Benintendi, Suzuki, Yoshida

[Lip Man 1]

4 hours ago, BigHurt3515 said:

Amazing how fast guys drop off coming here

I honestly think some guys really don't want to be here but circumstances put them in that position and it shows. Also this organization has basically had a culture of losing since 2007 (only five winning seasons) players know this stuff and that has to make an impact.

[Chimpton]

7 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

I honestly think some guys really don't want to be here but circumstances put them in that position and it shows. Also this organization has basically had a culture of losing since 2007 (only five winning seasons) players know this stuff and that has to make an impact.

Also there is no real pressure on them to perform as the squad is so weak there is rarely ever anyone challenging them for their position.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Chimpton said:

Also there is no real pressure on them to perform as the squad is so weak there is rarely ever anyone challenging them for their position.

See Pollock last year... terrible body language the entire year. 

When Lowe on the Rays make a key out or doesn't advance runners... you can hear how exactly how upset he is from the field mikes every time. 

[caulfield12]

I keep hearing that $15 million per season is a fair price for Benintendi... but the way you win is guys that are 2-3x more productive and often younger for less AAV. 

 

"Absolute steal for the Pirates inking Reynolds. Less than $14MM AAV, and now with the DH in the NL, aging players who reach a point where they can’t play the field any longer still have value as long as they can still hit."

 

Ofc, that's yet another top flight FA off the market...leaving slimmer and slimmer pickings for the next two successive years of free agents the Sox would potentially be interested in. 

Moreover, continues to increase value of Shohei Ohtani on the trade and offseason FA market as well. 

 

Edited April 25, 2023 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

I keep hearing that $15 million per season is a fair price for Benintendi... but the way you win is guys that are 2-3x more productive and often younger for less AAV. 

 

"Absolute steal for the Pirates inking Reynolds. Less than $14MM AAV, and now with the DH in the NL, aging players who reach a point where they can’t play the field any longer still have value as long as they can still hit."

 

Ofc, that's yet another top flight FA off the market...leaving slimmer and slimmer pickings for the next two successive years of free agents the Sox would potentially be interested in. 

Moreover, continues to increase value of Shohei Ohtani on the trade and offseason FA market as well. 

 

What it comes down to is that it just is NOT that difficult to draft and develop a 2WAR corner outfielder. Free agency is a fine way to improve your roster, but in terms of dollars, it’s by far the most inefficient method available to teams.

Invariably, teams are going to end up with a hole or two to fill with average players, and so the premium is worth it to pay to complete the team. But if you find yourself spending the bulk of your budget building your roster with veteran role players through free agency, there’s just no way you can stretch it to the point that you can ensure you can also make sure you have depth, extend your stars, make aggressive deadline moves, etc.

The $/WAR number is a curve with a bump in the middle; there is surplus value to be found on both tails: cheap bounceback candidates on the low end and superstars on the high end. You never want to be in a position where you need to buy at the middle of that curve if you can avoid. Bizarrely, that seems to be the White Sox actual plan. Or at least they seems to be pretending that those players in the middle actually belong on the high tail.

Better franchises focus on developing the types of players that end up in the middle, and if they can do so in sufficient number, they can focus their free agent spending on the tails. You want BUY 26-year old Manny Machado instead of relying on being able to develop his equivalent out of the spoils of two or three trades.

Between this tendency to buy Benintendi-types and the fetish for signing veteran relievers at their peak market value, the White Sox FO seems malignantly obsessed with spending money in the least efficient way possible. It’s frankly embarrassing that this group is led by an Ivy League business grad, because the consistency of this tendency just defies explanation. 

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

What it comes down to is that it just is NOT that difficult to draft and develop a 2WAR corner outfielder. Free agency is a fine way to improve your roster, but in terms of dollars, it’s by far the most inefficient method available to teams.

