Will the Sox do the right thing when Eloy comes back and move Yoan to 2B?

[baseball_gal_aly]

Idk why we're talking about Burger replacing Moncada instead of Vaughn. Moncada is still a plus fWAR player even when not hitting. Vaughn is a glorified DH with no power and is replacement level for his career. 

Moncada is entrenched at 3B until the end of next season so just roll with it. Maybe they can get some value for him as a rental at the 2024 TDL if they eat some money. 

Edited May 19, 2023 by baseballgalaly

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

The main point is they need a 3B for the next five years…it’s obviously not going to be Yoan Moncada.

Any trade value is going to be mostly about simply offloading as much of his future salary as possible.

Moncada would have offers, perhaps you send a portion of cash.

Benintendi has the 17th worst contract value across The MLB per Trade Values. Hahn isn’t satisfied unless he makes things worse each and every year.

1. Nationals Strasburg ($129.7M)
2. Angels Rendon ($124.3M)
3. Yankees Stanton ($101.7M)
4. Rockies Bryant ($100.1M)
5. Brewers Yelich ($90.4M)
6. Padres Machado ($63.3M)
7. Mariners Ray ($49.2M)
8. Blue Jays Berrios ($41.1M)
9. Nationals Corbin ($40.7M)
10. Phillies Castellanos ($38.1M)
11. Red Sox Story ($35.2M)
12. Royals Perez ($34.6M)
13. Atlanta Ozuna ($33.2M)
14. Tigers Baez ($31.8M)
15. Red Sox Devers ($27.3M)
16. Tigers Cabrera ($26.6M)
17. White Sox Benintendi ($26.2M)
18. Marlins Garcia ($26.0M)
19. Reds Votto ($25.9M)
20. Yankees Hicks ($24.5M)

[Hamhock]

2 hours ago, JoeC said:

My point isn’t that Moncada is useless or worthless (quite the opposite). My point is that we have a surplus of 3Bmen. Given the options, we can use one to fill a huge gap in other positions without creating one in his place at 3B.

Totally understood - my comment was general in its musing, not pointed towards you.

[The Kids Can Play]

57 minutes ago, baseballgalaly said:

Idk why we're talking about Burger replacing Moncada instead of Vaughn. Moncada is still a plus fWAR player even when not hitting. Vaughn is a glorified DH with no power and is replacement level for his career. 

Moncada is entrenched at 3B until the end of next season so just roll with it. Maybe they can get some value for him as a rental at the 2024 TDL if they eat some money. 

Why would we wait until the 2024 TDL to trade Moncada? The Sox are not going anywhere this year and realistically not making the playoffs. Let's trade Moncada now at the 2023 TDL. The fact is, if Moncada stays healthy until the 2023 TDL and keeps producing solid numbers, be rest assured there will be a few teams wanting that last piece, to go for the WS title and give the Sox some quality prospects in return. 

There is one huge risky problem if the Sox don't move Moncada at the 2023 TDL, especially if he is playing healthy and producing great numbers at the deadline. That potential nightmare would be now you are stuck with him and in 2024 his salary goes from 17 million to 24 million. If hypothetically Moncada would be slumping or injured a lot in 2024 like previous years, your trade value at the 2024 TDL will be significantly worse, versus trading him at the 2023 TDL with a potential healthy Moncada producing good numbers. There won't be too many teams wanting an injured slumping player making 24 million at the 2024 trade deadline.

That's why you trade him now if he is healthy and producing good numbers by the 2023 TDL.

[baseball_gal_aly]

3 minutes ago, The Kids Can Play said:

Why would we wait until the 2024 TDL to trade Moncada? The Sox are not going anywhere this year and realistically not making the playoffs. Let's trade Moncada now at the 2023 TDL. The fact is, if Moncada stays healthy until the 2023 TDL and keeps producing solid numbers, be rest assured there will be a few teams wanting that last piece, to go for the WS title and give the Sox some quality prospects in return. 

There is one huge risky problem if the Sox don't move Moncada at the 2023 TDL, especially if he is playing healthy and producing great numbers at the deadline. That potential nightmare would be now you are stuck with him and in 2024 his salary goes from 17 million to 24 million. If hypothetically Moncada would be slumping or injured a lot in 2024 like previous years, your trade value at the 2024 TDL will be significantly worse, versus trading him at the 2023 TDL with a potential healthy Moncada producing good numbers. There won't be too many teams wanting an injured slumping player making 24 million at the 2024 trade deadline.

