Joey Gallo Rumor Thread

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

48 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

A bad net result ? It sounds like you are talking about just how the team does in the standings to me. I mean great if keeping Hendriks results in a .450 win percentage team and makes you a .500 team . How is that a good net result ? You do know the Sox not only still have major holes but will need so many positive results from so many guys that had negative results last year that playing any better than about .525 baseball will be extremely difficult now that the schedule is harder.

Meanwhile Hendrix inches closer to age deterioration and his arm might implode and then you net nothing from him. Trade him and gets some prospect and some payroll relief that can be reinvested in another player .That's a net positive beyond box scores and standings. You just cannot end up getting nothing for guys his age when they are still good enough to help the franchise recover from the disastrous series of decisions that lead  to the demise of the team from the start of 2021 til now.

However if Hahn does as good a job peddling Hendriks as he did peddling Kimbrel where the Sox end up trading him for one player with a  bigger contract I can understand your concern. The fact he couldn't trade Kimbrel early handicapped the whole off season.

There’s far too many people here assuming the Sox can absorb the removal of Hendriks and not experience a drop in production. There is no guarantee that Lopez and or Graveman will be as effective as Hendriks has been. I don’t think it’s wrong to say it is a gamble to use him to improve other areas that need addressing. Doesn’t mean it can’t work out in the end either - but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Sox move him and we are all bitching late-May when the Sox are struggling to close games out.

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Jose Abreu and Joey Gallo's fWAR per game played are nearly identical. 

Joey Gallo is a very flawed player, but pointing to his batting average as the sole determining factor of his value is really, really dumb. 

Exactly.  Gallo batted .199 for a full season and still put up 4.2 fWAR.  And that season was only a year ago.

[CentralChamps21]

9 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Exactly.  Gallo batted .199 for a full season and still put up 4.2 fWAR.  And that season was only a year ago.

You can be a really good player with a terrible batting average, but you have less margin for error. You have to really walk a lot and hit a ton of homers. A guy with a .300 avg has more ways to get to the same level of productivity.

That said, we had a team with a pretty good AVG last season that was an utter failure at scoring runs.

[GreenSox]

21 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Graveman doesn't like coming into the game with guys on base.  He's wants to start clean innings so he's not going to a four or five out guy or a guy who will come in to clean up someone else's mess.  That could make things very difficult if he's going to be the closer.

Any good late inning reliever, closer or not,  needs to be able to clean up someone else's mess. Graveman just wasn't very good last year.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

There’s far too many people here assuming the Sox can absorb the removal of Hendriks and not experience a drop in production. There is no guarantee that Lopez and or Graveman will be as effective as Hendriks has been. I don’t think it’s wrong to say it is a gamble to use him to improve other areas that need addressing. Doesn’t mean it can’t work out in the end either - but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Sox move him and we are all bitching late-May when the Sox are struggling to close games out.

Teams like Tampa Bay do this all the time . They swap out aging expensive (for Them ) players and replace them with in house options who are ready to step up. This is how you keep an influx of talent coming in and compete year after year.

It's just silly to say there's no guarantee Lopez or Graveman step up. There are no guarantees Bellinger , Gallo or any number of middling but expensive signings are going to go the Sox way. How did Kimbrel, Hernandez, Pollock, Kelly, Velasquez, Harrison work out. Sure spread the money around on a bunch of aging stiffs. That always seems to work out so well for Hahn.

If you legitimately think Hendrik and the rest of the guys currently on the roster are an impact playoff team sure keep Hendriks. I'm putting the odds at that happening at right about 10%. God bless you if you think it's above a 50% chance.

 I look forward to seeing Vaughn, Tim, Eloy, Robert, Gio Moncada , Lynn, Hendriks and Kopech all at the All Star game and in the playoffs

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

15 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Teams like Tampa Bay do this all the time . They swap out aging expensive (for Them ) players and replace them with in house options who are ready to step up. This is how you keep an influx of talent coming in and compete year after year.

It's just silly to say there's no guarantee Lopez or Graveman step up. There are no guarantees Bellinger , Gallo or any number of middling but expensive signings are going to go the Sox way. How did Kimbrel, Hernandez, Pollock, Kelly, Velasquez, Harrison work out. Sure spread the money around on a bunch of aging stiffs. That always seems to work out so well for Hahn.

If you legitimately think Hendrik and the rest of the guys currently on the roster are an impact playoff team sure keep Hendriks. I'm putting the odds at that happening at right about 10%. God bless you if you think it's above a 50% chance.

