Kopech turns to rubble. (Fangraphs article)

[joejoesox]

yikes 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kopech-turns-to-rubble/

Quote

Which brings us to problem no. 3. He’s still walking a ton of batters — 14.6% of opponents, which is the highest among qualified starters by almost a full percentage point — but he’s not keeping the ball in the yard anymore.

 

Quote

Kopech’s HR/FB ratio is now up to 20.7%, third-highest among qualified starters. (Lynn is no. 2 on the list, so maybe this is all about the White Sox switching out their baseballs for racquetballs or something.) That’s bad enough out of context — 12 dingers off 58 fly balls. But few pitchers have a heavier fly ball bias than Kopech; he’s has the fifth-highest FB% among starting pitchers, and the fifth-lowest GB/FB ratio. So when one in five fly balls leaves the yard, it’s a problem.

 

The fact that Katz hasn't been fired yet is actually remarkable. 

Edited May 16, 2023 by joejoesox

[chitownsportsfan]

Honestly he might be one of the 15-20% or so that never really bounces back from TJS. You add in all his lower body injuries the last couple years, his questionable mental makeup (at least for performing on the baseball field) and it's yet another reminder of TINSSAAPP.

[4uckOffCommieScum]

It’s because he cut his hair. It transformed him from golden god to superdork overnight

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, joejoesox said:

yikes 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kopech-turns-to-rubble/

 

 

The fact that Katz hasn't been fired yet is actually remarkable. 

Once Giolito leaves he very well may be fired.

[whitesoxwinner]

5 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Once Giolito leaves he very well may be fired.

Giolito is gone at the deadline why would they wait?

[ThirdGen]

4 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Once Giolito leaves he very well may be fired.

If Giolito is really 100% likely to be gone one way or another, I don't understand why Katz is still here. They should be looking for a pitching coach that can help the rest of the staff not pandering to Lucas.

[The Kids Can Play]

12 minutes ago, whitesoxwinner said:

Giolito is gone at the deadline why would they wait?

Exactly and let's face it, other than the initial off-season miraculous turnaround Katz did in resurrecting Giolito, he hasn't done s%*# since that big year in getting Lucas back on track. Actually all of Katz's starters other than Clevinger, who he didn't have before...have all fallen off drastically. 

[South Side Hit Men]

• Kopech's one OK season was in 2022 under Katz.
• Lucas worked with Katz before his 2019 season, had solid seasons in 2021 and now 2023, also under Katz.
• Cease had his first good season in 2021 and first great one in 2022, both under Katz.
• Rodon finally put it all together in 2021, under guess who.

But sure, fire Katz. Sounds like a Rick Hahn plan. Good luck with that.

[joejoesox]

@South Side Hit Men I'm fine with giving Katz credit for Giolito, but not those other guys

[Quin]

1 hour ago, The Kids Can Play said:

Exactly and let's face it, other than the initial off-season miraculous turnaround Katz did in resurrecting Giolito, he hasn't done s%*# since that big year in getting Lucas back on track. Actually all of Katz's starters other than Clevinger, who he didn't have before...have all fallen off drastically. 

I mean, Cease is having a rough start this season, but did you not watch him last year?

Katz should definitely be on the hot seat, but like, Gio, Rodon and Cease all had great turnarounds under him

[KipWellsFan]

44 minutes ago, joejoesox said:

@South Side Hit Men I'm fine with giving Katz credit for Giolito, but not those other guys

Sorry... why?

[ThirdGen]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

• Kopech's one OK season was in 2022 under Katz.
• Lucas worked with Katz before his 2019 season, had solid seasons in 2021 and now 2023, also under Katz.
• Cease had his first good season in 2021 and first great one in 2022, both under Katz.
• Rodon finally put it all together in 2021, under guess who.

But sure, fire Katz. Sounds like a Rick Hahn plan. Good luck with that.

Kopech, Giolito and Cease were all considered top prospects.  Taking a full season to get Giolito back on track not once, but twice already in his career isn't really anything to brag about, considering his talent level.

