2023-24 NFL Season Thread

[almagest]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:48 PM, Sports Guy said:

You would get a huge haul if you traded down…no doubt about it.

That said, I think you take Williams, trade Fields and take the best WR left with the other pick.

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You'd have to trade down pretty far is my point. It's not coming from trading down 3 spots. You'd likely be in the 10-15 range.

[Sports Guy]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:49 PM, almagest said:

You'd have to trade down pretty far is my point. It's not coming from trading down 3 spots. You'd likely be in the 10-15 range.

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If you trade down 3 spots, you will still get 2 firsts and other picks/assets.

 

[almagest]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:51 PM, Sports Guy said:

If you trade down 3 spots, you will still get 2 firsts and other picks/assets.

 

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I really, really doubt it. Cardinals are #4 right now and they might not take a QB. Also, teams will know the Bears aren't drafting a  QB at #1, so #2 and #3 become where you need to be. If any teams not taking QBs end up there you'll see trades to those slots.

[Tony]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:46 PM, almagest said:

A good QB is so important and getting the best guy (Williams or Maye) in a pretty good draft year for QBs is a no-brainer to me. Fields has barely improved as a passer this year and that's with a top 10 WR, a good TE and a better o-line. He's consistently in the 20s for every major QB stat and that's not good enough, especially given how much time he misses due to injuries and that the Bears need to pick up his 5th year option before next season starts.

I also think people are dreaming of a big trade down haul that just isn't happening. These trades just don't happen very often, for one, and in a QB class last year without many options beyond the top 2 you got one first round pick and DJ Moore (likely valued as a 2nd with maybe a later round pick attached) by trading down nine spots. I think the hauls most people expect would come from trading to 10+, where I don't think the Bears want to be - the best QBs and WRs will be well off the board by then, and you just don't get the same level of impact from the guys in that part of the draft.

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I don't really think any of this is true. The Bears are in a very unique position as a possible 8 win team and owning the No.1 overall pick. In most cases, the team holding the No. 1 pick needs players it can build around and will take that franchise-altering player at No. 1.

But, we obviously have history in last year and the absolute haul the Bears got back. They didn't get 1 first rounder for moving back, they got two. The No. 9 pick, and what turned out to be the 1st overall in 2024, two additional 2nd rounders, and DJ Moore, who is an unquestionable No. 1 WR and is 26. 

A years back, the 49ers, who are considered the class of the NFL at this point, decided to move from No. 12 to No. 3 to take Trey Lance, and sent additional first and third rounders the next year, as well as ANOTHER first the following year. 

When the Rams decided to trade up to No. 1 and take Goff, they traded their first rounder that year (No. 15), two seconds, two thirds, and a first round pick the following year. 

Additionally, ESPN just put out an article yesterday that talked to different GM's around the league:

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If the Bears traded the first pick, the return could be immense. Several executives agree Chicago could net more than it did in the Panthers trade, and from a prospective trade partner already picking in the top five. Those execs believe the price to get to No. 1 could be two future first-rounders on top of this year's pick, along with a variation of a Day 2 pick and/or a premium veteran player on a manageable contract.

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https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39219170/chicago-bears-quarterback-justin-fields-caleb-williams-drake-maye-no-1-pick-2024-nfl-draft

So...yeah. 

[Sports Guy]

  On 1/4/2024 at 10:47 PM, almagest said:

I really, really doubt it. Cardinals are #4 right now and they might not take a QB. Also, teams will know the Bears aren't drafting a  QB at #1, so #2 and #3 become where you need to be. If any teams not taking QBs end up there you'll see trades to those slots.

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It doesn’t matter what the Bears aren’t doing, it’s teams having a chance to draft one of the best QB talents in the last 25 years.

 

[almagest]

  On 1/4/2024 at 10:52 PM, Tony said:

I don't really think any of this is true. The Bears are in a very unique position as a possible 8 win team and owning the No.1 overall pick. In most cases, the team holding the No. 1 pick needs players it can build around and will take that franchise-altering player at No. 1.

