Is Now the Time to Trade Gio?

[southsider2k5]

 

[Bob Sacamano]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

IF they actually receive a good return I'd be open for it. Don't think he is here beyond next season.

[Tnetennba]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

Is this being floating to gauge reaction and or soften the blow??

[Chisoxfn]

Figured lets make its own thread.  I don't like giving Rogers credit - cause there isn't likely any inside info here, but he raises a point. Yes - it is a low point to sell Gio, but at the same time - they only have him for this season, so the question is - is the value you get for him next year worth more than the value of a comp pick?  

I would probably say I don't know and I am a huge Lucas fan.  Given the going rate of FA - Gio still has a good profile and I think analytics and past support are kind to him. Yes, he had a bad year - but excluding last year - he has basically been one of the best pitchers via WAR for a couple years and last year's peripheals are indicative of bad luck.  

If you can get younger assets and fill other holes - I kind of think Gio is someone you should trade (sure you could wait and see if he outperforms / bounces back and potentially get more at the deadline - but knowing Sox are trying to contend it feels like repositioning now makes more sense because club can do more NOW around overall roster construction).  

[CentralChamps21]

Question: Is now the time to trade <insert literally any player's name here>?

Answer: If you can get more value back then you're giving up, yes. If not, no.

[Dick Allen]

15 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Figured lets make its own thread.  I don't like giving Rogers credit - cause there isn't likely any inside info here, but he raises a point. Yes - it is a low point to sell Gio, but at the same time - they only have him for this season, so the question is - is the value you get for him next year worth more than the value of a comp pick?  

I would probably say I don't know and I am a huge Lucas fan.  Given the going rate of FA - Gio still has a good profile and I think analytics and past support are kind to him. Yes, he had a bad year - but excluding last year - he has basically been one of the best pitchers via WAR for a couple years and last year's peripheals are indicative of bad luck.  

If you can get younger assets and fill other holes - I kind of think Gio is someone you should trade (sure you could wait and see if he outperforms / bounces back and potentially get more at the deadline - but knowing Sox are trying to contend it feels like repositioning now makes more sense because club can do more NOW around overall roster construction).  

If you look at the history of White Sox second round picks, its pretty brutal. The only guy since the drafted Terry Forster 52 years ago, who signed and has a 7.0 career WAR or higher is Bob Wickman. Second in Ryan Sweeney at 6.9. Third is Trace Thompson at 3.3. But they are due to hit on one eventually. I have no idea what teams will give up for him, but I'm guessing not a ton, so why trade a guy who may be an ace at still a reasonable price for a year, and get the comp pick?  If someone wants to pay up for him, fine, because there is zero chance they re-sign him. But the move seems too obvious to me.

[Jerksticks]

It’s forward thinking to trade him because we know the Sox aren’t going to extend him.  
 

But how do we win the World Series THIS YEAR if we trade him?  We kinda already need him to regain velocity and dominance to make a run this year, no?

[TheFutureIsNear]

45 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

Multiple pieces? How much value does Gio have after a poor season and only 1 year of control?

Even if we are able to get a LH OF’er for Gio is it going to be someone significantly better than someone like Benintendi or Conforto that we could just sign? Because whatever $ we save trading for an OF’er would then have to be spent on a SP to fill Gio’s rotation spot…which will probably be more expensive or a huge ? (Not that Lucas is a sure thing)

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Multiple pieces? How much value does Gio have after a poor season and only 1 year of control?

Even if we are able to get a LH OF’er for Gio is it going to be someone significantly better than someone like Benintendi or Conforto that we could just sign? Because whatever $ we save trading for an OF’er would then have to be spent on a SP to fill Gio’s rotation spot…which will probably be more expensive or a huge ? (Not that Lucas is a sure thing)

Well, if these pitchers have that kind of value, it totally changes the value composition for a guy like Lucas Giolito, even coming off of a pretty mediocre year.  I will also just mention that his defense really cost him last year, and that wouldn't be the case in a lot of other places who could bid for him.

[Balta1701]

So first, it is still entirely possible that if Giolito has a better first half, he could be worth more at the trade deadline.

Second...if the prices of pitchers are higher than we think, does that not mean the price of replacing him is higher than we think? 

[bmags]

10 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Multiple pieces? How much value does Gio have after a poor season and only 1 year of control?

