Lightning in a Bottle; Sox have amazing year?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

20 hours ago, Tony said:

With perfect health and players performing to their high-end ceilings....the team could be very good. If you take each players best year, and insert all of those numbers into a lineup of Anderson-Moncada-Eloy-Robert-Vaughn-Grandal-Benintendi, that team can hit the hell out of the baseball. Same goes for the pitching staff.

The problem, of course, is that both of those things are totally unrealistic. Staying on the field has been a huge problem for most of the guys listed above, and we haven't seen those "high ceiling" numbers from a number of them in a while. 

So do with that what you will. 

The injuries to Eloy and Robert have basically ruined the rebuild. They have played in only 57.8% of eligible games since signing their extensions. What makes it even more devastating is how few games they have played together when each was at their best. This cannot be emphasized enough !!! Not even going to try to figure out Moncada at this point.

I have compiled this from the 2020, 2021, and 2022 seasons. any games with  1 PA or defensive replacement games I didn't count. Basically trying to get at least 5 innings played together each game. I may have missed a game or 2 but this is very accurate compiled from batting game logs.

2020 was the year they played the most games together. It was only a 60 game season and they played 49 games together. That "year" was peak Eloy. Unfortunately it was Roberts rookie year. He flashed a great glove but still was raw at the plate, .738 OPS. Also unfortunately despite this being the short season it would be the most games they ever played together. Eloy at his best, Robert a rookie and .738 OPS

2021 Roberts break out hitting "year", .938 OPS. Unfortunately his year only lasted 68 games. The torn hip flexor kept him out over 2 months but surprisingly he hit even better when he came back. Unfortunately 2021was Eloy's worst year (55 games played .740 OPS) due to the torn pec he suffered in Spring Training. Only 29 games played together.

2022 More injuries for both. 84 games for Eloy and 98 games for Robert. Once again we saw near peak Eloy. Unfortunately Robert tried to play through injuries and dizzy spells and was barely better than he was his rookie year. This was the singles hitting Robert. Swinging at everything. BB% worst of his career but K% best of his career.ISO 1st time under.200  was .142. Together they only played 32 games and once again couldn't get both at their peaks at the same time.

They have only played 110 games together of a possible 384 games in 3 year. Not once where each of them playing their best at the same time.

Both at their peak performances together in 140 games  would go a LONG way to making the Sox so much better. But injury free years and both at peak performance at the same time has never happened. One of these years maybe that can happen and if it does watch out baseball !

 

[ChiSox59]

25 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

The injuries to Eloy and Robert have basically ruined the rebuild. They have played in only 57.8% of eligible games since signing their extensions. What makes it even more devastating is how few games they have played together when each was at their best. This cannot be emphasized enough !!! Not even going to try to figure out Moncada at this point.

I have compiled this from the 2020, 2021, and 2022 seasons. any games with  1 PA or defensive replacement games I didn't count. Basically trying to get at least 5 innings played together each game. I may have missed a game or 2 but this is very accurate compiled from batting game logs.

2020 was the year they played the most games together. It was only a 60 game season and they played 49 games together. That "year" was peak Eloy. Unfortunately it was Roberts rookie year. He flashed a great glove but still was raw at the plate, .738 OPS. Also unfortunately despite this being the short season it would be the most games they ever played together. Eloy at his best, Robert a rookie and .738 OPS

2021 Roberts break out hitting "year", .938 OPS. Unfortunately his year only lasted 68 games. The torn hip flexor kept him out over 2 months but surprisingly he hit even better when he came back. Unfortunately 2021was Eloy's worst year (55 games played .740 OPS) due to the torn pec he suffered in Spring Training. Only 29 games played together.

2022 More injuries for both. 84 games for Eloy and 98 games for Robert. Once again we saw near peak Eloy. Unfortunately Robert tried to play through injuries and dizzy spells and was barely better than he was his rookie year. This was the singles hitting Robert. Swinging at everything. BB% worst of his career but K% best of his career.ISO 1st time under.200  was .142. Together they only played 32 games and once again couldn't get both at their peaks at the same time.

