Winter Meetings Thread

[Dick Allen]

8 minutes ago, Vote4Pedro said:

Hmmm

There you have it. Rick is hoping another teams GM will have an idea how he can help make Ricks team better.

[hi8is]

10 minutes ago, Vote4Pedro said:

Hmmm

Hummmmmmmm

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

My instinct is that on his own, Anderson with 2 years remaining should bring back a prospect who's probably in the 50-100 range as the centerpiece, probably with a minor piece as a throwin.

The Cardinals have 5 guys in that range. A SS who is ranked above Montgomery on that list (both are shown as 50 FV on Fangraphs), 3 pitchers, and an OF.  

I'd say if the White Sox are rebuilding, one of those pitchers as the centerpiece makes sense? 

Good god is that a massive undervaluation of Anderson.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Good god is that a massive undervaluation of Anderson.

Classic tho. 

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

What’s the chances that each one of them is @Orlandoand @adammaloney just echo chambering themselves? I’ll go with 99%. 

I’m 100% certain it’s those two dudes.  Absolutely fucking pathetic what these two losers will do for followers.  Glad they aren’t part of Soxtalk anymore.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Good god is that a massive undervaluation of Anderson.

2 years of control left, coming off an injury shortened season, a history of minor leg injuries, defensively from last year you question whether he can stay at SS, and his performance last year looked like a 3 win SS, not 4.5 like the year before. Surplus value for him at this projection looks like 4 WAR over 2 years beyond what you’re paying for, rather than 7 like you would have thought coming into 2022. You’re not only trading him at a big low in his value, but there’s also 4 (now 3) other shortstop options available as free agents. This is not a good guy to sell right now.

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

2 years of control left, coming off an injury shortened season, a history of minor leg injuries, defensively from last year you question whether he can stay at SS, and his performance last year looked like a 3 win SS, not 4.5 like the year before. Surplus value for him at this projection looks like 4 WAR over 2 years beyond what you’re paying for, rather than 7 like you would have thought coming into 2022. You’re not only trading him at a big low in his value, but there’s also 4 (now 3) other shortstop options available as free agents. This is not a good guy to sell right now.

Agreed now is not the right time to sell TA for many of the reasons stated. He would still return FAR more than a back end top 100 prospect + some “minor throw in piece”. That’s crazy talk. 

[Tnetennba]

23 minutes ago, Vote4Pedro said:

Hmmm

So, what’s Hahn telegraphing through his lawyer speak?

[fathom]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

2 years of control left, coming off an injury shortened season, a history of minor leg injuries, defensively from last year you question whether he can stay at SS, and his performance last year looked like a 3 win SS, not 4.5 like the year before. Surplus value for him at this projection looks like 4 WAR over 2 years beyond what you’re paying for, rather than 7 like you would have thought coming into 2022. You’re not only trading him at a big low in his value, but there’s also 4 (now 3) other shortstop options available as free agents. This is not a good guy to sell right now.

Couldn’t disagree more.  With the insane contracts these SS are getting, his two years at a modest salary make him extremely attractive to teams.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Tnetennba said:

So, what’s Hahn telegraphing through his lawyer speak?

One or two of Hendriks, Gio or Timmy are gone, and Montgomery shouldn’t get too comfortable.

[hi8is]

3 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

So, what’s Hahn telegraphing through his lawyer speak?

He’s telling a team to up their offer and creating urgency for them to do so.

[Timmy U]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

One or two of Hendriks, Gio or Timmy are gone, and Montgomery shouldn’t get too comfortable.

Interesting.  I can't see a world where they cut payroll, trade TA, AND trade Montgomery.  Either they are all-in or they're not.  6 years of control of a lefty-hitting ss in a market where Trea Turner just signed an 11 year contract seems something a cheap org like the Sox would want. What makes you think they'd even consider moving Montgomery?

[ChiSoxFanMike]

1 minute ago, Timmy U said:

Interesting.  I can't see a world where they cut payroll, trade TA, AND trade Montgomery.  Either they are all-in or they're not.  6 years of control of a lefty-hitting ss in a market where Trea Turner just signed an 11 year contract seems something a cheap org like the Sox would want. What makes you think they'd even consider moving Montgomery?

Yeah I don’t see how trading Montgomery makes any sense at this point.

[Tnetennba]

7 minutes ago, fathom said:

One or two of Hendriks, Gio or Timmy are gone, and Montgomery shouldn’t get too comfortable.

That’s what it feels like to me too.  They will be trading parts off the big league roster, it’s just a matter of who. 

[fathom]

2 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Interesting.  I can't see a world where they cut payroll, trade TA, AND trade Montgomery.  Either they are all-in or they're not.  6 years of control of a lefty-hitting ss in a market where Trea Turner just signed an 11 year contract seems something a cheap org like the Sox would want. What makes you think they'd even consider moving Montgomery?

It wouldn’t be both Timmy and Montgomery. Could easily see them trade Hendriks or Giolito in one deal and then Montgomery in another.

[Tnetennba]

3 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Interesting.  I can't see a world where they cut payroll, trade TA, AND trade Montgomery.  Either they are all-in or they're not.  6 years of control of a lefty-hitting ss in a market where Trea Turner just signed an 11 year contract seems something a cheap org like the Sox would want. What makes you think they'd even consider moving Montgomery?

Desperation?  Incompetence?  
Montgomery should be safe if they are trading big leaguers, but I put nothing past Hahn at this point. 

