2023-24 NFL Season Thread

[Quin]

19 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I don't want Harbaugh to be the GM and Coach. I don't think it works. It is where Belicheck got into all his issues, but its where Warren and Poles have to be clear and have right connections to connect the dots, persay.  I also don't think I'd cut Flus lose for anyone - I think if you do it, you are doing it because you can get an elite guy.  If you don't think you can - I don't think you make the move.  I don't think the coaching carousel is the same as the QB carousel.  Meaning - Bears have #1 pick - so their thought process on QB has to be different than if they were sitting with the 20th pick in the draft and had Fields. 

I do think if I were the Bears - I'm all in on drafting Caleb - as long as his work ethic and attitude in the lockeroom check out. If there are red flags there, than I don't care how talented he is, I'm not taking him. At QB, you can have no question marks when it comes to leadership and work ethic, none.   

People say oh he is just like Fields but smaller. No - Caleb moves the pocket like the best of them and his eyes are always downfield. He does sometimes hold the ball too long, but its a different mentality.  Caleb has tons of film of him throwing guys open - his issue is he is always big game hunting, but even than, his attempt to INT ratio is stellar, especially given limitations within his line and the fact that everyone in the world knew the Trojan had to score 40-50 per week to win.  The film on Caleb is great - but you do have to harness him and his fumbles are an issue, but I suspect good NFL coaching and continued work can help him there (teaching better ball security is much different than teaching someone who is slow to process and read defenses to somehow get faster).  

I liken it to - some people are elite at math and some people can work really hard and get to a certain point, but no matter what can't get to the more complex stuff.  They just aren't wired that way.  Just like some people can look at a few things and come up with a masterpiece design and others no matter how hard they try can't.  

How dare you call me out like this Jason

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I thought you meant for the next few years not just isolated to next year. 

I agree that a rookie QB may keep them from the playoffs but I don't think it's a given with the progress they've made with the roster. 

No, specifically 2024. If Eberflus is retained, this is a potential problem - you draft a #1 QB, that QB struggles a tiny bit and has like 15 INTs or something totally reasonable for a first year QB, but that's enough to keep you at 7 wins, out of the playoffs, and maybe even slightly worse than this year. Do you fire Eberflus at that time for not making the playoffs in 2024? I think this is something you should be confident about at the time you make the QB and draft pick decision. If you retain Eberflus and draft the QB, you need to know that the team's record isn't the only thing you're evaluating him for in 2024 and be confident in how to move forward even if fans are angry at the end of the year if you miss the playoffs again.

By 2025, you absolutely expect your second year QB drafted #1 to be taking major steps forward and if that isn't happening then you will be making changes with the coaching staff. Not even a question at that point.

[Chisoxfn]

45 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I would very much expect the Bears to keep this up in the air through April, because of the game I played last night. It is entirely possible that some team in this draft could decide to do something stupid and give up a Herschel Walker package (8 draft picks, 3 firsts/3 seconds, a couple players) for Williams. The Browns, for example, gave up 3 first round picks for DeShaun Watson while he was suspended and then signed him to a fully guaranteed deal. In a league where a team will do that for Watson, what might they do for a QB with a rookie contract?

While it isn't guaranteed that a team will do this, there is no reason to commit to what they're doing this year until they have everyone's "last ditch, post-free-agency" trade offers available.

Or does just having that leverage and price out there, drive a team to say, you know what - lets get more aggressive and offer a higher price on Fields.  I know the report out there that said he's worth a 3rd.  I tend to believe that given who that info was sourced from - those teams didn't have a lot of incentive to say they would give up a 1st.  I would suspect teams commenting may have been teams in position to get Fields....may they want to leak a lower price tag out there for certain reasons.  

Could a team that doesn't have a chance at a QB and who liked Fields a ton, but isn't sitting in the top 10, decide they want to to offer up more than the Bears expected for Fields to solidify their position. I go back to - as much as I say he isn't the guy, I can squint and see him getting there.  I just tend to think when we have the #1 pick - I don't have to squint as much when it comes to the new crop as I do Fields and the Bears can do it without giving up any capital. For another team - who is now looking at a Penix vs. Fields...do they look and say you know what, I think Justin is on the cusp and I'm going to design something around him because I know his work ethic and leadership skills are strong - and we are going to go get him.  