They have only played 110 games together of a possible 384 games in 3 year. Not once where each of them playing their best at the same time.

Both at their peak performances together in 140 games  would go a LONG way to making the Sox so much better. But injury free years and both at peak performance at the same time has never happened. One of these years maybe that can happen and if it does watch out baseball !

 

Nice post.  Sox are going to be really good if Robert, Eloy and TA each play 130+ games.  

Add in even just modest bouncebacks from Moncada and Yaz, and even better.

Lot of ifs though.  

Edited January 13, 2023 by ChiSox59

[Good Guys]

I think much of the success of the 2023 White Sox will depend on Grifol.  Without Abreu and now Liam, the clubhouse will be looking for leadership.  I think Grifol could make a major impact.  

[Highland]

One thing this team will have to prove is that they will hold up under a tough division race. In 2021, they had no real challenge, and even the clinching was anti-climatic. Last season they looked like they not prepared for the late season Guardians series, and they were swept in their own ballpark. They will need at least 90 wins to win the division. There will be no easy path.

[ChiSox59]

16 minutes ago, Highland said:

One thing this team will have to prove is that they will hold up under a tough division race. In 2021, they had no real challenge, and even the clinching was anti-climatic. Last season they looked like they not prepared for the late season Guardians series, and they were swept in their own ballpark. They will need at least 90 wins to win the division. There will be no easy path.

I think they just ran out of gas.  They had been playing pretty good ball since Tony had left the team.  But they knew they needed to sweep that series, and after losing the first one in heartbreaking fashion, I think all the air in the balloon was simply gone.   Sox went on to lose 8 in a row stretching the lead from 3.5 GB to 11, and making the race looks much more lopsided than it really was.   

Edited January 18, 2023 by ChiSox59

[35thstreetswarm]

I'm as frustrated as anybody about 2021 and the FO, but the Sox have to be high on any knowledgeable fan's list of teams to watch for big turnaround years.  Last year was cursed in almost every way, and the TLR phenomenon seemed to infect everything. A little health and just a league-average, non-destructive manager could go a very long way.  Lots of ifs, though, as other posters have said.

[Snopek]

23 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I'm as frustrated as anybody about 2021 and the FO, but the Sox have to be high on any knowledgeable fan's list of teams to watch for big turnaround years.  Last year was cursed in almost every way, and the TLR phenomenon seemed to infect everything. A little health and just a league-average, non-destructive manager could go a very long way.  Lots of ifs, though, as other posters have said.

I don’t disagree with this, but it continues to be incredibly frustrating that they put all their eggs in the bounce back basket.

Like, hey assholes, you know you can make internal improvements AND add more players from the outside to fill holes, right? No? You’re just gonna count on everyone staying healthy and bouncing back? Okay then.

[Tnetennba]

31 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I'm as frustrated as anybody about 2021 and the FO, but the Sox have to be high on any knowledgeable fan's list of teams to watch for big turnaround years.  Last year was cursed in almost every way, and the TLR phenomenon seemed to infect everything. A little health and just a league-average, non-destructive manager could go a very long way.  Lots of ifs, though, as other posters have said.

It's just hard to get exciting about the fact that we are banking on said bounce back from seemingly most of the roster.  Not exactly the most inspiring place to be a month before pre-season starts.

[pcq]

White Sox diagnosed with Non-Hendriks Bullpen Myopia.

[gogosox1959]

Morosi picks Sox to win division - just need to be healthy and return to normal exp\ected numbers - no super improvement needed.  (on twitter, but can't find the link)

[Chick Mercedes]

5 hours ago, gogosox1959 said:

Morosi picks Sox to win division - just need to be healthy and return to normal exp\ected numbers - no super improvement needed.  (on twitter, but can't find the link)

Is there a ‘per 9 innings, 162 games’  stat like the NBA’s ‘per 36 mpg’  stat? We need them to all have stats reflecting the former.