But, we obviously have history in last year and the absolute haul the Bears got back. They didn't get 1 first rounder for moving back, they got two. The No. 9 pick, and what turned out to be the 1st overall in 2024, two additional 2nd rounders, and DJ Moore, who is an unquestionable No. 1 WR and is 26. 

A years back, the 49ers, who are considered the class of the NFL at this point, decided to move from No. 12 to No. 3 to take Trey Lance, and sent additional first and third rounders the next year, as well as ANOTHER first the following year. 

When the Rams decided to trade up to No. 1 and take Goff, they traded their first rounder that year (No. 15), two seconds, two thirds, and a first round pick the following year. 

Additionally, ESPN just put out an article yesterday that talked to different GM's around the league:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39219170/chicago-bears-quarterback-justin-fields-caleb-williams-drake-maye-no-1-pick-2024-nfl-draft

So...yeah. 

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I don't think Moore was worth a first round pick last year, given his down year in 2022. After this year he definitely would be.

The 49ers and Rams are the exact cases I'm talking about - those are trades for +9 and +14 spots. The 49ers were also DESPERATE for a QB because they had a good team and couldn't find a competent QB. Lance was a huge bust and they'd still be in trouble if they didn't find Purdy.

That article is a more compelling source, but it seems to be more about the price the Bears would need to trade the pick based on the quality of the QBs available, not that anyone would meet it.

  Quote

Those execs believe the price to get to No. 1 could be two future first-rounders on top of this year's pick, along with a variation of a Day 2 pick and/or a premium veteran player on a manageable contract.

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And if someone in the top 5 offered that I would be genuinely concerned about how good Williams/Maye are to offer such a huge package to move up a couple spots to draft them. You'd also be banking on that team being terrible again and not being like the Texans this year, which seems less likely given the quality of the top 2 QBs. Drafting in the top 5 again is much more valuable than drafting in the back half.

[almagest]

  On 1/4/2024 at 10:54 PM, Sports Guy said:

It doesn’t matter what the Bears aren’t doing, it’s teams having a chance to draft one of the best QB talents in the last 25 years.

 

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Of course it matters. There's no reason to pay for the #1 pick if the Bears aren't taking a QB if you're #2 or #3, and depending on where teams who won't draft a QB are in the draft order, you completely change the potential number of teams interested in moving up to #1. This is why people are paying so much attention to draft order this year. You also have Jayden Daniels in that 1-B tier, and teams may be fine taking him instead of trading away a ton of draft capital.

Edited January 4, 2024 by almagest

[bigruss]

  On 1/4/2024 at 11:28 PM, almagest said:

I don't think Moore was worth a first round pick last year, given his down year in 2022. After this year he definitely would be.

The 49ers and Rams are the exact cases I'm talking about - those are trades for +9 and +14 spots. The 49ers were also DESPERATE for a QB because they had a good team and couldn't find a competent QB. Lance was a huge bust and they'd still be in trouble if they didn't find Purdy.

That article is a more compelling source, but it seems to be more about the price the Bears would need to trade the pick based on the quality of the QBs available, not that anyone would meet it.

And if someone in the top 5 offered that I would be genuinely concerned about how good Williams/Maye are to offer such a huge package to move up a couple spots to draft them. You'd also be banking on that team being terrible again and not being like the Texans this year, which seems less likely given the quality of the top 2 QBs. Drafting in the top 5 again is much more valuable than drafting in the back half.

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You’re over thinking the last part. GMs make dumb trades all the time with bad evaluations.  If someone thinks they have their guy they will go all out, who knows if they actually are right though.

[almagest]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:27 AM, bigruss said:

You’re over thinking the last part. GMs make dumb trades all the time with bad evaluations.  If someone thinks they have their guy they will go all out, who knows if they actually are right though.