Even if we are able to get a LH OF’er for Gio is it going to be someone significantly better than someone like Benintendi or Conforto that we could just sign? Because whatever $ we save trading for an OF’er would then have to be spent on a SP to fill Gio’s rotation spot…which will probably be more expensive or a huge ? (Not that Lucas is a sure thing)

Well Clevinger sucked last year but pitched way less innings and got 1 year 12 million, more than Giolito will make.

Zach Eflin was way more competent but still more of a #4, except it has been 3 years since he has thrown as many innings as Giolito last year. He got 3 years 40.

I'm sure many-a team are looking at a pitcher who had some bad luck despite the worse stuff and is still a rare workhorse (in modern times) who has quite a bit higher ceiling. And if you are a competitive team, $10mil is cheap.

So yes I think he has good value to trade, but not a top 100 guy type return 

[Balta1701]

Also worth remembering that Giolito is fully eligible for a QO and a returning draft pick if the White Sox hold onto him for another year, so whatever they get back better be substantially more valuable than that pick. 

[TheFutureIsNear]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

Well Clevinger sucked last year but pitched way less innings and got 1 year 12 million, more than Giolito will make.

Zach Eflin was way more competent but still more of a #4, except it has been 3 years since he has thrown as many innings as Giolito last year. He got 3 years 40.

I'm sure many-a team are looking at a pitcher who had some bad luck despite the worse stuff and is still a rare workhorse (in modern times) who has quite a bit higher ceiling. And if you are a competitive team, $10mil is cheap.

So yes I think he has good value to trade, but not a top 100 guy type return 

If the Sox weren’t looking to compete this year it would make total sense, but we all know that’s not the case. Again, who’s replacing Giolito in the rotation? If we are talking about bad SP’s getting $10+M, why would you willingly create that hole in the rotation for yourself? 
 

It’s not that I’m completely against the idea of trading Gio in general, I just think it will be easier to fill the OF/2B holes than it will to be find another SP that we could possibly be relying on to be a top 3 guy in our rotation come playoff time (who knows if Kopech/Clevinger will be good/available in Sept.)

Edited December 2, 2022 by TheFutureIsNear

[Chisoxfn]

44 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

If you look at the history of White Sox second round picks, its pretty brutal. The only guy since the drafted Terry Forster 52 years ago, who signed and has a 7.0 career WAR or higher is Bob Wickman. Second in Ryan Sweeney at 6.9. Third is Trace Thompson at 3.3. But they are due to hit on one eventually. I have no idea what teams will give up for him, but I'm guessing not a ton, so why trade a guy who may be an ace at still a reasonable price for a year, and get the comp pick?  If someone wants to pay up for him, fine, because there is zero chance they re-sign him. But the move seems too obvious to me.

That is where I am - my view is - trade him now as part of a broader retooling when you have the whole market available (if it makes sense). If offer is weak fine - but I don't think the offers will be weak. 

People say Soxtalk overrates guys - I actually think in general the negativity on here outweighs the positivity from most posters and in general they underrate individuals. Gio is at a fair price (but expiring), healthy and entering his prime.  They absolutely can get a real difference maker for him (or other chips).  I'm not saying you are getting a Chris Sale or Jose Quintana package for him - but lets not act like Gio is trash.  His projections are also favorable for '23 and prior to last year had 3 straight years of 4+ WAR and 1 top 10 and 1 top 11 CY Young appearance.  

[Jack Parkman]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Also worth remembering that Giolito is fully eligible for a QO and a returning draft pick if the White Sox hold onto him for another year, so whatever they get back better be substantially more valuable than that pick. 

I think that the Sox are going to trade Giolito and sign Manaea to replace him. 

 

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

If the Sox weren’t looking to compete this year it would make total sense, but we all know that’s not the case. Again, who’s replacing Giolito in the rotation? If we are talking about bad SP’s getting $10+M, why would you willingly create that hole in the rotation for yourself? 
 

It’s not that I’m completely against the idea of trading Gio in general, I just think it will be easier to fill the OF/2B holes than it will to be find another SP that we could possibly be relying on to be a top 3 guy in our rotation come playoff time (who knows if Kopech/Clevinger will be good/available in Sept.)

Well, if you aren't talking about this as a costcutting measure, the reason you would trade Gio is it is clear you will not re-sign him. He has been the rare sox to enter FA, and the other was Rodon, and Rodon is gone (after the detour).

So you could also just say "we are going to trade Giolito away because we won't re-sign him, get value back, and sign a different pitcher we can get for the next 3-4 years".

