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The White Sox over/under for 2023 wins is 83.5


Chick Mercedes

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9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

“The hot takes on ‘the money will be spent’ issue are perhaps among the poorest of White Sox Twitter, in my opinion, my biased opinion,” Hahn said, “I’ve seen that criticism mentioned a few different places, and it’s actually one of the very few that irritates me. Don’t get me wrong: criticism is part of this and to be expected. I just believe they should actually be grounded in fact, which ‘the money hasn’t been spent’ really just isn’t. The fact is that since the time that I made that comment, we’ve made a number of high-dollar commitments.

“That includes guys at or towards the top of the free-agent market like Hendriks, Yas, and (Dallas) Keuchel, as well as long-term commitments to a number of our own core players like Yoán, Eloy, Luis Robert and (Aaron) Bummer. Basically, in terms of either annual salary or total guaranteed dollars, we have significantly surpassed both of those thresholds when talking about ‘the money.’ Plus, no one has said we’re done in terms of potentially adding to this group should the right opportunity arise. And, all this is despite the fact that since the time I made that comment, a global pandemic has wreaked havoc on the revenues of just about every business sector of the economy worldwide. Like I said, criticisms not based in reality bug me.”

 

https://soxmachine.com/2021/02/white-sox-twitter-rick-hahn-money-will-be-spent/

 

A certain team from one of the 2-3 smallest MLB media markets has already given out SEVEN contracts for $100+ million in the last decade, and yet another bigger one to Will Myers ($85 million) than the Sox deals to Grandal and Abreu.

A proposed new deal for Machado will be #8, totaling four for over $280 million and that’s not even counting Juan Soto’s $23 million arb deal for 2023. 
 

A team that encountered their biggest offseason problem in accommodating 50,000+ fans for their FanFest and not having enough autographs to go around even with nearly every member of the roster showing up.

So he’s bragging he spent the money and the team is 81-81. How low can the bar go?

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8 hours ago, fathom said:

Got a sweet comment about the Padres though 

Well, they've spent $1.4 billion on just 8 contracts since Myers/Hosmer and will likely eclipse the total franchise value of the White Sox at $1.7-$1.75 billion when/if Machado or Soto sign new extensions.

I would venture to guess Hahn hasn't spent 1/3rd that amount during his entire tenure.

And yes, it could still backfire spectacularly...the Dodgers have that much payroll space opening next year and one of the deepest farm systems in the game.

Simply can't believe we are a week or two away from ST and there was more palpable excitement about the 1985-89 teams.

$30 parking and increased ticket prices for this mediocre product? 

Get outta here.

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33 minutes ago, fathom said:

Preseason projections just hate the Sox.  It’s crazy how bad this roster is now compared to what they were at the 2021 deadline.

Madrigal/Kimbrel/Pollock, Moncada and Grandal are the obvious ones.

Crochet I guess.  Abreu gone.

Losing Rodon for nothing.

Hendriks and Clevinger money frozen.

 

Not sure exactly how Benintendi offsets all of that...

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41 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Madrigal/Kimbrel/Pollock, Moncada and Grandal are the obvious ones.

Crochet I guess.  Abreu gone.

Losing Rodon for nothing.

Hendriks and Clevinger money frozen.

 

Not sure exactly how Benintendi offsets all of that...

It's also the question marks that have popped up for other players, like Eloy and Robert (health), Giolito, even bullpen guys like Bummer.

Really, how many players on the roster are you confident in that you know you're going to get positive contributions from them? Benintendi, TA, Cease, maybe Lynn? A few bullpen arms like Lopez/Graveman/Lambert should be fine.

There's a lot of potential, but there are also question marks up and down the roster, and no depth anywhere (except 1B) if anyone fails or gets hurt.

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6 minutes ago, ChiSoxTrojan said:

It's also the question marks that have popped up for other players, like Eloy and Robert (health), Giolito, even bullpen guys like Bummer.

Really, how many players on the roster are you confident in that you know you're going to get positive contributions from them? Benintendi, TA, Cease, maybe Lynn? A few bullpen arms like Lopez/Graveman/Lambert should be fine.

There's a lot of potential, but there are also question marks up and down the roster, and no depth anywhere (except 1B) if anyone fails or gets hurt.

