Is Now the Time to Trade Gio?

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

what is the best corner outfielder Gio would net with at least 2 years of control? That makes sense...as well as grabbing some prospects and signing a lefty LF if they can't find a good OF match and go 2nd base instead. But 2nd base trade would need to be really good to make it worth it. 

The list of OFs with 2 years of control is...not impressive?

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2024/outfield/

Manuel Margot of the Rays shows up with 3 years of control. Alex Verdugo? Whit Merrifield? 

[poppysox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If they want a real difference maker kind of player, aren't they going to have to accept someone who isn't ready to contribute right away?

No one is giving you an Andrew Vaughn with 4+ years of control as a starter for a guy with 1 year of control. It's just not happening. 

You could certainly get someone under control for 1-2 years from a team that needs a pitcher. You can make a case that Giolito for Gleyber Torres works just fine as the Yankees always could use pitching and that provides IF help for the White Sox. You can make a case for Giolito being a piece in a deal for Max Kepler as the Twins need pitching. 

But you do that...great, now you have a guy under control for 1 year that helps you next year...and you've transferred the hole in your lineup from LF/2b to a big one in your starting rotation.

How is this better? The White Sox don't have anyone who can replace a starting pitcher right now.

On the other hand, if you took someone from AA, you're probably not getting a top 100 prospect but you could get someone with a shot at contributing in 2024. So instead of having holes in LF, backup OF, and a pair of rookie starters, now you have holes in LF, backup OF, a pair of rookie starters, and Davis Martin is your fifth starter. You have an extra $11 million to spend or so, but your starting rotation has another gap in it. Are we giving up on the 2023 season? If so, why is Giolito the only guy being sold?

Yep...sign me up for a Kepler trade.

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If they want a real difference maker kind of player, aren't they going to have to accept someone who isn't ready to contribute right away?

No one is giving you an Andrew Vaughn with 4+ years of control as a starter for a guy with 1 year of control. It's just not happening. 

You could certainly get someone under control for 1-2 years from a team that needs a pitcher. You can make a case that Giolito for Gleyber Torres works just fine as the Yankees always could use pitching and that provides IF help for the White Sox. You can make a case for Giolito being a piece in a deal for Max Kepler as the Twins need pitching. 

But you do that...great, now you have a guy under control for 1 year that helps you next year...and you've transferred the hole in your lineup from LF/2b to a big one in your starting rotation.

How is this better? The White Sox don't have anyone who can replace a starting pitcher right now.

On the other hand, if you took someone from AA, you're probably not getting a top 100 prospect but you could get someone with a shot at contributing in 2024. So instead of having holes in LF, backup OF, and a pair of rookie starters, now you have holes in LF, backup OF, a pair of rookie starters, and Davis Martin is your fifth starter. You have an extra $11 million to spend or so, but your starting rotation has another gap in it. Are we giving up on the 2023 season? If so, why is Giolito the only guy being sold?

Or they could get an above average outfielder who is signed for a bit longer term deal (doesn't necessarily have to be prospects). And I laugh at GIo+ for Kepler (I think Gio is more valuable than Kepler but maybe I'm wrong). And maybe the Sox decide they won't replace Gio, rather lean in on other guys and take a lesser approach and essentially deploy more money into other holes?  

And lets not act like the Sox can't trade some prospects for other more cost controlled guys.  Quite frankly - if they are trying to win - does it really matter how great the farm system is vs. pushing in some chips to inject more talent into the team now. If it doesn't work you are going to be restarting a rebuilding anyway and be starting over.  So I kind of view it as - go ahead and throw away a few young cost controlled guys for a ML above average cost controlled guy who can help this team now and I would be fully supportive of doing it.  

[wegner]

12 minutes ago, NCsoxfan said:

Today ESPN proposing Giolito to TB for Brandon Lowe (sorry if this is posted elsewhere)

ESPN looking out for the South Siders....a 1st World Series Championship ever for the White Sox would be a big story on the Disney Sports Network.