If you are just completely capped, you probably aren't trading Giolito it's true.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think that the Sox are going to trade Giolito and sign Manaea to replace him. 

 

I think this is actually possible. Unfortunately I think it will be a disaster, but yes I agree about it.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

That is where I am - my view is - trade him now as part of a broader retooling when you have the whole market available (if it makes sense). If offer is weak fine - but I don't think the offers will be weak. 

People say Soxtalk overrates guys - I actually think in general the negativity on here outweighs the positivity from most posters and in general they underrate individuals. Gio is at a fair price (but expiring), healthy and entering his prime.  They absolutely can get a real difference maker for him (or other chips).  I'm not saying you are getting a Chris Sale or Jose Quintana package for him - but lets not act like Gio is trash.  His projections are also favorable for '23 and prior to last year had 3 straight years of 4+ WAR and 1 top 10 and 1 top 11 CY Young appearance.  

If they want a real difference maker kind of player, aren't they going to have to accept someone who isn't ready to contribute right away?

No one is giving you an Andrew Vaughn with 4+ years of control as a starter for a guy with 1 year of control. It's just not happening. 

You could certainly get someone under control for 1-2 years from a team that needs a pitcher. You can make a case that Giolito for Gleyber Torres works just fine as the Yankees always could use pitching and that provides IF help for the White Sox. You can make a case for Giolito being a piece in a deal for Max Kepler as the Twins need pitching. 

But you do that...great, now you have a guy under control for 1 year that helps you next year...and you've transferred the hole in your lineup from LF/2b to a big one in your starting rotation.

How is this better? The White Sox don't have anyone who can replace a starting pitcher right now.

On the other hand, if you took someone from AA, you're probably not getting a top 100 prospect but you could get someone with a shot at contributing in 2024. So instead of having holes in LF, backup OF, and a pair of rookie starters, now you have holes in LF, backup OF, a pair of rookie starters, and Davis Martin is your fifth starter. You have an extra $11 million to spend or so, but your starting rotation has another gap in it. Are we giving up on the 2023 season? If so, why is Giolito the only guy being sold?

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Well, if you aren't talking about this as a costcutting measure, the reason you would trade Gio is it is clear you will not re-sign him. He has been the rare sox to enter FA, and the other was Rodon, and Rodon is gone (after the detour).

So you could also just say "we are going to trade Giolito away because we won't re-sign him, get value back, and sign a different pitcher we can get for the next 3-4 years".

If you are just completely capped, you probably aren't trading Giolito it's true.

Who is this pitcher that you think they're signing for 3-4 years? Bassitt? Taillon? 

[SoCalChiSox]

6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think that the Sox are going to trade Giolito and sign Manaea to replace him. 

 

This is very possible. They wanted him last year and now that he struggled, they might be able to get him on a cheap 1 yr deal where the money is basically a wash with Giolito leaving, assuming whatever major leaguers we are getting in return don't substantially eat up his salary space.

Cease, Lynn, Kopech, Manaea and Clevinger would be pretty solid with potential for great if they are healthy and the latter two bounce back.

[bmags]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Who is this pitcher that you think they're signing for 3-4 years? Bassitt? Taillon? 

There are a number of free agent pitchers, many will likely sign a contract.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

This is very possible. They wanted him last year and now that he struggled, they might be able to get him on a cheap 1 yr deal where the money is basically a wash with Giolito leaving, assuming whatever major leaguers we are getting in return don't substantially eat up his salary space.

Cease, Lynn, Kopech, Manaea and Clevinger would be pretty solid with potential for great if they are healthy and the latter two bounce back.

At least on paper we'd make that "the White Sox have the highest rotation WAR in the Central in the ZiPS projections" post false. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

There are a number of free agent pitchers, many will likely sign a contract.

And you won't answer because you know the obvious problem. To sign a guy comparable to Giolito requires either: a lot more money than we're likely to spend on Giolito, in a season where the budget is already tight...or a lot of luck, which we're already gambling on with Clevinger.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

It's now confirmed you would still get a great piece back for Giolito since Boyd signed for the same contract.  Boyd is a DFA pitcher lol.  He's like fancy Velasquez. 

[SoxBlanco]

42 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So first, it is still entirely possible that if Giolito has a better first half, he could be worth more at the trade deadline.

Problem with that is if Giolito has a solid first half, we aren't going to want to trade him for two reasons:

1. We will likely be in the hunt for the division.

2. We can't simply sign a free agent to round out the rotation like we can now.