2023-24 NFL Season Thread

[scs787]

Here's an interesting thought...Let's say the Fields turns it around and Carolina gets us the #1 pick. I think, I still take Williams and trade Fields. Having a QB on a rookie contract is still a huge benefit in the NFL.

[Flash Tizzle]

25 minutes ago, scs787 said:

Here's an interesting thought...Let's say the Fields turns it around and Carolina gets us the #1 pick. I think, I still take Williams and trade Fields. Having a QB on a rookie contract is still a huge benefit in the NFL.

A lot depends on how much he turns it around, and for how many games he shows it. I didn’t even know until yesterday that Fields misread the defense when he threw the late INT intended for Kmet. Kmet ran a route on man coverage, Fields thought the Broncos were in zone. That’s….really bad. And it has been one of many issues. 

I don’t see how it improves, but for your hypothetical, even if he finishes out strong I’d still draft another QB. It’s just time to move on

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, scs787 said:

Here's an interesting thought...Let's say the Fields turns it around and Carolina gets us the #1 pick. I think, I still take Williams and trade Fields. Having a QB on a rookie contract is still a huge benefit in the NFL.

There is almost zero scenario where I don't take Williams if the Bears have the #1 pick (whether there pick or the Panthers pick).  He may bust - but he is a one in 5 year type of #1 overall pick.  So unless Williams gets seriously hurt or forgets how to play football - he is the pick. On the other end - it would take Fields putting up stats like he did last week REGULARLY for me to maybe start to think twice.  

[Chisoxfn]

Poles is still being evaluated. Trading the #1 pick is probably one of the easier things he could decide as the GM.  It was the right move in my mind - but getting value for that isn't the hard part - its how you actually use those assets going forward and do you actually get value out of them.  Will he draft well, can he and his pro scouts help him find the right free agents, etc.  

The assessment on Poles is less W-L (don't get me wrong, those count) - but right now it is more about the individual W-L's.  Did he make the right draft picks, are they progressing and developing, how did he do on the free agent front, etc.  Those things are going on. Right now - the jury is clearly still out and if I said anything, my lean is a negative lean.

His free agents haven't hit (not saying Edmunds or Edwards are busts - but they haven't HIT).  Davis is a pass right now (that is an upgrade from where I had him throughout training camp, but he deserves that pass given what was going on).  Nadakoue isn't very good - but I think everyone knew that and its a 1 year deal, so I don't lose much sleep on that.  Walker has done absolutely nothing - so that seems like a miss (I don't see what he has done for 3yr 21M that Tevis Gibson couldn't have done). That may seem harsh - but Walker has literally done ZILCH.  Now all of the above grades can clearly change - but free agent wise - NOT a good start. 

His trades - the Roquan Smith move was fine on paper.  Respending that money on another off-ball linebacker, even though Edmunds is good, is probably a questionable allocation of resources (at best).  Trading for Claypool - clearly a mistake, but I respect fact that they seem to be admitting that mistake quickly.  Trading Mack was 100% the right thing to do - even did hurt the team in short run.  

On the draft - Wright, Braxton Jones, and Carter show promise.  The two young DT's have really done nothing during the game's at this point (it's early though - so still a pass - but you need to see some flash out of them now that we are through 1st quarter of the season - especially post the long break coming after Washington game.  In the secondary Brisker had a good rookie year, but has struggled in year 2.  Stevenson and Smith have had some good and some bad - but got to hit.  Gordon has been the same.  But thus far - no one has emerged as a building block - Wright looks like the closest thing to that.  Now its still early - especially for this most recent years draft - but that isn't exactly a good mark.  Scott is TBD - but could emerge - he definitely has speed.  Velus Jones also has speed, but clearly can't do much else.  Hopefully Scott has more in him than Jones.  

If we finish the season and the above list looks the same - no one has really flashed and you haven't identified clear difference makers 2 years into this (hard assessment because there was so little to work with in terms of capital in year 1) - but that WOULD not be a very good start for Poles and in my mind would warrant Warren and McCaskey to have to make some hard choices.  