[NCsoxfan]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So this fills the 2b hole and cuts $5 million off the payroll, but:

1. We're assuming the Rays are dumb enough to give this guy up? What do they know that we don't about his health where they would trade this guy for a pitcher under control for 1 year?

2. Let's say we have $20 million to spend right now, that leaves the payroll just about level compared to last year. After that trade, you have $25 million to spend, but you still need 2 OFs and now you need a starting pitcher, and this thread exists because "Starters are costing more than we thought."

Gleyber Torres

I kept trying to play with a deal that would get Torres to the Chicago White Sox in a larger exchange including Lucas Giolito, who gets traded elsewhere below. I just couldn't find a match that quite worked and realized I was trying too hard, probably because I relished the idea of Torres teaming up with fellow ex-Cubs prospects Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease on the South Side. That's a good narrative but not a good foundation for a trade.

 

I'm trading Giolito for the next player on our list, Brandon Lowe, so I'm going to focus my commentary here on the White Sox. Giolito is a good pitcher and a team leader in the White Sox clubhouse, a strong bounce-back candidate after a lackluster 2022 campaign and somebody Chicago should think seriously about extending. Without that extension, though, Giolito will be a free agent after next season, which is why he's on trade candidate lists in the first place.

If the White Sox were to deal Giolito and it wasn't part of a larger deal with the Rays that brought back a starter, they'd have to pivot to filling out a base rotation that includes Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn and recently signed Mike Clevinger. If they were willing to pay Clevinger $12 million on a one-year, make-good deal, then surely they'd be able to find someone comparable to fill in his slot for a season for the $10 or $11 million Giolito is likely to receive for 2023 via the arbitration system. One free agent option that leaps to mind is former White Sox starter and current free agent Jose Quintana.

Meanwhile, I love the fit for Lowe, provided his defense holds up in a post-shift world at the keystone and that he's healthy after an injury-riddled 2022 season. He would add another lefty bat to balance a White Sox lineup that still figures to tilt toward righty hitters. He adds power to a team that struggled to hit the long ball consistently in 2022. While Lowe is generally a low-average hitter, the ban of extreme shifts could help out the results on his pull-oriented swing. And, more than anything, the White Sox simply need a second baseman. Badly.

[greg775]

Hilarious how many Sox fans deep down seem to enjoy a possible second tank job/rebuild. A lot of the players we got to win us some pennants in the past tank job have been here long enough we see their warts. I could go through the list but your Moncadas, Eloys, Roberts, some of the pitchers, even Timmys (defense) have shown warts. There's no excuse for keeping Hahn around and KW. They have failed (except for magical 2005) and it's time to clean house. This team has about a 2 percent chance of reaching the WS next season which means the tank job was an utter failure. Let's just start talk of trading everybody.

Edited December 2, 2022 by greg775

[SoxBlanco]

44 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If teams believed that, then wouldn't Manaea get substantially more than Giolito in free agency? 

Believed what?  I didn’t say Manaea is definitely better than Giolito, so I’m not sure why you would say “substantially more”.

If Giolito has another year like last year, he won’t get much in free agency after 2023. 

But Manaea is coming off a down year also, so he won’t get a big contract either. 

[ShoeLessRob]

54 minutes ago, tray said:

Gio lost velocity and started hanging his high change-up at times. However, he is an extremely smart player and a guy who has dedicated himself to getting into condition, so it is likely he returns to his earlier level of excellence on the mound.  Si I would tend to want Gio back, but not player is un-tradeabl for the right return.

Moncada and Vaughn are players that, if traded, might be less of a blow to the offense.  Burger could hold down third base until a better option is available. AV's defense at first base is limited by his height/reach and he has not been a big home run threat.  Gavin Sheets is a LH hitter that can hold down first base and his hitting has improved.   So, given the right return, launch Moncada to an East coast team (Yankees?) and Vaughn to a West Coast team (Dodgers?).

What?

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, NCsoxfan said:

Gleyber Torres

I kept trying to play with a deal that would get Torres to the Chicago White Sox in a larger exchange including Lucas Giolito, who gets traded elsewhere below. I just couldn't find a match that quite worked and realized I was trying too hard, probably because I relished the idea of Torres teaming up with fellow ex-Cubs prospects Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease on the South Side. That's a good narrative but not a good foundation for a trade.