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Maybe, but if someone is offering 3 overall firsts or 2 + additional players to move up 3 spots I'd be extremely wary of that offer.

[caulfield12]

  On 1/4/2024 at 10:47 PM, almagest said:

I really, really doubt it. Cardinals are #4 right now and they might not take a QB. Also, teams will know the Bears aren't drafting a  QB at #1, so #2 and #3 become where you need to be. If any teams not taking QBs end up there you'll see trades to those slots.

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They seem committed to Murray for now.  Almost no choice financially.

[Balta1701]

 

[caulfield12]

  On 1/4/2024 at 11:30 PM, almagest said:

Of course it matters. There's no reason to pay for the #1 pick if the Bears aren't taking a QB if you're #2 or #3, and depending on where teams who won't draft a QB are in the draft order, you completely change the potential number of teams interested in moving up to #1. This is why people are paying so much attention to draft order this year. You also have Jayden Daniels in that 1-B tier, and teams may be fine taking him instead of trading away a ton of draft capital.

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Daniels is certainly in the top ten if not 3-4...but outcomes with Nix and Penix are all over the place, from 9 to 39.  Then you have McCarthy as well floating in that same range.

[Balta1701]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:30 AM, almagest said:

Maybe, but if someone is offering 3 overall firsts or 2 + additional players to move up 3 spots I'd be extremely wary of that offer.

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If the Bears gave up the #1 pick and got MHJ, the Patriots 2025 and 2026 first rounders, and both of those came in around #15, I’d see no problem with that. 

[almagest]

  On 1/5/2024 at 1:55 AM, Balta1701 said:

If the Bears gave up the #1 pick and got MHJ, the Patriots 2025 and 2026 first rounders, and both of those came in around #15, I’d see no problem with that. 

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Why in the world would New England do that to move up 2 spots when the Bears likely aren't taking a QB in this scenario? They'd still have their choice of one of Maye/Williams/Daniels at 3 and wouldn't lose 2 first round picks. This is so ridiculously lopsided in favor of the Bears that it's completely unrealistic.

[Balta1701]

  On 1/5/2024 at 3:15 AM, almagest said:

Why in the world would New England do that to move up 2 spots when the Bears likely aren't taking a QB in this scenario? They'd still have their choice of one of Maye/Williams/Daniels at 3 and wouldn't lose 2 first round picks. This is so ridiculously lopsided in favor of the Bears that it's completely unrealistic.

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Because I can put together really good offers for the Giants or Raiders and they’re stuck with over drafting the number 3 QB.

[almagest]

  On 1/5/2024 at 1:52 AM, caulfield12 said:

Daniels is certainly in the top ten if not 3-4...but outcomes with Nix and Penix are all over the place, from 9 to 39.  Then you have McCarthy as well floating in that same range.

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Right. This could all change after the combine of course, but right now it's Williams & Maye, then Daniels right behind, then a mix of Nix/Penix/McCarthy in the later first or early second.

[Tony]

  On 1/5/2024 at 3:15 AM, almagest said:

Why in the world would New England do that to move up 2 spots when the Bears likely aren't taking a QB in this scenario? They'd still have their choice of one of Maye/Williams/Daniels at 3 and wouldn't lose 2 first round picks. This is so ridiculously lopsided in favor of the Bears that it's completely unrealistic.

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Because someone else could decide to move up and take the Bears pick, and if New England is enamored with Caleb Williams, it no longer is about the Bears not wanting to draft a QB, it’s about another team that feels the same way about Williams that New England does 

[almagest]

  On 1/5/2024 at 3:19 AM, Balta1701 said:

Because I can put together really good offers for the Giants or Raiders and they’re stuck with over drafting the number 3 QB.