That's why you trade him now if he is healthy and producing good numbers by the 2023 TDL.

I think it will be hard to trade him with his salary next year until he's a rental. 

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Moncada would have offers, perhaps you send a portion of cash.

Benintendi has the 17th worst contract value across The MLB per Trade Values. Hahn isn’t satisfied unless he makes things worse each and every year.

1. Nationals Strasburg ($129.7M)
2. Angels Rendon ($124.3M)
3. Yankees Stanton ($101.7M)
4. Rockies Bryant ($100.1M)
5. Brewers Yelich ($90.4M)
6. Padres Machado ($63.3M)
7. Mariners Ray ($49.2M)
8. Blue Jays Berrios ($41.1M)
9. Nationals Corbin ($40.7M)
10. Phillies Castellanos ($38.1M)
11. Red Sox Story ($35.2M)
12. Royals Perez ($34.6M)
13. Atlanta Ozuna ($33.2M)
14. Tigers Baez ($31.8M)
15. Red Sox Devers ($27.3M)
16. Tigers Cabrera ($26.6M)
17. White Sox Benintendi ($26.2M)
18. Marlins Garcia ($26.0M)
19. Reds Votto ($25.9M)
20. Yankees Hicks ($24.5M)

Probably a little too early to declare Machado finished... unless you just throw out his entire career, especially 2022, up until now. 

Based only on 2023, sure. 

 

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, baseballgalaly said:

I think it will be hard to trade him with his salary next year until he's a rental. 

$15-18 million doesn't exactly sound like an affordable rental when you're four years removed from his last really good season offensively...that was partially built upon beating up the worst AL Central pitching.  That advantage for Yoan no longer exists. 

[South Side Hit Men]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Probably a little too early to declare Machado finished... unless you just throw out his entire career, especially 2022, up until now. 

Based only on 2023, sure. 

This list represents estimates of a far generous expected future value vs. remaining contract payments.

The Padres vastly overpaid. The only question is will it be by $50M, $150M, $200M, $250M or $300M.

Machado is in his Age 30 season, and will be paid the following:

• $17.1M 2023 (30), 2024 (31) & 2025 (32)
• $25.1M 2026 (33)
• $39.1M 2027 (34), 2028 (35), 2029 (36), 2030 (37), 2031 (38), 2032 (39), 2033 (40)

 

[baseball_gal_aly]

28 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

$15-18 million doesn't exactly sound like an affordable rental when you're four years removed from his last really good season offensively...that was partially built upon beating up the worst AL Central pitching.  That advantage for Yoan no longer exists. 

Only if they pick up most of the remainder of the deal, then they MIGHT be able to get something for him. 

[Quin]

This thread is only one mention of Iron Man Joe Crede away from a bingo.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Quin said:

This thread is only one mention of Iron Man Joe Crede away from a bingo.

Is it better to provide 4-5 really strong seasons and a WS or year after year of nagging injuries? 

Comparing a debilitating back surgery requiring life altering spinal fusion surgery versus never hitting your peak while collecting $24-25 million per year?  The predictable decline over the last two+ seasons of Grandal's constant injuries?  Jimenez constantly on the IL? 

Joe Crede will always to be remembered fondly and always have it everything he had for the good of the team.  He more often that not played on winning teams as well. 

Ultimately, the core members of the rebuild will continue to be associated with unfufilled promise and questions about their willingness to put team over self. 

 

 

And at least Crede (and Uribe) could drive the runner in from third base and less than two outs on a consistent basis.  These last two years of Sox teams are almost allergic to driving in RISP. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

12 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Moncada would have offers, perhaps you send a portion of cash.

Benintendi has the 17th worst contract value across The MLB per Trade Values. Hahn isn’t satisfied unless he makes things worse each and every year.

1. Nationals Strasburg ($129.7M)
2. Angels Rendon ($124.3M)
3. Yankees Stanton ($101.7M)
4. Rockies Bryant ($100.1M)
5. Brewers Yelich ($90.4M)
6. Padres Machado ($63.3M)
7. Mariners Ray ($49.2M)
8. Blue Jays Berrios ($41.1M)
9. Nationals Corbin ($40.7M)
10. Phillies Castellanos ($38.1M)
11. Red Sox Story ($35.2M)
12. Royals Perez ($34.6M)
13. Atlanta Ozuna ($33.2M)
14. Tigers Baez ($31.8M)
15. Red Sox Devers ($27.3M)
16. Tigers Cabrera ($26.6M)
17. White Sox Benintendi ($26.2M)
18. Marlins Garcia ($26.0M)
19. Reds Votto ($25.9M)
20. Yankees Hicks ($24.5M)

I don't see how contract value can be determined until the contract is up and you have the results the player posted during that contract. They say they keep that list updated so Benintendi being 17th in the 1st 2 months of a 5 year contract doesn't seem that bad. It might be accurate currently if it's a list of guys still playing or not officially retired like Strasburg because of injury but seems very unfair to players who just started playing under their current contract.

