The White Sox over/under for 2023 wins is 83.5

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, maxjusttyped said:

Sox had lost the 2nd most net fWAR over the off-season and would be closing in hard on #1 if you factor in Liam & Clevinger.

Which is why I struggle to find optimism for a team that looks worse on paper than the 81 win debacle of last season.  Way too many things have to go right while hoping real hard they stay relatively healthy.  It’s a tough sell. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

15 hours ago, fathom said:

Still crazy to me how the Sox haven’t done a single thing the last month to provide depth if Hendriks is out for the year and/or Clevinger never pitches here.  It’s sickening how little they care about contending. Based on how this offseason went, I wish they blew up the whole thing.

At this point you have to figure they're waiting for MLB to hand down the suspension so they know how much they can recoup from that awful signing.  No one knows what's taking MLB so long but if it drags into spring training it's going to get real interesting.  The shits gonna hit the fan then boy and that's the last thing they want to have happen.  

[he gone.]

15 hours ago, ChiSoxTrojan said:

Off topic and has nothing to do with his impending free agency, but since you brought up Giolito, earlier today I was looking at his splits from last year and noticed that his monthly ERAs in the second half were far worse than his monthly FIP numbers. He had a bad June (coinciding with the sticky stuff crackdown), but his second half FIP was 3.79 (ERA was 5.15). Here's the breakdown by month:

• Mar/Apr: 2.57 ERA, 3.11 FIP
• May: 4.13 ERA, 4.42 FIP
• June: 7.67 ERA, 6.00 FIP
• July: 5.00 ERA, 3.63 FIP
• Aug: 5.68 ERA, 3.74 FIP
• Sep/Oct: 3.48 ERA, 3.23 FIP

 

 

Hopefully along with the reported changes to his offseason conditioning we get to see a nice bounce back.

Yep, the Gio hate among the fan base is/was unwarranted. Much like I wanted to do with Rodon during his breakout season, I would try to "overpay" for him before his market develops. At that time I was hoping to something like 4/60 when people were scared of his arm. Basically give more when there are questions marks. 

It's a bit harder with Gio as he's had success and as you point out last year wasn't really that bad. He also seems like the guy who wants to test the market and get back out west. (angels to me is the no-brainer). Last off-season's numbers also don't help. Bassitt at 3/60, Walker at 4/72, Eovaldi 2/34

I'd think he's in that range of AAV of $17-22mm. So we're talking a commitment of maybe 4/84mm? with an option for like $25mm on a 5th year based on some metrics? Based on the SP outlook/depth I think it's massively important to retain our pitching talent, otherwise the dream is even more dead than it is currently. 

[GREEDY]

16 hours ago, fathom said:

Still crazy to me how the Sox haven’t done a single thing the last month to provide depth if Hendriks is out for the year and/or Clevinger never pitches here.  It’s sickening how little they care about contending. Based on how this offseason went, I wish they blew up the whole thing.

What if they planned on trading a reliever to clear room on the budget?

Now they can't.

What if Clevinger isn't completely coming off the books because he is guilty of being a scumbag not an actual domestic abuser?

So if you already busted the budget, you likely can't spend a penny until you get some clarity on douchebag's suspension.

Do you still trade Kelly or Graveman now and use the money sign Wacha?  Feels like a wiser dice roll in the bullpen than a completely vacant 5th starter spot.  

It was widely reported that the Sox were up against the high end of their budget BEFORE signing the largest free agent deal in club history.  I'm guessing the front office is shitting bricks right now.  

[fathom]

57 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

At this point you have to figure they're waiting for MLB to hand down the suspension so they know how much they can recoup from that awful signing.  No one knows what's taking MLB so long but if it drags into spring training it's going to get real interesting.  The shits gonna hit the fan then boy and that's the last thing they want to have happen.  

I’m looking forward to which of our WBC players forget that there is stricter drug testing for that event. It wouldn’t lead to MLB suspension, but would be another embarrassing story.

[Bob Sacamano]

14 minutes ago, fathom said:

I’m looking forward to which of our WBC players forget that there is stricter drug testing for that event. It wouldn’t lead to MLB suspension, but would be another embarrassing story.

Over/Under how many of our guys have an injury during the WBC and miss time at the beginning of the season: 1.5

[Snopek]

11 hours ago, Tnetennba said:

Which is why I struggle to find optimism for a team that looks worse on paper than the 81 win debacle of last season.  Way too many things have to go right while hoping real hard they stay relatively healthy.  It’s a tough sell. 

Counterpoint: Rick and co are going to hope harder than they’ve ever hoped before. Don’t you dare underestimate the power…of trying to get the universe to fix your problems for you.

[Tnetennba]

31 minutes ago, Snopek said:

Counterpoint: Rick and co are going to hope harder than they’ve ever hoped before. Don’t you dare underestimate the power…of trying to get the universe to fix your problems for you.

