2024 - MLB Draft Thread

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, joejoesox said:

Is the cost a big deal due to the penalties associated with going over your allotment? 

Sox will go to 5%, and not a penny more.

[DirtySox]

4 minutes ago, joejoesox said:

Is the cost a big deal due to the penalties associated with going over your allotment? 

Cost is a big deal because it gives you flexibility in how you spend your allotment. Save a million on your 1st round pick? Maybe you can now afford to push a better player down the board to spend that savings on with a later pick.

[joejoesox]

the fact that Cleveland gets over 18 million to spend on this draft is 100% straight up bullshit

[DirtySox]

BA draft roundtable coming up with Keith Law and Shooter Hunt. Should be a fun listen.

 

[DirtySox]

45 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

BA draft roundtable coming up with Keith Law and Shooter Hunt. Should be a fun listen.

 

Some cliff notes from this as I watch/listen.

- Keith reiterates how bad of a draft class this is. Especially compared to last year's. Carlos says it's the worst he's covered.

- Law really likes Condon. Comps him to Kris Bryant.

- Carlos says BA would have Cags ranked lower then the industry due to the chase rate. Notes he would be a 3rd round talent as a pitcher. Says the defensive profile is polarizing.

- Law says Cags power is unmatched in this class and that he should abandon pitching entirely. Says he would try him in RF with the 80 arm, and if it doesn't work move him back to 1B. Also notes the approach really needs to change on the chase rate.

- Law has Burns/Smith neck and neck with Smith lower due to the previous TJ surgery.

- Law is the high guy on Braden Montgomery. Carlos is worried about the contact skills. Thinks teams might abandon the switch hitting.

- They all agree that after the top 10, the first round is going to be chaos due to the fall off in talent.

- Someone asks why Kurtz has been falling. Carlos gets into how risky the 1B profile is. Mentions Jacob Berry, Andrew Vaughn etc.

- Keith Law loves Ben Hess. Thinks he should be a 1st rounder. Surprised he's not ranked higher by others.

- They all think Brecht will go in the first round. The stuff is ridiculous but the walk rate is still super scary. Probably a late 1st round guy. They mention the Dodgers picking him and having him fixed up in a hurry. (of course)

- Asked about first player to the majors from the class. Mentions Kurtz, Yesavage, Chase Burns, Hagen Smith, Tibbs.

- On comps: Bryce Rainer = Corey Seager. Konnor Griffin = Jo Adell. Bryce Rainer = Brice Turang. They all reiterate that they hate comps though.

Edited July 10 by DirtySox

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

2 hours ago, DirtySox said:

Some cliff notes from this as I watch/listen.

- Keith reiterates how bad of a draft class this is. Especially compared to last year's. Carlos says it's the worst he's covered.

- Law really likes Condon. Comps him to Kris Bryant.

- Carlos says BA would have Cags ranked lower then the industry due to the chase rate. Notes he would be a 3rd round talent as a pitcher. Says the defensive profile is polarizing.

- Law says Cags power is unmatched in this class and that he should abandon pitching entirely. Says he would try him in RF with the 80 arm, and if it doesn't work move him back to 1B. Also notes the approach really needs to change on the chase rate.

- Law has Burns/Smith neck and neck with Smith lower due to the previous TJ surgery.

- Law is the high guy on Braden Montgomery. Carlos is worried about the contact skills. Thinks teams might abandon the switch hitting.

- They all agree that after the top 10, the first round is going to be chaos due to the fall off in talent.

- Someone asks why Kurtz has been falling. Carlos gets into how risky the 1B profile is. Mentions Jacob Berry, Andrew Vaughn etc.

- Keith Law loves Ben Hess. Thinks he should be a 1st rounder. Surprised he's not ranked higher by others.

- They all think Brecht will go in the first round. The stuff is ridiculous but the walk rate is still super scary. Probably a late 1st round guy. They mention the Dodgers picking him and having him fixed up in a hurry. (of course)

- Asked about first player to the majors from the class. Mentions Kurtz, Yesavage, Chase Burns, Hagen Smith, Tibbs.

- On comps: Bryce Rainer = Corey Seager. Konnor Griffin = Jo Adell. Bryce Rainer = Brice Turang. They all reiterate that they hate comps though.

more Cags swing and miss concerns.. yikes.. hard hard hard pass

[caulfield12]

7 hours ago, DirtySox said:

Some cliff notes from this as I watch/listen.

