Merkin with pretty honest assessment

[ChiSox59]

27 minutes ago, BigHurt3515 said:

Well that was the Cardinals 3rd game of the season. Who is to say if he was ready to go in January? He also pitched 5 games in spring training that year so obviously he was ready to go 15 or so months post surgery

Easy on the facts, Sir. 

[4uckOffCommieScum]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Lance Lynn had his surgery on November 10, 2015. He next pitched in a big league game on April 6, 2017 - nearly 17 months later.

Mid May would have Crochet pitching in the big leagues 13 months after his surgery.

Well that was just an example off the top of the head. If you look you will find lots of pitchers have success in their first season back from TJS

[35thstreetswarm]

59 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yeah, the Twins do look good.  I live in MN (have most my life) - all my good friends are Twins fans, and I actually know some folks in the org.  I watch the Twins a lot; pretty much whenever the Sox aren't playing and they are.  They do look good in the early going, but until last night, the offense hasn't been great.  They've been living on winning on good pitching against either bad teams (KC and Miami) and teams not playing good baseball (White Sox and Astros).  Truth be told, definitely expected them to go into the Bronx and get trounced, but anything but that happened last night.  We'll see how the next three go.

But the Twins are every bit as injury prone - if not more - than the Sox.  Buxton will get hurt.  Just a matter of when.  Correa's ankle obviously isn't well, and that's not even what has been bugging him.  Without those 2, the offense is pretty meh.  I mean, look at those lineups they were sporting against the Sox, and now Farmer is down at least a month.  But the FO did a great job in adding depth players that have already been needed quite a bit - much better than the Sox.

But the Twins are still mostly the same team last year that was even worse than the Sox.  Lopez looks legit, but let's not act like they didn't give up a big piece from their MLB club to get him.  I am a Joe Ryan fan to the extent I can be for a Twin - still cannot believe the beloved Rays FO gave him up for 2 months of 40 YO Nelson Cruz.  But their rotation has lots of injury question marks - like most do.  Maeda is already hurting, he is getting his start this weekend skipped.  BUt Twins do have some arms they can rely on - Winder, SWR, Ober, Varland.  Definitely more upper minors SP than the Sox.  

I think it is totally fair to call teh Twins the favorite in ALC at this point.  An early 4 game lead is impressive.  But this isn't a team that is going to run away with the division, IMO. 

 

It's weird how many place zero trust in the Sox, but trust a team that has been worse than the Sox the last two years implicitly.  (Not directed at you btw). 

[Snopek]

48 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

It's weird how many place zero trust in the Sox, but trust a team that has been worse than the Sox the last two years implicitly.  (Not directed at you btw). 

The way I see it, both teams have major injury risks, but one of those teams is much better equipped to deal with the injuries than the other. I'd also say there are more guys with the arrow pointing up on the Twins than on the Sox.

Now, I don't think the gap between the two teams is so large that the Sox winning the ALC would shock me. But at this point, sure, I have more faith in the Twins having a successful season than the Sox.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

It's weird how many place zero trust in the Sox, but trust a team that has been worse than the Sox the last two years implicitly.  (Not directed at you btw). 

Look where the Twins went from 2016 to 17.

Then 3/4 playoff teams.  101-61 mixed in there.

Then two rebuilding the farm system/reloading years (including signing Buxton/Correa)…with the Twins leading the division for well more than half of 2022.

 

Does anyone believe a White Sox teardown in 2023 is going to lead to a team competing for first for 4 1/2 months in 2025 when their entire pitching staff will have to be replaced, essentially?

[Dick Allen]

1 hour ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

Well that was just an example off the top of the head. If you look you will find lots of pitchers have success in their first season back from TJS

Yes, but the vast majority had several more months before playing MLB than Crochet will have. The pitchers who did not tended to see their performance slip from previous levels. One guy who was similar timeline was Adam Wainright. He still was good when he came back but his ERA was 1.50 higher than before. The next season it dropped a run. 