Invariably, teams are going to end up with a hole or two to fill with average players, and so the premium is worth it to pay to complete the team. But if you find yourself spending the bulk of your budget building your roster with veteran role players through free agency, there’s just no way you can stretch it to the point that you can ensure you can also make sure you have depth, extend your stars, make aggressive deadline moves, etc.

The $/WAR number is a curve with a bump in the middle; there is surplus value to be found on both tails: cheap bounceback candidates on the low end and superstars on the high end. You never want to be in a position where you need to buy at the middle of that curve if you can avoid. Bizarrely, that seems to be the White Sox actual plan. Or at least they seems to be pretending that those players in the middle actually belong on the high tail.

Better franchises focus on developing the types of players that end up in the middle, and if they can do so in sufficient number, they can focus their free agent spending on the tails. You want BUY 26-year old Manny Machado instead of relying on being able to develop his equivalent out of the spoils of two or three trades.

Between this tendency to buy Benintendi-types and the fetish for signing veteran relievers at their peak market value, the White Sox FO seems malignantly obsessed with spending money in the least efficient way possible. It’s frankly embarrassing that this group is led by an Ivy League business grad, because the consistency of this tendency just defies explanation. 

It was either Kellogg or Univ.Michigan Business School. 

Harvard for JD. 

Hahn isn't exactly the front office equivalent of similarly-educated Quin Snyder...that's for sure. 

[caulfield12]

707 ops/.299 ba vs. .852

[Snopek]

Lol

 

[caulfield12]

The WBC Curse with Manny and Soto... well, basically everyone except Ohtani

 

2. The new additions haven't done much

"Andrew Benintendi is hitting .294/.348/.353 thus far and that is the most Andrew Benintendi line that ever Andrew Benintendied. Not great, not terrible, just fine. It's fine. Benintendi is a singles and some walks hitter and that's exactly what he's given the White Sox since signing his five-year, $75 million contract. Singles and some walks for a relatively low impact 96 OPS+."

 

 

[caulfield12]

Couldn't use Yoshida's .320/956 ops  6 homers and 24 RBIs at all. 

Even McGuire at .340 with 7 RBIs. 

[South Side Hit Men]

On 4/25/2023 at 2:06 PM, Eminor3rd said:

What it comes down to is that it just is NOT that difficult to draft and develop a 2WAR corner outfielder. Free agency is a fine way to improve your roster, but in terms of dollars, it’s by far the most inefficient method available to teams.

The $/WAR number is a curve with a bump in the middle; there is surplus value to be found on both tails: cheap bounceback candidates on the low end and superstars on the high end. You never want to be in a position where you need to buy at the middle of that curve if you can avoid. Bizarrely, that seems to be the White Sox actual plan. Or at least they seems to be pretending that those players in the middle actually belong on the high tail.

100%. The problem is they can only win FAs other teams don't want because the players are overpriced and on their last deal. Liam was the exception, primarily for a personal relationship with Tony.

The White Sox have drafted and fielded exactly ZERO 2+ bWAR corner outfielders in the Jerry "we have 29 dumb competitors" Reinsdorf 42 year era.

Let's be generous and include every internally developed White Sox player and any season regardless of position and see what the Sox have done.

25 Draft acquisitions with one or more 2+ bWAR White Sox Seasons in the Jerry Reinsdorf Era (1981-2022):

Primary White Sox 2+ bWAR Position:

• (1) Catcher (Ron Karkovice).
• (1) First Baseman (Frank Thomas).
• (1) Second Baseman (Ray Durham).
• (1) Shortstop (Tim Anderson).
• (3) Third Basemen (Gordon Beckham; Joe Crede; Robin Ventura).
• (3) Centerfielders (Mike Cameron; Aaron Rowand; Kenny Williams).
• (10) Starting Pitchers (Carlos Rodon; Chris Sale; Hector Santiago; Mike Sirotka; Jim Parque; Mark Buehrle; Jack McDowell; Alex Fernandez; Jason Bere; James Baldwin)
• (5) Relief Pitchers (Aaron Bummer; Nate Jones; Jake Petricka; Scott Radinsky; Bobby Thigpen).

