If Anderson has suffered a serious knee injury…and team struggles into May at 14-19/13-20

[caulfield12]

It pretty much spells the death of the rebuild.  Of course, it could just as easily be Moncada’s season heading south again with the back, right?

In that case, trying to think of any players that WOULDN’T be traded or would likely be the core of the team moving forward.

Robert and Cease are the most valuable assets on the roster.  Perhaps the only two really premium assets remaining.

 

Surely, Lynn, Giolito, Reynaldo (really team friendly extension possible, but premature…limited time to decide), Clevinger, Graveman, Bummer, Kelly would all be gone…Benintendi’s presence really makes zero sense in a rebuilding situation but 50/50 Hahn would have to keep him after he just signed for five long years.  Moncada salary dumped upon the highest bidder.  Same with Grandal, Alberto, Andrus.

 

What to do with Kopech if you’re not going to extend him?  He won’t be around in time for the next rebuild to gel.

What value does Jimenez realistically have if he can’t stay healthy even as a full time DH?   Two more big decisions with these two.

 

TA7 (depends on the seriousness of his injury and readiness of Colson), Kopech, Crochet, Hendriks (unless trade value returns in 2023), Colas, Vaughn are players you would expect to still be around for various reasons, Zavala/Perez, Romy, Sosa, etc.  Colson Montgomery could be a big league starter by late this year but likelier to be May, 2023, already missing April with the oblique).  Burger pretty much would have to take over third for Moncada, and Sheets would stick for DH/1B/PH (need offense from SOMEWHERE) despite both players being increasingly out of place in a speed/defense-oriented game.

Seems a decision on Dylan Cease (trade/extend) is really going to be the next domino to fall if things start to go south and attendance craters.  And it’s not like they can offer him the same deal Byron Buxton accepted…it would be for at least $125-140 million.  For a extreme velocity/stuff pitcher with TJ in his past.

Bleak bleak bleak…but hopefully Hahn isn’t allowed to make a single one of these critical decisions moving forward.

Edited April 11, 2023 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

They aren't going to rebuild again. They don't have Sale, Q and Eaton on team friendly contracts to extract no brainer prospects from other teams. Without those, the previous rebuild would still be ongoing. 

 

Besides, even the slightest rebuild is admitting they were wrong. That is something they don't do. 

Edited April 11, 2023 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

So basically what they would have to do is execute the same turnarounds the Guardians and Twins executed…with the closest parallel being Minnesota.

As pointed out with the Twins’ analogy, Kopech would NOW be the closest approximation to Jose Berrios.

Over a year ago, it would have been Lucas Giolito.

 

And Cease would play the role of Buxton getting extended.

 

And Robert internally the closest approximation to signing Carlos Correa.

 

The problem with all that is we would be left with Cease and what else as the starting rotation in 2024?   Let’s say we got at least 2-3 AA/AAA pitchers back for Kopech and/or Tim Anderson, we’re still three spots short unless you are willing to count on someone like Martin or Mena as your fifth.

So that means you’re taking a massive gamble and replacing at least three rotation spots externally and one internally.

Hold onto Kopech and how do you manage to get TWO or THREE legit starting prospects for what we currently have on the roster?

Trade Jimenez and Moncada for 30-50 cents on the dollar?   Every time you deal someone you open yet another hole in the dike or dam that starts spurting water out.

 

[caulfield12]

There’s nothing worse than being halfway in…halfway out.

That’s precisely where the Sox spent 2013-2016, even with Sale Q Eaton Abreu Shark Frazier Robertson Dunn Melky, etc.

Same exact place we are heading for in 2023.  Third place, with a #11-15 draft pick but not a Top Ten in sight unless the wheels totally come off.

 

We are basically the MLB version of the Bulls right now.  No Bulls fan in their right mind would bet on them getting out of the first round even if they miraculously made it out of the play-in tournament.

Edited April 11, 2023 by caulfield12

[Kyyle23]

Ok

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Ok

I predicted 15-18 looking at that Bataan Death March of an early schedule…and that was before losing three starting position players, two relievers basically imploded and Joe Kelly managed to get hurt running in from the bullpen.

Other than 1984, we don’t have many Sox franchise examples of poor starts turning out well in the end. 

(Well, at least until Jerry Dybzynski and Tito Landrum struck.)

 

[JTB]

That was ‘83.

[Quin]

The feeling when you get to post your draft from February.

[SCCWS]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

It pretty much spells the death of the rebuild.  Of course, it could just as easily be Moncada’s season heading south again with the back, right?

In that case, trying to think of any players that WOULDN’T be traded or would likely be the core of the team moving forward.

Robert and Cease are the most valuable assets on the roster.  Perhaps the only two really premium assets remaining.