 

I'm trading Giolito for the next player on our list, Brandon Lowe, so I'm going to focus my commentary here on the White Sox. Giolito is a good pitcher and a team leader in the White Sox clubhouse, a strong bounce-back candidate after a lackluster 2022 campaign and somebody Chicago should think seriously about extending. Without that extension, though, Giolito will be a free agent after next season, which is why he's on trade candidate lists in the first place.

If the White Sox were to deal Giolito and it wasn't part of a larger deal with the Rays that brought back a starter, they'd have to pivot to filling out a base rotation that includes Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn and recently signed Mike Clevinger. If they were willing to pay Clevinger $12 million on a one-year, make-good deal, then surely they'd be able to find someone comparable to fill in his slot for a season for the $10 or $11 million Giolito is likely to receive for 2023 via the arbitration system. One free agent option that leaps to mind is former White Sox starter and current free agent Jose Quintana.

Meanwhile, I love the fit for Lowe, provided his defense holds up in a post-shift world at the keystone and that he's healthy after an injury-riddled 2022 season. He would add another lefty bat to balance a White Sox lineup that still figures to tilt toward righty hitters. He adds power to a team that struggled to hit the long ball consistently in 2022. While Lowe is generally a low-average hitter, the ban of extreme shifts could help out the results on his pull-oriented swing. And, more than anything, the White Sox simply need a second baseman. Badly.

1. Jose Quintana will not be available for $12 million. 

2. The Rays have Lowe for $5 million this year, $8.7 million next year, and then 2 $10-$11 million options. I understand why the Rays would move him, they're the rays, they move guys like this to save money. However, we're talking about a guy who was a 5 win player in 2021, and a bounceback from him makes him a borderline all star.

It's not an exact comparison, but what would you think if you were the Phillies, you had Aaron Nola under control for 1 year, and the White Sox offered you Luis Robert for him? It's such a lopsided move based on the years of control and money that you have to think the White Sox realize Robert is permanently hurt, right? 

3. The Rays are taking back an $11 million pitcher? I mean, seriously? 

[Chisoxfn]

4 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Believed what?  I didn’t say Manaea is definitely better than Giolito, so I’m not sure why you would say “substantially more”.

If Giolito has another year like last year, he won’t get much in free agency after 2023. 

But Manaea is coming off a down year also, so he won’t get a big contract either. 

The big thing with Gio is he has been very durable (*knock on wood*) during his major league career (although I appreciate he has already had TJ).  The list of guys who are on the market with Gio's pedigree, age and relative reasonable contract is small.  

I would say if he were on the market - he is getting > 1yr 20M (yet his contract will be less than that - telling me he is definitely a surplus asset despite the 1 year deal).  He is also widely thought of as a strong clubhouse guy, etc. 

[Chisoxfn]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

1. Jose Quintana will not be available for $12 million. 

2. The Rays have Lowe for $5 million this year, $8.7 million next year, and then 2 $10-$11 million options. I understand why the Rays would move him, they're the rays, they move guys like this to save money. However, we're talking about a guy who was a 5 win player in 2021, and a bounceback from him makes him a borderline all star.

It's not an exact comparison, but what would you think if you were the Phillies, you had Aaron Nola under control for 1 year, and the White Sox offered you Luis Robert for him? It's such a lopsided move based on the years of control and money that you have to think the White Sox realize Robert is permanently hurt, right? 

3. The Rays are taking back an $11 million pitcher? I mean, seriously? 

All I know is I would be a fan of the move for Lowe. It has risk though and I don't know that I compare Lowe and Robert. One plays a premier defensive position with a higher upside the other doesn't have.  I think Lowe's upside is what he was - which is really good - where as Robert's upside (whether you buy it or not is something else). 

But your point is well taken.  Sometimes it also comes down to positional value. 2B don't typically get traded for as much as pitchers.  

