Trading One Year Assets is Inevitable. Maybe even 2-yr

[bmags]

26 minutes ago, spiderman said:

Yes, of course. Teams chasing a playoff spot routinely take on pitchers who haven't pitched basically all year, have questions about durability post chemotherapy and has an elbow injury....all while making $15M (est) a season.

Yes, of course!?

just last year the mariners traded for Matthew Boyd who had yet to pitch at that point of the season. He made their playoff roster despite not being a reliever.

The giants last year signed trevor rosenthal on July 21st  for $4.5 million then traded him 10 days later to the brewers for tristan peters. He never pitched that year and hadn't pitched since 2020.

 

[spiderman]

7 minutes ago, Quin said:

Ah yes, a sample size of one.

First time for everything! It's the new thing to do - acquire a former all-star coming off chemo and who now has an elbow inujury. Sames like a new competiive advantage.

Everyone loves Liam, Seems like a good guy. Teams aren't trading for him to be a good guy though in August if he hasn't been pitching with the issues he has.

Let's try and be realistic.

 

 

[spiderman]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

just last year the mariners traded for Matthew Boyd who had yet to pitch at that point of the season. He made their playoff roster despite not being a reliever.

The giants last year signed trevor rosenthal on July 21st  for $4.5 million then traded him 10 days later to the brewers for tristan peters. He never pitched that year and hadn't pitched since 2020.

 

Those aren't bad examples so I'll give you credit for finding a few.

I would say Boyd is due 5.2M on a 1 year deal and was rehabbing so there was some expectation he could pitch. The team probably wouldn't have been on the hook for much more of that $5.2M by August (vs. Hendricks is probably due around $5M more still at the end of July).

Rosenthal seems like a closer comp to Hendriks...coming off so not a bad comp.

Bottom line, I think Hendriks situation is even more dicey - chemo, injury and larger contract. Not a good combo.

Could Hendriks be traded? Yes. You found some comps. Is it still extremely unlikely given the current situation? Yes.

[zisk]

3-4 weeks ago I posted that the bullpen might be a strength going forward. It just shows to go you 

how fast things change. Oh, and how screwed we are. P.S. how drunk would a GM have to be, to

want to trade for Bummer or Kelly?

[CentralChamps21]

Trade no matter what. Eat as much money as necessary to get the best return: Grandal, Giolito, Lopez, Andrus, Middleton, Anderson, Kelly.

Trade only if you get a really good return and don't have to eat salary: Lynn, Hendriks, Clevinger, Jimenez

Build around: Cease, Kopech, Robert, Moncada, Colas, Vaughn

[ChiSox59]

9 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Trade no matter what. Eat as much money as necessary to get the best return: Grandal, Giolito, Lopez, Andrus, Middleton, Anderson, Kelly.

Trade only if you get a really good return and don't have to eat salary: Lynn, Hendriks, Clevinger, Jimenez

Build around: Cease, Kopech, Robert, Moncada, Colas, Vaughn

Think you gotta flip Anderson and Clevinger.  Clevinger is highly unlikely to be on the Sox next year (mutual options almost never get picked up by both sides). I see no reason why you wouldn't trade him if you can a) get something interesting; or b) dump all his $ including the buy-out if you'll actually deploy those dollars towards the 2024 roster.

There is just no point in trading TA right now - you're probably not getting anything interesting.  Sox are so much better off letting him bounce back next season and then moving him when Montgomery is actually ready to take over next summer.  TA will figure it out next season IMO - impending FA and the man wants to get paid.  

Lynn has become interesting. I doubt he pitches well enough to make that $18M option next season something the Sox will deeply consider.  But they're so short on SP that if he has a really good 2nd half, they actually might.  I think Lynn will actually be in demand the next few weeks, and you might be able to get a good prospect, especially if JR eats like $5M (keep dreamin', right?). 

The rest are spot on, though Moncada is more in the untradeable albatross territory at $29M due in 2024 as opposed to a core "build around" piece.   I'd probably add Graveman into the "trade if you can get a good return" category as well.  Have to imagine every contending club would have some interest.  I'd also trade Gregory Santos if they can turn him into an MLB ready SP prospect of note. 

Edited July 7, 2023 by ChiSox59

[Capn12]

35 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Trade no matter what. Eat as much money as necessary to get the best return: Grandal, Giolito, Lopez, Andrus, Middleton, Anderson, Kelly.