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

There are still 13 games left - I FULLY expect we should see growth in this year(s) draft class and there is LOTs of time for Brisker, Gordon, & Jones to get back to 100% and take strides forward you hope to see out of 2nd year players.  Carter may also get a chance to show us something - in which case, getting what they got with as "bare" of a cupboard as Poles had in year 1 (no high end draft picks to work with, etc) - and I am saying there is enough there to warrant a longer term commitment to Poles.  

[chw42]

Nice long tweet about how the Broncos adjusted after the first half against Fields.

TLDR: Fields struggled against zone coverage in the first 3 games. Broncos ran match/man the entire first half which is why Fields carved them up. Then they switched to more zone coverage and Fields stopped getting his chunk plays and had to check down more. 

[nitetrain8601]

I think Poles and everyone should always be under constant evaluation, that being:

 

• Do they have a plan?
• Are they executing on that plan successfully?
• Despite some misses (which will happen for everybody), are we any closer to completing the plan?

If the answer is yes, to me, you cannot fire the coach or player. 

Poles does have some misses, however.

A 2nd for Claypool was a headscratcher in terms of value they gave up. Claypool already had problems in Pittsburgh with Tomlin. Giving up a 32nd pick is really awful considering he couldn't finish with you. I get they needed to up their offer to keep him away from GB and they wanted to help Fields.

I'm not a huge fan of Tremaine Edmunds. To me, he's a replacement level player. I do like Yannick, but he's a mercenary for hire.

Front 7 are all questionable decisions. 

I won't knock him on Flus since he was already picked when he walked in the door, nor will I knock him for seeing what he had in Justin this year. He gave himself outs and he's managing the cap and assets ridiculously well IMO, even with the Claypool stuff.

[SoxAce]

Very telling.

[chw42]

5 hours ago, nitetrain8601 said:

I think Poles and everyone should always be under constant evaluation, that being:

 

• Do they have a plan?
• Are they executing on that plan successfully?
• Despite some misses (which will happen for everybody), are we any closer to completing the plan?

If the answer is yes, to me, you cannot fire the coach or player. 

Poles does have some misses, however.

A 2nd for Claypool was a headscratcher in terms of value they gave up. Claypool already had problems in Pittsburgh with Tomlin. Giving up a 32nd pick is really awful considering he couldn't finish with you. I get they needed to up their offer to keep him away from GB and they wanted to help Fields.

I'm not a huge fan of Tremaine Edmunds. To me, he's a replacement level player. I do like Yannick, but he's a mercenary for hire.

Front 7 are all questionable decisions. 

I won't knock him on Flus since he was already picked when he walked in the door, nor will I knock him for seeing what he had in Justin this year. He gave himself outs and he's managing the cap and assets ridiculously well IMO, even with the Claypool stuff.

Edmunds is a good linebacker but no linebacker will look good if the front 4 gets no pressure and doesn't do its job in the run game.

It's why I was confused why they went after the LBs in FA before the defensive linemen.

Edited October 3, 2023 by chw42

[Chisoxfn]

29 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

Very telling.

It is interesting cause his defenses ranked very well in 2018, 2019, and 2020 despite minimal pressure.  And they forced turnovers. If I recall there run defenses were phenomenal.  

[bmags]

2 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

Poles is still being evaluated. Trading the #1 pick is probably one of the easier things he could decide as the GM.  It was the right move in my mind - but getting value for that isn't the hard part - its how you actually use those assets going forward and do you actually get value out of them.  Will he draft well, can he and his pro scouts help him find the right free agents, etc.  

The assessment on Poles is less W-L (don't get me wrong, those count) - but right now it is more about the individual W-L's.  Did he make the right draft picks, are they progressing and developing, how did he do on the free agent front, etc.  Those things are going on. Right now - the jury is clearly still out and if I said anything, my lean is a negative lean.