The reality is if the Sox made this deal with the Rays, I would know we were in big trouble.  That said - if Sox / Rays were to match, is Glassnow a fit as part of this.  I would imagine Rays don't love the idea of paying him (not saying Sox would love the risk either) with the uncertainty.  

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

All I know is I would be a fan of the move for Lowe. It has risk though and I don't know that I compare Lowe and Robert. One plays a premier defensive position with a higher upside the other doesn't have.  I think Lowe's upside is what he was - which is really good - where as Robert's upside (whether you buy it or not is something else). 

But your point is well taken.  Sometimes it also comes down to positional value. 2B don't typically get traded for as much as pitchers.  

The reality is if the Sox made this deal with the Rays, I would know we were in big trouble.  That said - if Sox / Rays were to match, is Glassnow a fit as part of this.  I would imagine Rays don't love the idea of paying him (not saying Sox would love the risk either) with the uncertainty.  

Of course you'd be a fan of the move for Lowe, that's the point. Every White Sox fan would be. The White Sox getting a near all star 2b with 4 years of control for a pitcher with 1 year of control, and clearing payroll in the process?

The Rays simply would not do that unless they believed Lowe was permanently hurt. That's the point. Even if he's blocking someone else, he's worth way more than that.

If you told me the Rays were talking Kopech for Lowe, I would genuinely understand that, because Kopech has 3 years of control and even though Kopech hasn't broken out yet, the Rays could believe this is the year he does and then they have something of huge value to them.

If you told me that the Rays wanted Giolito and someone like Colas, I might buy that also, but again now you run into the "Weak white sox system" problem where about the only guys worth enough to the Rays are Montgomery (overpay for a guy who was hurt last year), Colas (needed) and the classic "multiple guys for 1" trades. 

[Chisoxfn]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Of course you'd be a fan of the move for Lowe, that's the point. Every White Sox fan would be. The White Sox getting a near all star 2b with 4 years of control for a pitcher with 1 year of control, and clearing payroll in the process?

The Rays simply would not do that unless they believed Lowe was permanently hurt. That's the point. Even if he's blocking someone else, he's worth way more than that.

If you told me the Rays were talking Kopech for Lowe, I would genuinely understand that, because Kopech has 3 years of control and even though Kopech hasn't broken out yet, the Rays could believe this is the year he does and then they have something of huge value to them.

If you told me that the Rays wanted Giolito and someone like Colas, I might buy that also, but again now you run into the "Weak white sox system" problem where about the only guys worth enough to the Rays are Montgomery (overpay for a guy who was hurt last year), Colas (needed) and the classic "multiple guys for 1" trades. 

And if the Sox got Glasnow that and maybe there was some cash or other stuff coming from the Rays back?  it isn't as silo'd as you think, just given the positional value (SP > 2B - WAR be damn).  I don't think you need to do Colas+ (I wouldn't do it from the Sox perspective than). 

I would probably give up a multiple guys type of approach if that is what it took (and I have been on record I am perfectly fine with the Sox taking that sort of path).  You don't trade Montgomery though for a player like Lowe - Lowe is good when healthy (presuming he bounces back) but he isn't worthy of inclusion in a deal for a 2B. Nope.  

[SoxBlanco]

2 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

The big thing with Gio is he has been very durable (*knock on wood*) during his major league career (although I appreciate he has already had TJ).  The list of guys who are on the market with Gio's pedigree, age and relative reasonable contract is small.  

I would say if he were on the market - he is getting > 1yr 20M (yet his contract will be less than that - telling me he is definitely a surplus asset despite the 1 year deal).  He is also widely thought of as a strong clubhouse guy, etc. 

Agreed. I think Giolito is a bargain at $10M. The only way you trade him is if you think there’s a free agent available for under $15M that you think will outproduce Giolito. 

I believe that Lucas will rebound nicely heading into a contract year, so I’m not hoping they trade him. But I’m not a scout. If a scout told me that Lucas is toast and he’ll never be close to the same pitcher he was in 2019, it’d be tough to argue after last year’s performance. Yes, the defense let him down a lot, but even just using the eye test, he looked horrible at times. 
 