Trade only if you get a really good return and don't have to eat salary: Lynn, Hendriks, Clevinger, Jimenez

Build around: Cease, Kopech, Robert, Moncada, Colas, Vaughn

I've got some bad news. If this sell off is to happen, it has to include Cease and Moncada as well. The 3 OFers are the only selection of players that are safe, either because of a bad contract, or controllable for a decent price/timeframe.

[ChiSox59]

Biggest thing for me - I am just ready for some new blood.  This team so badly needs an attitude reset.  I was hopeful that Pedro would the guy that could flip that script, but honestly - he's just not.  I obviously don't know what he's like in the clubhouse behind closed doors, but in his interviews he seems like just about the biggest push over possible.  Guy is way too nice. 

Its such a sad state of affairs. Amazing the Sox just absolutely squandered this window.  

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Capn12 said:

I've got some bad news. If this sell off is to happen, it has to include Cease and Moncada as well. The 3 OFers are the only selection of players that are safe, either because of a bad contract, or controllable for a decent price/timeframe.

Moncada simply is not tradable.  Dude is owed $29M in 2024.  Sox would have to eat $20M+.  There is no way that is happening, and even if you want to pretend JR would allow it, nothing would make me more sick than paying Yoan $20M to play 140 games and put up a 4 WAR season elsewhere next season.  

I bet Benintendi is movable if Sox kicked in ~$6M to pro-rate his next 4 seasons down to $15M per.  Benintendi has more or less been the same player he's been 2019-2022 this season. I don't think Sox will trade him, but none of the Sox OFs are "bad contracts" IMO.  Eloy might not return you a ton, but he's absolutely moveable (if you want to consider him an OF). 

[Balta1701]

37 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Think you gotta flip Anderson and Clevinger.  Clevinger is highly unlikely to be on the Sox next year (mutual options almost never get picked up by both sides). I see no reason why you wouldn't trade him if you can a) get something interesting; or b) dump all his $ including the buy-out if you'll actually deploy those dollars towards the 2024 roster.

Between the offseason stuff and the fact that he dragged stuff into the season with minor but existing things that made this organization look bad, I have no idea why people think any other GM would trade for Clevinger. Any GM acquiring him is clearly going to get questions asked about his personal life during his press conference that the GM wouldn't want to answer, adding him would clearly be something most fanbases wouldn't like, and the GM would clearly be taking on a high risk player for very little chance of gain. If he did something to embarrass his new franchise, or actually hurt someone again, that could cost 29 GMs their jobs regardless of how their baseball team is performing.

In a GM role, I wouldn't take him for the minimum salary next year. Straight up not worth the downside risk. Let him go play in Korea. 

[Capn12]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Moncada simply is not tradable.  Dude is owed $29M in 2024.  Sox would have to eat $20M+.  There is no way that is happening, and even if you want to pretend JR would allow it, nothing would make me more sick than paying Yoan $20M to play 140 games and put up a 4 WAR season elsewhere next season.  

I bet Benintendi is movable if Sox kicked in ~$6M to pro-rate his next 4 seasons down to $15M per.  Benintendi has more or less been the same player he's been 2019-2022 this season. I don't think Sox will trade him, but none of the Sox OFs are "bad contracts" IMO.  Eloy might not return you a ton, but he's absolutely moveable (if you want to consider him an OF). 

I can't see anyone taking 64 million on, for Andrew Benintendi. That is the only thing I meant by 'bad'. He's going to be here. Robert is an obvious one, and Colas is under control for a while and has promise still. I don't consider Eloy an OFer at all. He is 27 this year, so keeping him around as the DH would work in some capacity.

Yoan has 29 million left guaranteed. I don't think the Sox would have to eat 20 at all, maybe half of that. If you can get out of 29 million in bad contracts for Mr. Glass, at a cost of 10 million, you do that.

Cease has 2 years of controlled arbitration left, and then he is gone regardless. Now is probably the best return you could get, with another team knowing there is some control there.

[ChiSox59]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Between the offseason stuff and the fact that he dragged stuff into the season with minor but existing things that made this organization look bad, I have no idea why people think any other GM would trade for Clevinger. Any GM acquiring him is clearly going to get questions asked about his personal life during his press conference that the GM wouldn't want to answer, adding him would clearly be something most fanbases wouldn't like, and the GM would clearly be taking on a high risk player for very little chance of gain. If he did something to embarrass his new franchise, or actually hurt someone again, that could cost 29 GMs their jobs regardless of how their baseball team is performing.