[WBWSF]

6 hours ago, gogosox1959 said:

Morosi picks Sox to win division - just need to be healthy and return to normal exp\ected numbers - no super improvement needed.  (on twitter, but can't find the link)

Its going to be a Playoff year for the White Sox in 2023 IF the team stays healthy.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

12 hours ago, WBWSF said:

Its going to be a Playoff year for the White Sox in 2023 IF the team stays healthy.

But even with a normal amount of injuries the bench sucks. That's why people wanted Duvall or Andrus or Iglesias or Lowe. Colas could stay healthy but struggle. 2nd base could struggle. Grandal might be done even if healthy and Moncada as usual is a mystery. Clevinger could not be good, Kopech and Giolito too. No closer  so the BP could be a mess.

[Saufley]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

But even with a normal amount of injuries the bench sucks. That's why people wanted Duvall or Andrus or Iglesias or Lowe. Colas could stay healthy but struggle. 2nd base could struggle. Grandal might be done even if healthy and Moncada as usual is a mystery. Clevinger could not be good, Kopech and Giolito too. No closer  so the BP could be a mess.

Seems like it is going to be a "What - Me Worry" kind of year.

[Balta1701]

On 1/20/2023 at 10:21 PM, gogosox1959 said:

Morosi picks Sox to win division - just need to be healthy and return to normal exp\ected numbers - no super improvement needed.  (on twitter, but can't find the link)

One I really wish people would understand- they need WAY more than just to stay healthy. They lost some to injury last year, but they offset a lot of their injury losses with ridiculous performances from Cueto, Andrus, Zavala, and a couple others - some of those you would never repeat if you replayed the season a thousand times.  And no matter how many dumb decisions their manager made, they also outplayed their projected record by several games thanks to a stellar performance in 1-run games - either surprisingly lucky or some actual decent coaching. And from there, they’ve lost Abreu, now they’ve lost Hendriks. 

Their ZiPS record is below .500 and in third place in the division, and that includes a lot of guys being healthier than last year and pretty well justified expected numbers. That didn’t include Benintendi, but it has the White Sox with one of the best bullpens in baseball led by their top reliever, Hendriks.

They need a lot of guys to return to form or even break out. If Robert is only a .790 OPS guy but healthy (same as last year before the wrist injury), he’s a very good player, but not an all star in this league and that doesn’t make this a title team. If Vaughn puts up a .815 OPS, that’s better than any year of his career and pretty weak for replacing Abreu. That’s where ZiPS has them both, and neither were great. If Giolito isn’t strong without the sticky stuff, then their rotation is pretty weak. If Lynn and Kelly are healthier but have inconsistent stretches because of their ages, that’s not a health problem and it is a huge issue. If Moncada has fewer injuries but still hits .230, that’s not a strong 3b. If the rookies aren’t really good, then they have several lineup black holes. I can keep doing this, there’s SO MANY. Grandal. Eloy. Bummer. Anderson (see his defense last year). Their entire bench.

On top of that, Cleveland could absolutely be better than last year. Super young team, extremely talented, one of the leagues best coaches, they could win this division even if a lot of things go right for the White Sox. The division could easily be stronger than last year, the White Sox beat up Detroit and Detroit was WAY more injured than the White Sox - we had a series against them when their top 5 starting pitchers were on the IL. Just imagine the losing streak if that happened to the White Sox, it might be 25 games. If Detroit plays better, that’s a big worry, and you no longer get 19 games against them, you get to face all the NLs teams including the NL East.

They need tons of guys to return to form in things that had nothing to do with injury. Plus, they need tons of guys to break out into what they’ve never been. And then they need other teams not to step up and outperform them. Just to talk about this as a 90 win team they need nearly everything to go right. Not just injuries, almost no one can disappoint, which is a tough standard.