His free agents haven't hit (not saying Edmunds or Edwards are busts - but they haven't HIT).  Davis is a pass right now (that is an upgrade from where I had him throughout training camp, but he deserves that pass given what was going on).  Nadakoue isn't very good - but I think everyone knew that and its a 1 year deal, so I don't lose much sleep on that.  Walker has done absolutely nothing - so that seems like a miss (I don't see what he has done for 3yr 21M that Tevis Gibson couldn't have done). That may seem harsh - but Walker has literally done ZILCH.  Now all of the above grades can clearly change - but free agent wise - NOT a good start. 

His trades - the Roquan Smith move was fine on paper.  Respending that money on another off-ball linebacker, even though Edmunds is good, is probably a questionable allocation of resources (at best).  Trading for Claypool - clearly a mistake, but I respect fact that they seem to be admitting that mistake quickly.  Trading Mack was 100% the right thing to do - even did hurt the team in short run.  

On the draft - Wright, Braxton Jones, and Carter show promise.  The two young DT's have really done nothing during the game's at this point (it's early though - so still a pass - but you need to see some flash out of them now that we are through 1st quarter of the season - especially post the long break coming after Washington game.  In the secondary Brisker had a good rookie year, but has struggled in year 2.  Stevenson and Smith have had some good and some bad - but got to hit.  Gordon has been the same.  But thus far - no one has emerged as a building block - Wright looks like the closest thing to that.  Now its still early - especially for this most recent years draft - but that isn't exactly a good mark.  Scott is TBD - but could emerge - he definitely has speed.  Velus Jones also has speed, but clearly can't do much else.  Hopefully Scott has more in him than Jones.  

If we finish the season and the above list looks the same - no one has really flashed and you haven't identified clear difference makers 2 years into this (hard assessment because there was so little to work with in terms of capital in year 1) - but that WOULD not be a very good start for Poles and in my mind would warrant Warren and McCaskey to have to make some hard choices.  

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

There are still 13 games left - I FULLY expect we should see growth in this year(s) draft class and there is LOTs of time for Brisker, Gordon, & Jones to get back to 100% and take strides forward you hope to see out of 2nd year players.  Carter may also get a chance to show us something - in which case, getting what they got with as "bare" of a cupboard as Poles had in year 1 (no high end draft picks to work with, etc) - and I am saying there is enough there to warrant a longer term commitment to Poles.  

 

18 hours ago, lostfan said:

I posted this in a twitter thread then a longer version on fb so I'll just copy/paste it here

As a general principle you can't (or shouldn't) fire a GM in the NFL, or any sport really, after the amount of time Ryan Poles has been employed by the Bears, because you're asking them to work on a multi-year time frame and it's not reasonable to judge them against that in such a short amount of time. With that being said, if you *were* eventually firing him, he's already checked most of the boxes. For example

-He traded Roquan Smith. In a vacuum, this is defensible, you don't really want to pay an off-ball LB that much money, he's someone who needs to play in a 2-gap system, a 2nd round pick is really good value. But what does Poles do after this? He cancels it out by giving the Steelers his own 2nd (that ends up higher) for Chase Claypool, who does f*** all, and then paying an off-ball LB almost as much as Roquan wanted, instead of...

-...investing in the defensive line and pass rush. Remember, when Poles took over, this wasn't barren, clearing it out to start over was a choice he made - to save a bunch of money he ended up not spending

-And why couldn't he use Roquan in the first place? Because he hired a mid ass defensive coordinator as head coach who runs an antiquated scheme that Roquan doesn't fit in when you have an inexperienced 2nd year QB you *immediately* neglect. And when I say "neglect" I mean literally didn't do a FUCKING thing for until the following offseason

-His head coach's chosen offensive coordinator and QB are a square peg and a round hole. This is obvious to everyone except him (and his head coach).

The only things I believe I can say in Eberflus's defense are that, yes, I understand this wasn't a one-year plan, and that his draft picks still have time to pan out, but Phil Emery was fired for less.