[4uckOffCommieScum]

In Tommy John’s return from his own surgery he made 31 starts with a 3.09 ERA, and that was some 45 years ago

[Dick Allen]

5 minutes ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

In Tommy John’s return from his own surgery he made 31 starts with a 3.09 ERA, and that was some 45 years ago

Yes he did, but he had more than 13 months recovery time.  

Odds are Crochet will be a really decent pitcher at some point. I just don't think you can bank on it this season.

Edited April 14, 2023 by Dick Allen

[4uckOffCommieScum]

8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Clevinger just the most recent example of not being ready until Year 2... 

That was clev’s second TJS, in which the success rates are vastly lower. I would be willing to bet he has less than 250 major league innings left. After first TJS, the majority come back as strong or stronger, since they are no longer pitching with a fucked UCL

[4uckOffCommieScum]

17 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Yes he did, but he had more than 13 months recovery time.  

Odds are Crochet will be a really decent pitcher at some point. I just don't think you can bank on it this season.

There have been developments in TJS in recent years that reduce recovery time. By adding a graft to the tendon in order to provide blood flow to it, which did not previously occur. Without blood flow it would take up to six months to heal, the next year would be rehab. With blood flow it can now heal within weeks, so recovery time has gone from 18-24 months to 12 to 18, with same 12 month rehab period.

Edited April 14, 2023 by FourEyesShottenhoffer

[4uckOffCommieScum]

https://www.mlb.com/news/ian-anderson-braves-tommy-john-surgery
 

As you can see here with recently announced Ian Anderson surgery, 12-18 months is the new recovery timeframe.

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Look where the Twins went from 2016 to 17.

Then 3/4 playoff teams.  101-61 mixed in there.

Then two rebuilding the farm system/reloading years (including signing Buxton/Correa)…with the Twins leading the division for well more than half of 2022.

 

Does anyone believe a White Sox teardown in 2023 is going to lead to a team competing for first for 4 1/2 months in 2025 when their entire pitching staff will have to be replaced, essentially?

As long as ownership remains the same, the front office will remain the same which translates to more incompetence in 2025.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

That was clev’s second TJS, in which the success rates are vastly lower. I would be willing to bet he has less than 250 major league innings left. After first TJS, the majority come back as strong or stronger, since they are no longer pitching with a fucked UCL

Kopech? 

[FloydBannister1983]

12 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yeah, I don't agree that an April deficit in the standings requires unachievable baseball to get back into the race.  Especially when the Sox have already played several of their toughest series in April.  The Sox toughest scheduling month is April.  And the Twins and Guardians still aren't very good.

I do definitely agree that the Sox have played some terrible baseball 13 games in, and the injuries so far are super discouraging. That said, Eloy and Moncada should both be back this weekend.  TA should be back in 2 weeks.  Not exactly crippling injuries, yet.  But yes, I definitely agree that this season will be very tough for the Sox to compete if those 3 + Robert miss ~half the season like they did in 2022.  Imagine everyone agrees on that. 

The Twins also appear to have their toughest part of their schedule in April.

[caulfield12]

Last year the Twins ran out of gas, their rotation imploded…too many injuries and a shaky pen.

Much better rotation, speed and defense this year.  Getting younger as well, shedding most of their vets for hungrier young players like Gordon, Miranda, Larnach, etc.

And Duran will cover up a lot of mistakes when all is said and done at the back end.

[FloydBannister1983]

23 hours ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

It's weird how many place zero trust in the Sox, but trust a team that has been worse than the Sox the last two years implicitly.  (Not directed at you btw). 

I mean in the Reinsdorf era the Twins have won two Workd Series and been to the postseason twice as many times, the last two years not withstanding.  I’d say the zero trust has been earned.