 I look forward to seeing Vaughn, Tim, Eloy, Robert, Gio Moncada , Lynn, Hendriks and Kopech all at the All Star game and in the playoffs

The Sox are far from the Rays. Hell, many teams aren’t like the Rays.

I also wouldn’t group Hendriks into the same category as Kelly, Harrison, etc. - he’s a legit top 3 closer in baseball. Worth every penny.

Neither of us has a crystal ball. I just like the Sox chances with Hendriks at closer over Lopez/Graveman. It’s not unproven that setup arms struggle at closer and closers struggle in setup roles. I love how Lopez broke out of the pen last year but I’m not convinced he is a future star closer in the making. I definitely fall into the category that contending teams that are serious about contending have shutdown proven closers.

Edited December 13, 2022 by CWSpalehoseCWS

[Harold's Leg Lift]

1 hour ago, SoxBlanco said:

Exactly.  Gallo batted .199 for a full season and still put up 4.2 fWAR.  And that season was only a year ago.

Abreu signed a 3yr/$58M deal at age 36 while Gallo will get 1yr/$10M at age 29.  That should tell you how severely flawed war is as an evaluation tool. 

[Bob Sacamano]

On 12/11/2022 at 5:45 PM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

They aren’t going to give Hendriks away. If they trade, I think we’ll all like the return. 

Yeah true. Same options remain at 2B which is why I’d play Sosa there. 

I think most here probably figured this. Which is why a part of me hopes a trade happens.

[Jose Abreu]

13 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Abreu signed a 3yr/$58M deal at age 36 while Gallo will get 1yr/$10M at age 29.  That should tell you how severely flawed war is as an evaluation tool. 

Considering Gallo’s fWAR dropped from 4.2 (2021) to 0.6 (2022), wouldn’t his forthcoming lower contract actually support WAR as an evaluation tool?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

50 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

The Sox are far from the Rays. Hell, many teams aren’t like the Rays.

I also wouldn’t group Hendriks into the same category as Kelly, Harrison, etc. - he’s a legit top 3 closer in baseball. Worth every penny.

Neither of us has a crystal ball. I just like the Sox chances with Hendriks at closer over Lopez/Graveman. It’s not unproven that setup arms struggle at closer and closers struggle in setup roles. I love how Lopez broke out of the pen last year but I’m not convinced he is a future star closer in the making. I definitely fall into the category that contending teams that are serious about contending have shutdown proven closers.

The Sox had about 8 players last year who had good years, Cease, Hendriks, Abreu, Cueto, Graveman, Kopech, Lopez Lambert. I base that on a minimum of 24 Starts for a Starting pitcher, 40 IP for relievers and 350 ABs for position players

The rest of them either were just outright bad or were injured too much to be counted among the good since being on the sidelines for 40% or more of the season is never good. They lost 2 of those guys. That leaves 6 guys. 6 ! And 4 of them are relievers who are usually inconsistent . Not a single one is a position player ! Hendriks has been a model of consistency but when you don't have a single solitary position player on the team who had a good year is that a reason to keep Hendriks  ?

Unless you truly believe in your heart of hearts, that the other 20 guys ,whoever they are, end up with the necessary results to make the team a lot better you are looking at a long shot.

Bad teams with good closers always trade the closer. Here's the Sox plan. Keep running the same team out there and pray for better results for the next  2 or 3 years ? Pick up cheap aging vets to fill holes and watch them disintegrate, hold onto aging vets and get nothing back for them when they walk ? If the Sox are doing poorly by the trade deadline they have to be in sell mode. I hope Hendriks manages to have a good save percentage and pitch as effectively has he has been if he is still here. I can live with Lopez closing for a .500 team. At least he's one of the 6 good players left.

Edited December 13, 2022 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[SoxBlanco]

35 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Abreu signed a 3yr/$58M deal at age 36 while Gallo will get 1yr/$10M at age 29.  That should tell you how severely flawed war is as an evaluation tool. 

If Gallo put up another 4.2 WAR season last year (so back-to-back 4.2 WAR seasons), what kind of contract do you think he would get this year? Let’s just assume his 2022 numbers were exactly the same as his 2021 numbers. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

The Sox had about 8 good player last year who had good years, Cease, Hendriks, Abreu, Cueto, Graveman, Kopech, Lopez Lambert. I base that on a minimum of 24 Starts for a Starting pitcher, 40 IP for relievers and 350 ABs for position players

The rest of them either were just outright bad or were injured too much to be counted among the good since being on the sidelines for 40% or more of the season is never good. They lost 2 of those guys. That leaves 6 guys. 6 ! And 4 of them are relievers who are usually inconsistent . Not a single one is a position player ! Hendriks has been a model of consistency but when you don't have a single solitary position player on the team who had a good year is that a reason to keep Hendriks  ?

