Padres Thread 2023

[South Side Hit Men]

On 5/14/2023 at 4:32 PM, GreenSox said:

Preller has some Hahn in him; doesn't appear to be great at building a team.   And he started off like Hahn, trading for veterans.

There are distinguishing features of course:  Preller is a superior evaluator of young prospects,  the players he's assembled are superior to anything Hahn's put together, etc.

They have the same exact complete garbage results. The Padres are one of the few teams in worse shape than the Sox at this stage, due to the ridiculous contracts they are stuck with, and the fact there is a chance Jerry won’t own the team in 2033.

2013-2022 (Average annual payroll)

• San Diego 707-811 .466 ($114M)
• Chicago A. L. 700-817 .461 ($115M)

Contracts:

• 2034 - Tatis Jr.
• 2033 - Bogaerts & Machado
• 2028 - Darvish
• 2027 - Musgrove

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

They have the same exact complete garbage results. The Padres are one of the few teams in worse shape than the Sox at this stage, due to the ridiculous contracts they are stuck with, and the fact there is a chance Jerry won’t own the team in 2033.

2013-2022 (Average annual payroll)

• San Diego 707-811 .466 ($114M)
• Chicago A. L. 700-817 .461 ($115M)

Contracts:

• 2034 - Tatis Jr.
• 2033 - Bogaerts & Machado
• 2028 - Darvish
• 2027 - Musgrove

Well, except for winning three playoff series and

 

Attendance

2018  18th/26,837

2019  14th/29,585

2020   0

2021  3rd/27,061

2022  5th/36,931

2023  5th/39,947

 

White Sox haven't been in the Top Ten since 2006, a full 17 years now.

Once again, the 27th or 28th biggest media market in the majors.  That, alone, is a major success for one of the least winning-est franchises in all of MLB since their inception.

They also have a Top 5 ballpark, the weather/lifestyle to attract FA's and $20 million invested in the Gallagher Square area that will bounce back to Seidler.

https://ballparkdigest.com/2023/05/30/padres-prepping-gallagher-square-renovations-for-2024/

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by caulfield12

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, except for winning three playoff series and

Attendance

2018  18th/26,837

2019  14th/29,585

2020   0

2021  3rd/27,061

2022  5th/36,931

2023  5th/39,947

White Sox haven't been in the Top Ten since 2006, a full 17 years now.

Once again, the 27th or 28th biggest media market in the majors.  That, alone, is a major success for one of the least winning-est franchises in all of MLB since their inception.

They also have a Top 5 ballpark, the weather/lifestyle to attract FA's and $20 million invested in the Gallagher Square area that will bounce back to Seidler.

https://ballparkdigest.com/2023/05/30/padres-prepping-gallagher-square-renovations-for-2024/

There is a bunch of incoherent half truths and opinions above, beyond "attendance" and winning "a total of three playoff series" are past results, not necessarily future expectations. Preller is Hahn with an extra zero at the end when it comes to a series of terrible free agent signings.

My initial post, both teams have suck ass on the field over the past decade, have sucked ass this season, and both spent the same $ to get to suck ass, is correct and accurate.

Let's address the other factors Caufield threw out there that of course had little to do with my post.

1. Finances - Sox lead most metrics, San Diego has maxed out current value and has insane future contract issues.
   • Current Value: White Sox $2.05B vs. San Diego $1.75B
   • Year over year change: White Sox 16% vs. San Diego 11%
   • Debt/Value: White Sox 7% vs. San Diego 17%
   • 2022 Revenue: White Sox $276M vs. San Diego $324M
   • Operating Income: Same -$53M Forbes Estimate
   • Future Contracts: White Sox $163.4M vs. San Diego $1,278.8M
2. Organization - Ownership clear San Diego Advantage, Front Offices - Both Suck:
   • Current Ownership - Current Clear Advantage San Diego vs. Jerry Reinsdorf, one of the worst in the history of sports.
   • Current Front Office / Organization - Major Leagues - Both Suck, Minor Leagues - Advantage San Diego.
3. On field performance - Clear Long Term Advantage White Sox, tie past decade (Hahn vs. Preller)
   • Long Term - White Sox Advantage
     • All Time Record: White Sox .502 (11th) vs. San Diego .464 (29th) Miami .461.
     • Post-season 1969-2022 - Tie World Series White Sox 1-0; Pennants Padres 2-1
     • 90 Win Seasons 1969-2022: White Sox 8 vs. San Diego 4
     • Winning Seasons 1969-2022 (Over .500): White Sox 23 vs. San Diego 16
   • Recent Performance - Tie (0.7 wins/season difference San Diego 707-811 .466 vs. Chicago 700-817 .461)
   • Recent Pennants / World Series - Slight edge to San Diego only because they advanced once to lose 4-1 in the 2022 NLCS. Neither team sniffed a Pennant or World Series victory since 2005.
4. Fan Base - San Diego has a current advantage, new ownership could swing this to the White Sox advantage over the next ten years
   • Demographics:
     • Population *: Tie Chicago Metro Area 3.3M vs. San Diego County 3.1M
     • Income: San Diego Metro Area $121K over Chicago Metro Area $100K
   • Political Environment: Both Suck - Tie, San Diego edge locally, White Sox edge as a state.
   • Stadium
     • Opened: San Diego 2004 vs. Chicago 1991
     • Capacity Tie: Chicago 40,615 vs. San Diego 40,209
     • Recent Attendance: San Diego clear advantage
     • Local Competition: San Diego 0 Teams vs. Chicago 4 Teams