Rick Hahn (2013-Jerry's Death)

• (5) SS Tim Anderson 2013 R1: 2016 2.4; 2018 3.7; 2019 4.2; 2020 2.3; 2021 4.7.
• (2) SP Carlos Rodon 2014 R1: 2018 2.0; 2021 5.1.
• (1) RP Aaron Bummer 2014 R19: 2019 2.8.

Kenny Williams (2001-2012)

• (1) 3B Gordon Beckham 2008 R1: 2009 2.1.
• (6) RP/SP* Chris Sale 2010 R1: 2011 2.4; 2012* 5.7; 2013* 6.5; 2014* 6.1; 2015* 3.4; 2016* 4.9.
• (2) RP Nate Jones 2007 R5: 2012 2.5; 2016 2.3.
• (1) SP Hector Santiago 2006 R30: 2013 2.7.
• (1) RP Jake Petricka 2010 R2: 2014 2.0.

Ron Schueler (1990-2000)

• (1) CF Mike Cameron 1991 R18: 1997 4.4.
• (2) SP Mike Sirotka 1993 R15: 1999 4.5; 2000 4.0.
• (1) SP Jim Parque 1997 R1: 2000 2.9
• (11) SP Mark Buehrle 1998 R38: 2001 6.0; 2002 5.0; 2003 2.5; 2004 4.2; 2005 4.8; 2006 2.3; 2007 6.1; 2008 4.4; 2009 5.3; 2010 3.8; 2011 3.8.
• (3) 3B Joe Crede 1996 R5: 2003 2.3; 2006 4.8; 2008 2.4.
• (2) CF Aaron Rowand 1998 R1: 2004 5.7; 2005 3.7.

Larry Himes (1987-1990)

• (13) 1B/DH* Frank Thomas 1989 R1: 1990 2.3; 1991* 7.0; 1992 7.0; 1993 6.2; 1994 6.4; 1995 5.3; 1996 5.6; 1997 7.3; 1998* 3.5; 1999* 2.3; 2000* 6.0; 2003* 4.3 2004* 2.8.
• (9) 3B Robin Ventura 1988 R1: 1990 2.4; 1991 5.3; 1992 6.0; 1993 5.3; 1994 3.0; 1995 4.7; 1996 4.8; 1997 2.1; 1998 5.8.
• (5) SP Jack McDowell 1987 R1: 1991 4.3; 1992 5.3; 1993 4.4; 1994 3.8; 1995 4.0.
• (4) SP Alex Fernandez 1990 R1: 1993 5.4; 1994 3.0; 1995 3.8; 1996 6.4.
• (2) SP Jason Bere 1990 R36: 1993 2.6; 1994 2.8.
• (6) 2B Ray Durham 1990 R5: 1996 3.1; 1998 4.4; 1999 2.5; 2000 3.1; 2001 4.3; 2002 3.4.
• (3) SP James Baldwin 1990 R4: 1996 2.5; 1999 2.4; 2000 2.8

Ken "Hawk" Harrelson (1986)

• (1) RP Scott Radinsky 1986 R3: 1991 2.2.

Roland Hemond (1981-1985)

• (2) RP Bobby Thigpen 1985 R4: 1987 2.2; 1990 3.5.
• (1) CF Kenny Williams 1982 R3: 1989 2.1.
• (3) C Ron Karkovice 1982 R1: 1990 2.0; 1992 2.1; 1993 3.2.

Players inherited from Veeck / Hemond (1976-1980):

• (8) RF/DH* Harold Baines 1977 R1: 1981 2.2; 1982 3.4; 1983 2.2; 1984 4.3; 1985 2.4; 1986 2.9; 1989* 3.4; 1996* 2.8.
• (3) SP Britt Burns 1978 R3: 1981 3.9; 1983 2.1; 1985 4.2.