 

 

For me the end-all, be-all for Poles staying comes down to what Kevin Warren believes happened during the coach hiring process. I'd again go back to the bears final 3, and how none of their other finalists have HC gigs, despite them hiring early and it being a pretty successful coaching class.

For Poles, I'm getting some sashi brown vibes, and timing could hurt him. I think a lot of his team building activities have been defensible, but that can run into really poor timing.

- The FA class last year really was rough. But there were SOME "problem solver" players in Javon Hargrove, but his 'sashi' tendencies did not have him go hard after a guy at 30. As a whole, his lack of interest in bringing in actually productive veterans who are too old has led to so many holes even young guys look lost.

- From a high level, there were few real difference makers found in FA last year on defense. Hargrove was one. Walker isn't actually terrible on run defense, and Billings actually has been good. But there are huge problems when the bears choose Rasheem Green, Robinson, and Ngakouwe and they are performing this bad. Is that bad scouting or coaching? Is Rasheem green actually better than Gipson, who actually sacked someone? Looking at walker isn't even the only lens.

- What has killed Poles in the draft, imo, is that the fans had preferences that were in fact better choices. There is a huge sliding doors thing with PIckens, where he like...prevents you from trading for Claypool. Fans often circled Berhard Raimann in round 2, and he fell to round 3. Would that have allowed them to draft Jalen Carter next year? As a whole, the draft classes are too young to really know, but again, that was true of Sashi.

- By same token, fans screamed in FA for a center like Ethan Pocic...they say the can fix it in house...they were wrong. Money wasn't a problem there, they just were too conservative.

I guess my bullish case for Poles is that whomever takes over actually has a hell of a jumping off point. In the browns, John Dorsey got to take over with picks 1, 4. A more mature roster. A lot of cap space, and started bringing in vets so that it wasn't so chaotically young. Perhaps the browns would have been just as good had he stayed. Maybe they take Josh Allen instead of Baker.

The next FA class is much more likely to see some star players like Chris Jones and Christian Wilkins who cannot be tagged and/or have extremely stressed teams. (Sweat/Burns i'm gonna say is unlikely). Bryce Huff, Chase Young are very possible to arrive as well.

Connor Williams may arrive as a 26 year old dominant center. Perhaps you draft Fashanu, perhaps you get a guy later.

There are things here that could make big leaps with this historically good draft class, and better luck in what gets thru to FA. And maybe poles looks like he redeemd himself. Or maybe we are happy that a new GM is a bit more aggressive in actually fixing problems, which makes every unit look stronger.

I"m actually open to either. I think Poles has done some things to stay, but the hiring of Eberflus was so bad, and perhaps was influenced by his agent, that I'm ok with going elsewhere.

[Kyyle23]

George McCaskey might be firing a HC and GM again after a two year(maybe) run.  You didn’t think you would see a Trestman Emery comparison again around here and lmao here we are

[bmags]

7 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

George McCaskey might be firing a HC and GM again after a two year(maybe) run.  You didn’t think you would see a Trestman Emery comparison again around here and lmao here we are

Emery got 3 years though didn't he? (2012, fired lovie, 2013-14)

[Kyyle23]

18 minutes ago, bmags said:

Emery got 3 years though didn't he? (2012, fired lovie, 2013-14)

Ah you are correct, forgot about that staggered GM thing that made Lovie a dead man walking 

[Dick Allen]

48 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Ah you are correct, forgot about that staggered GM thing that made Lovie a dead man walking 

Lovie got canned after a 10-6 season. Any Bears coach goes 10-6 now might get a statue.

[lostfan]

3 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

George McCaskey might be firing a HC and GM again after a two year(maybe) run.  You didn’t think you would see a Trestman Emery comparison again around here and lmao here we are

Poles and Eberflus do seem out of sync in the same way that Emery and Trestman were. Emery had an solid idea about how to build a team on a macro level but it seemed like he was just kinda taking guys he liked in the draft (the "best player available" that draft nerds bring up ad nauseam every spring, I guess, but that no successful team actually does) apparently without consideration for an actual evaluation of that contract against how the coach actually wants to use him. Why, for example, would you take Tyrique Stevenson if Eberflus is just gonna have him playing zone with no pass rush? Doesn't make sense. I'm sure he had a reason but it's not a good reason.