Even Benintendi (see Pollock), look at his FG numbers the last three seasons prior to 2022.

He has a lot to prove with that new contract, which is now somehow the biggest in team history.

 

Lynn, always comes down to health/weight/conditioning.

Lambert and Lopez, hard to expect both to out or over perform like last season.

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19 minutes ago, ChiSoxTrojan said:

It's also the question marks that have popped up for other players, like Eloy and Robert (health), Giolito, even bullpen guys like Bummer.

Really, how many players on the roster are you confident in that you know you're going to get positive contributions from them? Benintendi, TA, Cease, maybe Lynn? A few bullpen arms like Lopez/Graveman/Lambert should be fine.

There's a lot of potential, but there are also question marks up and down the roster, and no depth anywhere (except 1B) if anyone fails or gets hurt.

But we have a seat at the ALC table.

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30 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Even Benintendi (see Pollock), look at his FG numbers the last three seasons prior to 2022.

He has a lot to prove with that new contract, which is now somehow the biggest in team history.

 

Lynn, always comes down to health/weight/conditioning.

Lambert and Lopez, hard to expect both to out or over perform like last season.

I was trying to be a bit generous. There's a range of outcomes for every player, but the guys I mentioned are safer bets IMO. The rest of the roster though is filled with extremely high-variance players. How many of them not meeting expectations (whether due to health or performance) would it take to derail the season? It's not a big number, considering the lack of depth across the board. I imagine if we were to simulate the season a million times (or whatever the projection systems do), a big proportion of those simulations would have enough underperformers to result in a .500 or lower record.

To be fair, one thing that I don't think the projection systems can accurately capture is the effect of the new coaching staff. That's basically all we have to hang our hopes on as Sox fans - that the new coaching staff will be able to push some magic buttons to get the whole team playing well and staying healthy.

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On 2/11/2023 at 6:03 PM, Dick Allen said:

So he’s bragging he spent the money and the team is 81-81. How low can the bar go?

Ya, i was going to say that was from last off-season. And technically he's not wrong ... but as mr. hahn lawyer speak should know ... don't say stupid s%*# if you can't back it up. The money will be spent and was spent ... he just failed to say that buying out arb years for our own players was going to count as money spent ... 

It's some bahama FTX accounting to say money that was going to be paid no matter what to Eloy and Robert, Moncada, etc. should count in his theoretical world. You telling me a team would decline Robert option at $5mm? It's just silly. Not to mention, for every Anderson that worked out there's a Moncada where we'll pay like $24mm for zero return. It's a wash in the end. 

But again, the sox can't be honest, they spin doctor s%*# and try to blame fans or gaslight them how we interpreted that wrong. 

I went from a Hahn fan to I think Hahn is a scumbag.. shoot me straight or just shut up and be thankful you got in Jerry's circle of trust. 

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50 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

PECOTA had the Sox winning like 92 games last year (more than the Astros), and Cleveland like 76 if I recall. 

Yes, the Sox underachieved last year and Cleveland overachieved, based on an objective assessment of their rosters last offseason. That doesn't give me much hope that the Sox will overachieve this year.

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Just now, ChiSoxTrojan said:

Yes, the Sox underachieved last year and Cleveland overachieved, based on an objective assessment of their rosters last offseason. That doesn't give me much hope that the Sox will overachieve this year.

There's a pattern to this. The White Sox overachieved relative to PECOTA in 2020 and 2021 - when they had a very young team with a lot of guys called up recently. Cleveland overachieved in 2022 - when they had the youngest team in the league and played 16 rookies. Young teams where guys don't have long records but who contribute a lot are teams that over perform in many of these projection systems. 

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13 hours ago, ChiSoxTrojan said:

It's also the question marks that have popped up for other players, like Eloy and Robert (health), Giolito, even bullpen guys like Bummer.

Really, how many players on the roster are you confident in that you know you're going to get positive contributions from them? Benintendi, TA, Cease, maybe Lynn? A few bullpen arms like Lopez/Graveman/Lambert should be fine.

There's a lot of potential, but there are also question marks up and down the roster, and no depth anywhere (except 1B) if anyone fails or gets hurt.


Also I remember LaMarr Hoyt and Jack McDowell regressing after their Cy Young years, Loaiza falling apart after his All Star season.  I’m not sold that there will be no regression from Cease.

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