2023 White Sox projections

[southsider2k5]

 

[Tnetennba]

10 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

Damn, the Sox non-tendered the next Babe Ruth like it was nothing… ?

[chitownsportsfan]

That's about what you would expect. On paper this is another 84 or so win team.

[Balta1701]

Felt like digging into this a bit more today.

Robert gets 445 PAs and a .793 OPS. That's about exactly where his offense was before playing through the wrist injury dragged him down. So, this is projecting that he is healthy for a much larger portion of the season, although not the full year. Also, about 1/3 of his value comes from his defense, but his defense last year was a negative for him due to a big dropoff in his range after the hip injury, so this is projecting a return to positive defense from him. If that's not the case, then that puts a ceiling on his ability to perform of something like 3-4 WAR if fully healthy. He's got to get defensive value back if he is going to be a 5 WAR/All Star level player, or he's got to hit better than he did pre-injury last year.

Grandal is projected for a .750 OPS and 435 PAs. That's really optimistic based on his .570 OPS and 376 PAs last year, he hasn't had 400+ PAs in a year since Milwaukee.
Zavala gets a .630 OPS projection. So maybe the real catcher's spot is Grandal gets fewer PAs than that, but Zavala has a little bit better performance with the bat.

Moncada .742 OPS, 540 plate appearances. Compared to the .626 OPS last year that's a big improvement, but only gets him up to 2 WAR. 

Eloy, 445 PAs with a .808 OPS. That's kinda splitting 2021 and 2022 on offense, but you definitely hope he can outhit that if he stays healthy. He only had 327 PAs last year, so they have projected better health but not a big boost on offense. 

Vaughn is projected as an average defender, Eloy shows up as far more negative on defense so presumably they have him spending time in LF. Vaughn comes in at a .818 OPS with the team leading 593 PAs. Average defense, a solid OPS, and plays the whole year only gets you 2 WAR out of 1b though.

Sosa is a 1 WAR player with a .662 OPS. Slightly positive defense.

Anderson 476 PAs, .756 OPS. 351 and .734 for him last year, so projecting better health and better offense.

Colas with a .685 OPS.

On the pitching side, Cease is a 3.6 WAR pitcher, he definitely can outdo that but the projection systems are always going to be conservative after breakout years.
Lynn is throwing 131 innings with an ERA of 3.9. Both slightly better than last year.
 

Joe Kelly has a 3.72 ERA. Crochet is listed with 48 innings. 

Lopez with a 4.16 ERA. So ZiPS likes Kelly better than Lopez, lol. 

Giolito throws 160 innings with a 3.9 ERA. 

Kopech throws 110 innings with a 4.24 ERA.

Clevinger, 114 innings with a 4.58 ERA. 

 

Overall, this is a projection that says "In general the White Sox who are here will be mostly healthier than last year and will perform better overall, and that takes them to bein a .500 team again."

You can see a path to them being better than this. Robert's defense is better, Moncada's offense is a little better, Colas hits better than that. Kopech, Clevinger, Cease, Lynn all have upside in the rotation if they stay healthy. Add in an extra 2-WAR outfielder for help somewhere. There's a path here to 90 wins, but it's very much an "Everything goes right" path. They've generally projected better health and better performance from almost the entire lineup already, so there's not a ton of room for guys to dramatically outperform that. There is room for the rotation to dramatically outperform that, but it requires exceptional health from the starters, you can't have Cease get hurt. Everyone stays healthier in the lineup, the rotation performs better than these projections - that's a path to nearly 40 WAR and about 90 wins, which should put them competitive for the playoffs.

A path to below 80 wins? Almost everyone in the lineup is already projected to be healthier and better than last year. They just have to do what they did last year and they're well below .500. 

Looking at this, I'm not sure this team has a path to 100 wins. You need a ROY type season from Colas, an MVP type season from Vaughn, huge seasons from guys in the rotation, Moncada to find his 2019 form or something like that. 

[Balta1701]

The Guardians ZiPS projections article is out today.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-zips-projections-cleveland-guardians/

Quote

Overall, White Sox pitching probably has the higher upside, but the Guardians are better equipped to survive if things go wrong. And with pitchers, things go wrong more often than not. If I were a Sox fan, I’d be a bit worried that the team is missing its moment; Cleveland is now at least Chicago’s equal and has far better reinforcements in the minors.

 

[South Side Hit Men]

22 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

The Guardians ZiPS projections article is out today.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-zips-projections-cleveland-guardians/

 

Even with a couple of down spots in the lineup overall, there aren’t really any gaping holes in Cleveland. The White Sox may regret going into this offseason simply expecting a bounceback season; just as most of Chicago’s offense has worse projections than before 2022, the Guardians’ are largely better. Every good season has some elements of good fortune, but it was a lot more to it than that.