Unless you truly believe in your heart of hearts, that the other 20 guys ,whoever they are, end up with the necessary results to make the team a lot better you are looking at a long shot.

Bad teams with good closers always trade the closer. Here's the Sox plan. Keep running the same team out there and pray for better results for the next  2 or 3 years ? Pick up cheap aging vets to fill holes and watch them disintegrate, hold onto aging vets and get nothing back for them when they walk ? If the Sox are doing poorly by the trade deadline they have to be in sell mode. I hope Hendriks manages to have a good save percentage and pitch as effectively has he has been if he is still here. I can live with Lopez closing for a .500 team. At least he's one of the 6 good players left.

Here's the basic problem. The argument you just gave says "This team will not be competitive next year and needs a substantial and significant overhaul. Virtually none of the current lineup can be counted on and an entire new core needs to be established."

If that's the case, yes, trading Hendriks makes sense, if he is able to return good value now then do so, or alternatively given the weirdness of his contract I still think the trade deadline is likely. 

None of that suggests that the current core can be fixed by trading Hendriks for a minor piece and freeing up $14 million that can go to Gallo and another reliever or Benintendi. Not only do all the same problems remain, but you have the additional issue of trying to pry away a nearly big league ready player from a team that wants to compete so much that they're trading for a closer, which is a difficult proposition to work out (if the Dodgers, for example, thought they had a solid OF contributor for next year out of your favorite guy, they're going to hesitate to part with him for a closer when they need OF depth themselves). 

[ChiSox59]

4 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

If Gallo put up another 4.2 WAR season last year (so back-to-back 4.2 WAR seasons), what kind of contract do you think he would get this year? Let’s just assume his 2022 numbers were exactly the same as his 2021 numbers. 

4/$60-70M. 

Edited December 13, 2022 by ChiSox59

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Here's the basic problem. The argument you just gave says "This team will not be competitive next year and needs a substantial and significant overhaul. Virtually none of the current lineup can be counted on and an entire new core needs to be established."

If that's the case, yes, trading Hendriks makes sense, if he is able to return good value now then do so, or alternatively given the weirdness of his contract I still think the trade deadline is likely. 

None of that suggests that the current core can be fixed by trading Hendriks for a minor piece and freeing up $14 million that can go to Gallo and another reliever or Benintendi. Not only do all the same problems remain, but you have the additional issue of trying to pry away a nearly big league ready player from a team that wants to compete so much that they're trading for a closer, which is a difficult proposition to work out (if the Dodgers, for example, thought they had a solid OF contributor for next year out of your favorite guy, they're going to hesitate to part with him for a closer when they need OF depth themselves). 

I never said the Sox can be fixed. I have fleeting hope enough players can rebound to let them compete in a poor division but that just fans the flames of the Sox to keep doing what Hahn does which isn't good. It's ALMOST a no win position they are in but if Hahn and JR treat the upcoming years like they treated Kimbrel's option then that means trying to save face with their original plan until however many years that is expires then another rebuild ?

My only hope is that the Sox can somehow fill a couple of holes AND enough players can rebound to keep them in serious contention without Hendriks but I'm not diluting myself into thinking that will actually happen. So I trade Hendriks and get a start on whatever is going to happen whenever the clowns decide the window has finally closed.

[maxjusttyped]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Abreu signed a 3yr/$58M deal at age 36 while Gallo will get 1yr/$10M at age 29.  That should tell you how severely flawed war is as an evaluation tool. 

Abreu is coming off a 4 win season and generated 31M of value last season. He's projected by steamer to be a 2.5 WAR player next year, which comes out to a little over 20M in value. Abreu was a much better player last season, obviously, and projects much better than Gallo for 2023 as well.

Try again.

Edited December 13, 2022 by maxjusttyped

[Harold's Leg Lift]

1 hour ago, maxjusttyped said:

Abreu is coming off a 4 win season and generated 31M of value last season. He's projected by steamer to be a 2.5 WAR player next year, which comes out to a little over 20M in value. Abreu was a much better player last season, obviously, and projects much better than Gallo for 2023 as well.

Try again.