It isn’t impossible, it could absolutely happen, but it is way more than just staying healthy. No one should underestimate how much needs to go differently here. If they are healthier than last year but everyone performs like they did last year they might finish in 4th place. They need these guys to fundamentally transform into different players from what they were last year.

That’s why it’s not just health, it’s a setup where Grifol will absolutely deserve manager of the year if it happens. He has to coach a lot of guys into players that they have never been or where you’d be stunned if they pulled it off at their ages. It can happen, but boy after last year I hate hearing people talk about how simple this will be, how all it takes is a little better health, and how they don’t respect our opponents after all the braggadocio last year about how easy it would be and how that worked out.

[vilehoopster]

I could not disagree with Balta's comments right above me more. I said this in another post much earlier and I'll say it again: I don't think you can overestimate the effect that LaRussa managing this team had on the players and the last two seasons. I think the first season, the Sox, as professionals, were able to stay on tasks and their pride could keep them at a good level to compete. But by the second year, with baseball being such a mental game, the players were worn down. If day after day, them kept coming in to wanting to play and win and to encounter an inarticulate clown (who seemed to have complete, unquestioned control to make any goofy-ass decision), that had to create such a mental burden that just pulled last's year's team into a miasma of stink. There has to be a point where, even with the most motivated and professional of players, where they had to start thinking WTF, why am I even trying. If we, the fans, were pulling our hair out with the lineups, in-game decisions, incomprehensible post-game comments, and ton of stuff we have no idea about, think about what that did to the players. I think a lot of those lingering injuries were LaRussaitis: Players figuring, "Why should I bother to work hard and get healthy just to return to that sh*t show? Even with Abreu and Hendricks gone, LaRussa being gone will mean, at least, a ten game improvement. Ten games at least. 

I don't think the Sox need an amazing year to win the division; they just need an okay year to win it. Last year their playing so badly was the amazing year. (Well, with LaRussa as manager, not amazing at all, but to be somewhat expected and understood). Even if injuries don't improve (but I think they will) I still expect the Sox to win the division. If they clearly improve on injuries, I expect the division will be over by September 10. 

Also, I don't buy for a minute that Cleveland is so damn good. Cleveland didn't win the division; the White Sox lost it. After LaRussa left, the Sox somewhat quickly started gaining on the Guardians (without TA and all the other problems). The margin that Cleveland won the division by is completely deceptive. 

I agree with Chisox59 100%

I think they just ran out of gas.  They had been playing pretty good ball since Tony had left the team.  But they knew they needed to sweep that series, and after losing the first one in heartbreaking fashion, I think all the air in the balloon was simply gone.   Sox went on to lose 8 in a row stretching the lead from 3.5 GB to 11, and making the race look much more lopsided than it really was. 

I expect no more than last year from Moncada or Grandal. But I expect TA and Giolito to be back to their regular form this year (TA because he is very motivated, and Giolito because with losing that bulk and being motivated by his contract year (and again: LaRussa is gone will help those two with all others). 

I don't know about Eloy avoiding injury any better this year, but i know our outfield defense will be much better. And I expect to see a lot more of and a lot better Luis Robert. Totally my opinion, if anyone suffered from LaRussaitis, it was Robert. All the difference in the world this year. 

I would be shocked if your pitching isn't better than last year. Will Clevenger be as good as Cueto? Maybe, but you can't say probably. But I expect Lynn, Giolito, and Cease to all be better, with Kopech remaining inconsistent. Even with Hendrick gone; I expect the bullpen to be, at least, as good. Again, a large part of that has to be with LaRussa gone to manage it. 