Rodon put it together because he didn't get hurt.  He looked damn good before Katz got here for the brief periods that he pitched healthy.

Kopech is what he is.  But development at the big league level is non existent.  Not a win for Katz, but probably not a loss either.

Until recently Cease has been Katz's one big success story.  That isn't enough.  Coop may have been a jerk and outlasted his welcome, but he certainly didn't have only one success story every three + years.

[The Kids Can Play]

1 hour ago, Quin said:

I mean, Cease is having a rough start this season, but did you not watch him last year?

Katz should definitely be on the hot seat, but like, Gio, Rodon and Cease all had great turnarounds under him

I did watch Cease last year for every single start and he was awesome. In fact I was at the ballpark for two of his great outings. Having said that, since so many of Dylan's starts were so solid last year, we have to assume he made the big jump to being a #1 stud starter and last year wasn't an aberration.

Btw, last year was last year and when you reach greatness as Dylan did, you are expected to take it even to a higher level or at least maintain it. You are not suppose to go backwards. If you do...then early on the pitching coach better correct it quickly.

However Dylan has struggled this year and its too many starts to be just an off game here and there. My point is, if Katz was such a great pitching coach, he should have been able to work closer with Dylan already to get the mistakes corrected and get him back to 2022 pitching form.

Great pitchers sometimes struggle early in the season. However they usually have some good catchers and pitching coaches that can help tweak and fix the small mistakes. In this case Katz needed to Dylan get back to being that Cy Young runner-up. 

So yes, all of Katz starters have fallen off outside of Clevinger, which doesn't count.

In baseball you are not graded as being a great pitching coach because you did it one year for the pitchers you mentioned. You need to continue the success in all future years and not make it look like you got lucky one time with that pitcher. 

I sure hope you aren't trying to defend Katz that he is a good pitching coach!

Edited May 16, 2023 by The Kids Can Play

[The Kids Can Play]

3 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Honestly he might be one of the 15-20% or so that never really bounces back from TJS. You add in all his lower body injuries the last couple years, his questionable mental makeup (at least for performing on the baseball field) and it's yet another reminder of TINSSAAPP.

I don't think Kopech struggling is because he didn't come back from TJS successfully. I think it's more if not all, because of his mental makeup you accurately suggested that hurts him. It also doesn't help he has terrible catchers that don't call better pitch sequences, as well as a crappy pitching coach not effectively working with Kopech to fix his flawed mechanics or tweak his slider and curveball. 

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

• Kopech's one OK season was in 2022 under Katz.
• Lucas worked with Katz before his 2019 season, had solid seasons in 2021 and now 2023, also under Katz.
• Cease had his first good season in 2021 and first great one in 2022, both under Katz.
• Rodon finally put it all together in 2021, under guess who.

But sure, fire Katz. Sounds like a Rick Hahn plan. Good luck with that.

• Team pitching WAR in 2023 is 1.5, good for 26th in baseball.
• 4.11 BB/9 is good for 29th in baseball.
• Team 5.55 ERA is good for 29th in baseball.
• Team FIP of 5.04 is good for 29th in baseball.

But sure, keep Katz. This is fine and nothing is on fire.

...The good news is he will be an excellent scapegoat.

[Timmy U]

I am fine keeping Katz or firing Katz because the whole organization from the very top has to go. If they replace KW, Hahn, Haber , etc and the new team at the top wants to fire/keep Katz, I think that will be a great decision. But thinking that changing the pitching coach is going to turn this season around… we’ll, I think that is insufficient.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

I am fine keeping Katz or firing Katz because the whole organization from the very top has to go. If they replace KW, Hahn, Haber , etc and the new team at the top wants to fire/keep Katz, I think that will be a great decision. But thinking that changing the pitching coach is going to turn this season around… we’ll, I think that is insufficient.

Yeah...

By results and how unprepared they are I'd say fire the pitching coach. Sox treat FO/management personnel as stronger commitments than marriage. Katz was good for his first few years wrangling the stuffy but uncommandy arms Hahn had collected. It's not working now. Find someone else.