I suspect Balta you are right - Bears are going to get some insane offers for the #1 pick, I also think the market for Fields will eventually be better than the "3rd round pick" that random sources quoted.  The price for starting QB's is not cheap. Wentz was worth more than that 2 times...Sam D'Arnold was so much worse than Fields and get more than that.  Josh Rosen was traded for a 2nd rounder and a future 5th.  It only takes one team to get enamored and eventually pay the price.  

Could a team offer a 1st rounder (or a future 1st) for Justin?  Or maybe it turns into 2 2nd rounders.  Raiders are sitting at 13 - would they get desperate and offer up the 13th pick for Justin?  Kiper suggested on TV the Falcons give up #8 for Justin (which is crazy talk) - but Kiper doesn't just throw crap like that out there.  Would they trade one of their best players for Fields (Crosby /Davante)?  My gut says no - but in the NFL - when you get closer to draft, QB's value(s) shrink early in the off-season and than climb when you get closer to draft day.  

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

No, specifically 2024. If Eberflus is retained, this is a potential problem - you draft a #1 QB, that QB struggles a tiny bit and has like 15 INTs or something totally reasonable for a first year QB, but that's enough to keep you at 7 wins, out of the playoffs, and maybe even slightly worse than this year. Do you fire Eberflus at that time for not making the playoffs in 2024? I think this is something you should be confident about at the time you make the QB and draft pick decision. If you retain Eberflus and draft the QB, you need to know that the team's record isn't the only thing you're evaluating him for in 2024 and be confident in how to move forward even if fans are angry at the end of the year if you miss the playoffs again.

By 2025, you absolutely expect your second year QB drafted #1 to be taking major steps forward and if that isn't happening then you will be making changes with the coaching staff. Not even a question at that point.

I agree, I don't tie the decision to fire Eberflus only to the performance of the QB. Just like I don't hold 2022 against him as the GM pretty much traded away any impact player on defense and they hadn't addressed the OL

If he is currently retained it's because of how he handles the team and runs the team. This won't change if the primary issue is the QB struggling. 

If they retain him, he needs to be here for at least the next 3 years. 

[Tony]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

No, specifically 2024. If Eberflus is retained, this is a potential problem - you draft a #1 QB, that QB struggles a tiny bit and has like 15 INTs or something totally reasonable for a first year QB, but that's enough to keep you at 7 wins, out of the playoffs, and maybe even slightly worse than this year. Do you fire Eberflus at that time for not making the playoffs in 2024? I think this is something you should be confident about at the time you make the QB and draft pick decision. If you retain Eberflus and draft the QB, you need to know that the team's record isn't the only thing you're evaluating him for in 2024 and be confident in how to move forward even if fans are angry at the end of the year if you miss the playoffs again.

By 2025, you absolutely expect your second year QB drafted #1 to be taking major steps forward and if that isn't happening then you will be making changes with the coaching staff. Not even a question at that point.

This is correct, because as we all know, this is the cycle the Bears continue to find themselves in, by their own doing. Lame duck coach inherits new QB, it doesn't work, coach is fired, new staff brought in, 2nd year QB is now on his second system in as many years, usually there are some bumps with the first year head coach, so now 2 years are potentially wasted, and now the QB you got to "Reset" the clock is on Year 3 and his development has been stunted. 

There were talks on the radio yesterday that Flus may have actually gotten a contract extension that we don't know about or wasn't announced publicly. If you keep Flus, which I don't want, you have to give him at least 2 more seasons. 

[Tony]

2 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Or does just having that leverage and price out there, drive a team to say, you know what - lets get more aggressive and offer a higher price on Fields.  I know the report out there that said he's worth a 3rd.  I tend to believe that given who that info was sourced from - those teams didn't have a lot of incentive to say they would give up a 1st.  I would suspect teams commenting may have been teams in position to get Fields....may they want to leak a lower price tag out there for certain reasons.  

Could a team that doesn't have a chance at a QB and who liked Fields a ton, but isn't sitting in the top 10, decide they want to to offer up more than the Bears expected for Fields to solidify their position. I go back to - as much as I say he isn't the guy, I can squint and see him getting there.  I just tend to think when we have the #1 pick - I don't have to squint as much when it comes to the new crop as I do Fields and the Bears can do it without giving up any capital. For another team - who is now looking at a Penix vs. Fields...do they look and say you know what, I think Justin is on the cusp and I'm going to design something around him because I know his work ethic and leadership skills are strong - and we are going to go get him.  

