Trading One Year Assets is Inevitable. Maybe even 2-yr

[SouthSideGeorgia]

With some assumptions (losing Giolito, not picking up Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly option)

Sox save potentially $43.525 million from ‘23 to ‘24. 

But increases in Sox players contracts are $29 million from ‘23 to ‘24. Chunk of that is Moncada and Benintendi contracts increases  

Therefore, a savings of only $14.525 million next year. 

And Sox still need to sign potentially 2 starters, catcher, 2b and bullpen arms next year. Maybe we stand pat at bullpen, catcher and 2b… but you still have to get two starters. 

The farm is devoid of starting pitching at the highest level maybe besides Davis Martin for next season. Then you have arbitration eligible players also that will make more money next year like Cease, Kopech and now Vaughn. ?

With our losing record, there is no way we don’t trade away assets. No way. There such a pending bloated payroll that the Sox have to get under control for a bad team. It’s inevitable.

No doubt we try trading away one year assets like Giolito, Middleton, Lopez, Grandal, Andrus, and Alberto. But only half may have any value. Based on where we stand and where we project next year, you also have to consider trading 2-yr assets like Anderson, Hendriks, Graveman, Clevinger, and Lynn. 
 

This is a pretty big crunch coming up and Sox need to free up payroll. It’s coming…

[Lip Man 1]

22 minutes ago, SouthSideGeorgia said:

With some assumptions (losing Giolito, not picking up Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly option)

Sox save potentially $43.525 million from ‘23 to ‘24. 

But increases in Sox players contracts are $29 million from ‘23 to ‘24. Chunk of that is Moncada and Benintendi contracts increases  

Therefore, a savings of only $14.525 million next year. 

And Sox still need to sign potentially 2 starters, catcher, 2b and bullpen arms next year. Maybe we stand pat at bullpen, catcher and 2b… but you still have to get two starters. 

The farm is devoid of starting pitching at the highest level maybe besides Davis Martin for next season. Then you have arbitration eligible players also that will make more money next year like Cease, Kopech and now Vaughn. ?

With our losing record, there is no way we don’t trade away assets. No way. There such a pending bloated payroll that the Sox have to get under control for a bad team. It’s inevitable.

No doubt we try trading away one year assets like Giolito, Middleton, Lopez, Grandal, Andrus, and Alberto. But only half may have any value. Based on where we stand and where we project next year, you also have to consider trading 2-yr assets like Anderson, Hendriks, Graveman, Clevinger, and Lynn. 
 

This is a pretty big crunch coming up and Sox need to free up payroll. It’s coming…

With a second "forearm soreness" issue for Martin since October (he hasn't pitched this year since April 11) you can't count on him for anything next year.

[Bob Sacamano]

For the situation they are in, that Benintendi deal is ugly.

[caulfield12]

Any team in baseball had multiple shots at Rooker for a BIT less than $75 million.....we spent the entire offseason discussing how last year in NY was misleading compared to his fWARs from 2019-2021.  To top it all off, coming off a seemingly debilitating hand injury the way it's sapped his XB power so obviously. 

[GreenSox]

13 hours ago, SouthSideGeorgia said:

 

Therefore, a savings of only $14.525 million next year. 

 

Don't forget Bummer, whom Rick Hahn has proactively awarded a $1.75 million raise for next season.
I would think that few object to trading 1/2 year players.  And I think Hahn will eventually do it.  But will he do the necessary research on other teams' minor league players, no easy feat when he's refused to build the infrastructure for that sort of thing; and  will he even prioritize getting the most young talent possible, or will he use the trading season as a vehicle to dump salary, if only for the last 2/3 months of the year.

[joejoesox]

I'm worried about Robert being surrounded by AAA players the next 3 years, sapping him of all his desire and drive to be at his best. and then the Sox trade him once he hits his 20m/year 2026 and 2027 seasons because he isn't performing at the level we expect, and don't get a very good return on him only to see him move on and be a beast

what a cluster f***, and the fans don't deserve this s%*#. 