[zisk]

Will give Benni a pass for now. Broken hands usually cause a power outage the next year. Look for a pick up in doubles and homers after the all star break.

[caulfield12]

Alex Call 654, Benintendi 649. 

Actually has improved his defense from last year, -2.3 in both categories. 

0.0 fWAR. 

Last year +13.6 on offense and 2.8 fWAR. 

Comps to Pollock/Peralta fall off continue, albeit still only 28. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://www.mlb.com/news/masataka-yoshida-turnaround-metrics

Guess we can add Gallo (decent)  and Conforto (terrible after the long layoff) to the list... but they are more known for RF than left. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by caulfield12

[Bob Sacamano]

Why is Suzuki even being compared here? He signed a different off-season.

Edited May 9, 2023 by Bob Sacamano

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Why is Suzuki even being compared here? He signed a different off-season.

Simply because he's a contemporary of those other two players and would have easily slotted into the RF spot had they not been pinning all their hopes and aspirations on Oscar Colas. 

Similar salaries/contracts across the board...not far off each other in age, Yoshida obviously the oldest and most likely eventually a full time DH, but not for another year or two. 

Finally, the risk of not thinking outside the box and/or the lack of Pacific Rim scouts and seemingly never looking at Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese players...other than Tanaka at one point. 

 

(Pretty clearly that money, Point 2, instead was allocated towards paying younger players their ongoing extensions and then all the veterans...Hendriks, Lynn, the Grandal deal ongoing, bullpen/utility guys, Keuchel and finally Benintendi/Clevinger.) 

 

Finally, the Cubs are looking at being a legit player for Ohtani,  and those two players could play key roles in recruiting/cheerleading this offseason (Yoshida to Bos). So leverage for a once in a generation talent in Shohei, like Friends and Family, Jay/Alonso.

Odds are still higher that he goes to Dodgers, Angels, Mets or Yankees. Giants, have money but competitiveness?  Padres if they give up on extending Soto and instead turn around and trade him or, much less likely, Machado. Mariners and Rangers, outside shots.  Ichiro legacy in Seattle and formerly owned by Nintendo.  Rangers spending like mad to catch up with Astros in same state. 

 

 

Edited May 9, 2023 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://www.mlb.com/news/best-offseason-acquisitions-2023

 Masataka Yoshida (Red Sox)
How acquired: Signed from NPB's Orix Buffaloes via posting system (5 years, $90 million)

“Yoshida was an elite contact hitter and on-base machine in Japan; now he's an elite contact hitter and on-base machine in MLB. The lefty-swinging outfielder is one of nine qualified hitters with more walks than strikeouts this season. Yoshida is a top 25 hitter by batting average (.299) and on-base percentage (.378), and a top 40 hitter by slugging percentage (.493) and OPS (.871). What a great signing. Maybe he'll even be a dark-horse MVP candidate.”

The likes of Gallo, Eeovaldi (vs. Clevinger), Rooker and Arraez listed.  Two ex Twins and one incoming. KC the last team to roster Rooker prior to Oakland.

[caulfield12]

Alex Call will be at 0.3 fWAR after tonight, 641 ops

Benintendi, 0.5 fWAR and 680 ops

Difference in salary, significant. 

[caulfield12]

Might as well add Conforto to the list along with Gallo…

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy-baseball-waiver-wire-top-players-to-add-streamers-to-target-153750915.html

 

“Conforto brings a slugging component to outfield group in this article, having reclaimed his power stroke by hitting seven homers this month. This is the perfect time to grab the 30-year-old, as he has long fared best against right-handers and is scheduled to face righty starters in eight of his next nine games.”

Even though he’s more expensive per year, the two year timeline was perfect…and the White Sox really could have used that $39 million they won’t have in 2025/26/27 due to the much larger overall commitment to Benintendi.