This is true if the Sox do not add a 2B, OF and SP.

Hitting

• C Cleveland +0.9
• 1B Push
• 2B Cleveland + 3.5
• 3B Cleveland + 3.1
• SS White Sox +0.2
• LF Push (Update for 10D)
• CF White Sox +1.8
• RF Cleveland +0.6
• DH Push (Update shifting Eloy FT)

Pitching

• SP1 Bieber +0.6
• SP2 McKenzie +0.4
• SP3 Giolito +0.7
• SP4 Civale +0.1
• SP5 Kopech +0.6
• Bullpen White Sox +1.6

Net:

Hitting Advantage Cleveland +6.1

Pitching Advantage Chicago +1.8

[hi8is]

3 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Even with a couple of down spots in the lineup overall, there aren’t really any gaping holes in Cleveland. The White Sox may regret going into this offseason simply expecting a bounceback season; just as most of Chicago’s offense has worse projections than before 2022, the Guardians’ are largely better. Every good season has some elements of good fortune, but it was a lot more to it than that.

This is true if the Sox do not add a 2B, OF and SP.

Hitting

• C Cleveland +0.9
• 1B Push
• 2B Cleveland + 3.5
• 3B Cleveland + 3.1
• SS White Sox +0.2
• LF Push (Update for 10D)
• CF White Sox +1.8
• RF Cleveland +0.6
• DH Push (Update shifting Eloy FT)

Pitching

• SP1 Bieber +0.6
• SP2 McKenzie +0.4
• SP3 Giolito +0.7
• SP4 Civale +0.1
• SP5 Kopech +0.6
• Bullpen White Sox +1.6

Net:

Hitting Advantage Cleveland +6.1

Pitching Advantage Chicago +1.8

On the offensive side we’ll gain more with Benni in left and Eloy at DH. Also think they’re lite on Colas perhaps Vaughn also.

It shows the importance of getting 2+ WAR out of second base.

[SoxBlanco]

5 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Even with a couple of down spots in the lineup overall, there aren’t really any gaping holes in Cleveland. The White Sox may regret going into this offseason simply expecting a bounceback season; just as most of Chicago’s offense has worse projections than before 2022, the Guardians’ are largely better. Every good season has some elements of good fortune, but it was a lot more to it than that.

This is true if the Sox do not add a 2B, OF and SP.

Hitting

• C Cleveland +0.9
• 1B Push
• 2B Cleveland + 3.5
• 3B Cleveland + 3.1
• SS White Sox +0.2
• LF Push (Update for 10D)
• CF White Sox +1.8
• RF Cleveland +0.6
• DH Push (Update shifting Eloy FT)

Pitching

• SP1 Bieber +0.6
• SP2 McKenzie +0.4
• SP3 Giolito +0.7
• SP4 Civale +0.1
• SP5 Kopech +0.6
• Bullpen White Sox +1.6

Net:

Hitting Advantage Cleveland +6.1

Pitching Advantage Chicago +1.8

What were the net hitting and pitching differences between the two teams going into last season?

[South Side Hit Men]

 Cle

19 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

What were the net hitting and pitching differences between the two teams going into last season?

The projections are no longer available, but I inserted the 2022 actual fWAR performance in parenthesis below,

Hitting

• C Cleveland +0.9 (White Sox +1.9 CL -0/2 vs. WS 1.7)
• 1B Push (White Sox +2.2 CL 1.7 vs. WS 3.9)
• 2B Cleveland + 3.5 (Cleveland +6.0 CL 6.0 vs. WS 0.0)
• 3B Cleveland + 3.1 (Cleveland + 4.1 CL 5.3 vs. WS 1.2)
• SS White Sox +0.2 (White Sox + 2.2 CL 2.3 vs. WS 4.5)
• LF Push (Cleveland +2.7 CL 4.4 vs. WS 1.7)
• CF White Sox +1.8 (White Sox +0.4 CL 1.5 vs. WS 1.9)
• RF Cleveland +0.6 (Cleveland +1.9 CL 1.3 vs. WS -0.6)
• DH Push (White Sox +3.0 CL -1.3 vs. WS 1.7) 

Pitching

• Starting Pitching White Sox +0.2 (Push CL 12.0 vs. WS 12.0)
• Bullpen White Sox +1.6 (Cleveland + 1.3 CL 6.6 vs. WS 5.3)

Net:

Hitting Advantage Cleveland +6.1 (Cleveland +5.0)

Pitching Advantage Chicago +1.8 (Cleveland +1.3)

[SoxBlanco]

5 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

 Cle

The projections are no longer available, but I inserted the 2022 actual fWAR performance in parenthesis below,

Hitting

• C Cleveland +0.9 (White Sox +1.9 CL -0/2 vs. WS 1.7)
• 1B Push (White Sox +2.2 CL 1.7 vs. WS 3.9)
• 2B Cleveland + 3.5 (Cleveland +6.0 CL 6.0 vs. WS 0.0)
• 3B Cleveland + 3.1 (Cleveland + 4.1 CL 5.3 vs. WS 1.2)
• SS White Sox +0.2 (White Sox + 2.2 CL 2.3 vs. WS 4.5)
• LF Push (Cleveland +2.7 CL 4.4 vs. WS 1.7)
• CF White Sox +1.8 (White Sox +0.4 CL 1.5 vs. WS 1.9)
• RF Cleveland +0.6 (Cleveland +1.9 CL 1.3 vs. WS -0.6)
• DH Push (White Sox +3.0 CL -1.3 vs. WS 1.7) 

Pitching

• Starting Pitching White Sox +0.2 (Push CL 12.0 vs. WS 12.0)
• Bullpen White Sox +1.6 (Cleveland + 1.3 CL 6.6 vs. WS 5.3)

Net:

Hitting Advantage Cleveland +6.1 (Cleveland +5.0)

Pitching Advantage Chicago +1.8 (Cleveland +1.3)

Thanks for doing that, but I was hoping to see the projections. I didn’t realize they weren’t available anymore. 

[Chicago White Sox]

The ZiPS projections are super low for our positional guys IMO.  I think we blow them out of the water next year.

[South Side Hit Men]

58 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The ZiPS projections are super low for our positional guys IMO.  I think we blow them out of the water next year.

Most fan bases feel this way each season across baseball, but between rest, injuries and the performance of replacement players,  the projections typically pan out overall across most teams with a few outliers (over and under). Without further reinforcements, Sox fans have to hope they are among the 1-3 teams which significantly outperform their projections.

Would say the biggest area for optimism / upside is with the pitching staff (starters being more healthy overall, a few bullpen guys bounce back with the seasons Hahn hoped for last year, and not the lineup. Eloy and Vaughn's projections are over 1.0 fWAR (Robert 0.7) over anything they have done to date. Sure, injuries and defensive liabilities have depressed prior performance, but they still need the can play healthy over a long season and perform, Vaughn and Eloy in their relatively new roles at a ML level and at positions they are penalized for their position in terms of fWAR calculations like every other player at 1B/DH.

Would say Anderson, Moncada and Giolito are the keys in terms of players with the ability and past performance to possibly significantly exceed current expectations.

Player Projected FanGraphs Depth Chart fWAR (previous best season fWAR 2019-2022)

Bold Players = Players who have exceeded their projection by over 1.5 within the past two seasons.

Italics Players = Players who have never exceeded their current projection.

Lineup: Robert 4.0 ( 2021 3.3); Eloy 2.9 (2022 1.7); Anderson 3.0 (2021 4.7); Moncada 2.6 (2021 4.0); Vaughn 2.4 (2021 -0.3); Grandal 2.4 (2021 3.6); 10D 2.3 (2022 2.8).

Starters: Cease 3.3 (2021 & 2022 4.4); Lynn 2.8 (2021 4.2); Giolito 2.0 (2021 4.1); Clevinger 1.3 (2022 0.4); Kopech 1.1 (2021 1.7)

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by South Side Hit Men

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The ZiPS projections are super low for our positional guys IMO.  I think we blow them out of the water next year.

Anticipating this is why I went through the full details in that big post on the previous page now. It turns out that almost to a man, ZiPS already projects they substantially outperform what they did last year. They don't project complete health, but everyone who got hurt last year is projected to be healthier and perform better this year, save Eloy who was projected to be healthier but not as good with the bat. Vaughn is projected to be better than he's ever been by quite a bit. Grandal is supposed to be back to being a solid catcher. Moncada is a quality bat at 3b and stays healthier. Anderson is healthier. Robert not only stays healthier (not fully healthy) but he's back to being a solid defender and his offense is back where it was without any wrist injury. 

The only 2 notable guys who have a worse projection than last year are Cease and Zavala. Cease probably has a solid chance of outperforming that projection by a win or so, it gave him some skepticism since it was a breakout year for him. Zavala probably nearly the offensive catcher we saw last year. 