[PolishPrince34]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kopech-turns-to-rubble/

 

Slider has been horrible this year. Has lost more than half his horizontal movement on the slider. One of the worst pitches being thrown in the MLB. Barely uses his curveball and changeup. If they can't figure this out another arm the Sox couldn't develop that most likely ends up in the bullpen. Right now a 1 pitch pitcher. Really disappointing the lack of progress Kopech has made.  

[SouthSideGeorgia]

Anderson +$1.5 million

Moncada +$7 million

Benintendi +$8.5 million

Robert +$3 million

Jimenez +$3.5 million

Bummer +$1.75 million

Hendriks +$666,666

equals about $25.92 million in increases before arbitration. 
 

add in arbitration increases maybe for Cease, Kopech, Vaughn, Lambert, Crochet and that $43.525 salary savings next year is mostly eaten up. And we’ll need 2 SP, a catcher, 2b and bullpen. 

Edited May 16, 2023 by SouthSideGeorgia

[T R U]

Its looking like its going to be an ugly future coming, but hey, outside of 2005 its been that way for over a hundred years anyways so whats a decade more?

[The Kids Can Play]

4 hours ago, joejoesox said:

I'm worried about Robert being surrounded by AAA players the next 3 years, sapping him of all his desire and drive to be at his best. and then the Sox trade him once he hits his 20m/year 2026 and 2027 seasons because he isn't performing at the level we expect, and don't get a very good return on him only to see him move on and be a beast

what a cluster f***, and the fans don't deserve this s%*#. 

The scary point here you bring up is a AAA team around Robert hurts him having weak hitters in front and behind him in the lineup. Robert still tends to lack that consistent plate discipline on the breaking balls outside the zone. The day the Sox get solid hitters in front and behind Robert, pitchers will not be able to pitch around him anymore like they can now. 

 

 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

You FOR SURE have to trade Anderson, Giolito and Henriks (assuming his value is fine) by this deadline.  

Edited May 16, 2023 by Squirmin' for Yermin

[Balta1701]

They'll be hanging out somewhere below .500 but maybe close the distance on the division slightly. Rick Hahn will insist "If we keep playing like this we'll be right there at the end (Rick Hahn, July 2015)." People will defend the decision saying no one would ever sell if they were only 7 games out of the wild card or whatever the number is. They will go into next offseason with $30 million to spend while having to fill 3 starter positions, replace 2 relievers, and having sub-replacement players at several positions. We'll watch the standard $4 million veterans be signed to fill all those positions and people will be super excited next March over all the experienced players they brought in.

[joejoesox]

Must watch video.

,

[joejoesox]

They need to re-sign TA to a long term deal imo, like right now. There's nothing for SS beyond CM and he's so far from being ready. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

5 minutes ago, joejoesox said:

They need to re-sign TA to a long term deal imo, like right now. There's nothing for SS beyond CM and he's so far from being ready. 

I can't wait for him to be traded.

[caulfield12]

42 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

They'll be hanging out somewhere below .500 but maybe close the distance on the division slightly. Rick Hahn will insist "If we keep playing like this we'll be right there at the end (Rick Hahn, July 2015)." People will defend the decision saying no one would ever sell if they were only 7 games out of the wild card or whatever the number is. They will go into next offseason with $30 million to spend while having to fill 3 starter positions, replace 2 relievers, and having sub-replacement players at several positions. We'll watch the standard $4 million veterans be signed to fill all those positions and people will be super excited next March over all the experienced players they brought in.

After watching this since Jeff Keppinger... I don't think anyone will be fooled by that last sentencesentence any longer. 

Of course, he will remind everyone about McCann Rodon and finally Cueto and Andrus last year... pretty much his lone bargain basement successes. 

Or how Santos Middleton Kelly Crochet and Hendriks will turn all those blown leads and close late games into victories all of a sudden.  Graveman,  too. 

And that Eloy will be back soon,  etc. 

 

Biggest fear now is rushing both Hendriks and Crochet back so quickly and one or both getting hurt again. 

There shouldn't be any rush based on the 2023 standings to really push either guy. 

We got away with doing it to Sale his draft year... but Burdi and Crochet, not so much. 

Edited May 16, 2023 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I can't wait for him to be traded.

His time for being the identity of the White Sox with Abreu gone won't be much of a tenure. 