Note *: The White Sox and Cubs split the area in terms of attendance and interest until MLB prevented Ed Debartolo from purchasing the team. Jerry Reinsdorf's greed, avarice, and hatred of mankind has shifted the fan allegiance to approximately 67% Cubs and 33% White Sox.

New Ownership could shift the balance back, or leave the area. This is an unknown until after Jerry dies. The Chicago Metropolitan area has 9.9M people, so 3.3M were assigned to the White Sox based on destruction of approximately 1.7M fans over Jerry's 43 carpetbagging years.

[GreenSox]

Preller doesn’t have a farm in the 26-30 range.  Preller can identify young talent.  Hahn cannot.

Edited June 5, 2023 by GreenSox

[Quin]

4 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Preller doesn’t have a farm in the 26-30 range.  Preller can identify young talent.  Hahn cannot.

Preller's gonna have to trade it all to save his job, because despite spending fat stacks of cash + three superstars + several other All-Star caliber players, they only have one more win than the  White Sox.

Baseball is wild.

[chitownsportsfan]

2 hours ago, Quin said:

Preller's gonna have to trade it all to save his job, because despite spending fat stacks of cash + three superstars + several other All-Star caliber players, they only have one more win than the  White Sox.

Baseball is wild.

Reminds me of a frustrating OOTP season where your team is stacked on paper but then some s%*# goes wrong early, your division is absolutely loaded, and you recover a bit in mid summer but wind up with 85 wins or so and miss the playoffs by a few games.  Not a bad season, but relative to expectations a complete bust.

Edited June 5, 2023 by chitownsportsfan

[Quin]

37 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Reminds me of a frustrating OOTP season where your team is stacked on paper but then some s%*# goes wrong early, your division is absolutely loaded, and you recover a bit in mid summer but wind up with 85 wins or so and miss the playoffs by a few games.  Not a bad season, but relative to expectations a complete bust.

They learned what last year's White Sox did.

Don't post stupid memes early in the season.

[caulfield12]

https://www.eastvillagetimes.com/former-padres-top-prospects-where-are-they-now/

[caulfield12]

Seidler is the type of aggressive, win at all costs owner everyone claims to want... a lot like Mike Ilitch Sr., and that's suddenly now a bad thing lol? 

Financial responsibility and risk aversion are now things to be cheered for? 

At least their fans still have hope. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

And while they couldn't play much worse, they're still in 6th position for a postseason spot and the Phils and Pads last year proved all you need to do is get in. 

And have significantly more talent than typical teams from the AL and NL Central. 

[Quin]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.eastvillagetimes.com/former-padres-top-prospects-where-are-they-now/

The Rick Hahn philosophy:

Quote

The nature of the business is to deal unproven players to strengthen the major league roster, The Padres did just that as they came into relevancy. Sure, you’d like a homegrown team of players drafted and cultivated within the system. But the Padres did not have the time to develop that. They needed results now, and one cannot argue with the talented group at Petco Park currently.

But I didn't check the publication date, cause this was from two months ago. I'm sure at FriarTalk there are definitely some people arguing with the talented group at Petco Park currently.

Again, they have one more win than the current White Sox.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Quin said:

The Rick Hahn philosophy:

But I didn't check the publication date, cause this was from two months ago. I'm sure at FriarTalk there are definitely some people arguing with the talented group at Petco Park currently.

Again, they have one more win than the current White Sox.

All that said, to argue the White Sox are better positioned is pretty crazy.

I mean, personally I would take watching Trout and Ohtani over having 1/2 a star in Robert if you’re both missing the playoffs and talking about pure entertainment value. 

[Quin]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

All that said, to argue the White Sox are better positioned is pretty crazy.

I mean, personally I would take watching Trout and Ohtani over having 1/2 a star in Robert if you’re both missing the playoffs and talking about pure entertainment value. 

Oh I'm definitely not arguing the Sox are better positioned. The Sox are in hell. Like, quite possibly only the A's are in a worse spot at the moment.

But the Padres are in a very not-good state. They've spent insane amounts of cash and Tatis thinks the baseball gods are punishing them.