I suspect Balta you are right - Bears are going to get some insane offers for the #1 pick, I also think the market for Fields will eventually be better than the "3rd round pick" that random sources quoted.  The price for starting QB's is not cheap. Wentz was worth more than that 2 times...Sam D'Arnold was so much worse than Fields and get more than that.  Josh Rosen was traded for a 2nd rounder and a future 5th.  It only takes one team to get enamored and eventually pay the price.  

Could a team offer a 1st rounder (or a future 1st) for Justin?  Or maybe it turns into 2 2nd rounders.  Raiders are sitting at 13 - would they get desperate and offer up the 13th pick for Justin?  Kiper suggested on TV the Falcons give up #8 for Justin (which is crazy talk) - but Kiper doesn't just throw crap like that out there.  Would they trade one of their best players for Fields (Crosby /Davante)?  My gut says no - but in the NFL - when you get closer to draft, QB's value(s) shrink early in the off-season and than climb when you get closer to draft day.  

Yeah, I don't see anyway this happens. I actually think Fields the player can have a great amount of value for a team and could really help Atlanta, but because he's going into Year 4 of his rookie deal, his worth takes a fairly large hit

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Chisoxfn said:

Or does just having that leverage and price out there, drive a team to say, you know what - lets get more aggressive and offer a higher price on Fields.  I know the report out there that said he's worth a 3rd.  I tend to believe that given who that info was sourced from - those teams didn't have a lot of incentive to say they would give up a 1st.  I would suspect teams commenting may have been teams in position to get Fields....may they want to leak a lower price tag out there for certain reasons.  

Could a team that doesn't have a chance at a QB and who liked Fields a ton, but isn't sitting in the top 10, decide they want to to offer up more than the Bears expected for Fields to solidify their position. I go back to - as much as I say he isn't the guy, I can squint and see him getting there.  I just tend to think when we have the #1 pick - I don't have to squint as much when it comes to the new crop as I do Fields and the Bears can do it without giving up any capital. For another team - who is now looking at a Penix vs. Fields...do they look and say you know what, I think Justin is on the cusp and I'm going to design something around him because I know his work ethic and leadership skills are strong - and we are going to go get him.  

I suspect Balta you are right - Bears are going to get some insane offers for the #1 pick, I also think the market for Fields will eventually be better than the "3rd round pick" that random sources quoted.  The price for starting QB's is not cheap. Wentz was worth more than that 2 times...Sam D'Arnold was so much worse than Fields and get more than that.  Josh Rosen was traded for a 2nd rounder and a future 5th.  It only takes one team to get enamored and eventually pay the price.  

Could a team offer a 1st rounder (or a future 1st) for Justin?  Or maybe it turns into 2 2nd rounders.  Raiders are sitting at 13 - would they get desperate and offer up the 13th pick for Justin?  Kiper suggested on TV the Falcons give up #8 for Justin (which is crazy talk) - but Kiper doesn't just throw crap like that out there.  Would they trade one of their best players for Fields (Crosby /Davante)?  My gut says no - but in the NFL - when you get closer to draft, QB's value(s) shrink early in the off-season and than climb when you get closer to draft day.  

With the QB market as it looks to me I absolutely think the Bears should be able to get a 2nd rounder for Fields (possibly a future 2nd?) and I do think Justin Fields is likely starting on opening day next year barring injury.

A first seems like a stretch to me given his contract timing, but maybe a 2nd and a player could be a possible thing? Maybe a conditional first in '25?

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Tony said:

Yeah, I don't see anyway this happens. I actually think Fields the player can have a great amount of value for a team and could really help Atlanta, but because he's going into Year 4 of his rookie deal, his worth takes a fairly large hit

The other team that should absolutely be in on Fields is Pittsburgh. 

[Balta1701]

Mike Vrabel out in Tennessee. I'm generally surprised by that one.

[ptatc]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Mike Vrabel out in Tennessee. I'm generally surprised by that one.