- Keith reiterates how bad of a draft class this is. Especially compared to last year's. Carlos says it's the worst he's covered.

- Law really likes Condon. Comps him to Kris Bryant.

- Carlos says BA would have Cags ranked lower then the industry due to the chase rate. Notes he would be a 3rd round talent as a pitcher. Says the defensive profile is polarizing.

- Law says Cags power is unmatched in this class and that he should abandon pitching entirely. Says he would try him in RF with the 80 arm, and if it doesn't work move him back to 1B. Also notes the approach really needs to change on the chase rate.

- Law has Burns/Smith neck and neck with Smith lower due to the previous TJ surgery.

- Law is the high guy on Braden Montgomery. Carlos is worried about the contact skills. Thinks teams might abandon the switch hitting.

- They all agree that after the top 10, the first round is going to be chaos due to the fall off in talent.

- Someone asks why Kurtz has been falling. Carlos gets into how risky the 1B profile is. Mentions Jacob Berry, Andrew Vaughn etc.

- Keith Law loves Ben Hess. Thinks he should be a 1st rounder. Surprised he's not ranked higher by others.

- They all think Brecht will go in the first round. The stuff is ridiculous but the walk rate is still super scary. Probably a late 1st round guy. They mention the Dodgers picking him and having him fixed up in a hurry. (of course)

- Asked about first player to the majors from the class. Mentions Kurtz, Yesavage, Chase Burns, Hagen Smith, Tibbs.

- On comps: Bryce Rainer = Corey Seager. Konnor Griffin = Jo Adell. Bryce Rainer = Brice Turang. They all reiterate that they hate comps though.

Jo Adell and Lewis Brinson...forget developing a Griffin. 

Only worked once with Tim Anderson...that kind of off the charts teenage toolsiness like Griff.

Maybe Wolkow minus the speed...certainly he isn't a middle infielder.

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

more Cags swing and miss concerns.. yikes.. hard hard hard pass

So now back to Wetherholt?

At least his bat is already right there.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

41 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

So now back to Wetherholt?

At least his bat is already right there.

Im still Griffin since we don’t want Smith

[hi8is]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

So now back to Wetherholt?

At least his bat is already right there.

Wetherholt has a high likelihood to be gone by 5 and I want nothing to do with his hammy and our conditioning staff.

[hi8is]

2 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Im still Griffin since we don’t want Smith

I don’t think Smith is off the table in our war room.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Keith Law mock draft today has Sox taking Caglianone. Says he’s option A and Griffin is next. We’d heard similar on this board. 

[joejoesox]

I'm all in on Konnor 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

7 hours ago, hi8is said:

I don’t think Smith is off the table in our war room.

According to the insiders (whom i trust), we have no interest in a SP at 5.

[Quin]

After listening to Joe Doyle on CHGO, he gushed about Cags' ability to expand the zone and avoid striking out (9% K-rate).

Is this expected to explode in the majors? Obviously quality of competition goes up, but he basically cut his strikeouts in half this year while tripling his walks. That indicates that he got a lot choosier?

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

17 minutes ago, Quin said:

After listening to Joe Doyle on CHGO, he gushed about Cags' ability to expand the zone and avoid striking out (9% K-rate).

Is this expected to explode in the majors? Obviously quality of competition goes up, but he basically cut his strikeouts in half this year while tripling his walks. That indicates that he got a lot choosier?

I just remember someone (Law?) saying he swings at like 40% of pitches outside of the zone.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I've always liked Honeycutt, could he be a 2nd round type guy given his weaker hit tool or no chance?

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Keith Law mock draft today has Sox taking Caglianone. Says he’s option A and Griffin is next. We’d heard similar on this board. 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5629426/2024/07/11/mlb-mock-draft-2024-prospects-travis-bazzana/?campaign=5888993&source=dailyemail&userId=6062851

[joejoesox]

49 minutes ago, Quin said:

After listening to Joe Doyle on CHGO, he gushed about Cags' ability to expand the zone and avoid striking out (9% K-rate).