But, also don't fire him and just let them continue to be dumb together, what does it matter.

[Polar Bear]

Click bait is all that article is.  They ignore his mlb leading like 6 games of 4+ innings and 1 hit or less (most before the injury).  They also ignore that 2 of his last 3 games have been 6 innings 1 hit and 4.2 innings and 1 hit.  

Kopech is fine and looking better and better each start.  

[South Side Hit Men]

42 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

• Team pitching WAR in 2023 is 1.5, good for 26th in baseball.
• 4.11 BB/9 is good for 29th in baseball.
• Team 5.55 ERA is good for 29th in baseball.
• Team FIP of 5.04 is good for 29th in baseball.

But sure, keep Katz. This is fine and nothing is on fire.

...The good news is he will be an excellent scapegoat.

I’m fine if a complete organization rebuild occurred, as qualified baseball people brought in a quality candidate. That has never, nor will ever happen under Jerry Reinsdorf.

“Gave proof through the night

Darryl Boston was still there..”

Lucas hired Katz because Hahn didn’t have any ideas, and Tony’s guy didn’t want the job. Still think he is far better than anyone willing to take the job under these circumstances (dying owner, incompetent GM/Manager, weak roster and prospects, weak pay).

1 hour ago, ThirdGen said:

Until recently Cease has been Katz's one big success story.  That isn't enough.  Coop may have been a jerk and outlasted his welcome, but he certainly didn't have only one success story every three + years.

Tell me exactly who did Cooper “fix” over his last 16 seasons with the White Sox?

Sale and Quintana didn’t need fixing. If Sale didn’t tell Kenny to go f*** himself, he’d likely be bullpen fodder his entire career here.

Cooper was Kenny’s clubhouse snitch, got his extension behind Ozzie’s back which is why Ozzie left with two games left once he found out about it. That is what he did, and little else, since 2006. He was pitching Daryl Boston.

[Snopek]

24 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

Click bait is all that article is.  They ignore his mlb leading like 6 games of 4+ innings and 1 hit or less (most before the injury).  They also ignore that 2 of his last 3 games have been 6 innings 1 hit and 4.2 innings and 1 hit.  

Kopech is fine and looking better and better each start.  

You mean those two starts that he had 11 walks in? We have different definitions of "fine and looking better and better".

[Highland]

Katz or no Katz, the Kopech situation was botched from the start. Maybe he can develop, but he always had control problems. Still needs to learn to be a pitcher, and in reality, he hasn't pitched all that much.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Highland said:

Katz or no Katz, the Kopech situation was botched from the start. Maybe he can develop, but he always had control problems. Still needs to learn to be a pitcher, and in reality, he hasn't pitched all that much.

He was really starting to get there pre-injury in 2018, he had a month or two where his walk rate plummeted.

Then he had the injury, sat out a year...and then they stuck him in the bullpen, so he never had a chance to rebuild his routine and muscle memory and find his control against minor leaguers. 

[oldsox]

The Sale trade did not do him any favors.

[joejoesox]

1 hour ago, Timmy U said:

I am fine keeping Katz or firing Katz because the whole organization from the very top has to go. If they replace KW, Hahn, Haber , etc and the new team at the top wants to fire/keep Katz, I think that will be a great decision. But thinking that changing the pitching coach is going to turn this season around… we’ll, I think that is insufficient.

Katz was great, His Rosetta Stone was called Spider-Tac

[Polar Bear]

19 minutes ago, Snopek said:

You mean those two starts that he had 11 walks in? We have different definitions of "fine and looking better and better".

It's who he is.  Vs free swinging teams he will walk less and K more.  Vs more patient teams he will walk more and K less.  In all cases the stuff is/has been unhittable the farther out from his surgeries he gets 

If he can dial it back a little and add in a split/sinker/cutter than he may have Ace quality with his stuff and his command.  Unfortunately where he is now is max a max effort delivery that lends itself to being wild at times and results in walks.  

A few tweaks and he will become the Ace if the staff bc Cease and Gio are fading fast while he is getting better and better