Agreed. I wonder if he knows something about NE and wanted out. 

[ptatc]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

With the QB market as it looks to me I absolutely think the Bears should be able to get a 2nd rounder for Fields (possibly a future 2nd?) and I do think Justin Fields is likely starting on opening day next year barring injury.

A first seems like a stretch to me given his contract timing, but maybe a 2nd and a player could be a possible thing? Maybe a conditional first in '25?

I think it's more of a second due to the upcoming contract they'll need to sign him to if they keep him. 

[LittleHurtCG]

How come nobody can accuratley predict if Caleb Williams is gonna be a franchise QB or not? Is it that hard to evaulate college quarterbacks now? It seems like in recent history everyone knew that dudes like Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Joe Burrow were going to be sure fire stud quarterbacks. 

Also, after watching last night college football playoff I'm staying far far away from Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy if I'm an NFL GM. Penix can carve up defenses when he has 7 or 8 seconds to stand in the pocket but folded like a cheap suit once he faced a big boy defense. McCarthy doesn't have the arm strength or accuraccy to be anything over than a career backup. 

[WhiteSox2023]

11 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Agreed. I wonder if he knows something about NE and wanted out. 

The McDaniels/Vrabel to NE rumors are already circulating.

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, LittleHurtCG said:

How come nobody can accuratley predict if Caleb Williams is gonna be a franchise QB or not? Is it that hard to evaulate college quarterbacks now? It seems like in recent history everyone knew that dudes like Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Joe Burrow were going to be sure fire stud quarterbacks. 

Also, after watching last night college football playoff I'm staying far far away from Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy if I'm an NFL GM. Penix can carve up defenses when he has 7 or 8 seconds to stand in the pocket but folded like a cheap suit once he faced a big boy defense. McCarthy doesn't have the arm strength or accuraccy to be anything over than a career backup. 

It has always been tough to evaluate college QBs. There are plenty of number one picks who have busted. 

[Kyyle23]

21 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Mike Vrabel out in Tennessee. I'm generally surprised by that one.

Was surprised myself, but then saw a little context from the owner and it makes a bit more sense.  Still, he should have gotten a QB after they knew Tannhehil wasn’t gonna be the guy 

[chw42]

5 minutes ago, LittleHurtCG said:

How come nobody can accuratley predict if Caleb Williams is gonna be a franchise QB or not? Is it that hard to evaulate college quarterbacks now? It seems like in recent history everyone knew that dudes like Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Joe Burrow were going to be sure fire stud quarterbacks. 

Also, after watching last night college football playoff I'm staying far far away from Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy if I'm an NFL GM. Penix can carve up defenses when he has 7 or 8 seconds to stand in the pocket but folded like a cheap suit once he faced a big boy defense. McCarthy doesn't have the arm strength or accuraccy to be anything over than a career backup. 

Yes because college is honestly a different game than the NFL sometimes. The talent gap between teams is at times gigantic. Fields looked great in college because he had a great team around him so he had a ton of time to throw and receivers who could get separation. When you take that away from him in the NFL, he doesn't look so good. 

You can even say the same thing about Penix last night. He had time to throw against Texas but didn't against Michigan and the difference was night and day. He's way more likely to see the scenarios he saw last night in the NFL compared to what happened in the CFP semi-final. 

Williams has never had a great supporting cast at USC, especially this year. There's maybe one other top 100 draft pick talent on that USC offense. And their defense was non-existent so there was a ton of pressure on him to carry that USC team. Some people also seem to think that Lincoln Riley's offense is way too simplistic, but there's 3 recent examples of Riley QBs doing pretty well for themselves in the NFL. Would it be disappointing if Williams is just a slightly taller Kyler Murray or another Baker Mayfield? Probably, yeah. But I think the idea that he's gonna bust and be terrible is pretty unrealistic. 

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Was surprised myself, but then saw a little context from the owner and it makes a bit more sense.  Still, he should have gotten a QB after they knew Tannhehil wasn’t gonna be the guy 

 

If that's why they made the move - this is exactly what I was saying the Bears can't do with Eberflus next year. You can't draft a QB and then fire the coach if he still can't beat the Packers next year.

[ptatc]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

 

If that's why they made the move - this is exactly what I was saying the Bears can't do with Eberflus next year. You can't draft a QB and then fire the coach if he still can't beat the Packers next year.

