchises don't do that. 

[joejoesox]

15 hours ago, hogan873 said:

They didn't lose him.  They chose not to sign him again.  They could have signed him if they wanted to.

I understand needing to make a decision between Jose and Vaughn, unless they were content with having Vaughn play out of position again.  But damn it'll suck to see him in an Astros uniform.

if Vaughn struggles this year while Abreu is killing it, oh man, the fans are gonna lose their s%*#

[Texsox]

17 minutes ago, joejoesox said:

will be interesting to see how often he DHs in Houston. If I had to guess, it'll be pretty frequently 

Really? Do you think they will pick up another 1b or try to resign Gurriel? 

[Dominikk85]

7 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

His exit velocity the last 4 years:

92.0
92.9 (MVP)
92.0
92.2

His launch angle those years:

10.9
10.9
10.4
8.0

Gosh I can’t figure out what he might need to fix to increase his home run rate or why it went down last year.

I think part of the homer decrease was also that the ball was more dead. Regarding launch angle it is important what the reason was. 

 

It could be just a small mechanical tweak and the astros coaches are great at that. 

 

However it also could be physical and age related issues. For example instability and pain in the front leg can lead to a weaker "blocking" and thus body drifting through instead of staying behind the back leg which can cause grounders. 

 

Also the attack angle of the bat gets more upward more out front so if he is late due to declining batspeed his launch angle also could get lower (unless he were to slice the bat under oppo hit balls - which of course wouldn't be a good strategy). 

Regarding exit velo staying the same that could be a good sign but also consider usually low liners are the hardest hit balls so less fly balls could help his average EV a bit. If you look at his peak EV it is still good at 113 but lowest of his career and 2 ticks down from last year. 

He could be already in rather steep decline. 

[The Beast]

2 hours ago, joejoesox said:

I'm with you here but should the Sox have given him 3/60 for his age 37/38/39 years?

one of those shitty situations, even harder decision to make than Rodon last year (Sox should've obv sent him a QO)

I’m not sure if they should have given him that kind of money for those years. The Rodon decision was a dumb one and maybe the Abreu one made more sense. But I remain concerned they won’t improve the roster with acquiring someone to replace Abreu’s production. I’m not sold the internal options will be able to do that yet.

[oldsox]

Jose will go to Hall of Fame after his tour with the Astros.

[Texsox]

22 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Jose will go to Hall of Fame after his tour with the Astros.

I think he'll deserve consideration and probably would be an easy choice if he played four or five more years here instead of Cuba. 

[Timmy U]

19 minutes ago, Texsox said:

I think he'll deserve consideration and probably would be an easy choice if he played four or five more years here instead of Cuba. 

I wonder if voters will consider his time in Cuba. His career there is legendary. One of the best of all time.

[poppysox]

18 hours ago, EloyJenkins said:

Not a popular opinion here...but Vaughn will outplay him by a decent clip over the next 3 years. Sad to see him go...but you HAVE to play your farm guys when they are ready. No more Vaughn in the outfield will be a very good thing 

Yep...and the Jose money is better spent elsewhere.

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, Timmy U said:

I wonder if voters will consider his time in Cuba. His career there is legendary. One of the best of all time.

If we are looking at the totality of his career and not just his MLB time I think he’s a shoe in with todays criteria.  Who knows what the voters will consider though. 

[ron883]

If he had some dignity he would retire on the White Sox. He was more worried about money. Get ready for a steep drop-off in production. 

[gogosox1959]

Keith Law article today in the Athletic.  https://theathletic.com/3946274/2022/11/28/law-astros-jose-abreu

He's negative on the signing.  "The Astros aren’t buying Abreu’s 2022 performance. They’re buying his 2023-2025 performances, and those are extremely likely to be worse, starting in year one and declining sharply from there".

[Eminor3rd]

7 minutes ago, gogosox1959 said:

Keith Law article today in the Athletic.  https://theathletic.com/3946274/2022/11/28/law-astros-jose-abreu

He's negative on the signing.  "The Astros aren’t buying Abreu’s 2022 performance. They’re buying his 2023-2025 performances, and those are extremely likely to be worse, starting in year one and declining sharply from there".

I read that. Law doesn’t come off well on that article. It’s one thing to say the Astro’s made a mistake and that Abreu is cooked, it’s entirely another to say that playing Andrew Vaughn at first base is a “rebuilding team move” and suggesting the Sox might try to sign fucking Josh Bell lmao. 

If you’re a professional pundit and there’s ONE thing you know about white Sox roster, it’s that they’re not in the market for a free agent first baseman. 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Eminor3rd

[Sleepy Harold]

Seems like he wanted out too

[Tnetennba]

 

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Tnetennba said:

 

I wonder if Jerry tried to jump into this?

[BigHurt3515]

I can't believe he was with us for 9 seasons, it doesn't seem that long. But he was a legend, gave it his all every time, and tried to have fun even when we sucked. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

They made Abreu an offer.  Huh.  Isn't that interesting.