[South Side Hit Men]

15 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I don't see how contract value can be determined until the contract is up and you have the results the player posted during that contract. They say they keep that list updated so Benintendi being 17th in the 1st 2 months of a 5 year contract doesn't seem that bad. It might be accurate currently if it's a list of guys still playing or not officially retired like Strasburg because of injury but seems very unfair to players who just started playing under their current contract.

Benintendi has a substantial track record, and you can find projections a few years out at Baseball Prospectus (paid) or fangraphs (free). ZIPS/Fangraphs estimates 3.0 fWAR average this and next year, and a 1/2 point drop.

I see him more as a 1.5-2.0 fWAR/year player over the life of the deal if he stays healthy. Houston was the only other team with reported interest, at the 4/$54 range, and Hahn paid $21M more, consistent with the Keuchel and Grandal signings.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

15 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Benintendi has a substantial track record, and you can find projections a few years out at Baseball Prospectus (paid) or fangraphs (free). ZIPS/Fangraphs estimates 3.0 fWAR average this and next year, and a 1/2 point drop.

I see him more as a 1.5-2.0 fWAR/year player over the life of the deal if he stays healthy. Houston was the only other team with reported interest, at the 4/$54 range, and Hahn paid $21M more, consistent with the Keuchel and Grandal signings.

I don't think anyone can expect very many long term contracts that reach into a player's mid to late 30's to produce high value. You always pay for past performance. I know it's bad that the Sox can never sign great players to long term contracts but there will be many more players added to that list if they get injured and PROJECTED value becomes even more worthless. Just look at all the great or once great players ahead of Benintendi on that list. It's the price you pay for excellence.

Dealing with middling FA increases the odds of a bad contract but it also limits your losses.

Regretting the signings of Grandal,Keuchel or Benintendi with projected results is folly. Grandal is 65th on that list and he only has a few more months to go on his contract so most of the results are in. Basically it was a pretty good contract.

Where's Moncada ? He's 66th right behind Grandal .All we hear around here is that his contract sucks. Maybe he was projected to be better because of 2019 and they are slow to bring his projections down. You shouldn't be putting any faith into lists like this or using them as a basis of fact. They might give you some idea of bad contracts like Miggy's being near the end but the fluctuations on the end results are just too unpredictable because of future injuries and using projections.

Plus I have no idea how they are figuring out the 2020 short season. Did players contracts get prorated from the original contract and if so did Trade Values figure that in or just take the total value of the contract when it was signed ? WAR values were understandably lower because of the 60 game schedule in 2020 but what the players were paid, if prorated, then should be reflected with an adjusted total contract and not the original contract.

[CentralChamps21]

Moncada at 3B last night should have eliminated any talk of moving him.

Burger is a DH who can fill in at 3rd if Moncada needs a day off. The log jam is Burger/Eloy/Sheets/Colas at DH/RF.

[South Side Hit Men]

6 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I don't think anyone can expect very many long term contracts that reach into a player's mid to late 30's to produce high value. You always pay for past performance. I know it's bad that the Sox can never sign great players to long term contracts but there will be many more players added to that list if they get injured and PROJECTED value becomes even more worthless. Just look at all the great or once great players ahead of Benintendi on that list. It's the price you pay for excellence.

Dealing with middling FA increases the odds of a bad contract but it also limits your losses.

Regretting the signings of Grandal,Keuchel or Benintendi with projected results is folly. Grandal is 65th on that list and he only has a few more months to go on his contract so most of the results are in. Basically it was a pretty good contract.

Where's Moncada ? He's 66th right behind Grandal .All we hear around here is that his contract sucks. Maybe he was projected to be better because of 2019 and they are slow to bring his projections down. You shouldn't be putting any faith into lists like this or using them as a basis of fact. They might give you some idea of bad contracts like Miggy's being near the end but the fluctuations on the end results are just too unpredictable because of future injuries and using projections.