Also, let me restate, I can't believe Cleveland is that good. Everyone thought they are crap at the start of last year. The Sox pissed away the year (thanks Jerry or giving us LaRussa), and Cleveland steps in and accepts the gift. How is it they're suddenly so good? Not buying it. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

20 hours ago, vilehoopster said:

I could not disagree with Balta's comments right above me more. I said this in another post much earlier and I'll say it again: I don't think you can overestimate the effect that LaRussa managing this team had on the players and the last two seasons. I think the first season, the Sox, as professionals, were able to stay on tasks and their pride could keep them at a good level to compete. But by the second year, with baseball being such a mental game, the players were worn down. If day after day, them kept coming in to wanting to play and win and to encounter an inarticulate clown (who seemed to have complete, unquestioned control to make any goofy-ass decision), that had to create such a mental burden that just pulled last's year's team into a miasma of stink. There has to be a point where, even with the most motivated and professional of players, where they had to start thinking WTF, why am I even trying. If we, the fans, were pulling our hair out with the lineups, in-game decisions, incomprehensible post-game comments, and ton of stuff we have no idea about, think about what that did to the players. I think a lot of those lingering injuries were LaRussaitis: Players figuring, "Why should I bother to work hard and get healthy just to return to that sh*t show? Even with Abreu and Hendricks gone, LaRussa being gone will mean, at least, a ten game improvement. Ten games at least. 

I don't think the Sox need an amazing year to win the division; they just need an okay year to win it. Last year their playing so badly was the amazing year. (Well, with LaRussa as manager, not amazing at all, but to be somewhat expected and understood). Even if injuries don't improve (but I think they will) I still expect the Sox to win the division. If they clearly improve on injuries, I expect the division will be over by September 10. 

Also, I don't buy for a minute that Cleveland is so damn good. Cleveland didn't win the division; the White Sox lost it. After LaRussa left, the Sox somewhat quickly started gaining on the Guardians (without TA and all the other problems). The margin that Cleveland won the division by is completely deceptive. 

I agree with Chisox59 100%

I think they just ran out of gas.  They had been playing pretty good ball since Tony had left the team.  But they knew they needed to sweep that series, and after losing the first one in heartbreaking fashion, I think all the air in the balloon was simply gone.   Sox went on to lose 8 in a row stretching the lead from 3.5 GB to 11, and making the race look much more lopsided than it really was. 

I expect no more than last year from Moncada or Grandal. But I expect TA and Giolito to be back to their regular form this year (TA because he is very motivated, and Giolito because with losing that bulk and being motivated by his contract year (and again: LaRussa is gone will help those two with all others). 

I don't know about Eloy avoiding injury any better this year, but i know our outfield defense will be much better. And I expect to see a lot more of and a lot better Luis Robert. Totally my opinion, if anyone suffered from LaRussaitis, it was Robert. All the difference in the world this year. 

I would be shocked if your pitching isn't better than last year. Will Clevenger be as good as Cueto? Maybe, but you can't say probably. But I expect Lynn, Giolito, and Cease to all be better, with Kopech remaining inconsistent. Even with Hendrick gone; I expect the bullpen to be, at least, as good. Again, a large part of that has to be with LaRussa gone to manage it. 

Also, let me restate, I can't believe Cleveland is that good. Everyone thought they are crap at the start of last year. The Sox pissed away the year (thanks Jerry or giving us LaRussa), and Cleveland steps in and accepts the gift. How is it they're suddenly so good? Not buying it. 

I' stuck between you and Balta. You put entirely too much blame on LaRussa and the player's attitudes playing under him as if they weren't motivated to play well. I despise that kind of thinking. It portrays the players as weak minded or on the level with fans , frustrated and without reason to play well. Well, how about all the millions of dollars they make and the impact poor performance can have on future money they make ?

And yes Cleveland is good, very good. They play hard, they hustle. They have a guy like Jose Ramirez setting an example. They had rookies play well, they have a deep farm system and more pitching on the way. Their 1 and 3 prospects are both starting pitchers. They have another top rookie in Bo Naylor coming. 14 of their top 23 rookie ETA is either 2022 or 2023 so they have young depth.