[bmags]

53 minutes ago, lostfan said:

Poles and Eberflus do seem out of sync in the same way that Emery and Trestman were. Emery had an solid idea about how to build a team on a macro level but it seemed like he was just kinda taking guys he liked in the draft (the "best player available" that draft nerds bring up ad nauseam every spring, I guess, but that no successful team actually does) apparently without consideration for an actual evaluation of that contract against how the coach actually wants to use him. Why, for example, would you take Tyrique Stevenson if Eberflus is just gonna have him playing zone with no pass rush? Doesn't make sense. I'm sure he had a reason but it's not a good reason.

While that’s weird re: Stevenson, Eberflus has described wanting long fast athletes. He just doesn’t use them to their strengths.

[lostfan]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

While that’s weird re: Stevenson, Eberflus has described wanting long fast athletes. He just doesn’t use them to their strengths.

Yeah, and Poles drafts that (clearly heavily favors guys with a high RAS) and I blame Eberflus for this more. Emery would draft guys to play in a versatile defensive scheme and then Trestman just had them playing the most vanilla 4-3 schemes there were

[Dick Allen]

Peter King thinks if the Bears lose Thursday, Eberflus might be done. I think being the HC and DC gets him the whole season.

[bmags]

26 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Peter King thinks if the Bears lose Thursday, Eberflus might be done. I think being the HC and DC gets him the whole season.

I tend to agree…unless they pull a Saturday? 
 

 

[Tony]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Peter King thinks if the Bears lose Thursday, Eberflus might be done. I think being the HC and DC gets him the whole season.

Again, what's the better option in Week 5? If they are still trying to "learn" about players, how does learning a whole new system work? And they can't fire Eberflus and keep Getsy (I mean they can, and it's the Bears) but that would be so dumb 

[Balta1701]

 

[Chisoxfn]

The Bucs OC Canales is interesting. Very green - but spent 10 years with Pete Caroll with Seattle and was with him at USC. Was Geno Smiths QB coach last year and now we are seeing good things with Baker. Could also be a collosal disaster but if he learned a lot from Pete in terms of how to run the show and has good offensive mind it at least intrigues me. 

[Chisoxfn]

So I guess Pete King said he wouldn’t be surprised if Bears fired Flus following Thursdays game. 
 

So let’s just say this is the case - has a team ever hired an interim coach who wasn’t on the current coaching staff? Would McCaskey turn to Lovie and basically say - hey can you and Marinelli come in and do us a solid and bring leadership and steer us through this? It’s only thing I can think of - and probably totally absurd. In college it happens sometimes, during bowls, but Lovie and Marinelli know the defense and scheme and Lovie, despite his flaws, absolutely knows how to control a lockeroom. 

[SoxAce]

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/dont-look-now-but-darnell-wright-quietly-ranks-among-nfls-best/

It's still very early but Poles so far has been the anti Ryan Pace. Hit on his 1st round pick and whiffed on the later picks (Pace was the opposite). But I might rather have Poles hit on the 1st rounders and miss on the rest of the draft class. Those are the blue chippers.

[Kyyle23]

6 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

So I guess Pete King said he wouldn’t be surprised if Bears fired Flus following Thursdays game. 
 

So let’s just say this is the case - has a team ever hired an interim coach who wasn’t on the current coaching staff? Would McCaskey turn to Lovie and basically say - hey can you and Marinelli come in and do us a solid and bring leadership and steer us through this? It’s only thing I can think of - and probably totally absurd. In college it happens sometimes, during bowls, but Lovie and Marinelli know the defense and scheme and Lovie, despite his flaws, absolutely knows how to control a lockeroom. 

While we as fans would view this as a great and needed thing to do, I have a hard time believing Lovie would take a job (from a former employer that canned him after 10-6) where he is only there to right the ship and then bye.