The sad part is Sale Anderson and Abreu were the most notable scouting achievements of the last decade plus.

Not to mention Anderson's connections to the ACE program, Little League WS, RBI, summer camps, youth outreach...seems like everything is falling apart simultaneously. 

Now, it is essentially down to Robert and Burger. 

[joejoesox]

10 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I can't wait for him to be traded.

he's better than every FA for the next 3 years 

edit: and he might take a reasonable deal given his numbers decreasing 

Edited May 16, 2023 by joejoesox

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, joejoesox said:

he's better than every FA for the next 3 years 

Every free agent?  You must not know much about other players/teams

[joejoesox]

27 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Every free agent?  You must not know much about other players/teams

I only looked at the next 2 years lol, I'm just pissed off. 

Edited May 16, 2023 by joejoesox

[SouthSideGeorgia]

So with the thought that we have the following potential one-year assets in SP Giolito, C Grandal (playing better), BP Lopez (past performance?) and BP Middleton (discovery)… and I will just mention the remaining one-year players with no value probably in SS/2B Andrus and IF Alberto. 
 

And possible 2-yr assets in SS Tim Anderson, BP Hendriks, BP Graveman, SP Clevinger, and BP J. Kelly (improving).

Sox maybe have SP, BP, SS, and C to trade with.

 

Looking at the MLB contenders (minus the Central):

Miami needs SP, C, 3B, maybe SS

Arizona needs SP, 3B

Dodgers need SS, maybe SP

San Diego needs C

Mets need SP

Rangers need 3B, maybe SP (deGrom)

Astros C, maybe SP

Toronto needs Maybe SP

Rays C maybe

 

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, SouthSideGeorgia said:

So with the thought that we have the following potential one-year assets in SP Giolito, C Grandal (playing better), BP Lopez (past performance?) and BP Middleton (discovery)… and I will just mention the remaining one-year players with no value probably in SS/2B Andrus and IF Alberto. 
 

And possible 2-yr assets in SS Tim Anderson, BP Hendriks, BP Graveman, SP Clevinger, and BP J. Kelly (improving).

Sox maybe have SP, BP, SS, and C to trade with.

 

Looking at the MLB contenders (minus the Central):

Miami needs SP, C, 3B, maybe SS

Arizona needs SP, 3B

Dodgers need SS, maybe SP

San Diego needs C

Mets need SP

Rangers need 3B, maybe SP (deGrom)

Astros C, maybe SP

Toronto needs Maybe SP

Rays C maybe

 

Jerry won’t trade with the Mets out of hatred toward Cohen, and perhaps Houston is also nixed. That said, he can dump a lot of salary with the rest. 

(+/- MLB Trade Values)

1. Benintendi (-$26.2M), Bummer (-$7.1M), Hendriks (+$3.2M), Anderson (+$28.1M) to the Dodgers.
2. Grandal (-$5.5M) and Lopez ($2.4M) to Padres.
3. Lynn (+$7.6M) to Blue Jays.
4. Moncada (-$5.3M) and Giolito (+$20.8M) to Rangers.
5. Eloy (+$11.3M) and Clevinger (-$0.7) to Marlins.
6. Kelly (-$3.1M), Graveman (+$2.0M) to whoever.

Think they’ll keep Cease and Robert unless Jerry wants to flip a double bird to White Sox fans and MLB.

[TheFutureIsNear]

Does the payroll aspect of it even matter? This team isn’t signing major difference making free agents while Jerry is still alive so I’m not worried about saving payroll. Obviously this team is going nowhere and needs young assets though, so that should be the sole focus. 

[SoCalChiSox]

2 hours ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Does the payroll aspect of it even matter? This team isn’t signing major difference making free agents while Jerry is still alive so I’m not worried about saving payroll. Obviously this team is going nowhere and needs young assets though, so that should be the sole focus. 

You might not be worried about saving payroll but after paying above average payrolls for a fee years now with weaker than anticipated gate revenues and very little playoff TV money, Jerry's limited partners and Jerry himself are less than thrilled with the ROI so payroll is a legitimate issue and undoubtedly will need to be slashed significantly from their POV.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

This is what a closing window looks, sounds and feels like.