Only 6 of the Sox top 23 prospects have an ETA or 2022/2023 , Colas, Sosa, Rodriguez, Cespedes , Bilous and the reliever they just got from the Giants, Santos, in an incredibly weaker system. Bilous is the only starting pitcher listed with an ETA of 2023 and he's way down the list at 22 in a much weaker system.

While the Guardians invest less in payroll they offset it with really investing in their farm system. I think they signed somewhere around 25 IFA whereas for now the Sox are at 9.

The Guardians have 2 DSL teams while the Sox have 1. JR at his finest.

If we were expecting some better luck with health it hasn't exactly gone according to plan with the loss of Hendriks before the season has started. The Sox have no starting pitching depth, no position player depth, no OF depth. Too much has to go right and when it goes wrong they don't have the depth to fix it. You'd think after 3 years of never getting top performances out of Robert and Eloy teamed together they would at least have provided some quality OF depth like Duvall to cover  for that, But nope.

2 of their best bench pieces have nowhere to play due to their gloves, Burger and Sheets. Counting on the BP to be still good after Hendriks loss is like flipping a coin and expecting heads 6 out 10 times. Expecting career years and enough health from the starters to cover for the woeful lack of depth and is a very bad plan. What can go wrong ?

[WBWSF]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I' stuck between you and Balta. You put entirely too much blame on LaRussa and the player's attitudes playing under him as if they weren't motivated to play well. I despise that kind of thinking. It portrays the players as weak minded or on the level with fans , frustrated and without reason to play well. Well, how about all the millions of dollars they make and the impact poor performance can have on future money they make ?

And yes Cleveland is good, very good. They play hard, they hustle. They have a guy like Jose Ramirez setting an example. They had rookies play well, they have a deep farm system and more pitching on the way. Their 1 and 3 prospects are both starting pitchers. They have another top rookie in Bo Naylor coming. 14 of their top 23 rookie ETA is either 2022 or 2023 so they have young depth.

Only 6 of the Sox top 23 prospects have an ETA or 2022/2023 , Colas, Sosa, Rodriguez, Cespedes , Bilous and the reliever they just got from the Giants, Santos, in an incredibly weaker system. Bilous is the only starting pitcher listed with an ETA of 2023 and he's way down the list at 22 in a much weaker system.

While the Guardians invest less in payroll they offset it with really investing in their farm system. I think they signed somewhere around 25 IFA whereas for now the Sox are at 9.

The Guardians have 2 DSL teams while the Sox have 1. JR at his finest.

If we were expecting some better luck with health it hasn't exactly gone according to plan with the loss of Hendriks before the season has started. The Sox have no starting pitching depth, no position player depth, no OF depth. Too much has to go right and when it goes wrong they don't have the depth to fix it. You'd think after 3 years of never getting top performances out of Robert and Eloy teamed together they would at least have provided some quality OF depth like Duvall to cover  for that, But nope.

2 of their best bench pieces have nowhere to play due to their gloves, Burger and Sheets. Counting on the BP to be still good after Hendriks loss is like flipping a coin and expecting heads 6 out 10 times. Expecting career years and enough health from the starters to cover for the woeful lack of depth and is a very bad plan. What can go wrong ?

The White Sox are going to the 2023 Playoffs.

[Highland]

2 hours ago, WBWSF said:

The White Sox are going to the 2023 Playoffs.

This doesn't mean the White Sox will have an amazing year.

I expected some amazing things after the 2020 season. Eloy and Robert looked like they were about to become an amazing middle part of the lineup and bring some real offense. It hasn't worked out that way.

Not having LaRussa will help. But not everything can be blamed on LaRussa. I feel the same as I did last year. I know the team has talent, but I don't know if it will all meld together.  During the early stages of the 2021 season, the White Sox were called the best team in the American League by many baseball observers. I don't hear that so much now.