So am I hoping Lucas is traded? No. But if we did trade him, I would 100% understand the move. 

[2Deep]

 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Chisoxfn said:

And if the Sox got Glasnow that and maybe there was some cash or other stuff coming from the Rays back?  it isn't as silo'd as you think, just given the positional value (SP > 2B - WAR be damn).  I don't think you need to do Colas+ (I wouldn't do it from the Sox perspective than). 

I would probably give up a multiple guys type of approach if that is what it took (and I have been on record I am perfectly fine with the Sox taking that sort of path).  You don't trade Montgomery though for a player like Lowe - Lowe is good when healthy (presuming he bounces back) but he isn't worthy of inclusion in a deal for a 2B. Nope.  

So Giolito for Glasnow? Removing Lowe entirely? 

Because Glasnow + Lowe for Giolito is even worse for the Rays, and that's what it sounds like you're saying. The Rays chose to keep Glasnow with an extension signed in August. Am I reading this right that you think Glasnow has negative value to the Rays? 

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, 2Deep said:

 

Yeah, to move him it would have to feel like an overpay on the either team's end. I'd prefer to hold onto him and bank on him being motivated for a pay day after the season.

[bmags]

I oughtta watch the Mariners more. Was surprised to see Toro here as I thought he was good, but that's because he had like a good first week right after his trade and that was about the last time I watched a mariners game.

[Chisoxfn]

26 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So Giolito for Glasnow? Removing Lowe entirely? 

Because Glasnow + Lowe for Giolito is even worse for the Rays, and that's what it sounds like you're saying. The Rays chose to keep Glasnow with an extension signed in August. Am I reading this right that you think Glasnow has negative value to the Rays? 

Yes - I am saying Glasnow may have negative value to the Rays.  Or maybe a combo. Depends on why Rays want to make a move. If they want to do something different with payroll or not ($30+M for Glasnow may be viewed as expensive on him, maybe it isn't).  I don't know that there is massive surplus value there given the uncertainty in his return.  So there is risk.  

And no I am not proposing Glasnow for Gio straight up - I would not make that move if I were the Sox (without getting something more).  

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Chisoxfn said:

Yes - I am saying Glasnow may have negative value to the Rays.  Or maybe a combo. Depends on why Rays want to make a move. If they want to do something different with payroll or not ($30+M for Glasnow may be viewed as expensive on him, maybe it isn't).  I don't know that there is massive surplus value there given the uncertainty in his return.  So there is risk.  

And no I am not proposing Glasnow for Gio straight up - I would not make that move if I were the Sox (without getting something more).  

The Rays literally extended Glasnow in August of 2022. Like 1 month before the end of the season. They could have let him walk if they thought it was a bad deal. 

[Pal]

50 minutes ago, 2Deep said:

 

Sharp decline coinciding with Spider Tack ban.

[Lip Man 1]

To me you never have enough pitching. If the Sox deal Giolito that means they have to sign someone else probably for more money than Gio's getting...in a very tight budget by all accounhts.

Deal makes no sense to me now even though I know he's gone after this year.

Now a deal at the trade deadline could be do-able all depending on what the Sox situation is at that time.

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, 2Deep said:

 

This is disingenuous, because anyone who watched Giolito in 2022 knows he wasn't the same guy he was from 2019-21. 

The big unknown is if he will gain his velocity back if he slims down. 

[Timmy U]

18 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

To me you never have enough pitching. If the Sox deal Giolito that means they have to sign someone else probably for more money than Gio's getting...in a very tight budget by all accounhts.

Deal makes no sense to me now even though I know he's gone after this year.

Now a deal at the trade deadline could be do-able all depending on what the Sox situation is at that time.

Yeah, any trade for Gio would need to bring pitching back. Seems more like the move a rebuilding team makes than a team in "their competitive window."  Now, if the FO believes the rebuild failed and needs to be tweaked, that's another matter.

[kitekrazy]

Try to fill a hole by making another one.  The screen door on a submarine.