 

Surely, Lynn, Giolito, Reynaldo (really team friendly extension possible, but premature…limited time to decide), Clevinger, Graveman, Bummer, Kelly would all be gone…Benintendi’s presence really makes zero sense in a rebuilding situation but 50/50 Hahn would have to keep him after he just signed for five long years.  Moncada salary dumped upon the highest bidder.  Same with Grandal, Alberto, Andrus.

 

What to do with Kopech if you’re not going to extend him?  He won’t be around in time for the next rebuild to gel.

What value does Jimenez realistically have if he can’t stay healthy even as a full time DH?   Two more big decisions with these two.

 

TA7 (depends on the seriousness of his injury and readiness of Colson), Kopech, Crochet, Hendriks (unless trade value returns in 2023), Colas, Vaughn are players you would expect to still be around for various reasons, Zavala/Perez, Romy, Sosa, etc.  Colson Montgomery could be a big league starter by late this year but likelier to be May, 2023, already missing April with the oblique).  Burger pretty much would have to take over third for Moncada, and Sheets would stick for DH/1B/PH (need offense from SOMEWHERE) despite both players being increasingly out of place in a speed/defense-oriented game.

Seems a decision on Dylan Cease (trade/extend) is really going to be the next domino to fall if things start to go south and attendance craters.  And it’s not like they can offer him the same deal Byron Buxton accepted…it would be for at least $125-140 million.  For a extreme velocity/stuff pitcher with TJ in his past.

Bleak bleak bleak…but hopefully Hahn isn’t allowed to make a single one of these critical decisions moving forward.

I asked you the same question last week. Despite a very mediocre season last year, the Sox increased attendance by 300,000+ in 2022.  While will attendance crater this year if it increased last year despite TLR and a lot of injuries?  I think 2023 will see attendance up by over 500,000.

[The CashMan]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

It pretty much spells the death of the rebuild.  Of course, it could just as easily be Moncada’s season heading south again with the back, right?

In that case, trying to think of any players that WOULDN’T be traded or would likely be the core of the team moving forward.

Robert and Cease are the most valuable assets on the roster.  Perhaps the only two really premium assets remaining.

 

Surely, Lynn, Giolito, Reynaldo (really team friendly extension possible, but premature…limited time to decide), Clevinger, Graveman, Bummer, Kelly would all be gone…Benintendi’s presence really makes zero sense in a rebuilding situation but 50/50 Hahn would have to keep him after he just signed for five long years.  Moncada salary dumped upon the highest bidder.  Same with Grandal, Alberto, Andrus.

 

What to do with Kopech if you’re not going to extend him?  He won’t be around in time for the next rebuild to gel.

What value does Jimenez realistically have if he can’t stay healthy even as a full time DH?   Two more big decisions with these two.

 

TA7 (depends on the seriousness of his injury and readiness of Colson), Kopech, Crochet, Hendriks (unless trade value returns in 2023), Colas, Vaughn are players you would expect to still be around for various reasons, Zavala/Perez, Romy, Sosa, etc.  Colson Montgomery could be a big league starter by late this year but likelier to be May, 2023, already missing April with the oblique).  Burger pretty much would have to take over third for Moncada, and Sheets would stick for DH/1B/PH (need offense from SOMEWHERE) despite both players being increasingly out of place in a speed/defense-oriented game.

Seems a decision on Dylan Cease (trade/extend) is really going to be the next domino to fall if things start to go south and attendance craters.  And it’s not like they can offer him the same deal Byron Buxton accepted…it would be for at least $125-140 million.  For a extreme velocity/stuff pitcher with TJ in his past.

Bleak bleak bleak…but hopefully Hahn isn’t allowed to make a single one of these critical decisions moving forward.

The rebuild is over. They are in a transition phase. They have too much money locked up in guys that either are bad or always hurt.

[DirtySox]

Good thread thanks.

[ChiSox59]

27 minutes ago, The CashMan said:

The rebuild is over. They are in a transition phase. They have too much money locked up in guys that either are bad or always hurt.

What players do they have significant $ locked into that are “bad”? Yoan is the only one you could make an argument for, and he isn’t “bad”. And it’s also over after 2024. 

Edited April 11, 2023 by ChiSox59

[Tnetennba]

[caulfield12]

32 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

I asked you the same question last week. Despite a very mediocre season last year, the Sox increased attendance by 300,000+ in 2022.  While will attendance crater this year if it increased last year despite TLR and a lot of injuries?  I think 2023 will see attendance up by over 500,000.

Umm....last year's attendance was based on the relative success of the 2021 team and playoff victory...well one memorable game.  There's always lag by a full year in terms of the boost in the guaranteed attendance derived from season ticket sales vs. walk up increases in a successful/winning season like 2021. 