I'm not the one trying to compare a s%*# turd to one of the best hitters in the game.  

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

17 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I'm not the one trying to compare a s%*# turd to one of the best hitters in the game.  

Abreu is one of the best hitters in the game? I wonder how many players had over 15 homers, or a .824 OPS.  I'd wager, a lot more than a few. I don't think anyone is arguing Abreu>>Gallo. The question was, what would Gallo's contract be this year if he put up another 4 win season like he did in 2021.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Just now, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Abreu is one of the best hitters in the game? I wonder how many players had over 15 homers, or a .824 OPS.  I'd wager, a lot more than a few. I don't think anyone is arguing Abreu>>Gallo. The question was, what would Gallo's contract be this year if he put up another 4 win season like he did in 2021.

Abreu’s production over the past 4-5 seasons is near the top in the MLB. Look how many years he either led or was near the top in RBI production. He is absolutely one of the most consistent hitters in the league. I don’t doubt for a second he tops his “down” year of 15 HR’s on the Astros.

[Dick Allen]

33 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Abreu is one of the best hitters in the game? I wonder how many players had over 15 homers, or a .824 OPS.  I'd wager, a lot more than a few. I don't think anyone is arguing Abreu>>Gallo. The question was, what would Gallo's contract be this year if he put up another 4 win season like he did in 2021.

22 qualified had a higher OPS last year than Abreu. So less than 1 per team. I would put that at one of the best.

[4uckOffCommieScum]

Hitting .304 with a .379 obp in 2022 is pretty much the equivalent of hitting .325 with .415 obp five or six years ago. Have to consider how bad offensive numbers have been the last couple years league wide. Abreu was essentially as good a hitter as he always has been, relative to the league

[LittleHurtCG]

On 12/13/2022 at 11:24 AM, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

There’s far too many people here assuming the Sox can absorb the removal of Hendriks and not experience a drop in production. There is no guarantee that Lopez and or Graveman will be as effective as Hendriks has been. I don’t think it’s wrong to say it is a gamble to use him to improve other areas that need addressing. Doesn’t mean it can’t work out in the end either - but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Sox move him and we are all bitching late-May when the Sox are struggling to close games out.

Agree 100%. Removing Hendricks from the bullpen makes it extremely weaker. 

Also, if closers are so fungible now and anyone can be one, then I'm not sure that Hendricks has that much value on the trade market anyways. 

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, LittleHurtCG said:

Agree 100%. Removing Hendricks from the bullpen makes it extremely weaker. 

Also, if closers are so fungible now and anyone can be one, then I'm not sure that Hendricks has that much value on the trade market anyways. 

True anyone in theory can be a closer but MLB is also littered with guys who tried it and failed.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

40 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

True anyone in theory can be a closer but MLB is also littered with guys who tried it and failed.

Exactly. It’s not to say that moving Hendriks isn’t the best course of action to make this team more complete or competitive (because you simply won’t know that until you have hindsight), but let’s also not act like moving him isn’t something that could become a seriously problematic issue and hamper the teams ability to compete.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, LittleHurtCG said:

Agree 100%. Removing Hendricks from the bullpen makes it extremely weaker. 

Also, if closers are so fungible now and anyone can be one, then I'm not sure that Hendricks has that much value on the trade market anyways. 

Some people have suggested that based on the market for relievers, one like Hendriks being available for $14 million is a pretty good arrangement, even if his luxury tax number is higher. This is probably true, he does have substantial value in this market.

I've also believed that he has a strong likelihood of being worth more at the trade deadline, if he is healthy. The White Sox are not the only team that will pay highly for closers at the trade deadline, The Braves, for example, took on all of Iglesias's back-loaded contract at the trade deadline last year and gave up a decent enough pitching prospect who was previously in the top 5-6 in Atlanta's system before some forearm issues in 2021.

However, the teams that would be willing to take on a $14 million a year closer are teams that are looking to compete themselves. The only team that trades for highly priced closers when they're winning 60 games is the White Sox, no one else thinks that's smart. Those teams are always hesitant to give up major-league-ready players, because major-league-ready players are guys who can contribute to big league rosters this season on those competitive teams. 

To my eyes, Hendriks could bring back a solid return, but it's a rebuilding return. You're unlikely to get back a big league quality piece for him, because your trade partner would rather have the cost controlled big league piece than a closer. 

[kitekrazy]

On 12/12/2022 at 9:18 AM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

What do you mean by this? Lopez was going to the bullpen regardless. 

I'm talking about replacing the current closer.