Is this expected to explode in the majors? Obviously quality of competition goes up, but he basically cut his strikeouts in half this year while tripling his walks. That indicates that he got a lot choosier?

his O-swing% is insane so unlikely he won't struggle lol

edited phrasing 

Edited July 11 by joejoesox

[southsider2k5]

48 minutes ago, Quin said:

After listening to Joe Doyle on CHGO, he gushed about Cags' ability to expand the zone and avoid striking out (9% K-rate).

Is this expected to explode in the majors? Obviously quality of competition goes up, but he basically cut his strikeouts in half this year while tripling his walks. That indicates that he got a lot choosier?

Well we know not playing defense and high strikeout rate aren't deal breakers, and neither is spending an entire draft slot on a 1B in the top 5, so really this is the Soxist of picks.

[DirtySox]

3 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Keith Law mock draft today has Sox taking Caglianone. Says he’s option A and Griffin is next. We’d heard similar on this board. 

Interesting. Looks like he has them passing on Wetherholt in that mock. No longer an option? Or do they just have Jac higher you think?

Edited July 11 by DirtySox

[DirtySox]

In BA's draft podcast today they do a preview for all 30 teams. There is a sizable section at the start where they just talk about Jac Caglianone in general. It's very insightful. Paraphrased below. This is conversation between Carlos, Ben, and Peter. It all started with the question "Do you get a sense that Cags is a polarizing player?"

Quote

Carlos:

I mentioned this the other day. The gap in perceived talent between Jac for BA staffers and the industry is bigger than anyone else in the top 10. I think all of us collectively are much more skeptical of Jac's hitting ability in pro ball. Despite this, I think he's much more likely to go top 5 then guys like Kurtz or the high school hitters. Lots of teams had heavy hitters in to see him at the end of the year when he looked really good in the CWS. Jac has the wow factor and the power tool that the decision makers really like to see and are impressed by. He just looks like a big leaguer. He has the power to lead the league in home runs. He's going to go higher than any one of us would take him. The two way factor doesn't add much, if any value because teams are going to drop it. Teams are buying into the power upside with the potential for being a home run leader.

Jack:

I think with Jac you need to peel back the layers a bit. I don't know if we will see a player like him ever again. He's not going to be a two way guy. They need to pick one path, and it's not going to be on the mound. Power is unmatched but I'm skeptical of the hit tool. I know the chase rate and expansion of the strike zone took a step forward this year, but I'm on the lower end of where his hit tool is at. My confidence in it is not all that high. I can't get past the lack of hit tool.

Carlos/Ben:

The power is top of the scale. He's not missing a lot of pitches in the strike zone. His in zone contact rate is great, but the big hangup is in the chase rate. He has a 38% chase rate this season. When you compare it to the other top college bats it's night and day. Condon is at 23%. Both Bazzana and Wetherholt are down to 13%. Jac's chase rate is not only high relative to the top college guys, but it's super high relative to the entire college class. It's extremely agressive. I just don't know how easy that is to fix at the next level. He's a player that is very tricky to evaluate.

I was slightly disappointed that they didn't talk about his defensive chops. Maybe that's telling though? I'm much more into Jac if he can be an average RF.

Edited July 11 by DirtySox

[Y2Jimmy0]

1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I've always liked Honeycutt, could he be a 2nd round type guy given his weaker hit tool or no chance?

Man I’d be scared to death. So many tools but nobody strikes out that often in college and improves it in the pros 

59 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Interesting. Looks like he has them passing on Wetherholt in that mock. No longer an option? Or do they just have Jac higher you think?

I think Cags is rated higher for them. @Harold's Leg Lifthas been saying it’s Cags if he’s in the board. I have no reason to doubt him. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Man I’d be scared to death. So many tools but nobody strikes out that often in college and improves it in the pros 

I think Cags is rated higher for them. @Harold's Leg Lifthas been saying it’s Cags if he’s in the board. I have no reason to doubt him. 

In regard to Honeycutt, it looks like he weirdly got it under control in 2023 and then 2024 it blew up again. 

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

In BA's draft podcast today they do a preview for all 30 teams. There is a sizable section at the start where they just talk about Jac Caglianone in general. It's very insightful. Paraphrased below. This is conversation between Carlos, Ben, and Peter. It all started with the question "Do you get a sense that Cags is a polarizing player?"

I was slightly disappointed that they didn't talk about his defensive chops. Maybe that's telling though? I'm much more into Jac if he can be an average RF.

That sounds so much like a guy the Sox have historically struggled to develop.