Correct. I would say the same with the OC. Whoever it is next year they need to keep consistency for the QB for a couple of years. 

[Tony]

26 minutes ago, LittleHurtCG said:

How come nobody can accuratley predict if Caleb Williams is gonna be a franchise QB or not? Is it that hard to evaulate college quarterbacks now? It seems like in recent history everyone knew that dudes like Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Joe Burrow were going to be sure fire stud quarterbacks. 

Also, after watching last night college football playoff I'm staying far far away from Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy if I'm an NFL GM. Penix can carve up defenses when he has 7 or 8 seconds to stand in the pocket but folded like a cheap suit once he faced a big boy defense. McCarthy doesn't have the arm strength or accuraccy to be anything over than a career backup. 

As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the 49ers are the class of the NFL right now, and missed BADLY on Trey Lance. Seems almost impossible to not be able to succeed in that system…but even great teams get it wrong 

[Harry Chappas]

16 hours ago, Tony said:

Two separate issues, but I don’t believe that tweet for a second. Anyone with working eyes can tell you Love had much more of a pocket snd time than Fields yesterday. 

The point to that, and I am catching up on this thread is not the OL and time to throw, to me it is the time it takes to make a decision.  Love had better protection but he was also throwing it much sooner.

Fields holds on to the ball way toooooo long and still can't find a receiver.

If the answer is getting Fields more weapons, then he better take a large haircut on an extension.

[MexSoxFan#1]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

It has always been tough to evaluate college QBs. There are plenty of number one picks who have busted. 

9 out of the last 15 QBs picked overall #1 were busts. Small sample size I know but something to consider.

Edited January 9 by MexSoxFan#1

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, MexSoxFan#1 said:

9 out of the last 15 QBs picked overall #1 were busts. Small sample size I know but something to consider.

Who are you counting as busts? I went back to Manning's draft and found 3 clear busts: Tim Couch, David Carr, Jamarcus Russell (and frankly I always believed that Carr was a bust because of his situation). There's several iffy guys: Sam Bradford, Jamies Winston, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, but many of them have had long careers and are at least decent QBs. I have to include either Alex Smith, Jared Goff, or Bryce Young to get to 9. 

[bmags]

I think people forget how skittish people get on these QBs regardless. Joe Burrow was a great, GREAT prospect. He also was older and a 1-year wonder. That raised flags! He had amazing talent. That raised flags! Nobody could deny the production and how it seemed he handled.

There was SO much hype for Andrew Luck for his last year, and some felt it wasn't as good as it should have been for such a hyped prospect.

Peyton Manning had a bad last game, they got blown out. Ryan Leaf may be better than him! People talked like this!

Then once they succeed they kinda retrofit that they were good QB prospects. Scuttlebutt on Herbert was he underachieved and was a boring QB. 

As Tony mentioned, people just kinda yadda yadda lance because he's extremely inconvenient. He was allowed to sit. He was in the best offense ever. ANd he failed! 

It can definitely happen. But the problem with Caleb Williams is he is not 6'4. Otherwise he is a great prospect. Drake Maye is 6'4, but also throws like with bad accuracy. Jayden Daniels is a twig and a late bloomer.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Kyyle23 said:

Was surprised myself, but then saw a little context from the owner and it makes a bit more sense.  Still, he should have gotten a QB after they knew Tannhehil wasn’t gonna be the guy 

They took swings at Willis and Levis. And there was a lot of rumors they were trying to trade up to 1 last year (glad they didn't!)

[Chisoxfn]

2 hours ago, ptatc said:

I agree, I don't tie the decision to fire Eberflus only to the performance of the QB. Just like I don't hold 2022 against him as the GM pretty much traded away any impact player on defense and they hadn't addressed the OL

If he is currently retained it's because of how he handles the team and runs the team. This won't change if the primary issue is the QB struggling. 

If they retain him, he needs to be here for at least the next 3 years. 

This is the truth - if they are retaining him, they have to in there mind be of the opinion, this is our guy for the next 3+ years. They can't be sitting there and not be fully convicted that he is the guy.  I should state - the above has to hold true if you draft a QB. If you stay with Fields, than it might be more acceptable that there is some uncertainty...