And Trout and Ohtani are on the Angels, not the Padres. I would also prefer watching two of the most talented baseball players of all time instead of the White Sox. I would also be just as livid at Arte Moreno as Jerry Reinsdorf for squandering them.

[iWiN4PreP]

as a fan of padres and the white sox...

 

padres are in a slump, but as a fan - i can see a vision to where they overcome it and make the wild card and just dominate

for the white sox, i feel like they are void of hope. yeah, the al central sucks so theres always the hope of winning the division and getting hot in the playoffs, but their team just sucks so bad and theres no stars on the team to carry them.

 

give me soto, tatis, machado in the playoffs 

 

[South Side Hit Men]

2 hours ago, iWiN4PreP said:

as a fan of padres and the white sox...

padres are in a slump, but as a fan - i can see a vision to where they overcome it and make the wild card and just dominate

give me soto, tatis, machado in the playoffs 

Having watched baseball for close to a half century, I can tell you when it comes to the postseason, give me a team full of the best starters over the team with a few "stars". This isn't the NBA (top player) or NFL (QB driven).

The only World Series won over the past collective century by these two teams combined was because of Buehrle, Garcia, Contreras and Garland. El Duque and a tight bullpen. Sure, they had solid position players such as AJ, Konerko and a few more with solid seasons. But they weren't winning without the rotation.

Do the Padres have a better shot this year (slim vs. White Sox none)? Sure.

Do the Padres have a legitimate shot? I wouldn't take 10-1 odds on it, possibly a flier on 30-1 or better, or the same as 30 random unweighted MLB lottery balls, Don't have confidence in that rotation.

The Sox will need 3-4 years minimum to rebuild the organization with a new owner, but they have no long term bad contracts for the next window beyond Benintendi, they can install a new FO (Padres signed Preller through 2026, good luck with that) and create a new organization from scratch that can build a sustainable winning organization if there is a mandate from a new owner. But until Jerry is dead or cells, so are the Sox' chances. 

White Sox Analytics since 1981:

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

Current probability - by 2030.

Edited June 5, 2023 by South Side Hit Men

[GreenSox]

8 hours ago, Quin said:

Preller's gonna have to trade it all to save his job, because despite spending fat stacks of cash + three superstars + several other All-Star caliber players, they only have one more win than the  White Sox.

Baseball is wild.

I think Peller would be better off not making so many trades and using more of his young players.  Hahn, of course, absolutely buried the Sox with his lazy and reckless young-for-old trades, especially in his first try.  I can't think of a single Hahn young-for-old trade that ended up a big net plus (there may be one, but I can't think of it).
The Sox aren't set up poorly for the future...IF the FO was capable.  There's a lot of things they could do, including finessing this upcoming July trade period.  But, they can't and won'.

Edited June 5, 2023 by GreenSox

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

I think Peller would be better off not making so many trades and using more of his young players.  Hahn, of course, absolutely buried the Sox with his lazy and reckless young-for-old trades, especially in his first try.  I can't think of a single Hahn young-for-old trade that ended up a big net plus (there may be one, but I can't think of it).
The Sox aren't set up poorly for the future...IF the FO was capable.  There's a lot of things they could do, including finessing this upcoming July trade period.  But, they can't and won'.

The Padres' biggest problem right now is they don't have a true ace like Musgrove and Darvish in recent seasons and they've traded away so much, injuries and/or non performance.  Weathers has just been so so. 

Most Padres' fans probably would undo the Soto and even Hader trades.  Certainly Clevinger. 

Another REALLY bad one was Mariners obtain Ty France, Andres Munoz, Luis Torrens, Matt Brash, and Taylor Trammell for Austin Nola, Austin Adams, and Dan Altavilla.

Finally, lots of useful spare parts players like Esteury Ruiz, Suwinski, Marcano or Ruben Mateo who would be invaluable scoring runs in close and tight games now. Those trade throw-ins would immensely help to balance the current roster. 

 

Yes, lot of names.  Preller always includes a boatload in nearly every deal. 

Edited June 6, 2023 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://sports.yahoo.com/the-juan-soto-trade-left-big-shoes-to-fill--enter-6-foot-6-center-fielder-james-wood-225351336.html

Washington's James Wood, baseball's next great superstar, 6'6" CFer now in AA ball, 1/5th of Juan Soto trade

https://www.mlbdraftleague.com/video/james-wood-s-solo-home-run-x2927?t=milb-top-videos

https://www.mlbdraftleague.com/video/james-wood-s-three-hits?t=milb-top-videos

 

https://theathletic.com/4378592/2023/04/04/cactus-league-scouting-padres-ethan-salas/

Keith Law on baseball's next superstar catcher, 16 year old Ethan Salas...now 17 in the California League

https://www.milb.com/player/ethan-salas-806956

 

This is why Preller will always have a job in baseball...and the inability to find players like this will be the end of Hahn.