Edited May 26, 2023 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Yoshida .313/.875

Suzuki  .288/.861

Benintendi .268/.681

[fathom]

On pace for less than 40 RBI this year 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 4/25/2023 at 12:06 PM, Eminor3rd said:

What it comes down to is that it just is NOT that difficult to draft and develop a 2WAR corner outfielder. Free agency is a fine way to improve your roster, but in terms of dollars, it’s by far the most inefficient method available to teams.

Invariably, teams are going to end up with a hole or two to fill with average players, and so the premium is worth it to pay to complete the team. But if you find yourself spending the bulk of your budget building your roster with veteran role players through free agency, there’s just no way you can stretch it to the point that you can ensure you can also make sure you have depth, extend your stars, make aggressive deadline moves, etc.

The $/WAR number is a curve with a bump in the middle; there is surplus value to be found on both tails: cheap bounceback candidates on the low end and superstars on the high end. You never want to be in a position where you need to buy at the middle of that curve if you can avoid. Bizarrely, that seems to be the White Sox actual plan. Or at least they seems to be pretending that those players in the middle actually belong on the high tail.

Better franchises focus on developing the types of players that end up in the middle, and if they can do so in sufficient number, they can focus their free agent spending on the tails. You want BUY 26-year old Manny Machado instead of relying on being able to develop his equivalent out of the spoils of two or three trades.

Between this tendency to buy Benintendi-types and the fetish for signing veteran relievers at their peak market value, the White Sox FO seems malignantly obsessed with spending money in the least efficient way possible. It’s frankly embarrassing that this group is led by an Ivy League business grad, because the consistency of this tendency just defies explanation. 

I love this post ! It's pure truth without the Hahn and JR sucks attached to them. It explains why they suck and why they always are mediocre to bad when the mediocre get overpaid.

It's why they couldn't even fail at losing enough to get top 3 draft choices over and over. They traded youth for mediocre to bad players and did the same thing with free agency while ignoring anything to do with bringing in youth and developing it. They brought in just enough mediocre players during the rebuild to have mediocre losing seasons when they needed elite losing seasons.

The only vision the Sox front office seems to have is tunnel vision.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 5/7/2023 at 6:44 AM, zisk said:

Will give Benni a pass for now. Broken hands usually cause a power outage the next year. Look for a pick up in doubles and homers after the all star break.

But can you give the front office a pass knowing that they needed a player at his healthiest this season and giving him $75M for 5 years without knowing know the surgery he had in Sept. 2022 was going to affect him. Obviously it's affected him greatly.

I'm not even 100 % sure he had surgery. Lots of articles said he needs surgery and will get surgery but finally found one that said he had surgery and that was MLBTR.

As far as an uptick goes, he has nowhere to go but up from 0 HR's and a huge drop in his hard hit rate.

TA and benni both can't be at the top of the order until one of them shows they are fully healthy. Maybe one can but not both.

[zisk]

On 5/31/2023 at 2:38 PM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

But can you give the front office a pass knowing that they needed a player at his healthiest this season and giving him $75M for 5 years without knowing know the surgery he had in Sept. 2022 was going to affect him. Obviously it's affected him greatly.

I'm not even 100 % sure he had surgery. Lots of articles said he needs surgery and will get surgery but finally found one that said he had surgery and that was MLBTR.

As far as an uptick goes, he has nowhere to go but up from 0 HR's and a huge drop in his hard hit rate.

TA and benni both can't be at the top of the order until one of them shows they are fully healthy. Maybe one can but not both.

Agreed

[caulfield12]

https://www.tokyo-dome.co.jp/en/tourists/dome/events.html

 

Doing some scouting lol.

Does anyone want to recommend Tokyo Dome games between July 2nd and July 11th...

Really wanted to see Roki Sasaki but pretty sure he plays for Orix (or at least a team outside immediate Tokyo area.)

Am also going to attempt to make it to the Ichiro Suzuki museum in his boyhood home that his parents used to run but not sure if it's still in operation.

I know there's at least 1-2 SoxTalk JPL experts!

Thanks in advance for your time and consideration.