Plus I have no idea how they are figuring out the 2020 short season. Did players contracts get prorated from the original contract and if so did Trade Values figure that in or just take the total value of the contract when it was signed ? WAR values were understandably lower because of the 60 game schedule in 2020 but what the players were paid, if prorated, then should be reflected with an adjusted total contract and not the original contract.

This post makes no sense. The values are based on the remaining value of the contract as of now. It’s not a reflection of the past.

In terms of Grandal or Keuchel being “pretty good contracts”, the verdict for two are already in, the third is a foregone conclusion, including prorated 2020 contracts. This article actually deals with past FA contracts, and it’s ugly, far worse than the overpay inherent with FA deals in general.

Signings 50
Positive surplus value (SV) players 8
Salary paid to free agents $568,235,053
WAR value of those free agents $213,698,292
SV of free agents -$354,536,761

Would wager Benintendi falls in the bottom five when this listed is revisited in 2028. Hopefully Hahn and Benintendi are long gone before the deal is up.

[caulfield12]

49 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Moncada at 3B last night should have eliminated any talk of moving him.

Burger is a DH who can fill in at 3rd if Moncada needs a day off. The log jam is Burger/Eloy/Sheets/Colas at DH/RF.

A ball he juggled doesn't exactly prove anything, because the White Sox still need a 3B in 2025. 

Maybe Burger maybe Montgomery maybe Ramos or someone else...but that play matters more to teams looking to acquire him than anything related to the Sox. 

[The Kids Can Play]

21 hours ago, baseballgalaly said:

I think it will be hard to trade him with his salary next year until he's a rental. 

We all know Moncada is not probably on the long range plans for the Sox future. Plus while this team is losing and not making the playoffs, the best thing for the Sox is to get prospects on a trade for him to hopefully improve our 26th ranked farm system. The best time is now at TDL. He is making 17 million versus 24 million next year. As I said, if Moncada is playing healthy at the TDL and producing numbers like he is now, there will be several teams wanting Moncada. His salary could be justified if he produces.

Every year all the teams at the TDL in the hunt for the WS, go trade for those players they think will be the final pieces to the WS title. This year will be no exception.

It makes no sense to wait until his final year before becoming a UFA. The longer you wait to trade Moncada the chances of getting good prospects back will diminishes as he gets older. Keep in mind, if Moncada has always been prone to injures at this age, as well as when he was younger, what do you think it will like on his final year at 30 years old in 2025 and trying to trade him as a rental?

2023 - 17 million - 28 years old

2024 - 24 million - 29 years old

2025 - 25 million or Sox club option of buying him out at 5 million - 30 years old

2026 - UFA - 31 years old

We have to improve this roster. It's not capable of being a playoff WS contender. We need to build the farm system back to relevance. The quickest way is through trading away our assets. In this case we have Jake Burger ($720,000) to replace Moncada and we need the prospects back off the trade. 

[baseball_gal_aly]

$29M for next year is a hard sell even if he's producing. Let's say that he hits .290 with 16 HR. Is that worth $29M on a 1 year deal? 

[almagest]

I don’t know why any of you trust this front office to make quality trades for less than absolute slam dunk assets like they had in 2016. Even those trades didn’t work out all that great, otherwise we wouldn’t be talking about this. 
 

Until real baseball evaluators with an actual plan take this org over the best option is to let it all run out and see if they get lucky. Or more likely, just let it burn.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, almagest said:

I don’t know why any of you trust this front office to make quality trades for less than absolute slam dunk assets like they had in 2016. Even those trades didn’t work out all that great, otherwise we wouldn’t be talking about this. 
 

Until real baseball evaluators with an actual plan take this org over the best option is to let it all run out and see if they get lucky. Or more likely, just let it burn.

Great, we can wait for Benintendi's deal to die out in 2027... then really fix this thing. 

[almagest]

14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Great, we can wait for Benintendi's deal to die out in 2027... then really fix this thing. 

They're gonna do that anyway. Who is going to trade for him?

[South Side Hit Men]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Great, we can wait for Benintendi's deal to die out in 2027... then really fix this thing. 

In Right Field, number 1/4, Herve Villechaize.

 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

In Right Field, number 1/4, Herve Villechaize.

 

Eddie Gaedel has a nice OBP.

[South Side Hit Men]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Eddie Gaedel has a nice OBP.

Veeck had the sense to bat him once, not give him $75M.