Your 2.5 million vs. 1.45 to 1.6 million of conventional attendance wisdom???  We shall see. 

I don't think any Sox fan should bet more than $100 on besting 2 million anytime soon... 

Edited April 11, 2023 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

22 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

What players do they have significant $ locked into that are “bad”? Yoan is the only one, and he isn’t “bad”. And it’s also over after 2024. 

That's kind of the point.  They're losing so many players from the roster over the next 18-20 months with what minor league replacements? 

 

As of today, Moncada Grandal Kelly Lynn Giolito Benintendi Jimenez Hendriks would or might need money going back the other way to offload them from the roster with no return other than partial financial savings (or the unlikelihood of assuming full contract obligations like KW with Alex Rios.)

GRandal needs to prove he's healthy and offensively productive for at least these next two months at a miniumum.  It's a given he can't do much to stop an opponent's running game... which is becoming increasingly important. 

Count how many steals Christian Vasquez with the Twins surrenders this season vs.  Sox catchers. 

Edited April 11, 2023 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

26 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

What's your solution other than standing pat and doing nothing like Hahn will choose... other than some Titanic deck chair rearrangements with the bullpen??? 

Would love to hear anything creative or requiring the slightest amount of critical thinking that Hahn hasn't demonstrated at all since the Kimbrel acquisition at TDL 2021. 

Edited April 11, 2023 by caulfield12

[Tony]

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That's kind of the point.  They're losing so many players from the roster over the next 18-20 months with what minor league replacements? 

 

As of today, Moncada Grandal Kelly Lynn Giolito Benintendi Jimenez Hendriks would or might need money going back the other way to offload them from the roster with no return other than partial financial savings (or the unlikelihood of assuming full contract obligations like KW with Alex Rios.)

GRandal needs to prove he's healthy and offensively productive for at least these next two months at a miniumum.  It's a given he can't do much to stop an opponent's running game... which is becoming increasingly important. 

Count how many steals Christian Vasquez with the Twins surrenders this season vs.  Sox catchers. 

This absolutely is false for a number of the names you listed here. Total fiction. 

[Kyyle23]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

I predicted 15-18 looking at that Bataan Death March of an early schedule…and that was before losing three starting position players, two relievers basically imploded and Joe Kelly managed to get hurt running in from the bullpen.

Other than 1984, we don’t have many Sox franchise examples of poor starts turning out well in the end. 

(Well, at least until Jerry Dybzynski and Tito Landrum struck.)

 

Also, ok

[ScootsMcGoots]

The baseball gods after TA hurts himself be like: 

 

Edited April 11, 2023 by ScooterMcGuire

[Greg Hibbard]

49 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

What's your solution other than standing pat and doing nothing like Hahn will choose... other than some Titanic deck chair rearrangements with the bullpen??? 

Would love to hear anything creative or requiring the slightest amount of critical thinking that Hahn hasn't demonstrated at all since the Kimbrel acquisition at TDL 2021. 

My solution would be to wait until we hear about TA’s injury today, for one thing, and for a second thing, seeing how the team plays for the next three weeks before writing them off in a dissertation that is 67 moves ahead of itself. 

[palehose1]

TA with MCL sprain out 2-4 weeks

[Harry Chappas]

2-4 weeks is fine.  Every team has injuries and neither the Sox have sustained are season changing.  Last year Eloy and Anderson would have stayed on the roster and Seby would have somehow been at 1B with Vaughn in LF and Kelly would be day-today and Lopez would end up pitching three innings one day.

Silver lining is SS defense should be better, Sosa lights it up ending the Hanser experience....that's if Pedro plays Sosa.

[chitownsportsfan]

What if your mother and father had never met?

[Lip Man 1]

26 minutes ago, palehose1 said:

TA with MCL sprain out 2-4 weeks

Guessing then he has to go on a rehab assignment.

As far as the premise in this thread, should this come to pass the Sox will again be between a rock and a hard place.

I don't see how they could justify another 'rebuild' to a fan base already angry and frustrated. Many of those fans might just turn apathetic and not give a damn anymore.

Plus the fan base doesn't trust current folks in the front office to get it right anyway.

Now if JR appears and basically says he's fired the baseball side of the front office, Sox fans may be willing to give the team the benefit of the doubt. (But can anyone honestly see JR doing that?)

My guess is that if the Sox have any type of chance, Hahn empties out the farm in a desperate gamble to save things. As has been pointed out admitting the rebuild didn't work is akin to the front office saying they screwed up and their ego's won't permit that.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

This is the exact reason I was ok bringing back Andrus, even if he gets removed from a starring role.