[Dick Allen]

18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

2 years of control left, coming off an injury shortened season, a history of minor leg injuries, defensively from last year you question whether he can stay at SS, and his performance last year looked like a 3 win SS, not 4.5 like the year before. Surplus value for him at this projection looks like 4 WAR over 2 years beyond what you’re paying for, rather than 7 like you would have thought coming into 2022. You’re not only trading him at a big low in his value, but there’s also 4 (now 3) other shortstop options available as free agents. This is not a good guy to sell right now.

2 years of control at less than it will cost for 1 year of the free agent SS, not to mention the premium you have to pay at the back end to actually sign them. TA wasn’t very good in 2022 but still put up a 2.0 WAR in 79 games. If Montgomery was a year more developed I would entertain all offers for TA, and they would be a lot more significant than you suggest. But they can’t trade TA now. They have no replacement. 

[ShoeLessRob]

43 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

So, what’s Hahn telegraphing through his lawyer speak?

The team is on the field 

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

2 years of control left, coming off an injury shortened season, a history of minor leg injuries, defensively from last year you question whether he can stay at SS, and his performance last year looked like a 3 win SS, not 4.5 like the year before. Surplus value for him at this projection looks like 4 WAR over 2 years beyond what you’re paying for, rather than 7 like you would have thought coming into 2022. You’re not only trading him at a big low in his value, but there’s also 4 (now 3) other shortstop options available as free agents. This is not a good guy to sell right now.

Dude put up 4.5, 2.4 (6.5 pace), & 4.7 win seasons from 2019 to 2021.  Last year he put up 2.0 fWAR in about 2/3 of his normal playing time, so effectively would have been on a 3.0 win pace.  However, in the 163 plate appearances last year before his groin injury he had a 157 wRC+ and looked legit awesome.  When he returned, he had a 65 wRC+ over his final 167 plate appearances with only 1 HR and 4 2Bs during this stretch.  Any person who actually watches our games could see he didn’t look right when he came back whether it was due to the groin injury and/or off-field stuff (see cheating scandal).  As such, there is zero reason to think he’s not a ~4 win player heading into 2023.

And let’s say he’s a 4 win player moving forward.  At $9M/win, you’re looking at ~$46M in surplus value over the next two years.  Additionally, you’ll also have the right to QO him after the 2024 season.  Let’s say Tim rejects and the team ends up with a pick.  That would add another ~$4M in expected value and you’re now looking at ~$50M in total surplus value.  

For me to trade him would require a legit blue chip prospect (55 FV) in the 25 to 45 range of the top 100 as the centerpiece and he would have to be of the positional variety.  If I’m not getting a 55 FV guy like you’re suggesting then I’d need two 50 FV guys in the 50 to 100 range to headline a deal.  One generic top 100 prospect does not cut it for a player as talented as Tim, not with the track record he’s had over the past four years.

[Vote4Pedro]

 

[Balta1701]

30 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Dude put up 4.5, 2.4 (6.5 pace), & 4.7 win seasons from 2019 to 2021.  Last year he put up 2.0 fWAR in about 2/3 of his normal playing time, so effectively would have been on a 3.0 win pace.  However, in the 163 plate appearances last year before his groin injury he had a 157 wRC+ and looked legit awesome.  When he returned, he had a 65 wRC+ over his final 167 plate appearances with only 1 HR and 4 2Bs during this stretch.  Any person who actually watches our games could see he didn’t look right when he came back whether it was due to the groin injury and/or off-field stuff (see cheating scandal).  As such, there is zero reason to think he’s not a ~4 win player heading into 2023.

And let’s say he’s a 4 win player moving forward.  At $9M/win, you’re looking at ~$46M in surplus value over the next two years.  Additionally, you’ll also have the right to QO him after the 2024 season.  Let’s say Tim rejects and the team ends up with a pick.  That would add another ~$4M in expected value and you’re now looking at ~$50M in total surplus value.  

For me to trade him would require a legit blue chip prospect (55 FV) in the 25 to 45 range of the top 100 as the centerpiece and he would have to be of the positional variety.  If I’m not getting a 55 FV guy like you’re suggesting then I’d need two 50 FV guys in the 50 to 100 range to headline a deal.  One generic top 100 prospect does not cut it for a player as talented as Tim, not with the track record he’s had over the past four years.

Just so I get this straight, you wouldn’t do Vaughn and Montgomery for Reynolds as that’s an overpay and no one moves guys like that unless it’s for a guy like Soto, but two 50 FV guys like Vaughn and Montgomery is the price for Anderson?

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Just so I get this straight, you wouldn’t do Vaughn and Montgomery for Reynolds as that’s an overpay and no one moves guys like that unless it’s for a guy like Soto, but two 50 FV guys like Vaughn and Montgomery is the price for Anderson?

Colson is a legit 55 FV prospect as I mentioned previously and Vaughn is a former 60 FV prospect who posted a 125 wRC+ through August of last year as a 24 year old in the majors.  That’s considerably more than “two 50 FV guys”.

[southsideirish71]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

It wouldn’t be both Timmy and Montgomery. Could easily see them trade Hendriks or Giolito in one deal and then Montgomery in another.

I can see JR using Montgomery as a sweetener to offload a painful contract.   

[elrockinMT]

I predict that there will be no Sox trades. We have the nucleus of a good team and can fill any needs we may have with our minor league players. I think Free Agent signings are still possible but at bargain prices 

Edited December 6, 2022 by elrockinMT

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, elrockinMT said:

I predict that there will be no Sox trades. We have the nucleus of a good team and can fill any needs we may have with our minor league players. I think Free Agent signings are still possible but at bargain prices 

We he one legit OF on our 40 man roster.