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The Giants just signed Daniel Jones to a huge contract. They're not cutting bait now, with 3 years left. The Raiders pick 11th right now and they're WAY more likely to offer a package like you mentioned. They fit right into the range of spots to jump where I'd expect a lot of value. The Patriots could still beat that value without including the third first rounder, though, because the 3rd pick now is worth way more than the 11th pick now + the ?? pick in 2 years.

[Tony]

  On 1/5/2024 at 3:15 AM, almagest said:

Why in the world would New England do that to move up 2 spots when the Bears likely aren't taking a QB in this scenario? They'd still have their choice of one of Maye/Williams/Daniels at 3 and wouldn't lose 2 first round picks. This is so ridiculously lopsided in favor of the Bears that it's completely unrealistic.

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You are acting as if front offices all hold the same opinion on players. I can almost guarantee you there is a GM out there that believes Caleb Williams will be as good at Patrick Mahomes, and there is another GM in the league that wouldn’t draft Williams if he fell to pick No. 10. 

If a GM feels like a franchise changing QB is in this years draft, and the 1st overall pick is available, they will do what is needed to obtain their new QB superstar 

[almagest]

  On 1/5/2024 at 3:29 AM, Tony said:

Because someone else could decide to move up and take the Bears pick, and if New England is enamored with Caleb Williams, it no longer is about the Bears not wanting to draft a QB, it’s about another team that feels the same way about Williams that New England does 

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New England doesn't have to include as much value as a team that picks lower (assuming they stay at 3) because that pick is more valuable than first rounders a year or two away.

[bmags]

  On 1/5/2024 at 3:32 AM, almagest said:

The Giants just signed Daniel Jones to a huge contract. They're not cutting bait now, with 3 years left. The Raiders pick 11th right now and they're WAY more likely to offer a package like you mentioned. They fit right into the range of spots to jump where I'd expect a lot of value. The Patriots could still beat that value without including the third first rounder, though, because the 3rd pick now is worth way more than the 11th pick now + the ?? pick in 2 years.

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I think they can cut bait after this year though.

speaking of Giants…man did Joe Schoen flub inheriting 2 top seven picks. Thibodeauxs pressure rate is like 92nd in the league and Evan Neal is awful at OT.

The jets walked out of the same draft with Sauce Gardener and Garrett Wilson. Woof.

[almagest]

  On 1/5/2024 at 3:33 AM, Tony said:

You are acting as if front offices all hold the same opinion on players. I can almost guarantee you there is a GM out there that believes Caleb Williams will be as good at Patrick Mahomes, and there is another GM in the league that wouldn’t draft Williams if he fell to pick No. 10. 

If a GM feels like a franchise changing QB is in this years draft, and the 1st overall pick is available, they will do what is needed to obtain their new QB superstar 

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No, I just think it's unrealistic and ignoring how trading up has worked in the past in the NFL to hope that a top 5-8 team is gonna give you a king's ransom with multiple first rounders to trade up.

[Tony]

  On 1/5/2024 at 3:46 AM, almagest said:

No, I just think it's unrealistic and ignoring how trading up has worked in the past in the NFL to hope that a top 5-8 team is gonna give you a king's ransom with multiple first rounders to trade up.

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Have a feeling we're gonna find out

[almagest]

  On 1/5/2024 at 3:38 AM, bmags said:

I think they can cut bait after this year though.

speaking of Giants…man did Joe Schoen flub inheriting 2 top seven picks. Thibodeauxs pressure rate is like 92nd in the league and Evan Neal is awful at OT.

The jets walked out of the same draft with Sauce Gardener and Garrett Wilson. Woof.

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Looks like they can in 2025 for a $22 million cap hit. I'd assume they'd not draft a QB at the top of the draft and have him sit for a year behind Jones, though. If anything I'd bet on them trading back and drafting more of a project because they basically have to pay/play Jones.

[ptatc]

  On 1/5/2024 at 3:46 AM, Tony said:

Have a feeling we're gonna find out

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I don't think so. I think the bears take a QB at 1.