[caulfield12]

“It's really dangerous to take broad conclusions from one game or three games at any stretch of the year, whether it’s April -- when things tend to get magnified -- or even mid-June,” Hahn said. “Any three-game stretch -- frankly, any 13-game stretch -- is not necessarily indicative of the other 149 games.

…..

 

“I don’t want to say we just beat ourselves, but it feels like every game we kind of feel like we beat ourselves,” White Sox starter Mike Clevinger said. “We could have a lot of wins right now. 

“So it’s finding our identity, which we’re in the process of, and trying to mold those pieces together. Seems like one day one thing is doing well, and something is off. Sometimes it takes a little time with new faces and a new clubhouse. It takes time.”

 

White Sox have yet to prove themselves: 'We could have a lot of wins'

April 15th, 2023.  Scott Merkin mlb.com

Edited April 15, 2023 by caulfield12

[ChiSox59]

41 minutes ago, FloydBannister1983 said:

I mean in the Reinsdorf era the Twins have won two Workd Series and been to the postseason twice as many times, the last two years not withstanding.  I’d say the zero trust has been earned.

The Twins have not win a single playoff game in over 20 years. Not a series, a single game. It’s not exactly an organization to fawn over. 

[caulfield12]

Franchise Overview

Seasons in Minneapolis

1961-2023

63	14	2
Seasons	Made Playoffs	Championships

If you go by 2001-2010 and the last five years…more often than not they kicked our butts other than 2008.

2020 comeback the final 2-3 weeks?   

We only have 2005, 2008 and 2021 over them since the 1987 and 1991 WS titles.  Well, I guess we were better in 2012 but collapsed at the end.  Okay, four times the Sox prevailed.

Edited April 15, 2023 by caulfield12

[FloydBannister1983]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

The Twins have not win a single playoff game in over 20 years. Not a series, a single game. It’s not exactly an organization to fawn over. 

Nobody’s fawning, just saying one organization is better run than the other.

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Franchise Overview

Seasons in Minneapolis

1961-2023

63	14	2
Seasons	Made Playoffs	Championships

If you go by 2001-2010 and the last five years…more often than not they kicked our butts other than 2008.

2020 comeback the final 2-3 weeks?   

We only have 2005, 2008 and 2021 over them since the 1987 and 1991 WS titles.  Well, I guess we were better in 2012 but collapsed at the end.  Okay, four times the Sox prevailed.

If you go by the same time frame they have twice as many playoff appearances and twice as many championships as the Sox, those are what the numbers say.

[35thstreetswarm]

5 hours ago, FloydBannister1983 said:

I mean in the Reinsdorf era the Twins have won two Workd Series and been to the postseason twice as many times, the last two years not withstanding.  I’d say the zero trust has been earned.

Not super relevant to the likelihood of this particular Twins team finishing ahead of this Sox team.  And somehow I doubt it’s a World Series from before most posters were born that is decisive to the weird unconditional forgiveness of a team whose recent performances would have the same posters jumping off a bridge had they been wearing black and gray instead of red and blue.

Edited April 15, 2023 by 35thstreetswarm

[caulfield12]

16 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Not super relevant to the likelihood of this particular Twins team finishing ahead of this Sox team.  And somehow I doubt it’s a World Series from before most posters were born that is decisive to the weird unconditional forgiveness of a team whose recent performances would have the same posters jumping off a bridge had they been wearing black and gray instead of red and blue.

Two titles largely due to random home field advantage. 

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Two titles largely due to random home field advantage. 

But you still have to take advantage of that factor don't you? And to their credit they did.

[FloydBannister1983]

2 hours ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Not super relevant to the likelihood of this particular Twins team finishing ahead of this Sox team.  And somehow I doubt it’s a World Series from before most posters were born that is decisive to the weird unconditional forgiveness of a team whose recent performances would have the same posters jumping off a bridge had they been wearing black and gray instead of red and blue.

Ofc the topic was organizational trust and not who will finish ahead of who in this particular year.