Edited June 6, 2023 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Let's summarize it quite simply (outside the horrific hitting with RISP and BA)

24/60 games the Padres have scored 1 or 0 runs.  That's second worst in the majors to the A's, 32 times.

2-22 record in those games

 

Team ERA is actually 2nd in the NL...and other than Tim Hill (LHR) and Hader having 3 blown saves, they've been surprisingly resilient.

In the end, they're going to sink or swim based on their four stars performing up to their contracts.  It's as simple as that.

 

Also 21 sellouts already...about to beat club record within the next homestand or two...and that's with one of the most disappointing teams in baseball so far.   Obviously sold so many tickets (and created a waiting list) based on last year's post-season and addition of Xander Bogaerts (currently injured).

Edited June 6, 2023 by caulfield12

[South Side Hit Men]

Preller spends a s%*# load on prior performance across all 26 roster spots. Future performance is what matters.

Padres six primary 2023 starters:

1. Darvish $25.0M Age 36, 11 GS, 4.10 ERA, ERA+ 99, 0.5 bWAR, 4.4 and 1.4 last two seasons.
2. Wacha $7.5M Age 31, 11 GS, 3.48 ERA, ERA+ 116, 0.8 bWAR, 3.3 and -0.5 last two seasons.
3. Snell $16.6M Age 30, 11 GS, 4.50 ERA, ERA+ 90, 0.1 bWAR, 2.1 and 1.4 last two seasons.
4. Lugo $7.5M Age 33, 8 GS, 4.10 ERA, ERA+ 99, 0.3 bWAR, 0.8 and 0.7 last two seasons.
5. Musgrove $20.0M Age 30, 7 GS, 4.71 ERA, ERA+ 87, -0.1 bWAR,  3.3 and 3.7 last two seasons.
6. Weathers $0.7MAge 23, 7 GS, 5.09 ERA, ERA+ 80, -0.2 bWAR, -0.2 and -0.3 last two seasons.

Total Starting bWAR 1.4 $75.3M

White Sox Starters bWAR: 2.5 $44.7M  (Giolito 1.2; Clevinger 1.0; Kopech 0.9; Cease 0.3; Lynn -0.9)

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Preller spends a s%*# load on prior performance across all 26 roster spots. Future performance is what matters.

Padres six primary 2023 starters:

1. Darvish $25.0M Age 36, 11 GS, 4.10 ERA, ERA+ 99, 0.5 bWAR, 4.4 and 1.4 last two seasons.
2. Wacha $7.5M Age 31, 11 GS, 3.48 ERA, ERA+ 116, 0.8 bWAR, 3.3 and -0.5 last two seasons.
3. Snell $16.6M Age 30, 11 GS, 4.50 ERA, ERA+ 90, 0.1 bWAR, 2.1 and 1.4 last two seasons.
4. Lugo $7.5M Age 33, 8 GS, 4.10 ERA, ERA+ 99, 0.3 bWAR, 0.8 and 0.7 last two seasons.
5. Musgrove $20.0M Age 30, 7 GS, 4.71 ERA, ERA+ 87, -0.1 bWAR,  3.3 and 3.7 last two seasons.
6. Weathers $0.7MAge 23, 7 GS, 5.09 ERA, ERA+ 80, -0.2 bWAR, -0.2 and -0.3 last two seasons.

Total Starting bWAR 1.4 $75.3M

White Sox Starters bWAR: 2.5 $44.7M  (Giolito 1.2; Clevinger 1.0; Kopech 0.9; Cease 0.3; Lynn -0.9)

Yet that's the rotaton for the team with the second lowest ERA in the NL. 

What is it for fWAR (team wise) after tonight? 

The White Sox bullpen has been loads of awful and just happens to be the most expensive pen in the history of the sport. 

 

 

It's 3.2 for the White Sox and 6.4-6.6 for SD depending on where the numbers land from another shutout. 

Edited June 6, 2023 by caulfield12

[Kyyle23]

Lol caulfield this is funny.  Keep on rolling I’m pretty sure at the end we can compare how many hot dogs each team can eat in one sitting and declare them the winner of the most mediocre hyped teams ever 

[caulfield12]

Runs scored over the last eight games

 

9,1,10,1,6,1,5,1

 

2-23 in games with 0 or 1 runs scored

[caulfield12]

15 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

Lol caulfield this is funny.  Keep on rolling I’m pretty sure at the end we can compare how many hot dogs each team can eat in one sitting and declare them the winner of the most mediocre hyped teams ever 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Fangraphs doesn't agree with you, since 62% of the season still remains... 

[Kyyle23]

Where am I looking for the hot dog consumption column

[Quin]

30 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Where am I looking for the hot dog consumption column

Look for HDC/9