In a GM role, I wouldn't take him for the minimum salary next year. Straight up not worth the downside risk. Let him go play in Korea. 

I hear ya, but Clevinger was cleared by the league and teams are absolutely desperate for SP.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him traded IF he comes back and makes a couple decent starts after the ASG.  

2 minutes ago, Capn12 said:

I can't see anyone taking 64 million on, for Andrew Benintendi. That is the only thing I meant by 'bad'. He's going to be here. Robert is an obvious one, and Colas is under control for a while and has promise still. I don't consider Eloy an OFer at all. He is 27 this year, so keeping him around as the DH would work in some capacity.

Yoan has 29 million left guaranteed. I don't think the Sox would have to eat 20 at all, maybe half of that. If you can get out of 29 million in bad contracts for Mr. Glass, at a cost of 10 million, you do that.

Cease has 2 years of controlled arbitration left, and then he is gone regardless. Now is probably the best return you could get, with another team knowing there is some control there.

I don't think there is anyway a team would trade for Moncada AND pay him $19M next season.  $10M I could see someone betting on the talent in a walk year.  Of course this is all assuming these discussions happened in the offseason, if it happened the next month or so there is another $7-8M that needs to be accounted for. If you think Benintendi is stuck on the Sox at 4/$64M, not sure how Moncada is movable at 1/$29M. 

[Capn12]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I hear ya, but Clevinger was cleared by the league and teams are absolutely desperate for SP.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him traded IF he comes back and makes a couple decent starts after the ASG.  

I don't think there is anyway a team would trade for Moncada AND pay him $19M next season.  $10M I could see someone betting on the talent in a walk year.  Of course this is all assuming these discussions happened in the offseason, if it happened the next month or so there is another $7-8M that needs to be accounted for. If you think Benintendi is stuck on the Sox at 4/$64M, not sure how Moncada is movable at 1/$29M. 

Moncada is movable at 1/$19m, which is what I mentioned. Moncada still has that dirty little word "potential" to many baseball minds. And potential is the most dangerous thing to bet money on. He needs to not be in Chicago anymore, and the FO needs to admit that the Sale trade was a loss. As for Beni, I'm pretty sure no other teams out there need a lightly powered, decent but not great OFer, locked in for 4 more years. Those are pretty much available every year in the offseason.

 

All of this is probably an exercise in futility anyways, because Rick Hahn is either too stupid, or too proud, to admit this entire rebuild was a shining failure. Instead of doing the right moves, this org will try to go find a couple of C rate arms, and stay in the AL Central race.

[spiderman]

2 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Trade no matter what. Eat as much money as necessary to get the best return: Grandal, Giolito, Lopez, Andrus, Middleton, Anderson, Kelly.

Trade only if you get a really good return and don't have to eat salary: Lynn, Hendriks, Clevinger, Jimenez

Build around: Cease, Kopech, Robert, Moncada, Colas, Vaughn

I think the White Sox would be ok to pick up some salary for Lynn and Clevinger if they still saved some money. I don't think there's any chance though they would get anything of value in return other than $$$ savings.

Building around Kopech and Moncada is already asking for issues. Colas is not really someone I would say you build around either - he may end up being a good RF. Really, outside of Cease and Robert, the rest of the team needs a makeover.

 

[T R U]

Im gaining some more optimism for trading Lance Lynn

Last 5 starts 4.40 ERA 30 IP and 47 K's and he has control beyond this season at a reasonable price if desired to keep him.

Not great, but at least he doesn't look like a guy who should be released anymore.

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, T R U said:

Im gaining some more optimism for trading Lance Lynn

Last 5 starts 4.40 ERA 30 IP and 47 K's and he has control beyond this season at a reasonable price if desired to keep him.

Not great, but at least he doesn't look like a guy who should be released anymore.

Some team will want him as a back end guy. As someone said yesterday, teams may prefer a veteran than their 7th/8th best option from minors that some teams are on.

[T R U]

6 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Some team will want him as a back end guy. As someone said yesterday, teams may prefer a veteran than their 7th/8th best option from minors that some teams are on.