No one in human history has tried harder by actually doing the bare minimum than these dopes.

[bmags]

3 hours ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Over/Under how many of our guys have an injury during the WBC and miss time at the beginning of the season: 1.5

It may not be missed time but it's 100% going to be an excuse for slow starts or wearing down. 

[Lip Man 1]

3 hours ago, Snopek said:

Counterpoint: Rick and co are going to hope harder than they’ve ever hoped before. Don’t you dare underestimate the power…of trying to get the universe to fix your problems for you.

Unfortunately hope is not a strategy nor does it usually mean success.

[LittleHurtCG]

16 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

Especially since Hahn, at the Benintendi press conference, said they weren't a finished product. Since that quote, which is now a month old, they have acquired 0 MLB players

You haven't figured out that Hahn is a mealy mouthed liar by now? 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 2/2/2023 at 7:34 PM, maxjusttyped said:

Sox had lost the 2nd most net fWAR over the off-season and would be closing in hard on #1 if you factor in Liam & Clevinger.

You have to factor in Liam  but not Clevinger since you can't lose what you never had.

[maxjusttyped]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

You have to factor in Liam  but not Clevinger since you can't lose what you never had.

You're right. The only reason I referenced him at all is because his production was being factored in when I first saw the numbers.

[Rounding_Third]

Over/under 25lbs for combined offseason weight gained by:

Jimemez

Robert

Lynn

Lynn could be good for 20 all by himself.  Loves his beer & pizza!

 

[Dam8610]

On 2/1/2023 at 9:03 PM, Balta1701 said:

This reminds me of that guy who bet $1.4 million on the Jaguars to lose when they were down 27, would have won $11,500 had he won, and lost the $1.4 million when they came back.

I wouldn't take those odds.

[Texsox]

I'll take the under. Always the under. You can't lose on the emotion. 

Then it's either being right or pleasantly surprised.

Take the over and be wrong and disappointed or right and happy. 

 

[4uckOffCommieScum]

I don’t think I’d be happy about the Sox losing even if I bet on them to, but then, I am an actual Sox fan

[Texsox]

1 hour ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

I don’t think I’d be happy about the Sox losing even if I bet on them to, but then, I am an actual Sox fan

I wouldn't actually bet the under. This is more about my expectations. If expecting them to win 90 games makes you feel like a bigger Sox fan than someone who expects 80 wins, I'm happy for you. 

[4uckOffCommieScum]

5 minutes ago, Texsox said:

I wouldn't actually bet the under. This is more about my expectations. If expecting them to win 90 games makes you feel like a bigger Sox fan than someone who expects 80 wins, I'm happy for you. 

Your ability to extrapolate upon my simple comment and attribute that extrapolation to me is impressive

[Texsox]

26 minutes ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

Your ability to extrapolate upon my simple comment and attribute that extrapolation to me is impressive

Upon further review by the figurative replay official, I'll withdraw my extrapolation of your comment and take a five yard penalty.

Also, I appreciate your use of language. 

 

[Chick Mercedes]

On 2/2/2023 at 10:26 PM, Tnetennba said:

Which is why I struggle to find optimism for a team that looks worse on paper than the 81 win debacle of last season.  Way too many things have to go right while hoping real hard they stay relatively healthy.  It’s a tough sell. 

Well, the pitching is funky for sure. If they were gonna pull a rabbit out of the hat, there would be a raw young arm(s) in the minors unproven, ready to pop up. There’s nobody like that down there. With normal attrition, the defense could suffer, and the catching is weird. The lineup is nothing special, and shallow. They aren’t high IQ little things/small ball players either. They won’t be a surprise contender because you cant even roll out plausible scenarios .

Edited February 7, 2023 by Chick Mercedes

[fathom]

One thing I really hope they improve upon is hitting the cut off man or fielding the relay throw cleanly.  I’ve been watching game highlights from last year, and it’s truly amazing how many bad relays the team had. It was rare to see a catcher or SS/2B field a throw cleanly.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Their April schedule is a freakin meat grinder.  @ Pitt is the only easy series they have all month. I have them 5 games under on May 1 and I was being nice. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

12 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Their April schedule is a freakin meat grinder.  @ Pitt is the only easy series they have all month. I have them 5 games under on May 1 and I was being nice. 

5 under seems to be the extreme case. But sure, possible I guess. I'm guess you have us losing every series except Pirates?

[ChiSoxTrojan]

58 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Their April schedule is a freakin meat grinder.  @ Pitt is the only easy series they have all month. I have them 5 games under on May 1 and I was being nice. 

On the flip side, April is likely the healthiest the team is all season, and when healthy this is a good lineup. Yes, I know the past two Aprils they haven't been at full health, maybe this is the year they escape Spring Training without a major injury.