There's room for improvement, particularly on the part of Colas, but you really are into "Everything must go right" territory to get there. 

[ron883]

Just heard Bernstein talking about how Colas isn't a good prospect, lol. Pretty sure he based it solely on these projections. 

[Balta1701]

Here’s a post player movement update on the Steamer predictions. They have the White Sox second in the AL Central, 1.3 games ahead of Minnesota on average but 6.6 games behind Minnesota.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35292245/ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-biggest-free-agents-signed
 

It’s paywalled so here’s just the White Sox excerpt:

Quote

14. Chicago White Sox

Projected wins: 81.8
Playoff odds: 36%
Title odds: 1% (down 0.3%)
Aggression rank: 21
Improvement rank: 24

At the 1975 winter meetings, White Sox owner Bill Veeck and general manager Roland Hemond hung a sign on a table saying "open for business." The 2022-23 White Sox, under Jerry Reinsdorf and Rick Hahn, are considerably less flamboyant, both in style and approach. The White Sox at least have balanced their roster by ostensibly exchanging the on-field value of Jose Abreu for that of Andrew Benintendi, comparable players who go about things in very different ways. Benintendi adds things the White Sox needed -- speed, outfield defense, though the lineup also needs more home runs and that's not Benintendi's calling card. But when you're taking a passive approach to things, you aren't going to spring for a player who fills all your needs. The White Sox need to be aggressive in adding quality depth to the back half of their 40-man roster to get them through next season. And, for the love of Veeck, can this team acquire an everyday second baseman?

 

[Chicago White Sox]

28 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Here’s a post player movement update on the Steamer predictions. They have the White Sox second in the AL Central, 1.3 games ahead of Minnesota on average but 6.6 games behind Minnesota.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35292245/ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-biggest-free-agents-signed
 

It’s paywalled so here’s just the White Sox excerpt:

 

I guess the season is over then ?‍♂️ 

[Balta1701]

40 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I guess the season is over then ?‍♂️ 

If you're only interested in triumphant projections about the White Sox then you probably should skip all projection threads this year. 

[Chicago White Sox]

56 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you're only interested in triumphant projections about the White Sox then you probably should skip all projection threads this year. 

I just think these projections are kind of meaningless.  They don’t account for the impact of moving away from our previous lifeless manager with a guy who will have players prepared and focused, they don’t account for the impact of replacing a hitting coach whose motto was “f*** the HR” with three modern instructors who will help our players tap into their raw power, and they don’t account for our new training staff finally having an off-season to work with our guys and find ways to keep them healthier over the course of a season.

So you can continue to pound table and scream that we’re way behind the Guardians as we head into next year, but I’ll continue to point out that all these protection systems miss context and do not realize how incompetent certain elements of this org were the last two seasons.  Whatever these models are spitting out, I’d add at least a good five wins on top of that.

[ChiSox59]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I just think these projections are kind of meaningless.  They don’t account for the impact of moving away from our previous lifeless manager with a guy who will have players prepared and focused, they don’t account for the impact of replacing a hitting coach whose motto was “f*** the HR” with three modern instructors who will help our players tap into their raw power, and they don’t account for our new training staff finally having an off-season to work with our guys and find ways to keep them healthier over the course of a season.

So you can continue to pound table and scream that we’re way behind the Guardians as we head into next year, but I’ll continue to point out that all these protection systems miss context and do not realize how incompetent certain elements of this org were the last two seasons.  Whatever these models are spitting out, I’d add at least a good five wins on top of that.

Alot of these models are also assuming that the Guardians were not a 2 month flash in the pan.  I remain far from convinced everything is going to go right for Cleveland yet again in 2023.  

[Dick Allen]

Here were last years projections, for what Fangraphs called the most accurate projection model. Notice the Astros had  0:5% higher chance of winning the World Series than the White Sox, and the Guardians had a 0.5% higher chance of winning the AL Central than the White Sox had of winning the WS. 

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/atc-2022-projected-standings-and-playoff-odds/

Edited December 27, 2022 by Dick Allen

[kgrittenburg]

On 11/29/2022 at 1:40 PM, Chisoxfn said:

So this implies as of now we are an 84 win team.  

i'm calling it at 80-82

[poppysox]

20 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Alot of these models are also assuming that the Guardians were not a 2 month flash in the pan.  I remain far from convinced everything is going to go right for Cleveland yet again in 2023.  

Steve Kwan doesn't strike me as a flash in the pan.  They will be a team to be reckoned with.  On the other hand...TLR just sucked the life out of our team.  I have huge hopes for our new coaching staff and manager.