And it only helps if he continues to have good starts leading up to the deadline

[Snopek]

3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Biggest thing for me - I am just ready for some new blood.  This team so badly needs an attitude reset.  I was hopeful that Pedro would the guy that could flip that script, but honestly - he's just not.  I obviously don't know what he's like in the clubhouse behind closed doors, but in his interviews he seems like just about the biggest push over possible.  Guy is way too nice. 

Its such a sad state of affairs. Amazing the Sox just absolutely squandered this window.  

Put another way, I'm ready for new guys to be mad at.

[South Side Hit Men]

19 minutes ago, T R U said:

And it only helps if he continues to have good starts leading up to the deadline

They really need to skip Lynn in Atlanta and take their chances with the hapless Mets (Start Lucas, Cease and Kopech in Atlanta). If Lynn didn't get pissed at the guy bunting on him, and the Sox didn't wake up in the Top 3rd Lynn may not have gotten out of the third inning against Anaheim.

I would slot Lynn fifth after Clevinger, catch the Mets #5 starter, also lets him pitch at home vs. the Cubs instead of in Minnesota. Hahn can then trade him before (or after) his July 30th start vs. Cleveland. Sox should trade all three FAs (Lynn, Giolito and their 5th starter guy), get low cost inning eater guys back (or claim) like Touki.

[ChiSox59]

9 minutes ago, Snopek said:

Put another way, I'm ready for new guys to be mad at.

Touche

[baseball_gal_aly]

Jerry's BFF Bob said that Jerry's takeaway from Hahn's failure is that rebuilds are bad....if that's the case then we're truly fucked. 

Edited July 7, 2023 by baseballgalaly

[pcq]

On 7/6/2023 at 10:39 AM, Balta1701 said:

Robert is so valuable that it's hard to see the White Sox getting anyone to offer a fair return for him. 4.5 years of control for an all star is just nuts.

Personally, I think the only real solution to getting out of the hole the White Sox are in is to tear it down at least to the Cease level, because their system is so weak that they cannot replace the pieces (G) that they are losing to FA. The only way they're going to make a dent in the next 2 years is to make use of assets like Cease to fill holes. 

But, I doubt the White Sox will do anything other than play for 2nd place in a weak central division. Hell, I'll be surprised if they actually move anyone, since doing so is the right decision.

Only an iddyeott would trade Robert . Sox diarrhea.

[caulfield12]

On 7/7/2023 at 6:02 AM, bmags said:

just last year the mariners traded for Matthew Boyd who had yet to pitch at that point of the season. He made their playoff roster despite not being a reliever.

The giants last year signed trevor rosenthal on July 21st  for $4.5 million then traded him 10 days later to the brewers for tristan peters. He never pitched that year and hadn't pitched since 2020.

 

Doesn't usually go well with starters, either.

https://friarsonbase.com/2018/11/30/san-diego-padres-acquire-garrett-richards/

[greg775]

3 hours ago, baseballgalaly said:

Jerry's BFF Bob said that Jerry's takeaway from Hahn's failure is that rebuilds are bad....if that's the case then we're truly fucked. 

It makes me so mad the Sox did a full rebuild. This organization right now has as dismal a future as any time I can remember. Just as in 2005 after winning it all it looked like the future was bright as ever.

So sad. So many players worth nothing via trade value right now. I have no idea what Sox management should do. 

If anybody wants them I'd trade Moncada, Grandal, Lopez, Gio, Middleton asap. Nobody is gonna want Kelly, Andrus or Middleton however. That's a start. Hahn must have a plan to get out of this mess which looks like a long time before Sox are winning again,

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

It makes me so mad the Sox did a full rebuild. This organization right now has as dismal a future as any time I can remember. Just as in 2005 after winning it all it looked like the future was bright as ever.

So sad. So many players worth nothing via trade value right now. I have no idea what Sox management should do. 

If anybody wants them I'd trade Moncada, Grandal, Lopez, Gio, Middleton asap. Nobody is gonna want Kelly, Andrus or Middleton however. That's a start. Hahn must have a plan to get out of this mess which looks like a long time before Sox are winning again,

Your plan as a fan should be to take care of yourself, exercise, watch your diet, see your doctor regularly and hope to outlive current ownership.

Even giving Hahn the benefit of the doubt it hard to have any real plan when you don't know how long JR is going to be around (and I'm not trying to be snarky or wish bad upon him, but human nature is what it is). At 86 he's not going to change his beliefs that he has had for 40+ years as owner.